Home» CPBJ Articles

6 Things in 2018 that Should Have Commercial Real Estate Agents Feeling Grateful

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Mike Kushner in CPBJ Articles, In the News No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

It’s about that time when people start to reflect upon the last year, making note of progress that has been made, and milestones that have been achieved. In light of the Thanksgiving holiday, there are certain things that should have commercial real estate agents, in particular, feeling grateful for what 2018 has brought with it.

Here’s a look at six things that should have CRE professionals giving extra thanks this year – and looking to 2019 with high expectations.

CONTINUE TO THE FULL ARTICLE

Pros and Cons of Crowdfunding and Commercial Real Estate

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Mike Kushner in CPBJ Articles, In the News No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

By now you’ve likely heard of the concept of crowdfunding. Maybe you’ve even ran a campaign for yourself or used a crowdfunding platform to give money to a cause.

When most people think of crowdfunding, they think of using it to raise money for charity, like Go Fund Me, or to help grow a business, like Kickstarter. But one sector of crowdfunding that is steadily growing is crowdfunding for commercial real estate investments.

CONTINUE TO THE FULL ARTICLE

Pros and Cons of Crowdfunding and Commercial Real Estate

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

By now you’ve likely heard of the concept of crowdfunding. Maybe you’ve even ran a campaign for yourself or used a crowdfunding platform to give money to a cause. When most people think of crowdfunding, they think of using it to raise money for charity, like Go Fund Me, or to help grow a business, like Kickstarter. But one sector of crowdfunding that is steadily growing is crowdfunding for commercial real estate investments. It’s exactly what it sounds like. A group (or “crowd”) of fellow CRE investors purchase shares of a property or properties. Their combined resources allow them to jointly own CRE properties that none could afford to invest in individually.

On paper – or should we say on the internet – it’s a seemingly simple concept with obvious benefits. But it’s not without drawbacks too. Next we’re going to take a closer look at the pros and cons of crowdfunding for commercial real estate, and how this investment option may or may not be a good fit for you.

The Pros –

Affordable Price of Entry

Most people don’t have millions of dollars, even a hundred thousand dollars to put into a commercial real estate investment. This obstacle no longer has to stop interested investors from getting in on a great CRE deal. Through crowdfunding, pooling together funds is simple and fast. Commonly the price of entry is anywhere from $1,000 to $5,000. Compare this to outright owning your own investment property and you’ll see that this price of entry makes crowdfunding a really affordable opportunity.

Control of Your Cash

Compared to putting your money in a real estate investment trust (REIT), CRE crowdfunding gives you a lot more control and oversight. You get to choose exactly the type of property you want to invest in; you’re not relying on a trust manager to do this for you. For some investors, they love the thrill of the hunt of doing their own research and finding just the right property to invest in. If this is you, then you’ll enjoy that crowdfunding gives you control over when and how you invest your cash.

Diversity

Having a diverse investment portfolio is important. You want to be sure you’re not betting on just one horse. Through crowdfunding, you can invest in many different CRE properties within different sectors and classes. Even if you only have a moderate amount of money to invest, because the entry price for crowdfunding is so reasonable, this gives you the opportunity to diversify where your money is going.

Stability

No investment is completely stable, but when compared to traditional stocks and bonds, a CRE crowdfunded investment offers more stability because it’s not at the mercy of the stock market. Yes, other factors within the economy will certainly impact the value of the property, among other things; however, this is rarely an overnight change and can usually be predicted well in advance.

The Cons –

Longer-Term Commitment

When using crowdfunding to invest in commercial real estate, you’ll need to abide by your operating agreement. Usually when you invest, you have to lock this in for a set period of time. Sometimes this is several months, other times it’s several years. No matter how you look at it, crowdfunding investments are not easy to liquidate. They take time – and time isn’t always something people have, especially when it locks away cash that could be needed elsewhere.

Little to No Say in the Property

In the pros section we mentioned how CRE Crowdfunding gives you more control; however it’s important to note that really only pertains to your money. When it comes to the actual investment property, you have little to no say in the project. As a smart investor, you should do your homework to be sure you agree with the plans for the property and how it will be managed. Because after you invest, your opinion will most likely not be solicited.

The Unknowns

CRE crowdfunding most certainly has its risks. If you can tolerate these risks, then there is the potential for a high reward. A lot of the risks revolve around the unknown. Will the project stay on budget? Will it be completed on time? Will the property be managed as intended? Will the predictions and assumptions for the investment hold true? If you don’t like the risk and worry of the unknowns, CRE crowdfunding could really weigh you down.

Fees, Fees and More Fees

One final con is that there are a lot of hidden fees that could catch you off guard. The crowdfunding platform itself will apply fees to your investment. This varies from platform to platform, so be sure to read the fine print. Additionally, the investment property may also slap on additional costs for things like a construction fee, management fee, etc. Again, be sure to closely and carefully read every piece of your operating agreement because this is where you should uncover these fees before you sign on the dotted line.

The real takeaway here is that, like anything, crowdfunding for commercial real estate has its ups and downs. A smart investor will closely consider each side and weigh the risk versus the reward. Even with its cons, crowdfunding is a valuable investment opportunity that cannot be ignored, especially if you’re looking for ways to diversify your investment portfolio.

How do you feel about crowdfunding for commercial real estate? Is there something we missed on our list? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, benefit, Commercial Real Estate, cons, CRE, crowdfunding, digital, drawback, financial, industrial, investing, investment, Mike Kushner, money, office, Omni Realty Group, portfolio, property, pros, retail, technology

6 Things in 2018 that Should Have Commercial Real Estate Agents Feeling Grateful

Posted on November 13, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Here’s a look at six things that should have CRE professionals giving extra thanks this year – and looking to 2019 with high expectations.

Interest rates are still historically low.

Yes, interest rates are indeed rising and people are panicking over them reaching 6%, but keep in mind that we are still way below the average rate of the last 47 years at 8.35%. Furthermore, recent gauges of U.S. inflation signify little need for the Fed to change its slow-but-steady stance on interest rate hikes at this juncture, so we don’t expect this to jump up several points overnight. Plus, there are a lot of other factors working in the economy’s favor like…

Unemployment hit a 49-year low.

It’s the headline you’re seeing smattered across every major news publication – the U.S. unemployment rate reached 3.7 percent in September — the lowest it has been since December 1969. What’s more, the job market is so tight that the amount of available jobs far exceeds the number of people seeking employment! Employers reported more than 7 million unfilled jobs in August, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000.

Demand for industrial space remains strong.

In Central PA, 2018 brought with it an increasing demand for industrial real estate. The third-quarter saw rent grow hit 6.9%. When compared to the historical average of just 1.9%, it’s easy to see how this boom in demand for industrial space is an exciting new trend for our local economy, particularly because we are poised to welcome more and more warehousing and distribution companies to the area.

Sales of multifamily real estate hits record high.

In the third-quarter, multifamily real estate sales set a new record with the all-time high of $160.6 million. This same sector set another record this year in the second-quarter with an all-time low vacancy rate of 4.3%. With just two numbers, 2018 paints the picture of Central PA’s thriving commercial real estate market, particularly in the multifamily sector.

The Fed raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year.

At its September policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year. While to some a rate increase may not be something that has you feeling grateful, this is yet one more indication of a healthy, growing economy that can sustain such an increase. Furthermore, forecasters contend that unless inflation picks up or the economy starts slowing, the federal funds rate, which is currently between 2 percent and 2.25 percent, should continue to head higher.

New industries are expanding their commercial real estate.

The sixth and final thing that should have commercial real estate agents feeling grateful this year is healthcare mergers. Why? Because this is shaking up the way healthcare systems are approaching real estate. Across the region, the Commonwealth and nationwide we are seeing mergers taking place between healthcare systems small and large. All of this “teaming up” is causing a change in the way these organizations are using commercial real estate. In some instances, such mergers call for consolidating medical office space to reduce redundancy. In other instances, more space is needed to break into new markets or regions. This burst of acquisitions and activity spurs growth and fuels CRE sales.

Gratitude…and Caution

It’s important to note, this is the highlight reel from 2018. The CRE market has certainly experienced both its ups and downs in the various sectors of retail, office and industrial real estate. What’s most important is to take all good news, and bad news, with a grain of salt and know that what goes up, will eventually come down – whether that’s next quarter, next year or next decade.

For now, we can slide into the holiday season feeling grateful for these “gifts” the market has given us this year and enter 2019 cautiously optimistic.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, agent, article, blog, broker, camp hill, central, central pa, central pennsylvania, commercial, Commercial Real Estate, CRE, east, gettysburg, harrisburg, hershey, investor, lancaster, market report, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, Omni Realty Group, pennsylvania, tenant representative, trends, west, writing, york

Jobs – Not Economy – Drive Commercial Real Estate Activity

Posted on August 22, 2018 by Mike Kushner in CPBJ Articles, In the News No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this summer, it was reported that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected. Dropping unemployment numbers indicate a strong labor market.

Many people may assume that it’s the economy that drives commercial real estate activity, but really it’s jobs. The two are closely correlated, but for several compelling reasons jobs have the greater impact and drive businesses to either expand or contract their commercial space.

CONTINUE TO THE FULL ARTICLE

Jobs – Not Economy – Drive Commercial Real Estate Activity

Posted on August 22, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this month, it was reported that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected. To put this into perspective, claims dropped to 208,000 during the week of July 14, which was the lowest it has been since December 1969! After peaking at nearly 300,000 claims in October of 2017, we have seen a mostly steady (with some variation) decline in unemployment claims moving forward.

Dropping unemployment numbers indicate a strong labor market. The United States has an estimated 149 million jobs – 19 million more than it did just nine years ago. When you think about that type of job growth, it’s easy to see how it will have an impact on commercial real estate. To accommodate 19 million more workers, businesses have had to add space. Even for jobs that are run outside of traditional office space, there are still many more that do utilize office, retail or industrial real estate to some capacity.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

It all comes down to people and space.

Economic growth is measured by GDP and can be fueled by any number of factors, most of which won’t have a direct impact on commercial real estate. Businesses can earn more money without necessarily needing to hire more people or move into a different commercial location. Though it’s common that when the economy is growing, the commercial real estate industry becomes more active, the true driving force is jobs.

When businesses need more people, they also need more space to accommodate these people. A business using traditional office space is not likely able to hire more than three or so people before working quarters begin to feel a bit crammed. As a result, they move. It is increasing jobs, not just economy, that spurs new commercial real estate activity.

Change doesn’t happen overnight.

There is somewhat of a long tail on job growth driving commercial real estate activity. It takes time to catch up! When businesses are adding employees, they will usually make their current space “work” for as long as possible and then strategically move into a bigger space when they absolutely must. Conversely, when businesses are forced to lay off employees, they often stay in their current space, even if it means some space goes unused. The reason is it’s easier (and less expensive) to lay off employees as the first means of cutting costs than it is to downsize commercial space.

So, the job growth that we’ve seen over the course of many years is now driving the commercial real estate activity we are seeing today.

Slowing, but not stopping.

Job growth peaked in early 2015, then fell steadily through the end of 2017. Since then we have seen a modest, yet mostly steady increase in recent months. The reality is job growth, at any rate, cannot go on forever. The reason is, at some point, the United States will reach its “full employment” where everyone who wants a job, has a job. The unemployment rate, now at 4%, is about as low as it has been since the late 1960s, almost 50 years ago.

For commercial real estate, the link between job growth and space demand is clear and direct, though there may be lags. There will always be businesses who are looking to change their commercial space. Some will want more space, some will want less. Others will want to move to a newer space or will desire a different location. Businesses will close while others open. And so the cycle continues.

Short-Term Impact

Even with economic growth heating up, commercial real estate investors and property owners should not set their expectations for greater space absorption too high, at least in the short-term. Yes, there will be some pick-up in leasing associated with the spike in GDP growth. However, CRE professionals would be wise to focus more on job growth as the gauge for leasing prospects – and this outlook looks much more moderate because the ranks of unemployed workers available is largely exhausted. Looking at the short-term, we should not anticipate significant growth in property leasing this year. The surging industrial sector is the exception, which is the result of the shift from in-store to online shopping, not jobs.

Do you agree that it’s jobs, not the economy, that has the greater impact on commercial real estate activity? Why or why not? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, advice, blog, central penn business journal, Commercial Real Estate, cpbj, decline, Economy, effect, employment, expert, growth, impact, jason scott, job, jobs, labor, long-term, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, opinion, rate, short-term, statistics, trends, unemployment

Real Estate Trends to Impact the United States in 2018

Posted on December 27, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Rapid technological advancements and significant demographic shifts significantly influence the real estate industry. These various factors like growing urbanization, longevity of Baby Boomers and differentiated lifestyle patterns of Millennials are changing the way people value real estate. Add into the mix macroeconomic and regulatory developments, and you have the perfect storm for some significant changes to come to the real estate market in 2018.

With the many changes that have already taken place in 2017, many real estate companies find themselves searching for ways in which they can gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in the New Year.

To achieve this, we must identify and monitor emerging trends that are likely to impact the economy moving into 2018. Take a look at the top trends that are shaping the U.S. real estate industry right now!

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Increasing interest rates could temper growth

Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in the short-to-medium term. Volatile global markets have led to continued low interest rates, but that’s expected to come to an end in 2018. Higher interest rates are likely to increase mortgage costs and could deter real estate investments to some extent.
Gross domestic product growth will likely increase 2.5 percent in 2018. It’s the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1% growth in 2016. The modest economic improvement could temper the pace of commercial real estate (CRE) transaction activity.
Improving labor markets and household wealth will boost consumer confidence. The U-5 unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached is expected to drop under 5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio is projected to peak in 2018, as retiring Baby Boomers may reduce the share of employed.

REGULATORY OUTLOOK: Greater compliance means greater cost

Increased compliance and administration costs will result from the new accounting standards on lease accounting and revenue recognition that will primarily impact real estate investment trusts (REITs) and engineering and construction (E&C) companies.
Risk retention rules will lower issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). We are also likely to see a reduction in capital availability in secondary and tertiary markets.
The Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act of 2015 will ease REIT tax provisions and R&D tax credits for E&C companies, while increasing the flexibility to invest in startups for R&D experimentation. However, corporate tax reforms will reduce flexibility for corporations to spin off real estate assets into REIT structures.

DISRUPTIVE TRENDS: These factors are reshaping the face of CRE

Collaboration and Sharing.These sound like two positive trends, right? They certainly are for startups who utilize new platforms and business models like Airbnb or WeWork to reduce their real estate overhead. However, this type of collaboration and sharing of space is disrupting the way organizations lease and use commercial real estate space for their businesses. Traditional CRE companies will need to rethink their approach toward space design, lease administration, and lease duration in order to compete.
CRE data is becoming more ubiquitous and transparent thanks to technological advancements. The traditional brokerage model is being threatened by the increasing ease and efficiency of online leasing. Traditional brokers will need to diversify their services to include consulting and collaboration.
A growing demand for mixed-use developments as consumers prefer to “live, work and play” in proximity. This demand is the result of a shortage of workers with strong STEM skills, rising urbanization and Millennials’ preference for an open and flexible work culture. Companies trying to compete for this type of talent should choose office locations in areas that cater to the living and working environments preferred by their ideal candidates.
Rising demand for fast and convenient online retailing is disrupting the retail and industrial markets. Innovations in speed and mode of delivery (such as same-day delivery and e-lockers) will decrease the demand for large retail and industrial spaces. This trend will also cause a blurring of the lines between these two properties. For example, some retail space could double as fulfillment centers. To stay afloat, retailers will need to try different store formats to appeal to the consumer, while industrial properties should focus on smaller, more flexible spaces located near cities.
A change in how we get around will also change how we use real estate. With each passing year, more and more people rely upon “pay-per-use” vehicles and rideshare platforms like Zipcar, Uber and Lyft. We also get closer to self-driving vehicles. This major disruption to the entire mobility ecosystem will result in fewer people owning and driving their own vehicles, especially in urban areas. This will free up large parking spaces in prime locations that can be put to different uses. Real estate companies should begin to explore ways to reduce and repurpose parking space as a means to generate more income.

Over the course of the next 12 months, the U.S. commercial and residential real estate industry can expect to be hit with various changes and challenges. Some of these changes may have a favorable impact, while others could impose some serious setbacks. For real estate businesses to gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in 2018, they should take note of these emerging trends and work on developing a strategy now to react to the changing market, when the time comes.

What real estate trend do you think will have the most significant impact on the United States in 2018? Share your insights by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, buyers agent, central pennsylvania, commercial, demand, Economy, growth, industry, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, prediction, regulation, residential, tenant representative, trends, united states

Current State of the U.S. Economy and Its Impact on Commercial Real Estate – Part II

Posted on December 12, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Continuing with part II from our series on the health and future of the U.S. economy, we again welcome the knowledge and insight of Robert Calhoun. Robert is the Northeast Regional Economist for CoStar Group where he manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Let’s now dive into what real estate market participants should be keeping a watchful eye on in 2018 – Be sure to also take a look back at part I from this series which focuses on the U.S. economy as a whole!

Omni: Debt drives real estate markets and there’s a flood of capital in the market right now. Is this a shoe waiting to drop?

I say that all the time: debt drives real estate markets. What you worry about from a capital markets standpoint is that a flood of capital leads to declining underwriting standards, and so far we aren’t seeing anything overly alarming on that front.

There has been some gradual loosening of underwriting standards in the CMBS space, but this has generally been met with demands of higher credit support by the rating agencies. Investors are still doing a good job of differentiating collateral and demanding higher yields for riskier deals. We are seeing a resurgence of CRE CLOs during this cycle, but the structure of these deals are much better than the previous cycle (simpler and easier to understand, more capital in the deals, etc.).

Omni: What is contributing to the widening gap between bid and ask prices in the commercial real estate market right now?

We’ve been watching the staring contest between buyers with dry powder and owners with big gains for some time. While many owners would probably like to take advantage of current valuations and harvest gains at low cap rates, they run the risk of having to redeploy that capital back out into the same market.

Many buyers, despite being flush with cash, are balking at current prices. And the deeper we get into this cycle, the harder it is to make deals pencil by assuming higher rents and higher occupancy into an uncertain future. I would say the widening of bid/ask spreads right now is a healthy thing, further evidence that market participants are staying somewhat disciplined.

A CRE investor has a couple of different dials he can toggle when making investment decisions: risk profile, return requirement, pace of investment. They are choosing to slow their investment pace instead of loosen their risk profile or lower their return requirements.

Omni: From a commercial real estate perspective, what are the most dramatic potential effects that we should brace ourselves for? In terms of the commercial real estate market, what will you be keeping a close eye on in 2018? What will be driving the volatility in 2018?

I’ll echo my comments from before: CRE fundamentals appear solid with no glaring red flags at the national level. The biggest risk to the commercial real estate market would be a sharp rise in interest rates, likely driven by an unforeseen pickup in inflation that causes the Fed to worry that it’s behind the curve. So far, inflation has been very well behaved.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the unemployment rate and corresponding wage growth. At this stage in the cycle, with labor markets relatively tight, we’ve typically seen wage pressures materialize. As of the Fed’s most recent statement of economic projections, the Committee expects the unemployment rate to be 4.1% at the end of 2018. We are already at 4.1% as of October 2017. If the unemployment rate were to dip below 4.0% and inflation were to begin moving more quickly back toward the Fed’s 2.0% target, that could elicit a faster pace of rate hikes than is currently expected.

Omni: Do you think market participants are factoring the threat from technology into their investment decisions?

Technology is an interesting topic when it comes to commercial real estate. I think many market participants see CRE as an area of the economy that won’t be as easily “disrupted” by technology, but we’re already experiencing disruption! So much ink has been spilled over the Amazon effect on retail that I don’t need to say much here. WeWork and its $20B valuation, whatever you may think of it, is shaking up the office market. Even if a company doesn’t actually use WeWork space when they want to expand, couldn’t they take a page from their playbook and demand a shorter/more flexible lease in a traditional office building? How would that impact office valuations?

Technology like driverless cars won’t change people’s need to live SOMEWHERE, but it might change the shape of cities and neighborhoods, creating winners and losers. Technology is also changing the way investors think about real estate as an asset class. Priceline is currently valued at $84B while Marriott has a market cap of $46B. In that light, which his more valuable: owning the real estate or owning the customer relationship?

I’m hearing more chatter about how artificial intelligence and machine learning can begin to disrupt the CRE lending market, with algorithms taking the place of human underwriters. It’s easy to envision a company like Zillow disintermediating traditional real estate brokers by facilitating peer-to-peer home sales, and that same model could be extended into the commercial real estate market.

To answer your question (finally), I think it’s important for market participants to consider technological threats…but at the same time, nobody does a very good job of predicting an uncertain future! Picking winners and losers will be as challenging as always.

What appears to be most promising for 2018’s commercial real estate market? What is most concerning? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

In case you missed it, be sure to check out part I from our interview series with Robert Calhoun. In our first article, Robert shares insights into the health and future of the United States’ economy as a whole.

——————————————————–

Learn more about Robert Calhoun: Robert Calhoun is the Regional Economist covering the northeast for CoStar Group and is based in New York. Mr. Calhoun manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Before joining CoStar, Mr. Calhoun was a director of research at Annaly Capital Management, the largest publicly traded mortgage real estate investment trust. There he was accountable for the creation of proprietary research on the US economy, monetary policy and the regulatory environment to drive investment decisions across a portfolio of real estate-related assets that at times was larger than $100 billion. Mr. Calhoun graduated from Clemson University with a Masters in economics and a BA in business management. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, commercial realestate, costar, Economy, insight, local market, national market, prediction, recession, regional market, robert calhoun, technology

Current State of the U.S. Economy and Its Impact on Commercial Real Estate – Part I

Posted on December 7, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

With the GOP’s proposed tax bill on its way to conference committee to reconcile the House and Senate versions, Omni Realty Group chatted with CoStar’s Regional Economist for the northeast, Robert Calhoun, about the state of the U.S. economy.

For more than a decade, Robert has been an influential source of economic analysis as it relates to monetary policy and real estate markets. He manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Through this two part series, Robert shares a wealth of knowledge and insight in his answers to our questions. Let’s take a look at what we can learn about the current state of our economy and the largest threats and opportunities we might encounter in 2018 – Be sure to stay tuned for part II from this series as we diver deeper into commercial real estate and the economy!

Omni: From your perspective, how has 2017 fared? Is the U.S. economy where you thought it would be?

2017 has been another solid year in this recovery. Through three quarters of 2017, real GDP growth has averaged about 2.2% year-over-year, roughly in line with the average since 2010. We are on pace to add another ~2mm jobs this year, and while the rate of job growth has slowed, it’s impressive that we’re still adding this number of jobs in the 8^th year of a recovery.

The unemployment rate is down to 4.1% as of October 2017, not only a new low for this cycle but the lowest level since 2000. I expected roughly average growth in 2017, as well as a gradual slowdown in job creation, but I didn’t expect the unemployment rate to fall as much as it has. This took the Fed by surprise as well.

At the end of 2016, the Committee projected the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% by the end of 2017, and I think I was also in that camp. The Fed expected to hike the Fed Funds rate 3 times in 2017, and they are on pace to do exactly that. This is notable: 2017 is the first year in this recovery where the Fed was able to hit their goals for the path of the Fed Funds rate.

Omni: What are your thoughts on Jerome Powell [President Donald Trump’s pick to be the 16th chairman of the Federal Reserve]?

In my opinion, what you get with Powell is monetary policy continuity, which is going to be important for a few reasons. 2018 has the potential to be a challenging year, so there is no reason to amplify that by bringing in a new Chair with radically different ideas about how policy should be implemented.

The Fed intends to begin slowly winding down its mortgage and treasury holdings starting in late 2017, and the taper is set to intensify throughout 2018. Markets are unsure how smoothly this will go, so sticking to the status quo should help smooth out potential volatility. Also, the voting composition of the FOMC swings decidedly more hawkish next year. Picking Powell, a centrist who is already well known to market participants, reduces uncertainty about how the Fed will act in 2018.

Omni: What’s the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy right now? Do you see an economic recession coming anytime soon?

While it would be easy to forecast a looming recession just because the expansion is 8 years old, I’ll paraphrase the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen: expansions don’t die of old age. I’m not seeing any alarming imbalances as we have in certain past cycles, and monetary policy is still remarkably loose given how deep we are into this recovery. The biggest threat is probably an unexpected revival of inflationary pressures, which would cause the Fed to raise rates faster, and would cause a spike in interest rates that would be damaging to the economy.

Omni: Generally speaking, has increased regulation been a good thing?

Any increase or decrease in regulation has the effect of moving us along the spectrum between ease of doing business and increased stability. I think I can state, without causing much of an uproar, that going too far in either direction is a bad thing.

Prior to the financial crisis, we had probably gone too far in deregulating certain parts of the financial system, so the increase in regulation that followed is no surprise. That being said, we’re already seeing several bipartisan efforts to reduce the strain from increases in regulation. The House recently passed a bill that would “clarify and amend the High Volatility Commercial Real Estate bank capital rule.” Also, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-IA) is working with a handful of Democrats on a bill that would soften some parts of Dodd-Frank that are considered particularly hard on smaller regional and community banks. The government’s take on regulation is always a pendulum.

What particular insights did you find most compelling? Do you agree or disagree with Robert’s viewpoints? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

Now that we’ve taken a broad look at the health and future of the U.S. economy, stay tuned for part II of our interview series with Robert Calhoun to learn more specifically about how the economic climate and emerging technology stand to reshape the commercial real estate market in 2018 and beyond!

——————————————————–

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, Commercial Real Estate, costar, Economy, federal reserve, forecast, prediction, recession, recovery, regulation, robert calhoun, united states

What Real Estate Needs to Learn from the Legal Industry

Posted on October 15, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

This article was originally published on the Central Penn Business Journal and DukeLong.com.

The issue of conflicts of interest between parties exists in a variety of industries. Ethics rules prohibit a single lawyer from representing competing sides in the same transaction. It’s common sense. You can’t ensure fair and equal representation to competing parties if you represent both sides. And clients want more than just fair representation; they want to feel they have an advocate who puts their interests above all others.

So why then, are real estate agents not restricted from representing competing parties in the same way lawyers are? In Pennsylvania, as in many states across the United States, real estate agents are permitted to represent both a buyer and seller (or tenant and landlord) in the same real estate transaction. It’s great for the real estate agents since they make full commissions, but what about the clients they represent?

The regulations and restrictions (or lack thereof) surrounding a real estate agent’s conflicts of interest when representing both parties is cause for concern. If real estate agents were required to approach conflicts of interest in the same way lawyers do, here is how the real estate industry would be reshaped.

The Legal Model

The American Bar Association published and periodically revises Model Rules of Professional Conduct, which have been adopted as legally binding ethics rules governing lawyers in most States. The Model Rules govern conflicts of interest with both current and former clients. Under the Model Rules (and under the ethics rules of the States that have not adopted the Model Rules), law firms may not represent both parties in a single transaction. This means a buyer/tenant must have separate legal representation from the seller/landlord. This gives clients complete assurance that their lawyer is committed solely to their interests. Moreover, one party cannot be pressured into using the other party’s lawyer, because it simply isn’t an option.

Real vs. Perceived Conflicts of Interest: Does It Make a Difference?

Conflicts of interest between two parties can be real or perceived. While real estate agents may argue that they always take a fair and balanced approach in their real estate transactions, if they represent both parties how that can be guaranteed? If one party doesn’t get exactly what it wants, it may question whether its real estate agent did everything possible to represent its interests. It doesn’t make a difference whether a conflict of interest is real or perceived, for both parties to feel adequately represented they cannot use the same real estate agent.

Why Dual Agency Doesn’t Work

Full service commercial real estate firms and brokerage houses tout the fact that they can “do it all.” They represent both a buyer/tenant and seller/landlord in a real estate transaction through what is called dual agency. However, dual agency is not in the best interest of either party, just the real estate agent who makes commission on both sides.

In dual agency, a real estate agent is more likely to steer buyers/tenants toward properties they represent on behalf of their seller/landlord clients. When it comes to negotiating terms, parties represented by the same real estate agent have less negotiation power and may have to compromise more than they would have if they had exclusive representation. And the list of potential abuses goes on.

The challenge is many commercial buyers and tenants aren’t aware that they can work with a real estate agent who is 100% exclusive to representing the interests of the buyer/tenant, often at no cost to them. There are real estate firms right here in Central Pennsylvania that only represent corporate business space users (buyers and tenants) and have resolved to never represent landlords or developers. Buyers and tenants need to be made aware they have options for sole representation and it’s critical they seek this out as the first step when looking for commercial space.

One Real Life Example

In 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a challenge to dual agency in the case of Horiike vs. Coldwell Banker. The case has gone on to receive national attention regarding the practice of dual agency and the question of whether a single brokerage company can actually represent the interests of two competing parties in a fiduciary capacity.

The original case was based on a dispute regarding the square footage of a property purchased by the plaintiff, Hiroshi Horiike, who was represented by the same company marketing the property for sale, Coldwell Banker. The court determined that Coldwell Banker did not provide the same degree of care to the buyer as compared to the seller of the property, but owed both the same degree of care and representation.

Many of the world’s largest real estate companies both practice and encourage dual agency. The case of Horiike vs. Coldwell Banker brings to light the inherent conflicts of interest in such practices. Some states, like Colorado, have made dual agency illegal. It’s likely that California will follow suit. Given the national attention of this case, it’s reasonable to think other states will now consider outlawing dual agency as well, or at least putting regulations in place to reign in abuses.

The Issue from a Legal Perspective

Tim Anderson, Partner at Pepper Hamilton LLP, represents a variety of clients in real estate conveyancing, leasing, financing, foreclosures and litigation. He shares his perspective on conflicts of interest in real estate transactions.

“In real estate law, we take conflicts of interest very seriously. For example, we cannot represent both parties to a single transaction. We may represent each party in separate transactions if we conclude that we can provide competent and diligent representation to each affected client, the representation is not prohibited by law, and each affected client gives informed consent in writing,” explains Anderson.

“I routinely caution clients about the inherent risks of dual agency in real estate transactions. I warn clients about the risk that their agent’s representation of their interests may be limited by the same agent’s responsibilities to the other party. I’ve found that clients who agree to dual agency, because they think they can protect their own interests, often do not treat their own agent with complete candor,” says Anderson.

Lastly, Anderson offers this advice, “In my opinion, the real estate industry would benefit from adopting rules similar to the rules for lawyers. This does not necessarily require real estate agents to represent only buyers or sellers (landlords or tenants), but real estate agents should not try to represent the buyer and seller (landlord and tenant) in the same transaction.”

To close, I hope that the real estate industry as a whole will reflect on the ways in which other industries handle the issue of conflicts of interest. To allow even the perception and possibility of the conflicts of interest that occurs in dual agency is unfair and unnecessary.

To tenants and buyers looking for commercial space, I urge you to do your research and find an exclusive tenant representative or buyer’s agent who will strictly represent your interests in a real estate transaction. All parties are entitled to exclusive representation; be sure to seek out yours!

This article was originally published on the Central Penn Business Journal and DukeLong.com.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, buyers agent, conflict of interest, dual agency, exclusive, fair, law, lawyer, legal, mike kusher, Omni Realty Group, Tenant Representation, unbiased