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How the Pandemic Stands to Impact Property Taxes in PA

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

School districts in Pennsylvania are working to set their budgets for the 2020-2021 school year, and are potentially facing a $1 billion loss in local revenue as a result of coronavirus, according to the Pennsylvania Association of School Board Officials (PASBO) study. Even if the economy recovers quickly, and there’s no predicting if it will, that still leaves schools with a predicted loss of $850 in revenue.

So how will they make up for the gap? Naturally, the focus shifts to property taxes. Raising property taxes is never a desired solution, but it’s among the most obvious and effective. While some school districts in the capital region are not considering a property tax increase, and instead choosing to cut programs, contract out services to reduce spending, or drawing upon reserves, many others say a tax increase is unavoidable.

Pennsylvania is not unique in this dilemma, just last month Nashville approved a 34% property tax increase to account for revenue loss as a result of COVID-19. For a property appraised at $250,000, that would mean an increase of about $666.25 per year. This tax increase, compounded by any other financial hardships property owners have faced this year is a significant stressor.

It’s important to note that in Pennsylvania that the Act 1 index caps how much school property tax rates can rise. It takes into account the average statewide weekly wage, which is likely to be lower in wake of this pandemic. To go above the index requires state or voter approval.

School districts across the Commonwealth are having their budgetary discussions now. As property owners, it’s important to stay aware of what’s being proposed in case it stands to impact the tax rate on your residential or commercial property. Let’s take a look at a few local school districts to see how they are addressing their budgetary issues and whether this could result in a property tax increase in your township.

Camp Hill School District

The Camp Hill School Board is recommending a 3% tax increase to support its preliminary $24.7 million budget for 2020-21. By going with a tax increase of that size, it left the district facing a $403,458 revenue shortfall as opposed to one that would be double that amount if the tax rate was frozen. The district anticipates a post-COVID-19 loss of nearly $431,000 in local and state revenue so it trimmed its proposed spending by $116,740 to adjust for that. It is looking to use some of its $6.2 million unassigned reserves to bring the budget into balance.

Central Dauphin School District

Central Dauphin School Board says they are looking at every possibility including cutting nearly $300,000 from their budget without giving up things that would pose difficulties for students. The board must next consider approving a preliminary $204.2 million budget that still has a $2.4 million revenue shortfall to close to bring it into balance. The options laid on the table for the board include a mix of ideas that range from no tax increase and dipping into reserves to raising property taxes by the 3.1% allowable tax increase under the Act 1 index.

Cumberland Valley School District

Cumberland Valley School Board feels that a property tax freeze is not feasible for the district. The district anticipates a $3.1 million loss in local revenue, $300,000 in lost interest earnings, and a projected budget deficit of $2.4 million. Without the additional $2.3 million in revenue the district would receive from an Act 1 index allowable property tax increase of 2.6%, the deficit grows to almost $5 million.

Derry Township School District

While no tax increase is expected in the Derry Township School District, it is going to be a challenging year. And Derry Township is in a particularly unique situation. The amusement tax brings in about $1.5 million annually, and with Hersheypark and its related venues being closed due to the coronavirus, that could be a big hit to their bottom line. How they plan to make up for the delta is still in discussion.

Lower Dauphin School District

Lower Dauphin School District has also been dealt a uniquely challenging hand. Not only are they dealing with the financial fallout of the coronavirus like everyone else, but they’re also the school district that’s home to Three Mile Island Nuclear Generation Station. The shutdown of TMI is a loss of roughly $300,000 in payments in addition to taxes that the plant once made. Despite the loss, the school board already approved a budget on Monday, and they were able to make ends meet without raising taxes by borrowing about $4 million from their reserve funds.

Northern York County School District

Northern York was already looking at a $1.5 million shortfall pre-CVOID, which had to do with health insurance increases, pension payments and other increases. Now with the expected loss of close to $1 million in earned income tax and less revenue from realty transfer taxes because of the hold put on real estate activity, that gap grows closer to $3.5 million. To bridge this gap, the district does not plan to increase property taxes, at least yet. Instead, they announced they would cut costs by moving to full day kindergarten which reduces midday transportation. They will also put a hold on any construction or renovation, and outsource its instructional aid duties to an educational agency.

West Shore School District

West Shore School District is anticipating a significant reduction in revenues related to earned income tax. As a result, a budget with a property-tax increase is currently on the table. For West Shore’s Cumberland County communities, it’s a 1.63 percent tax increase, and it’s an increase of 1.16 percent in York County. The budget also relies on $1 million from the school district’s reserves.

How would an increase in property taxes impact you? If you own commercial or residential real estate, this will affect you directly. And even if you don’t own real estate, there will still be a trickledown effect. If you rent your home or place of business, landlords may be forced to increase rent to pass off some of these costs. Or businesses may increase the cost of their goods or services to help balance their own books.

There are many unknowns in our community, government, and economy right now. What we do know is that everyone has endured change and hardship to some degree as the result of the pandemic. School districts, just like all of us, are looking hard for solutions that will keep them afloat while having the least negative impact on teachers, students, and the community.

What is your opinion on increasing property taxes to help school districts make up for financial losses due to COVID-19? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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What Does ‘Back to Business’ Look Like Post-COVID? – Part II

Posted on July 13, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

This is Part II in a two-part series where we look at how commercial spaces must adapt and implement new policies to adhere to social distancing guidelines. We interviewed Matt Luttrell, Partner at ThYNK Design LLC for his input on this timely and important topic. In Part I we focused on the issue of square-feet per person requirements in buildings and how this will limit capacity. We also discussed how HVAC systems might be used to create fresh air and healthier work environments. Now, we’re going to shift our focus to other tools and tactics commercial spaces can use to keep the spread of COVID-19 down. Keep reading to find out what these are.

Omni: Aside from greatly adjusting the layout according to social distancing guidelines of commercial spaces, what other changes or precautions could be taken to adhere to revised distancing guidelines in a more efficient and effective manner?

ML: When possible, the ability to predict and schedule activities and users can be a great tool for optimizing the use of space. In K-12 educational environments, the circulation of students and faculty is highly planned and will become even more necessary to ensure that occupant use and density do not overwhelm resources and create unhealthy situations. Likewise, it appears that restaurants will need to enhance and promote reservation systems to manage seating and staff while using delivering and curb-side services for extended patron options. More movie theaters will use on-line reservations and pre-selection of seats. These commonplace practices can have long-term as well as short term benefits and will most likely become more prevalent in our daily experiences.

Omni: You talk about the importance of scheduling as a way for schools and businesses to manage capacity and social distancing. But what about when this is not an option?

ML: When scheduling or reservations are not an option, such as in retail or grocery store settings, human or automated occupancy counters are being used to limit the number of users at any given time. Employing staff to do this can be quite costly, and if we’re honest, not a desirable job. For automated options, there are many venders, such as Sensource, that provide hardware and software that can easily be set up and adapted to an organization or business’s specific needs.

Omni: Beyond limiting capacity in a space, what other precautions can businesses take?

ML: Thermal scanning of customers or guests determines if individuals have an elevated body temperature so that buildings can prevent a person showing symptoms from entering. This is another effective mechanism for controlling the spread of virus. There are readily available systems for small businesses that range from a $100 handheld scanner for checking individual temperatures to group and line screening systems for approximately $5,000. TEquipment.net provides an array of options for consideration.

Additionally, masks seem to be one of the more accessible and more effective tools for moving forward. While they are not 100% effective, it appears that they may significantly reduce transmission via air, which seems to be the primary source. No one seems to want to quantify how effective masks are, but based on common sense, the practice appears warranted. Given the ease, minimal costs, and purported effectiveness, masks seem to be the most readily available option for reopening our society without inundating our current resources.

No system is fail-proof, but simplicity and redundancy are always good principles when evaluating options.

Omni: In your opinion, can common areas like waiting rooms, break rooms, or lobbies realistically adhere to new CDC social distancing guidelines?

ML: These spaces are pinch points within every building. While they are designed to accommodate the building’s occupancy load, they are not intended to minimize interactions; they are generally shared spaces designed for efficiency and ease of use. Accordingly, each type of space has its challenges and should be evaluated for options, but these spaces are inherent barriers without actively implementing changes to a buildings configuration and/or user actions.

Reconfiguration can be a costly endeavor, especially if it is a short-term solution. Repurposing spaces may be a solution that allows for relief. Several areas traditionally found in a building, such as conference rooms and breakrooms, can be repurposed to address immediate needs. Breakrooms may be better utilized as an office or workspace for a limited number of employees, while employees are required to eat at their desks. Conference rooms could also become workspaces, or often, these rooms are located close to or adjoin lobbies/ waiting rooms and can become an extension of the room. These are potential short-term solutions and should involve an evaluation of HVAC, lighting, power, egress, and other potential code implications.

Omni Realty Group thanks Matt Luttrell for sharing this valuable insight to help us to better understand the challenges many business owners face when it comes to renovating and recreating commercial real estate space to accommodate social distancing and sanitization both now, and for what many feel will be long into the future. If you missed Part I of this two-part series, be sure to check it out here.

Do you own or work in a commercial space – office, retail, or industrial? What do you see being the biggest challenge related to COVID-19 required changes? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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What Does ‘Back to Business’ Look Like Post-COVID? – Part I

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

Based on the continually evolving data and recommendations, the efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 while pursuing a more normalized personal and professional life has focused on separation, isolation, and decontamination. As things currently stand, it appears that the only potential remedy to return to a pre-COVID-19 environment is the development of a vaccine. In the meantime, business owners and professionals are faced with living with less than ideal situations. Some wish to persist with maximum isolation and separation; however, it appears that the majority have deemed the consequences of shutting down all interactions beyond a household as untenable, and have demanded that measures be developed to support an acceptable level of social and professional interaction. What is acceptable? Well, that is a matter of individual choice.

To help provide some insight on what options exist for businesses to re-open their doors to employees and the public we asked Matt Luttrell, Partner at ThYNK Design LLC, to weigh in. ThYNK Design, LLC is a modern architectural firm pursuing a better way to develop, deliver, and celebrate the immense value of good design. Given his experience and background, Matt shares some valuable information to help frame and evaluate some of the inherent issues in the built environment that conflict with the proposed social distancing guidelines. Here’s how he responded when Omni Realty Group asked him several key questions.

Omni: What industries are likely to be most impacted by the proposed revised building code distancing guidelines?

ML: The restaurant industry may face the greatest short-term and long-term challenges. The proposed social distancing guidelines directly conflict with historic planning principles as well as the industry’s business model. However, each restaurant, business, and building should be evaluated to determine what resources are available to develop an effective mitigation plan.

Omni: How will the introduction of new social distancing constraints impact the long-term viability of most existing buildings?

ML: With the recognition that the design and development of the built environment is in response to many considerations, including; user needs, business models, and building code requirements, the introduction of new constraints that directly conflict with established practices will challenge the long-term viability of most buildings. These challenges focus on developing an environment that effectively manages occupant density, frequency, and duration of interactions, surface contaminants, and air quality. To effectively manage these challenges, an inventory and understanding of the available resources and building configuration are required. These can include: building area, sizes of rooms, type, and capacity of HVAC system, operable windows, number of entry/ exit points from a space or building, quantity, and location of shared facilities (toilet rooms, break rooms, waiting areas) and flex spaces.

Each resource can impact the effectiveness of a mitigation plan and should be carefully considered, but the most significant challenge is how to overcome the area requirements per person. Expanding a building, reconfiguring interior spaces, and adding entry and exit points are not readily done. In addition to the expense, the required time frame for approvals and construction is prohibitive.

Omni: Can you provide more information to paint a picture of the potential magnitude of the problem you’re describing?

ML: The proposed social-distancing guidelines recommend a density of 1 person per 113 SF (area of circle with a 6′ radius) whereas standard planning practices include densities that are 2x to 10x higher.

Following are the maximum area allowances, per the 2015 International Building Code, for several of the more common functions included in buildings:

Assembly spaces:

-with concentrated chairs (lecture halls, waiting rooms, etc.):
- One occupant per 7 SF
-standing room (lobbies, areas holding events such as cocktail hours):
- One occupant per 5 SF
-unconcentrated chairs and tables (restaurants, breakrooms, open office)
- One occupant per 15 SF

Business areas: One occupant per 100 SF

Classroom: One occupant per 20 SF

Exercise rooms: One occupant per 50 SF

Retail: One occupant per 60 SF

Compared to the recommended 113 SF (area of a circle with a 6 radius) per occupant you begin to see the potential implications. As an example, a worst-case analysis would provide the following reductions:

Example 1: For a restaurant with a dining area design occupancy of 100 (15 SF per occupant) the occupancy would be potentially reduced to 13 occupants at 113 SF per occupant. This is a worst case and does not consider that you may have a family grouped so that they are separated from other family groupings.

Example 2: A classroom designed for 25 occupants could have a reduced occupancy of 5.

As indicated by these examples, if we want to remain economically viable, then social distancing cannot be the only criteria for determining the use of a space.

Omni: How do commercial HAVC systems currently play into the issue, whether standing to hurt or help air sanitization and circulation in shared commercial spaces?

ML: For most people, the quality of a HVAC system is based on the system’s ability to control the temperature of a space. Only in the relatively recent past (10-20 years) has the industry focused on delivering improved air quality, increased fresh air, controlled humidity, and energy conservation within the typical system. Each of these four items should be evaluated as a potential resource or barrier for developing a mitigation plan. In the current environment, an incorrect understanding or use could potentially have disastrous consequences and it is highly recommended that a contractor or engineer be consulted to determine the full capability of your system.

Omni: Could you give a bit deeper into the impact of air quality on comfort and health?

ML: Air quality may be one of the more challenging issues when it comes to controlling a virus. One of the more prevalent components for managing air quality is the filter. The systems air-filter is rated according to the level of filtration needed/ desired for a given environment. According to Grainger.com, “What Is MERV Rating? Air Filter Rating Chart,” most commercial and residential buildings will have filters that range from a MERV 5 to MERV 12. A MERV 5 rating filters particles down to a 10.0 micron level and a 12 filters down to 1.0 micron level. A MERV 12 or higher, which is not very common outside of critical healthcare and clean-room environments, effectively filters pollen, dust mites, mold, and even cement dust.

However, according to various publications, the coronavirus average size is 0.125 microns. While this is substantially smaller than the particles that are filtered, it does not mean that these particles freely pass. This is due to a variety of reasons, but one of them has to do with humidity. Dry air allows particles to float freely/ unattached, while humid air promotes particles binding together. The larger particles are more readily filtered or trapped. A similar concept applies to our lungs. When we breathe air that is too dry it reduces the amount of mucus within our bodies; thus, part of our human filtration system is compromised.

Omni: Is there any research to back this up?

ML: A study conducted in Sydney, Australia indicates that the reduced humidity conditions associated with winter weather can lead to an increase in COVID-19 cases. The researchers identified that a 1% decrease in humidity could lead to a 6% increase in cases. So, what is the ideal relative humidity? In this case, it appears that the industry recommended RH of 40% to 60% corresponds with the current recommendations for mitigating COVID-19. Too little humidity and the filtration system is compromised, too much humidity and mold growth is supported.

Omni: So then, how is indoor humidity controlled?

ML: A/C systems are primarily designed for thermal control. Thus, most A/C systems control humidity by circulating warm, moist air over cold coils, which leads to condensation, which is collected and drained away. The key here is ensuring that the AC cycles the proper amount of time to allow the warm air to be adequately circulated over the coils and the moisture removed. This process relies on the A/C unit being correctly sized. This involves a variety of factors, including the number of people in a facility.

In essence, if a system is sized to provide cooling for 100 people, it accounts for the amount of energy/ heat and moisture generated by 100 people. Accordingly, it will work to get the temperature where it needs to be while accounting for the amount of humidity that needs to be removed. If the occupant load is reduced to 50, then the system is effectively oversized and will get the air to the desired temperature before it has a chance to remove the humidity. This leads to RH levels that can far exceed the recommended upper level of 60%.

Omni: What connection do you see between fresh air and healthier work spaces?

ML: Fresh air, or air that is not recycled, has become an integral component in the development of an HVAC system that supports overall occupant health. Sick building syndrome (SBS) developed following efforts to close-up buildings to establish greater energy efficiency, and a quick search will indicate that the SBS symptoms are frighteningly similar to COVID-19. The introduction of fresh air into a HVAC system does two things: it dilutes the air and pollutants, and it helps to pressurize a building. Diluting air is readily understood, but proper pressurization is equally as important. If a building is not properly pressurized, then air can start to stratify and pockets of dead-air form. This can allow areas of a building or room to be filled with contaminated air that can promote the spread of a virus. Most new systems include fresh air as required by the building code, but many older systems do not. A professional should be consulted to determine if your system incorporates fresh air or if it can be modified to do so. Simply put, a properly sized HVAC system that incorporates fresh air is a critical component in supporting occupant health.

As we move forward in this new environment, we seem to come across unforeseen challenges every day. But the response to all challenges is the same: assess, move-forward, reassess, move-forward… The one certainty is that we must be persistent in creatively evaluating the situation and developing solutions based on available resources. Stay tuned for Part II where Matt presents us with even more information on your topic!

Do you own or work in a commercial space – office, retail, or industrial? How do you feel like impact of COVID-19 will require changes be made to the configuration and functionality of your space? Please offer your comments or experiences in the comment section below.

How Commercial Tenants Can Negotiate Rent Relief During COVID-19

Posted on June 18, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Our world remains in a global pandemic and there is a long road to economic recovery. Seemingly overnight, our ways of working, living and playing drastically changed, and we were forced to sustain these changes for weeks and months on end. As a result, businesses closed their doors to the public, some temporarily and some permanently. This has led to the sudden need for these businesses to shed, or at least reduce, their commercial real estate overhead.

Think of it this way. When a business agrees to a rent amount, it does so with the expectation that it will have a certain level of income. All those expectations were upended with COVID-19, as many businesses have been forced to fully close for months or significantly reduce their use of their commercial space. Even though offices, restaurants, and stores are starting to reopen, their capacity for employees and customers — and, therefore, for revenue —remain diminished, making rent renegotiation necessary for staying afloat.

It’s important for commercial tenants who have lost the use of their spaces as a result COVID-19 to understand what options might exist for them to favorably negotiate some form of rent relief from their landlords. Take a look as we examine the key steps any commercial tenant or business owner should take when venturing down the path of lease negotiation.

Know the terms of your current lease.

Start with closely reviewing your current lease. What are the terms, conditions, and pricing you originally agreed to? What does it say about lease negotiations or early termination? Does it give conditions for if and when this would be considered? In order for your lease negotiation to be most effective, you must come armed with all the information related to your lease, and your leasing experience. Upon reviewing your lease, make note of the most important details and write or type those out on paper so that you can have it with you during your conversation. This will help to keep these details top of mind and easily accessible.

Seek representation and advice.

One of the most important things you can do is seek the representation and advice of a commercial tenant representative. This person is different than a real estate agent in that they exclusive represent the rights and interests of commercial tenants, not landlords. A tenant representative, like Omni Realty Group, would help review your current lease, advise you of your best plan for negotiating more favorable lease terms or even an early termination, and represent you at the meeting with your landlord. This not only provides peace of mind, but it gives you the best potential for a favorable outcome.

Be direct and professional with your request.

Schedule a meeting with your landlord and be direct that it’s to discuss your current lease terms. In your meeting, be clear and professional with your communication. Present your plan for new lease terms or early termination just like you would present a product or service to a client or customer. You want to sell your landlord on your plan; therefore, you need to make it clear why he or she should “buy” it.

Back your position with facts and data.

You can expect that your landlord will have questions and rebuttal. Why should he or she grant you new lease terms that are likely more favorable to you than they are to the landlord? Come armed with facts and data that support your plan. And also speak from a point of reason. Explain how your business was impacted by COVID-19. What were your losses or layoffs? How long were your doors closed to customers? And also look to other cities or states where possibly new laws are coming into place to offer rent relief for commercial real estate. This is taking place in California where a new bill, if it becomes law, allows businesses, particularly bars and restaurants, to terminate their lease agreements. While this may not be a law in your state, it’s worth discussing with your landlord how other places are approaching this difficult topic for perspective.

Finally, it’s worthwhile to research and consider how certain lease clauses could play in your favor and back up your position. Force majeure is a common clause in contracts that essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, like COVID-19, takes place. There is also the frustration of purpose doctrine, which comes into play when an unforeseen event undermines a party’s principal purpose for entering into a contract, such as how COVID-19 left many businesses without the need or ability to use their commercial space. And these are just a few examples. Upon more research and seeking legal counsel, there may be additional clauses and doctrines that could protect you in this situation.

Present the benefits of both parties.

Sure, the benefit to your business is clear. Shortening your lease terms or negotiating lower rent for less space will help your business stay afloat financially and shed overhead that is no longer needed as a result of COVID-19. Be sure to also make it clear what could be in the deal for your landlord. Could you recommend a new tenant, such as another business you know? Could you negotiate taking less space rather than leaving the building completely? Or could you reduce the length of your lease, but not terminate it immediately? Another option, if it’s of value to your landlord, is leaving behind desks, chairs, and other office furniture so that the space can be offered as fully furnished to new tenants.

Prioritize what’s most important, and be flexible with the rest.

Go into your discussion with your landlord knowing what you absolutely must accomplish in order for your lease to be sustainable for your business. Maybe this must be lower rent costs, or maybe you need to downsize your space. Try to pick your one most important thing, and then be prepared to make some concessions in other areas. If your landlord is willing to terminate your lease early, he or she may ask to keep your security deposit, or charge for one more month of rent. Or maybe they’re willing to let you downsize your space, but they need you to move to a different floor or location because it makes it more feasible for them to rent out other space. Be willing to listen and to negotiate.

Remember that you have options and support.

Omni Realty Group is working hard to address the ever-changing needs of businesses that have been impacted by COVID-19 and now need to rethink their commercial real estate leases. We want to help be a part of the solution. With the right strategy and presentation of your proposed changes to your lease, it’s reasonable and possible to find a favorable outcome with your landlord. Keep in mind that landlords have also been impacted by COVID-19 in ways you might not imagine. The right tenant representative can help guide you through the complexities of negotiating rent relief, share the most current updates on how they and/or others are addressing similar challenges, and provide the necessary thought leadership to help you make informed decisions.

Has COVID-19 impacted your business’s need for and use of its commercial real estate space? Are you considering asking for new lease terms as a result? If you have a question or need assistance, don’t hesitate to contact Omni Realty Group, Central Pennsylvania’s exclusive commercial tenant representative today.

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Commercial Spaces Likely to See New Requirements for HVAC Due to COVID-19

Posted on June 1, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

COVID-19 has changed life as we know it. The home office became the new workspace, video conferencing replaced in-person meetings, events shifted to virtual delivery, and parents became homeschool teachers while trying to balance career demands. It’s safe to say that the majority of people are looking forward to a time when they can return to work and feel a sense of normalcy again. One of the most important elements of this being possible in the near future is the ability for businesses to create a safe and sanitary work environment while adhering to CDC guidelines. The sooner this can be accomplished, the sooner commercial spaces can begin to reopen.

Some of the most important considerations are how to effectively filtrate, circulate and sanitize the air in shared and common spaces to reduce the spread of viruses. What options exist to improve air filtration and sanitization in shared office, retail, or industrial work spaces? And what new requirements might we expect commercial spaces will need to adhere to in order to ensure a safe work environment for their employees?

To lend some expertise on this topic, Omni Realty Group turned to John Gunning, who is the Senior Mechanical Engineer at McClure Company, based in Harrisburg, PA. Working within the Engineered Services division, he is responsible for the design of building mechanical systems for the commercial, educational and industrial markets. He is a licensed Professional Engineer in Pennsylvania and a LEED Green Associate. John is McClure Company’s in-house expert on the subject of ventilation and dehumidification and is frequently asked to speak at both technical and non-technical seminars regarding these subjects.

We asked John a series of questions related to how office, retail, and industrial spaces may need to adjust the functionality of their air filtration and sanitization in light of COVID-19. Keep reading to learn what he predicts to be the “new normal” of commercial HVAC requirements in Pennsylvania and beyond.

Omni: Prior to COVID-19, what was considered the standard level of air filtration in most office spaces?

JG: Pre-COVID we would expect to see 1-2” thick filters with a MERV 6 to MERV 8 rating. However, some systems may use lesser rated 1” filters, MERV 4 or less, with mesh or washable media.

Omni: As people return back to physical office spaces after stay-at-home orders are lifted, what changes do you anticipate businesses making to their office spaces to be more sanitary for their workers, particularly as it relates to HVAC and air-filtration considerations?

JG: With much of the discussion of the transmission of COVID revolving around the virus in aerosol form, we can anticipate businesses thinking of their HVAC system as more than just a tool to keep the space at the correct temperature. Building codes require outside ventilation air to be introduced into the building to dilute contaminants. Over time, outside air dampers may have been closed for reduced energy usage or for service and there may not be sufficient ventilation air being provided to the building. The American Society of Heating, Refrigeration and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) has also issued this position document which includes recommendations for building owners. Among the recommendations are upgrades to a minimum MERV 13 filter and use of ultraviolet (UV) lights in the airstream. Previous studies have also shown that optimal humidity range for human health and reduced infection rates of seasonal Influenza and other viruses is 40-60% relative humidity.

Omni: What are the options available for a higher standard of air-filtration in commercial spaces?

JG: Most commercial HVAC equipment will except a 2” filter. A 2” filter can be manufactured with an efficiency rating up to MERV 13. However, there is a trade-off in both cost and in energy usage as the more efficient filter will have a higher air pressure drop. This higher pressure drop requires greater fan horsepower to move the same amount of air through the filter as compared to a lower efficiency filter.

Omni: In your opinion, what industries most need to make such improvements to air-filtration?

JG: At present, healthcare facilities and some manufacturing businesses are the industries whose filter requirements must meet or exceed the latest ASHRAE recommendations related to preventing the dissemination of airborne pathogens. Office, Retail, Education and Hospitality business are candidates for filtration upgrades as more people return to utilizing these spaces.

Omni: In addition to HVAC and air-filtration changes, what other improvements might you suggest to business owners to increase the cleanliness of their air quality?

JG: Active dehumidification is strongly recommended in order to keep the space’s relative humidity below 60 %. Limiting cooling season humidity can also reduce the risk of mold growth which can be a source of respiratory issues. On the other end of the spectrum, maintaining humidity levels above 40% is of equal importance. To that end, we expect more owners to consider the use of humidification in the heating season. Incorporating UV lights, in the supply air stream, is documented by ASHRAE as an effective method to deactivate genetic building blocks of viruses. While newer, bi-polar ionization shows potential as a technology capable of deactivating airborne viruses, it has yet to be recommended by ASHRAE. When outdoor conditions permit, increasing the use of outdoor air to dilute indoor contaminants is beneficial.

Omni Realty Group thanks John Gunning for sharing this valuable information and helping us to better understand the changes that may need to take place to improve air filtration and sanitization in commercial spaces as the result of COVID-19. During this unprecedented era in all of our lives –and the history of the world – it’s so important to arm yourself with knowledge and options that exist to continue to improve the health and safety of our communities where we live, work, and play. John’s insight and explanation of enhanced HVAC filtration requirements for commercial spaces should be helpful to all Central Pennsylvania businesses who are looking for additional health measures they can put in place for the safety of their workers.

Do you work in a commercial space – office, retail, or industrial? How do you feel like impact of COVID-19 will require changes be made to the air filtration and sanitization in your space? We welcome you to share your questions or reflections in the comment section below.

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What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

Posted on April 28, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

All across our nation, businesses that once functioned from physical office space had to quickly transform their processes to function remotely as the government mandated stay-at-home orders to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus. This proved to be a strenuous and uncomfortable transition for most businesses, regardless of size or structure. Businesses with just a handful of employees, all the way up to organizations and institutions with thousands of employees scrambled to piece together the technologies and protocol that would allow them to remain functional, even when separated physically.

The typical boardroom meetings turned into Zoom calls, workshops and trainings that were to be conducted in-person, needed to mold into virtual delivery, and much more. As is to be expected, there was a steep learning curve and many technological challenges to overcome.

Now that Pennsylvania is more than a month into its statewide stay-at-home orders, many businesses have found new normal of working virtually. This is encouraging for those businesses who have managed to survive, and even thrive amidst such volatile times for our economy. However, it presents an uncertainty as to how businesses will choose to resume their traditional work environment, when they have permission to do so.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Nationally

Before COVID-19, around 43% of workers “occasionally” worked from home [versus 39% in 2012], 62% of workers said they could work remotely, and 80% of workers wanted to work from home at least “some of the time.” Working (remotely) through this pandemic will likely increase those percentages, spelling rough waters ahead for office landlords. Now during the stay-at-home and work-from-home orders, employers are seeing how they can operate with some or all their employees working remotely, and even do so as or more efficiently than when working from their traditional work environment.

As a result, it’s likely many employers will closely consider how they might leverage the cost-savings associated with reducing or completely eliminating the overhead of physical office space, which will result in increased office space vacancies, shorter leases, reduction of space needs from renewing tenants and less money available for tenant improvements. Vacancies will rise dramatically before they slowly decline. With approximately 8.1 billion square feet of office space nationally, the expected addition of another 335 million square feet through 2024 is very much in doubt.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Locally

Being the home of Pennsylvania’s capital will provide the Central PA region with some shelter, but there is little chance this market does not cool in the very near future. Employment gains have underperformed the national average for the duration of this cycle, and demographic trends are unfavorable. Residents are older, population growth is slow, and the state’s fiscal situation is, quite frankly, a mess.

Harrisburg is an underdeveloped capital compared to Columbus, Albany, and Annapolis; and the cultural epicenter of central Pennsylvania is in Lancaster. Harrisburg is trying to evolve into a knowledge-based economy and has adopted business-friendly incentives that have helped create nearly two dozen tech startups, which have generated 1,000 jobs. But the backbone of the economy still lies with Hershey and Rite Aid, which have headquarters in the region.

Fortunately, Central PA also has a strong education and medical economy that is reflective of statewide employment. Education and health services jobs, which now track evenly with government jobs in the state’s capital, grew by more than 4% annually. Expanding employment opportunities have increased demand for office space, and employment in office-using industries is well above pre-recession figures; but this remains, and likely will remain, a slow-growth market. Additionally, Pennsylvania as a whole will likely face significant financial problems after the virus subsides.

Vacancies currently sit at close to 6.6%, representing a year over year change of 0.0%, but are almost certain to spike in the very near future. While 12 month absorption figures (9,300 square-feet) can be negative, vacancies remain under control thanks to limited levels of new supply. The limited demand, and high number of small businesses operating here, could hamper the city for years if the quarantine carries on for months, as the federal government is estimating it will.

A New Work-From-Home Paradigm

When it comes to navigating the new work-from-home paradigm, we can expect “work-from-home” policies to be established to assure proper decorum, productivity standards, communication, and online protocols. Also watch for the adoption of four-day work weeks, shorter workdays, and greater reliance on technology for current employees. Extensions of sick leave “banking” and “healthy-to-come-to-work” standards are likely to become commonplace.

From the tech side of things, the use of platforms like Zoom, Go To Meeting and Blue Jeans video conferencing technology will become more popular alternatives than traditional in-person meetings. There will also be an increased expectation that these meetings will be as, or more productive than in-person meetings. Board management software and other secure online document management such as DocuSign, DropBox, and shared drives could electronically account for 70% – 75% of all “approval” transactions, for businesses who require such. Robust CRM (customer relationship management) platforms will be used increasingly to interact with customers and clients. Additionally, automation and outsourcing could replace 20% – 30% of employees who perform clerical, accounting, and administrative functions.

A Looming Recession

No matter how you look at things, the bottom line is that this pandemic will push the U.S. into a recession. There’s simply no way around it, at least immediately. Overall GDP growth in 2020 is expected to decline 10% – 13% which is the deepest recession on record. Some expect unemployment could rise to 10% – 15%, or higher, assuming a COVID-19 peak occurs by the 3Q.

The Central PA region has been significantly impacted by the Coronavirus. As of first quarter, the country closed up businesses and the federal government is estimating it will take months before there is a return to normalcy. There is no telling how long the shut out will occur, or what impact it could have on the Central PA office market, though it will likely be immense. Unemployment numbers are beginning to spike, and in the coming weeks, it is likely that hundreds of more businesses could fail, even with the Governor’s promise of reopening the Commonwealth on May 8. Additionally, rents will likely decline as vacancies skyrocket, and construction and investment activity will likely remain extraordinarily limited through the remainder of 2020.

The fundamentals of how Americans live, work, shop and play have changed and will not return to historical norms of behavior, consumption and lifestyles. The year 2020 will be analogous to the impacts of and transformative changes resulting from the Great Depression [1929 – 1932], which took more than 10 years to recover.

Where do we go from here?

Commercial real estate must look at this as an opportunity, just like every industry, to pause and pivot. The market prior to COVID-19 will not be the same market to which we will return. But we will return to something and we must learn to navigate this new landscape by remaining flexible, thoughtful, and strategic. Historically, Central PA has been able to withstand some of the most tumultuous economic storms on the past. Yes, gains are about to take a hard hit as the Coronavirus tears through the commercial real estate world, but this only means we need to bear down an be open to opportunities wherever they may arise.

One of the hardest hit areas of commercial real estate will be new construction. With little supply underway at second quarter, and the Coronavirus halting construction across the world, there is very little chance this market sees any notable projects deliver this year. Most projects since 2015 have either been build-to-suit efforts or significantly pre-leased prior to ground break.

With most new construction on hold, there could be the opportunity for existing office renovations. Many businesses may be looking to reconfigure their space to better isolate employees, adhere to whatever new social distancing protocols come from this, or install sanitary features like air purifying systems. Commercial real estate construction companies and developers would be wise to shift their focus to this type of work.

Another hard hit sector will be companies that provide shared and collaborative office space, like WeWork. In fact, society as a whole is likely to question the open office, collaborative work space, and creative office floor plans. Many businesses and sole proprietors chose to cancel their memberships to such services during the pandemic and it will be exceptionally challenging to regain all that was lost once the stay-at-home orders are lifted. For those who have found that they can effectively work from their own home office spaces, they may continue to do so in an effort to lighten overhead costs. Others may have been hit so hard by the pandemic that there is not a business to which they can return, further reducing their need for office space.

Again, the opportunity here is to reconfigure both the physical shared office spaces to be better isolated and sanitary, but also rethink the business model of how companies charge for space. Being flexible and fluid for business owners as they navigate the new normal is key right now.

To close on a positive not, the one clear winner in the office sector will be healthcare, medical office buildings, and biotech facilities. This sector is expected to grow 10% – 16% annually over the next decade as the entire local, county, state, and national healthcare facilities infrastructure and platform are reshaped, integrated and expanded as society mends and strengths as a result of a pandemic like the world has never seen.

If you are a commercial real estate professional, how have you been impacted thus far by COVID-19. Or if you are a business owner or employee who has transitioned to a virtual work environment, how do you anticipate this experience to transition your “new normal” once the stay-at-home order is lifted?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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As Your Needs for Office Space Change, Understand the Role of a Tenant Representative

Posted on April 7, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

The outbreak of COVID-19 hitting the United States has brought with it a tidal wave of challenges and uncertainties. This has been a wakeup call for so many businesses and individuals who must now struggle to adjust. Particularly for business owners who either own or lease commercial real estate such as a retail location, industrial space, or offices, the order to work from home and stay at home has drastically changed their need for brick and mortar space.

Whether it’s right now or once COVID-19 has passed, it’s highly likely that businesses in Pennsylvania and across our nation will have a drastic shift in their commercial real estate needs. In such times, business owners should be reminded that having a tenant representative on your side to represent you and negotiate for you as you reduce the amount of space you currently occupy, move to new office space, or change the terms of your lease is highly beneficial.

In an effort to help business owners understand how a tenant representative can be a benefit to them, and how this relationship works, we want to help answer some of the most common questions surrounding a tenant representative’s role. This first of which is “How do tenant representatives get paid?” Too often, the answer is confused with or lumped into the same category as how listing agents, who represent the landlord or seller, are compensated. But this is not necessarily the case.

What’s important to note is that exclusive tenant representatives, also called buyer’s agents, are unique in that they exclusively represent those looking to rent or buy commercial real estate. They never represent the landlord or seller, and for good reason. As you can imagine, that creates a conflict of interest which you can read more about here.

To answer the question regarding how a tenant representative/buyer agent is paid, here is a breakdown of important points to provide a clear explanation.

Typical Commission

The amount a commercial real estate agent receives on a commission is calculated as a percentage of the total commercial property sale price or lease value. The percentages are negotiated in the listing agreement. It’s important to note that it is illegal due to anti-trust laws to set a market or industry-wide standard for commission percentages, but on average most commissions range from 4% to 8%.

The variance in commission rates is due to a number of factors. In areas that have a surplus of office space, brokers may receive higher commission to entice tenants to particular properties. Brokers may also get varying commissions for office, retail and industrial spaces.

Co-Broke Commission – No Cost to the Tenant or Buyer

While tenant representatives/buyer agents provide their clients with incredible benefits, it’s important to note that the tenant/buyer is not responsible for a tenant representative’s/buyer agent’s fees. Properties for sale or lease that are listed with a broker specify a commission to be paid to the listing broker and shared with the broker representing the buyer/tenant. Landlords are the ones responsible for paying the fees. Most landlords have budgeted for the payment of commissions.

Although tenant reps/buyer agents are incredibly helpful for tenants/buyers looking for commercial real estate, their services also benefit landlords or their listing agent, as they help fill vacancies. Because tenant representatives/buyer agents allow listing agents to quickly turn over empty space, they are often willing to pay for their services. As a result, a buyer/renter can usually enjoy the services of a tenant representative without having to pay anything.

One caveat is that in very rare circumstances, landlords or listing agents may refuse to pay the tenant representative’s fees. Normally, this only happens when the tenant representative was not engaged from the very beginning of the tenant or buyer looking for space which can muddy the waters. This makes it all the more important to begin any commercial real estate search with a tenant representative on your team.

Advantages of Working with a Tenant Representative

If a real estate broker representing the landlord/seller encourages you to do a direct deal without a involving a tenant representative/buyer agent, proceed with extreme caution. The landlord’s/seller’s broker will likely tell you that you will save money by eliminating the tenant representative’s/buyer agent’s fees, but the truth is that the landlord/seller is likely to pay the same amount to their own representative even if you forgo a tenant rep/buyer agent. Plus, not having an agent to advocate for you during the negotiation process could mean ending up with a higher rent rate and less than favorable lease terms.

It’s important to have the knowledge and expertise of a tenant representative/buyer agent to guide you through the leasing/buying process and represent your best interests. A tenant representative/buyer agent can also make your property search less time consuming by showing you only properties that they know fit your criteria. Think of them as your tenant/buyer “concierge.”

Despite the fact that the landlord is responsible for paying the tenant rep/buyer agent, you should rest assured that the tenant representative/buyer agent is working for your best interests. This is because they don’t get paid until you find a great deal!

Has the impact of COVID-19 caused you to rethink the use of your commercial real estate spaces? If you need to downsize or renegotiate the terms of your lease, keep in mind how a tenant representative can be an advocate for your best interests.

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COVID-19 and the Economy: Changes Coming to Commercial Real Estate

Posted on March 27, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

No matter where you go to consume news, you will be bombarded by anything and everything related to COVID-19. The impact of this novel virus on our world is impossible to fully understand or appreciate at this time. The term “unchartered water” is being used quite frequently and it couldn’t be more accurate.

Every industry is wondering how this will impact their business, both immediately and long-term. The simple truth is that no one really knows right now. The best we can do is look to history to see how the world has reacted to similar pandemics, economic crisis, and panic. Though the world has not seen a virus causing a global shut down like we are seeing with COVID-19, we can anticipate the significant changes we may expect to see take right here in Pennsylvania. Here’s how commercial real estate is getting pulled into the fold.

Economic Uncertainty. With so much uncertainty in the stock market these last few days, people get nervous. Talk to anyone working in the financial services industry, and he or she will tell you that most of their time right now is spent talking people off the ledge of making panicked decisions. And their fear is not unfounded. After all, trillions of dollars in paper wealth have essentially evaporated.

As people watch their diminishing 401K balances, they feel rightfully uncertain. And if such uncertainty causes consumers to hit the pause button on spending, a ripple effect is bound to take place. When attendees avoid concerts, sporting events, movies, or restaurants, businesses suffer a decline in sales. Operations who supply these enterprises, such as the trucking, food, linens, security, novelties industries then feel the pinch as the ripples become waves of lost revenue. How does this relate back to commercial real estate? All of these businesses rent or own commercial real estate, meaning CRE gets pulled into the downward spiral.

Supply chain disruption. Here are the facts (changing daily), steel production is down 90% in China. Auto sales in Asia is down 95%. One of the Port of LA’s largest exports is auto parts. Couple these factors with the typical container cancellations during the Chinese New Year and you create an immense lag in product delivery which will ripple out to impact just about every other industry imaginable.

Whole industries have come to a sudden halt. Hotels, restaurants, construction businesses, retail stores – and this is hardly scratching the surface of the businesses across the Commonwealth mandated to shutter their businesses for at least two weeks – likely more. The ripple effect this will have immediately and well into the future is near impossible to quantify. It’s not unlikely that some businesses may fold as a result. If such businesses owned or rented commercial real estate, this is space that will be vacated. Additionally, a lull in new construction will decrease the amount of new space delivered to the market at least through 2020.

Interest rates. There is much conversation and reason to believe that we will soon see more favorable interest rates, making commercial real estate financing more affordable. The reason is that mass stock market sell offs will generate proceeds which must be invested. Typically, a safe harbor for this cash is short term instruments such as Treasuries. However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. On March 3rd, The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by ½ of one percent which was met with much applause. The truth is that this is irrelevant. The federal funds rate refers to the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. The hard truth is that the federal funds rate has no impact on ten-year treasury yields.

The Silver Lining – Despite the doom and gloom being predicted for many industries as the result of the spread of COVID-19, there are (at least) three reasons why commercial real estate should look to the silver lining in all of this. Here’s what they are.

#1. Some stock market investors fleeing the equity markets may choose to start investing in real estate. Why wouldn’t they invest in CRE? After the rapid downturn that’s transpired in the last few weeks, it only seems logical that some would say enough is enough I’m going to pull my money out of the stock market and invest it in a lower risk type of investment.

#2. Treasury rates have hit historic lows. On March 9th, the ten-year treasury bottomed out at 0.569%, rising to 0.981% by Friday, March 13. For comparison, a year ago, the ten-year treasury closed at 2.592% so the decline has been dramatic to state the obvious. Those of us who have debt, whether it is a home loan or loans on our rental properties, are going to benefit by refinancing debt with significantly lower interest rates.

#3. If there is increased demand for CRE and interest rates remain low, the logical result will be that capitalization rates will continue to compress even further than they are right now. This means that even if a real estate investor doesn’t refinance his rental properties, the value of his real estate will still go up as cap rates continue to compress. So bottom line is that those of us who have invested in commercial real estate will inadvertently benefit from this black swan event.

#4. It’s now a tenant’s market. The speed at which the market shifted from a landlord’s market to a tenant’s market can hardly be overstated. COVID-19 has effectively caused a collapse of U.S. office demand, which ironically comes after the market set a post-recession record just last year. For tenants who are hunting for new office, retail, or industrial space, chances are you’re going to be able to negotiate favorable terms and pricing.

In trying and changing times like these, I am very glad I chose to be an exclusive tenant agent representative/buyer’s agent for commercial real estate. I can still be an asset to my clients, whereas other forms of brokerage are more greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this historic time, I can serve my clients through subleasing, lease restructuring, and negotiating better deals based on current market conditions.

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Cannabis-Friendly States Get Major Boost in Commercial Real Estate

Posted on February 25, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Already there are 33 states and the District of Columbia that have legalized marijuana use in some form. Many of these states, like Pennsylvania, allow for limited medical use. According to a recent article, dispensaries in Pennsylvania have sold more than seven hundred million dollars of medical marijuana since the Commonwealth implemented the program, just under two years ago. In that time, nearly 150,000 Pennsylvanians are now certified to buy weed.

While the debate of whether to legalize marijuana – medicinal or recreational – is heated, there is one aspect of this topic that is clear. The demand for the production and sale of medical marijuana is evident, both locally and nationwide. And for cannabis-friendly states, the demand for commercial real estate is on the rise. What does this mean for commercial real estate here in PA? Let’s take a look at a few key points.

Increased Demand for Both Commercial and Residential

States where medical and recreational marijuana are legal have seen increased property demand in both the commercial and residential sectors, according to a new study by the National Association of Realtors. The study also revealed that more than a third of real estate professionals polled said they saw an increase in requests for warehouses and other properties used for storage. In the same states, up to a quarter of members said they saw a spike in demand for storefronts, and one-fifth said there was a greater demand for land. States where marijuana has been legal the longest have seen the largest impact on both commercial and residential real estate.

A Double Edge Sword for Residential Real Estate

However, the residential sector has not benefited as much as the commercial sector; in fact there have actually been a few drawbacks as buyers assess the “new normal” of living near a grow house or dispensary. While between 7% and 12% of those polled said that they had seen increases in property values near dispensaries, between 8% and 27% said they’d seen property values fall. Homeowners are still adjusting to how they feel about purchasing property near areas of marijuana growth and consumption. In states where recreational marijuana is legal, 58 to 67 percent of residential property managers have seen addendums added to leases which restrict smoking on properties. The most common issue was the smell, followed by moisture issues.

CRE Investors See This as a Big Opportunity

Cannabis investors are buying up commercial property, particularly warehouses, in states where recreational and/or medicinal cannabis use has been legalized for more than three years, which was revealed in the same NAR study referenced above. Investors realize it is important to understand the supply and demand, and the regulatory dynamic in each state. Focusing on states with higher barriers to entry makes a license more valuable and makes that real estate more valuable. In 2018, warehouse demand in states with only medical use outpaced demand in states with recreational use, 34% to 27%, respectively, according to the NAR study.

The Economic Impact in Pennsylvania

Sales and participation have ramped up significantly since the program’s inaugural year. Last February, total sales had amounted to just $132 million, per the PA Department of Health. Fast forward twelve months, and the tally has risen to $711 million. That puts the Commonwealth at 439% sales jump from year one to year two. In a snap shot, Pennsylvania’s medical marijuana program has:

287,000 people registered
261,000 patients
1,800 registered doctors
1,300 approved doctors (practitioners)
168,000 active patients (2-2.5 visits a month)
4 million patient visits
$711 million in total sales
$288 million wholesale
$423 million in retail sales
$110 avg. purchase per visit
22 of 25 GPs are approved
15 of 25 GPs are shipping product
77 dispensaries are operational

Furthermore, dispensary operators don’t seem to think we’ve reached the saturation point yet. As more licenses are made available, and whatever lie ahead for further legalization of marijuana, one things is certain. As demand increases for marijuana, so will the demand increase for commercial estate.

What’s next for marijuana in Pennsylvania?

Back in October 2019, Governor Tom Wolf came out in favor of legalizing cannabis for recreational use. Last spring, a Franklin & Marshall College Poll showed that 59 percent, or nearly seven in 10 voters, support the idea of legalizing marijuana. But voter support alone is not enough. The legislation will have to pass both the House and the Senate, with much opposition particularly from the Republican Party.

While this doesn’t mean the possibility of someday legalizing recreational marijuana in Pennsylvania is off the table, it does mean there will be many hoops to jump through – just as there was for the legalization of medicinal use. Looking at the issue solely from an economic standpoint, there is much to be gained by continuing to open this market and remove barriers; however there are many other issues to consider.

Given the boost this has brought to commercial real estate, with the demand for more industrial and retail space, combined with more interest from CRE and cannabis investors, it’s wise to continue to watch for trends – both negative and positive. Looking to other states as examples also gives us insight into what to expect as the cannabis market in Pennsylvania grows, and how CRE professionals can continue to capitalize on the opportunity.

Do you agree with these trends and insights? Or do you have another viewpoint to share? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Growing U.S. Economy Drives Demand for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on February 13, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

The current economic climate in the United States has been a bit of a roller coaster, and depending upon the industry you’re examining, you may find more ups than downs or vice versa. Trade wars, combined with a slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector and around the globe, shook up equity markets and businesses in 2019. But robust job growth has extended the spending power of American consumers, which is ultimately our nation’s economic engine, according to CoStar’s 2019 Year in Review of the U.S. Economy.

To put this into perspective, the United. States is currently experiencing the longest economic expansion since World War II. Additionally, key indicators point to the economy staying solid in 2020, which will extend the record bull run for U.S. commercial real estate. While there are some risks that could eventually move the nation toward a recession, as it stands, the growing U.S. economy is driving demand for commercial real estate, with many factors emerging as a result. Let’s take a look at what the most profound outcomes of this CRE growth.

The growing economy bodes well for demand for commercial and multifamily real estate.

What it means for CRE: Expanding payrolls will continue to fuel demand for office space, while rising incomes and consumption will boost demand in industrial and retail sectors. As job growth continues, consumers appear quite optimistic and unconcerned by the trade war and any economic slowdown abroad.

Migration of workers from the Northeast and Midwest is growing the labor markets, which is fueling real estate demand, specifically in the South and U.S. West.

What it means for CRE: With the increase in labor as well as a growing demand for real estate in the South and U.S. West regions, CRE developers and investors should look to these markets as viable areas of growth. An increase in job creation also means a rising demand for office spaces and apartments. Property management will benefit from high occupancy rates, and job growth will lead to an increase in leasing. With low interest rates, commercial prices will likely see some gains.

The answer to combat rising development costs and rental prices in urban areas may be micro-apartments.

What it means for CRE: Simply put, micro-apartments extract the most value from every square foot. Standardized designs and “pre-fab” or modular construction cut development costs and shorten construction time, meaning developers could reduce expenses and start generating rental income more quickly. Some developers are designing studio apartments that are one-fifth the size and 40% of the cost of a typical studio, netting out to as little as 175 square feet.

Investing in industrial real estate, over retail, is the safer bet.

What it means for CRE: The industrial vacancy rate is extremely low, in many cities it’s below 5%, even 1% to 2% in some areas. Meanwhile, internet sales are cannibalizing traditional retail spaces, such as department stores, malls, and shopping centers. A unique aspect of this changing market is the emergence of “click-to-brick” retailers, like Amazon, that are establishing small retail stores in key areas. These spaces don’t carry much inventory, but they give customers the opportunity to interact with physical products and place an order. So for CRE investors and developers, industrial real estate carries more certainty and less risk than retail at this time.

Moving into the new decade, economists expect economic growth to slow somewhat as the labor market cools.

What it means for CRE: Consumer spending may lose some momentum and persistent global and trade policy headwinds weigh on business sentiment and investment. For commercial real estate, 2020 should remain a solid year of growth, especially for the industrial market. Though real estate professionals should remain strategic and always be looking ahead to factors that could impact economic growth, and CRE growth as a result.

What is your view of the current state of the nation’s economy right now? How do you anticipate this changing in 2020? Share your thoughts and insights by leaving a comment below.

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