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Real Estate Trends to Impact the United States in 2018

Posted on December 27, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Rapid technological advancements and significant demographic shifts significantly influence the real estate industry. These various factors like growing urbanization, longevity of Baby Boomers and differentiated lifestyle patterns of Millennials are changing the way people value real estate. Add into the mix macroeconomic and regulatory developments, and you have the perfect storm for some significant changes to come to the real estate market in 2018.

With the many changes that have already taken place in 2017, many real estate companies find themselves searching for ways in which they can gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in the New Year.

To achieve this, we must identify and monitor emerging trends that are likely to impact the economy moving into 2018. Take a look at the top trends that are shaping the U.S. real estate industry right now!

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Increasing interest rates could temper growth

Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in the short-to-medium term. Volatile global markets have led to continued low interest rates, but that’s expected to come to an end in 2018. Higher interest rates are likely to increase mortgage costs and could deter real estate investments to some extent.
Gross domestic product growth will likely increase 2.5 percent in 2018. It’s the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1% growth in 2016. The modest economic improvement could temper the pace of commercial real estate (CRE) transaction activity.
Improving labor markets and household wealth will boost consumer confidence. The U-5 unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached is expected to drop under 5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio is projected to peak in 2018, as retiring Baby Boomers may reduce the share of employed.

REGULATORY OUTLOOK: Greater compliance means greater cost

Increased compliance and administration costs will result from the new accounting standards on lease accounting and revenue recognition that will primarily impact real estate investment trusts (REITs) and engineering and construction (E&C) companies.
Risk retention rules will lower issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). We are also likely to see a reduction in capital availability in secondary and tertiary markets.
The Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act of 2015 will ease REIT tax provisions and R&D tax credits for E&C companies, while increasing the flexibility to invest in startups for R&D experimentation. However, corporate tax reforms will reduce flexibility for corporations to spin off real estate assets into REIT structures.

DISRUPTIVE TRENDS: These factors are reshaping the face of CRE

Collaboration and Sharing.These sound like two positive trends, right? They certainly are for startups who utilize new platforms and business models like Airbnb or WeWork to reduce their real estate overhead. However, this type of collaboration and sharing of space is disrupting the way organizations lease and use commercial real estate space for their businesses. Traditional CRE companies will need to rethink their approach toward space design, lease administration, and lease duration in order to compete.
CRE data is becoming more ubiquitous and transparent thanks to technological advancements. The traditional brokerage model is being threatened by the increasing ease and efficiency of online leasing. Traditional brokers will need to diversify their services to include consulting and collaboration.
A growing demand for mixed-use developments as consumers prefer to “live, work and play” in proximity. This demand is the result of a shortage of workers with strong STEM skills, rising urbanization and Millennials’ preference for an open and flexible work culture. Companies trying to compete for this type of talent should choose office locations in areas that cater to the living and working environments preferred by their ideal candidates.
Rising demand for fast and convenient online retailing is disrupting the retail and industrial markets. Innovations in speed and mode of delivery (such as same-day delivery and e-lockers) will decrease the demand for large retail and industrial spaces. This trend will also cause a blurring of the lines between these two properties. For example, some retail space could double as fulfillment centers. To stay afloat, retailers will need to try different store formats to appeal to the consumer, while industrial properties should focus on smaller, more flexible spaces located near cities.
A change in how we get around will also change how we use real estate. With each passing year, more and more people rely upon “pay-per-use” vehicles and rideshare platforms like Zipcar, Uber and Lyft. We also get closer to self-driving vehicles. This major disruption to the entire mobility ecosystem will result in fewer people owning and driving their own vehicles, especially in urban areas. This will free up large parking spaces in prime locations that can be put to different uses. Real estate companies should begin to explore ways to reduce and repurpose parking space as a means to generate more income.

Over the course of the next 12 months, the U.S. commercial and residential real estate industry can expect to be hit with various changes and challenges. Some of these changes may have a favorable impact, while others could impose some serious setbacks. For real estate businesses to gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in 2018, they should take note of these emerging trends and work on developing a strategy now to react to the changing market, when the time comes.

What real estate trend do you think will have the most significant impact on the United States in 2018? Share your insights by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, buyers agent, central pennsylvania, commercial, demand, Economy, growth, industry, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, prediction, regulation, residential, tenant representative, trends, united states

Current State of the U.S. Economy and Its Impact on Commercial Real Estate – Part II

Posted on December 12, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Continuing with part II from our series on the health and future of the U.S. economy, we again welcome the knowledge and insight of Robert Calhoun. Robert is the Northeast Regional Economist for CoStar Group where he manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Let’s now dive into what real estate market participants should be keeping a watchful eye on in 2018 – Be sure to also take a look back at part I from this series which focuses on the U.S. economy as a whole!

Omni: Debt drives real estate markets and there’s a flood of capital in the market right now. Is this a shoe waiting to drop?

I say that all the time: debt drives real estate markets. What you worry about from a capital markets standpoint is that a flood of capital leads to declining underwriting standards, and so far we aren’t seeing anything overly alarming on that front.

There has been some gradual loosening of underwriting standards in the CMBS space, but this has generally been met with demands of higher credit support by the rating agencies. Investors are still doing a good job of differentiating collateral and demanding higher yields for riskier deals. We are seeing a resurgence of CRE CLOs during this cycle, but the structure of these deals are much better than the previous cycle (simpler and easier to understand, more capital in the deals, etc.).

Omni: What is contributing to the widening gap between bid and ask prices in the commercial real estate market right now?

We’ve been watching the staring contest between buyers with dry powder and owners with big gains for some time. While many owners would probably like to take advantage of current valuations and harvest gains at low cap rates, they run the risk of having to redeploy that capital back out into the same market.

Many buyers, despite being flush with cash, are balking at current prices. And the deeper we get into this cycle, the harder it is to make deals pencil by assuming higher rents and higher occupancy into an uncertain future. I would say the widening of bid/ask spreads right now is a healthy thing, further evidence that market participants are staying somewhat disciplined.

A CRE investor has a couple of different dials he can toggle when making investment decisions: risk profile, return requirement, pace of investment. They are choosing to slow their investment pace instead of loosen their risk profile or lower their return requirements.

Omni: From a commercial real estate perspective, what are the most dramatic potential effects that we should brace ourselves for? In terms of the commercial real estate market, what will you be keeping a close eye on in 2018? What will be driving the volatility in 2018?

I’ll echo my comments from before: CRE fundamentals appear solid with no glaring red flags at the national level. The biggest risk to the commercial real estate market would be a sharp rise in interest rates, likely driven by an unforeseen pickup in inflation that causes the Fed to worry that it’s behind the curve. So far, inflation has been very well behaved.

I’ll be keeping a close eye on the unemployment rate and corresponding wage growth. At this stage in the cycle, with labor markets relatively tight, we’ve typically seen wage pressures materialize. As of the Fed’s most recent statement of economic projections, the Committee expects the unemployment rate to be 4.1% at the end of 2018. We are already at 4.1% as of October 2017. If the unemployment rate were to dip below 4.0% and inflation were to begin moving more quickly back toward the Fed’s 2.0% target, that could elicit a faster pace of rate hikes than is currently expected.

Omni: Do you think market participants are factoring the threat from technology into their investment decisions?

Technology is an interesting topic when it comes to commercial real estate. I think many market participants see CRE as an area of the economy that won’t be as easily “disrupted” by technology, but we’re already experiencing disruption! So much ink has been spilled over the Amazon effect on retail that I don’t need to say much here. WeWork and its $20B valuation, whatever you may think of it, is shaking up the office market. Even if a company doesn’t actually use WeWork space when they want to expand, couldn’t they take a page from their playbook and demand a shorter/more flexible lease in a traditional office building? How would that impact office valuations?

Technology like driverless cars won’t change people’s need to live SOMEWHERE, but it might change the shape of cities and neighborhoods, creating winners and losers. Technology is also changing the way investors think about real estate as an asset class. Priceline is currently valued at $84B while Marriott has a market cap of $46B. In that light, which his more valuable: owning the real estate or owning the customer relationship?

I’m hearing more chatter about how artificial intelligence and machine learning can begin to disrupt the CRE lending market, with algorithms taking the place of human underwriters. It’s easy to envision a company like Zillow disintermediating traditional real estate brokers by facilitating peer-to-peer home sales, and that same model could be extended into the commercial real estate market.

To answer your question (finally), I think it’s important for market participants to consider technological threats…but at the same time, nobody does a very good job of predicting an uncertain future! Picking winners and losers will be as challenging as always.

What appears to be most promising for 2018’s commercial real estate market? What is most concerning? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

In case you missed it, be sure to check out part I from our interview series with Robert Calhoun. In our first article, Robert shares insights into the health and future of the United States’ economy as a whole.

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Learn more about Robert Calhoun: Robert Calhoun is the Regional Economist covering the northeast for CoStar Group and is based in New York. Mr. Calhoun manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Before joining CoStar, Mr. Calhoun was a director of research at Annaly Capital Management, the largest publicly traded mortgage real estate investment trust. There he was accountable for the creation of proprietary research on the US economy, monetary policy and the regulatory environment to drive investment decisions across a portfolio of real estate-related assets that at times was larger than $100 billion. Mr. Calhoun graduated from Clemson University with a Masters in economics and a BA in business management. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, commercial realestate, costar, Economy, insight, local market, national market, prediction, recession, regional market, robert calhoun, technology

Current State of the U.S. Economy and Its Impact on Commercial Real Estate – Part I

Posted on December 7, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

With the GOP’s proposed tax bill on its way to conference committee to reconcile the House and Senate versions, Omni Realty Group chatted with CoStar’s Regional Economist for the northeast, Robert Calhoun, about the state of the U.S. economy.

For more than a decade, Robert has been an influential source of economic analysis as it relates to monetary policy and real estate markets. He manages a team of economists and analysts tasked with producing research at a local, regional and national level on commercial real estate, the economy and capital markets.

Through this two part series, Robert shares a wealth of knowledge and insight in his answers to our questions. Let’s take a look at what we can learn about the current state of our economy and the largest threats and opportunities we might encounter in 2018 – Be sure to stay tuned for part II from this series as we diver deeper into commercial real estate and the economy!

Omni: From your perspective, how has 2017 fared? Is the U.S. economy where you thought it would be?

2017 has been another solid year in this recovery. Through three quarters of 2017, real GDP growth has averaged about 2.2% year-over-year, roughly in line with the average since 2010. We are on pace to add another ~2mm jobs this year, and while the rate of job growth has slowed, it’s impressive that we’re still adding this number of jobs in the 8^th year of a recovery.

The unemployment rate is down to 4.1% as of October 2017, not only a new low for this cycle but the lowest level since 2000. I expected roughly average growth in 2017, as well as a gradual slowdown in job creation, but I didn’t expect the unemployment rate to fall as much as it has. This took the Fed by surprise as well.

At the end of 2016, the Committee projected the unemployment rate to reach 4.5% by the end of 2017, and I think I was also in that camp. The Fed expected to hike the Fed Funds rate 3 times in 2017, and they are on pace to do exactly that. This is notable: 2017 is the first year in this recovery where the Fed was able to hit their goals for the path of the Fed Funds rate.

Omni: What are your thoughts on Jerome Powell [President Donald Trump’s pick to be the 16th chairman of the Federal Reserve]?

In my opinion, what you get with Powell is monetary policy continuity, which is going to be important for a few reasons. 2018 has the potential to be a challenging year, so there is no reason to amplify that by bringing in a new Chair with radically different ideas about how policy should be implemented.

The Fed intends to begin slowly winding down its mortgage and treasury holdings starting in late 2017, and the taper is set to intensify throughout 2018. Markets are unsure how smoothly this will go, so sticking to the status quo should help smooth out potential volatility. Also, the voting composition of the FOMC swings decidedly more hawkish next year. Picking Powell, a centrist who is already well known to market participants, reduces uncertainty about how the Fed will act in 2018.

Omni: What’s the single biggest threat to the U.S. economy right now? Do you see an economic recession coming anytime soon?

While it would be easy to forecast a looming recession just because the expansion is 8 years old, I’ll paraphrase the Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen: expansions don’t die of old age. I’m not seeing any alarming imbalances as we have in certain past cycles, and monetary policy is still remarkably loose given how deep we are into this recovery. The biggest threat is probably an unexpected revival of inflationary pressures, which would cause the Fed to raise rates faster, and would cause a spike in interest rates that would be damaging to the economy.

Omni: Generally speaking, has increased regulation been a good thing?

Any increase or decrease in regulation has the effect of moving us along the spectrum between ease of doing business and increased stability. I think I can state, without causing much of an uproar, that going too far in either direction is a bad thing.

Prior to the financial crisis, we had probably gone too far in deregulating certain parts of the financial system, so the increase in regulation that followed is no surprise. That being said, we’re already seeing several bipartisan efforts to reduce the strain from increases in regulation. The House recently passed a bill that would “clarify and amend the High Volatility Commercial Real Estate bank capital rule.” Also, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-IA) is working with a handful of Democrats on a bill that would soften some parts of Dodd-Frank that are considered particularly hard on smaller regional and community banks. The government’s take on regulation is always a pendulum.

What particular insights did you find most compelling? Do you agree or disagree with Robert’s viewpoints? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

Now that we’ve taken a broad look at the health and future of the U.S. economy, stay tuned for part II of our interview series with Robert Calhoun to learn more specifically about how the economic climate and emerging technology stand to reshape the commercial real estate market in 2018 and beyond!

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[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, Commercial Real Estate, costar, Economy, federal reserve, forecast, prediction, recession, recovery, regulation, robert calhoun, united states

What Real Estate Needs to Learn from the Legal Industry

Posted on October 15, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

This article was originally published on the Central Penn Business Journal and DukeLong.com.

The issue of conflicts of interest between parties exists in a variety of industries. Ethics rules prohibit a single lawyer from representing competing sides in the same transaction. It’s common sense. You can’t ensure fair and equal representation to competing parties if you represent both sides. And clients want more than just fair representation; they want to feel they have an advocate who puts their interests above all others.

So why then, are real estate agents not restricted from representing competing parties in the same way lawyers are? In Pennsylvania, as in many states across the United States, real estate agents are permitted to represent both a buyer and seller (or tenant and landlord) in the same real estate transaction. It’s great for the real estate agents since they make full commissions, but what about the clients they represent?

The regulations and restrictions (or lack thereof) surrounding a real estate agent’s conflicts of interest when representing both parties is cause for concern. If real estate agents were required to approach conflicts of interest in the same way lawyers do, here is how the real estate industry would be reshaped.

The Legal Model

The American Bar Association published and periodically revises Model Rules of Professional Conduct, which have been adopted as legally binding ethics rules governing lawyers in most States. The Model Rules govern conflicts of interest with both current and former clients. Under the Model Rules (and under the ethics rules of the States that have not adopted the Model Rules), law firms may not represent both parties in a single transaction. This means a buyer/tenant must have separate legal representation from the seller/landlord. This gives clients complete assurance that their lawyer is committed solely to their interests. Moreover, one party cannot be pressured into using the other party’s lawyer, because it simply isn’t an option.

Real vs. Perceived Conflicts of Interest: Does It Make a Difference?

Conflicts of interest between two parties can be real or perceived. While real estate agents may argue that they always take a fair and balanced approach in their real estate transactions, if they represent both parties how that can be guaranteed? If one party doesn’t get exactly what it wants, it may question whether its real estate agent did everything possible to represent its interests. It doesn’t make a difference whether a conflict of interest is real or perceived, for both parties to feel adequately represented they cannot use the same real estate agent.

Why Dual Agency Doesn’t Work

Full service commercial real estate firms and brokerage houses tout the fact that they can “do it all.” They represent both a buyer/tenant and seller/landlord in a real estate transaction through what is called dual agency. However, dual agency is not in the best interest of either party, just the real estate agent who makes commission on both sides.

In dual agency, a real estate agent is more likely to steer buyers/tenants toward properties they represent on behalf of their seller/landlord clients. When it comes to negotiating terms, parties represented by the same real estate agent have less negotiation power and may have to compromise more than they would have if they had exclusive representation. And the list of potential abuses goes on.

The challenge is many commercial buyers and tenants aren’t aware that they can work with a real estate agent who is 100% exclusive to representing the interests of the buyer/tenant, often at no cost to them. There are real estate firms right here in Central Pennsylvania that only represent corporate business space users (buyers and tenants) and have resolved to never represent landlords or developers. Buyers and tenants need to be made aware they have options for sole representation and it’s critical they seek this out as the first step when looking for commercial space.

One Real Life Example

In 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a challenge to dual agency in the case of Horiike vs. Coldwell Banker. The case has gone on to receive national attention regarding the practice of dual agency and the question of whether a single brokerage company can actually represent the interests of two competing parties in a fiduciary capacity.

The original case was based on a dispute regarding the square footage of a property purchased by the plaintiff, Hiroshi Horiike, who was represented by the same company marketing the property for sale, Coldwell Banker. The court determined that Coldwell Banker did not provide the same degree of care to the buyer as compared to the seller of the property, but owed both the same degree of care and representation.

Many of the world’s largest real estate companies both practice and encourage dual agency. The case of Horiike vs. Coldwell Banker brings to light the inherent conflicts of interest in such practices. Some states, like Colorado, have made dual agency illegal. It’s likely that California will follow suit. Given the national attention of this case, it’s reasonable to think other states will now consider outlawing dual agency as well, or at least putting regulations in place to reign in abuses.

The Issue from a Legal Perspective

Tim Anderson, Partner at Pepper Hamilton LLP, represents a variety of clients in real estate conveyancing, leasing, financing, foreclosures and litigation. He shares his perspective on conflicts of interest in real estate transactions.

“In real estate law, we take conflicts of interest very seriously. For example, we cannot represent both parties to a single transaction. We may represent each party in separate transactions if we conclude that we can provide competent and diligent representation to each affected client, the representation is not prohibited by law, and each affected client gives informed consent in writing,” explains Anderson.

“I routinely caution clients about the inherent risks of dual agency in real estate transactions. I warn clients about the risk that their agent’s representation of their interests may be limited by the same agent’s responsibilities to the other party. I’ve found that clients who agree to dual agency, because they think they can protect their own interests, often do not treat their own agent with complete candor,” says Anderson.

Lastly, Anderson offers this advice, “In my opinion, the real estate industry would benefit from adopting rules similar to the rules for lawyers. This does not necessarily require real estate agents to represent only buyers or sellers (landlords or tenants), but real estate agents should not try to represent the buyer and seller (landlord and tenant) in the same transaction.”

To close, I hope that the real estate industry as a whole will reflect on the ways in which other industries handle the issue of conflicts of interest. To allow even the perception and possibility of the conflicts of interest that occurs in dual agency is unfair and unnecessary.

To tenants and buyers looking for commercial space, I urge you to do your research and find an exclusive tenant representative or buyer’s agent who will strictly represent your interests in a real estate transaction. All parties are entitled to exclusive representation; be sure to seek out yours!

This article was originally published on the Central Penn Business Journal and DukeLong.com.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, buyers agent, conflict of interest, dual agency, exclusive, fair, law, lawyer, legal, mike kusher, Omni Realty Group, Tenant Representation, unbiased

The Challenges of Commercial Leasing In Central Pennsylvania

Posted on September 20, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Office Leasing No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

The Challenges of Commercial Leasing In Central Pennsylvania

When it comes to commercial leasing in Pennsylvania, tenants face some unique challenges. However, there are also some challenges we share with tenants all across the United States. For businesses, the terms of your commercial real estate lease can have a profound impact on your ability to conduct business and earn a profit.

The best way to navigate the challenges of commercial leasing, right here in Central Pennsylvania as well as nationwide, is to be aware of potential roadblocks and develop a plan to maneuver around them, when necessary. Here’s what you need to know.

Permitted Use – About 57 percent of Pennsylvania’s townships and boroughs (the 2,562 municipal corporations ) have their own zoning ordinance. This can make commercial leasing complicated and uncertain for businesses to know whether they are adhering to the permitted use of their commercial lease. Often municipal zoning ordinances will use similar names for zoning districts (e.g. Business Commercial, Business General, and Commercial General). However, permitted uses vary from zoning ordinance to zoning ordinance. Unfortunately, the due diligence of checking to make sure a commercial space is zoned for its desired use falls on the potential tenant. Typically, landlords will not directly warrant that a space is suitable for a particular use.

Building Codes – In 1999, the Pennsylvania Legislature passed Act 45, the Pennsylvania Uniform Construction Code Act of 1999 (since amended in 2004), mandating a statewide building code across Pennsylvania. Much like permitted use, each of the municipal corporations within Pennsylvania have the independence to determine whether or not they want to administer and enforce the Uniform Construction Code (UCC) locally.

Over 90% of Pennsylvania’s 2,562 municipalities have elected to administer and enforce the UCC locally using their own employees or via certified third-party agencies that they have retained. If a municipality has “opted out” the Department of Labor and Industry is responsible for all commercial code enforcement in the municipality. As you might expect, even though there is a statewide building code, enforcement can vary greatly form municipality to municipality.

Delivery – Pennsylvania’s complicated building codes trickle down to further complicate the delivery of a commercial space. A commercial lease should clearly communicate the expected work to be done by each party to prepare the space for occupancy and identify the deadlines for completing such work. This is called the Work Letter.

The Work Letter, typically an exhibit to the lease, is the most overlooked part of the lease negotiation. What makes it a challenge is that companies invariably sign leases before knowing what work is needed. That’s because architectural drawings are too expensive and time-consuming to produce for space that may never be rented. A smart tenant will try to predict potential problems and negotiate lease provisions to cover them. The tenant will then secure price estimates based on preliminary drawings for the work.

Subleasing – Be sure to take a critical look at sublet clause in your lease agreement. As many businesses need to ebb and flow in order to stay afloat, you don’t want to be stuck in a lease that no longer fits your needs, without the ability to sublease to another entity. Whether you are expanding or contracting, both scenarios may require you to quickly change the size of your work space. Being stuck in a commercial space that no longer fits your needs can greatly hinder the success of your business.

Term – Similar to wanting flexibility in your subleasing options, a challenge of commercial leasing can be negotiating your lease term. Often Landlords will want a minimum term of three years, which for some businesses is nearly three years too long. Small businesses and start-ups need flexibility, such as shorter lease terms and very few strings, to establish themselves in the market. Landlords prefer longer term leases for a stable rent base.

How likely is it that your business will need a different amount of work space in the next year, three years or five years? No matter how much a space may seem perfect for your business, if the terms of your lease lock you into a space that may not be able to accommodate your changing needs, you could face challenges and regrets in the future.

What issues have you run into as it relates to leasing commercial real estate such as retail space, office space or industrial space? Share your story by providing a comment below.

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Central PA Experiences Highest Number of Retail Store Closings Since Recession

Posted on March 7, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

After retailers come off the holiday boost, the first quarter of the year is a common time for stores to announce closures. Between January and March, retailers assess their portfolios and make decisions to shed underperforming stores. Central Pennsylvania is no exception. In recent months, several anchor retail spaces have made the decision to close their doors, including Sears, Kmart, and hh gregg as well as a growing list of other retailers struggling to stay in the black.

What factors are fueling these store closings? Well, there are a few including industry consolidation and competition from online shopping that is causing companies to rethink the expense of brick and mortar locations. Experts predict that 2017’s store closure season will result in the most store closures the market has seen since 2010, when we were coming out of the recession.

The good news is that for most store closings, in Central Pennsylvania, there is another retailer ready to move in. For the many other stores who rely on their anchor retailers to pull business into a location, such as a mall or shopping complex, it’s important to have a thriving business in that space. Here’s a look at some of the retail locations in Central PA that will be getting new tenants in the coming months.

Sears in the Capital City Mall will become Dick’s Sporting Goods

In early February it was announced that Dick’s Sporting Goods plans to take over the space being left by Sears at the Capital City Mall in Cumberland County, and will relocate its existing store in Hampden Township. PREIT, the Philadelphia-based real estate investment trust, is working to replace closing Sears stores at malls around the region.

It’s interesting and important that a business like PREIT is assisting in finding suitable tenants to fill the vacated space by Sears. This is a critical step to ensure that mall’s business is not adversely affected by Sears moving out, but rather has the opportunity to drive in even more business with the selection of the right replacement retailer.

Kmart on the Carlisle Pike will become Marshalls, Homegoods and Stein Mart

Sears Holdings Corp. also announced in January that it would be closing two Kmarts in Central Pennsylvania. The closings were part of a larger retrenchment by the company. Plans already are under way to replace one of those Kmarts, in Hampden Township with the thriving boutique department store chain, Marshalls, Homegoods and Stein Mart. Aside from Marshalls, this will be the first Homegoods and Stein Mart on the West Shore.

More Retail Chains Struggling to Stay Afloat

Bon-Ton – According to Time magazine, Bon-Ton has closed “at least” 6 stores in the past two years and its store sales were down 3.1 percent this past holiday season.

J.C. Penney – JCP plans to close 130 to 140 stores and offer buyouts to 6,000 workers as the department-store industry sags in competition with online sellers and nimble niche retailers.

Macy’s – Macy’s recently announced plans to cut 100 of its 675 full-line stores.

Claire’s Stores – According to Reuters, Claire’s debt load has swollen to $2.4 billion, as more people shop online and take teen and pre-teen girls to malls less frequently.

David’s Bridal – Time reported that David’s Bridal moved from stable to negative in September 2016. The store’s CEO also resigned last year after just 3 years on the job with no real explanation.

Gymboree – Moody’s downgraded this children’s apparel retailer in November 2016. The company then announced that its CEO would be stepping down amid a likely $1 billion debt restructuring deal.

Crew – The company is placing a new emphasis on online sales and athleisure wear, likely due to a possible $2 billion debt restructuring effort that was announced in 2016.

Nine West – A Fitch Ratings report from September 2016 listed the women’s shoes and handbags chain as among those at risk for bankruptcy.

Payless – This discount shoe retailer announced a debt restructuring plan that may include the shuttering of 1,000 stores or even filing for bankruptcy.

And the list keeps growing! See even more retail chains that have been marked as in financial distress.

Final Thoughts: What this means for Central Pennsylvania

The majority of retailers who are closing their doors or struggling to stay afloat sell clothing and goods. In contrast, grocery stores and restaurants remain, for the most part, white hot. Food retailers could become the new, true anchor for malls and shopping centers. E-commerce won’t replace going out to eat and while some grocery chains are looking to expand into online shopping and front door delivery, that majority of people still prefer to shop at a brick and mortar location.

It’s also important to note that though we’ve experienced quite a few retailers closing their doors, it’s not all doom and gloom for Central PA’s retail real estate market. Rising wages, job growth and lower gas prices are expected to stimulate more consumer spending. Though it may seem like a lot of store closings right now, retailers will soon find the balance between e-commerce and brick and mortar locations they need to “right the ship” and stay in business.

What retail chain are you most shocked to see close its doors? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, businesses, central penn business journal, central pennsylvania, closings, coming soon, Commercial Real Estate, cpbj, Economy, growth, homegoods, kmart, malls, marshalls, Mike Kushner, new, Omni Realty Group, opening, redevelopment, retail, sears, stein mart, stores, trends

How Medical Marijuana Will Impact Real Estate in Pennsylvania

Posted on August 31, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

How Medical Marijuana Will Impact Real Estate in Pennsylvania

Since the legalization of medical marijuana in April, the Pennsylvania Department of Health has placed a lot of focus on developing a program that is expected to be operational by 2018. In fact, temporary regulations were just rolled out to give growers and processors an idea of the rules they will need to follow.

All types of industries are anxiously anticipating the economic impact of legalized medical marijuana. For some businesses, it will be a major boost. For others, it will hardly move the needle. It makes sense that growing, processing and dispensing will require new space, but how much will this really impact real estate? Let’s take a look.

The Potential Impact on Local Real Estate

While it may seem like medical marijuana growers and processors will be filling up industrial real estate space all across the commonwealth, this isn’t the case. Strict regulations allow for limited growing permits based on factors such as population, access to transportation and the number of people who have qualifying conditions for medical marijuana.

In total, there are 50 dispensary permits (which include 3 locations per permit), 25 grower/processor permits and 8 clinical research permits (which include grower/processor ability and 6 dispensary locations, but must be partnered with a medical research facility). The 25 grower/processor permits plus the 8 clinical research permits mean that just 33 growing locations are permitted. Spread out across Pennsylvania, this is not a huge impact on industrial real estate.

Growers and processors will be looking for warehouses of various sizes between 50,000 and 200,000 square-feet in size. They may also be interested in a property with extra land to use for constructing greenhouses. There are enough existing properties that fit this criteria that it is not expected that new warehouses will be built for the specific purpose of growing medical marijuana. Rather, vacant warehouses will be gutted and retrofitted with water systems, climate control and HVAC.

Additionally, regulations allow for 198 dispensary locations where medical marijuana can be purchased by people with qualifying conditions. Each will require real estate that’s a mix between retail and office space.

“Dispensaries will be a combination of your local Rite Aid and a doctor’s office,” explains Andrew Blasco, Executive Director of Pennsylvania Medical Cannabis Industry Group (PAMCIG). “They will sell medical marijuana and related items like vaporizers in a secure and clinic-like environment.”

The biggest impact won’t be the sale of real estate. Rather, it’s the 12,000 permanent jobs plus many more temporary jobs created by the 198 dispensaries and 33 growing and processing locations.

The Industry to Benefit the Most

So if it’s not real estate, then what industry really stands to benefit the most from the legalization of medical marijuana? The answer may surprise you. Growing and processing requires a great deal of energy. Electric power companies will essentially gain a whole new industry of very loyal customers who rely upon energy use 24/7.

“Each growing and processing location will use about the same amount of electricity as a 16-story hotel. Combined, that’s like Pennsylvania gaining 33 new hotels and fully powering them around the clock,” says Blasco.

Additionally, there will be a niche market for architects, engineers and contractors who specialize in retrofitting warehouses to be used for growing medical marijuana. These facilities have very specific requirements, not only for climate control but for security purposes. Companies with this specialty would be highly sought after by permit holders.

While there is a lot we can anticipate, the full impact of the legalization of medical marijuana won’t be felt until regulations are finalized and businesses are able to begin growing. PAMCIG expects regulations for grower/processors to be done by mid-late September, while temporary regulations for the entire program can be expected to be completed by Christmas.

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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ABC’s of Commercial Real Estate: What you need to know about each classification of office space

Posted on June 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Office Leasing No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

You are likely aware that there are different classifications of office space, specifically Class A, B and C. But what qualities determine the letter associated with any given commercial property? Is it the location, the layout, the finishes or the amenities?

The answer is it has to do with all of these things! The classification of office space is very important to keep in mind both as a real estate investor and as a business tenant. Your budget and use of the space will help determine the class best suited for your needs. When looking to rent or buy commercial real estate, you can save a lot of time and frustration by teaming up with an experienced tenant representative or buyer agent who can advise you on the most appropriate class.

Here’s an overview of the pros and cons of each of the three classifications of office real estate!

Class A

Overview: As you might expect by the name, Class A office space is considered extremely desirable investment-grade properties and command the highest rents or sale prices compared to other buildings in the same market. These buildings are in prime locations with efficient tenant layouts that function as well as they look. Some Class A office space is an architectural or historical landmark designed by prominent architects. Simply put, Class A office space is for the renter or investor who wants the highest level of quality and convenience and is willing to pay a premium for it.

Pros: With Class A office space, you know you’re getting the best – the best location, layout, finishes and amenities. You are likely to have other desirable businesses as your “neighbors” in the same building which can increase the value of your space. You can also rest assured knowing the space will be well maintained for the premium price, meaning less headaches or inconveniences for you in the long run.

Cons: This class of space comes with the highest rent or sale prices. You may also have less negotiation power since the space you’re getting is usually in top condition with every advantage to drive the price high – including many businesses who are eager to jump on the space if you don’t.

How It Relates to the Local Market: The Central Pennsylvania submarket has 93 existing buildings that are classified as Class A. Combined, that’s a total RBA of 8,820,990 square-feet. After submarkets Philadelphia CBD/Non-CBD and Southern New Jersey, Central PA is the submarket with the lowest vacancy rate in CoStar’s Philadelphia Office Market Area, coming in at 9.9% in first quarter 2016. The average asking rental rate for this the first quarter is $19.78 which is the third lowest rate in the market area.

Additionally, it’s worth noting that just because two buildings are both considered Class A, does not mean they are equal. This is all the more reason to work with an experienced tenant representative who can help you find the best space at the best price to meet your needs. Just take a look at the example of these two buildings in the Central PA submarket below. Both are Class A, but for which property would you be willing to pay the premium price?

Class A Office Space located at 100 Sterling Parkway, Mechanicsburg, PA

Class A Office Space located at 3 Crossgate Drive, Mechanicsburg, PA

Class B

Overview: Class B office space is a step down from Class A space in its location, design, quality and amenities. As such, this space carries a lower price tag. Class B buildings offer utilitarian space without special attractions and have “ordinary” design, compared to Class A. These buildings typically have average to good maintenance, management and tenants. They are less appealing to tenants than Class A properties, and may be deficient in a number of respects including floor plans, condition and facilities. They lack prestige and must depend chiefly on a lower price to attract tenants and investors.

Pros: Since Class B office space is “middle of the road” for the classes, you have the advantage of getting a better work environment than Class C for a price that’s less expensive than Class A. As an owner or investors of Class B space, you’re likely to find many tenants whose budget and expectations align best with Class B space.

Cons: On the flip side, Class B space has several drawbacks to consider for the cost savings. It’s not likely to be in as prime of a location as Class A nor have the same amenities and quality of finishes. You may find the layout to be less convenient and the building and its other tenants to be “less prestigious” than Class A.

How It Relates to the Local Market: The Central Pennsylvania submarket has 1,303 existing buildings that are classified as Class B. Combined, that’s a total RBA of 28,378,254 square-feet. With a vacancy rate of 7.7% in first quarter 2016, it is the lowest of any submarket in CoStar’s Philadelphia Office Market Area though it’s average asking rental rate is only the third least expensive at $17.36, coming in higher than I-81 Corridor and Southern New Jersey. If you find it overwhelming to understand and interpret the local market trends, a tenant representative/buyer agent can guide you with knowledge and expertise. He or she knows how these trends impact demand and pricing and can use it as leverage to help you negotiate the best deal.

Here are two examples of Class B office space so you can see the variations within a single class.

Class B Office Space located at 200 N. Third St., Harrisburg, PA

Class B Office Space located at 204 S. 3rd St., Boiling Springs, PA

Class C

Overview: Class C office space describes buildings that generally qualify as no-frills, older buildings that offer basic space and command the lowest rents or sale prices compared to other buildings in the same market. Such buildings typically have below-average maintenance and management, and could have mixed or low tenant prestige. Things like inferior elevators, mechanical or electrical systems help reduce the cost, but also increase the possible headache for tenants. These buildings lack prestige and must depend chiefly on a lower price to attract tenants and investors.

Pros: The biggest benefit of Class C office space is its low price in comparison to Class A and B. If you’re looking for a simple and understated work space with zero frills, Class C might be a great option to help you stick within your budget while still gaining the space you need to grow your business.

Cons: When looking at Class C space, you need to keep your expectations in check. This is the lowest of the classes and likely to be the least desirable work conditions as well. There may be things that need obvious repair, the building and its location may leave a lot to be desired and your neighboring tenants are not likely to be prestigious businesses. Having said that, sometimes you can get lucky and find a Class C space in an area that still has “good bones” and a lot to offer the right business. It’s always important to keep an open mind, especially when working with a limited budget!

How It Relates to the Local Market: The Central Pennsylvania submarket has 2,162 existing buildings that are classified as Class C. Combined, that’s a total RBA of 16,600,363 square-feet. With a vacancy rate of 5.1% in first quarter 2016, Central PA has the second to lowest vacancy rate in CoStar’s Philadelphia Office Market Area. It’s average asking rental rate for the first quarter is $14.99 which is the second lowest only to I-81 Corridor.

Again, here are two examples of Class C office space so you can see the variations within a single class. Depending upon your requirements, Class C office space might be just what you need, but make sure you work with a real estate broker who exclusively represents tenants and buyers to ensure you’re getting a fair and favorable deal!

Class C Office Space located at 4655 Linglestown Rd, Harrisburg, PA

Class C Office Space located at 1505 Market St., Camp Hill, PA

What other questions do you have about the different classifications of commercial office space? Ask by commenting below!

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Central Pennsylvania’s Largest Retail, Industrial and Office Lease Deals in 2015

Posted on March 23, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

The New Year is well under way, but before we get too far into 2016, it’s worth taking a look back at the largest commercial lease deals that occurred in the Central Pennsylvania market in 2015. These deals represent significant trends and help predict where the market may be headed in future quarters.

Each sector within the commercial real estate market – retail, office and industrial – experienced a unique trend worth noting. Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the largest lease deals that occurred in Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Lancaster and Lebanon counties for the retail, office, and industrial markets in 2015.

Largest Retail Lease Deals

1. Community Aid leased the first floor of a Class B retail space located at 25-31 Rohrerstown Road, Lancaster from Urban Edge Properties. The 40,712 square-foot lease was signed in January 2015 and began in June 2015.