The Central Pennsylvania retail real estate submarket closed First Quarter 2015 with some good news and some bad news. On a positive note, the quoted rental rate is the highest it has been in nearly four years. However, this data is quickly overshadowed by the submarket’s negative net absorption which plummeted 316,783 square feet in a single quarter. Most concerning is how Harrisburg Area East has appeared to bear the brunt of this drop.
So what has gone on in the local retail real estate market this past quarter? And what could be the cause of this major shift in net absorption? Let’s first take a look at what the numbers are saying and then apply them to what this means for the health of the market.
Top Under Construction Properties:
The Central Pennsylvania submarket has two retail properties that are under construction that are among the Top 15 for First Quarter 2015. Coming in at number six, Messina Highlands has an RBA of 30,000 square-feet and is 45% preleased. This property is expected to be delivered in Second Quarter 2015. Number 15 on the list is a property located at 108 Pauline Drive in York, Pennsylvania. This is expected to deliver an RBA of 7,200 square-feet in Fourth Quarter 2015 and is not preleased.
Select Top Retail Leases:
Out of the Select Top Retail Leases that were signed in First Quarter 2015, there were two Central Pennsylvania properties that made it to the top 10. Coming in at number three, the 46,158 square-foot Toy “R” Us, located in Harrisburg Area West was leased by an unlisted tenant. At number seven, a 14,976 square-foot property located at 611 N. 12th Street in Harrisburg Area East was leased by Save-A-Lot.
Vacancy and Availability:
First Quarter 2015 closed with 4,799,169 square-feet of vacant space. The vacancy % jumped from 5.7% last quarter to 6.0% this quarter. It appears the dip we saw in this number throughout Second, Third and Fourth Quarter 2014 is returning to its higher average in the 6’s, but not nearly as high as it was two years ago at this time. No new buildings were delivered in this quarter, so the total RBA stays put at 60,315,522 square-feet.
Absorption and Demand:
The net absorption was the biggest shift we saw in First Quarter 2015. Last quarter ended with a positive 62,480 square-feet, but this number since dropped to negative 254,303 square-feet. This is by far the lowest number we have seen in the Central Pennsylvania retail market in nearly four years. The closest comparison was back in Second Quarter 2012 with a negative net absorption of 49,528 square-feet – but still far off from where we are now.
Looking specifically at Harrisburg Area East, this submarket experienced a negative net absorption of 237,665 square-feet. In comparison to the rest of the submarket, Harrisburg Area West maintained a positive net absorption of 45,041 square-feet as well as York County with 48,431. The rest of the Central Pennsylvania submarket closed the Quarter with a negative net absorption, but not nearly as low as Harrisburg Area East. Adams County ended with negative 3,672 square-feet; Lancaster County ended with negative 98,938 square feet; and Perry County ended with negative 7,500 square-feet.
Rental Rates:
The quoted rental rate for First Quarter 2015 is $11.51. This is a mere penny increase from the previous quarter, which is just enough to bring it to the highest rate we have seen in Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market in nearly four years.
Our Summary/Analysis:
In some markets, retailers that are back in expansion mode are bumping up against a big obstacle – a lack of inventory when it comes to good real estate locations. The limited supply of new retail construction has been a huge help to improving absorption and vacancies. However, the Harrisburg East Submarket which is part of the Central Pennsylvania Submarket Cluster (including Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Perry and York counties) struggled in Q1 2015. The major contributors were the closing of a Sears store in the Lebanon Plaza Mall and the Kmart at 2090 Lincoln Highway in Lancaster.
Sears Holdings Corporation, the company that runs Sears and Kmart, has a problem. They have a lot of real estate and not enough sales to keep all that real estate busy. As a result, they are forced to close stores that underperform or as their leases expire. In buildings they own or hold long-term leases, they often opt to rent out space to other businesses to try and minimize expenses as much as possible.
Harrisburg East experienced an unfortunate setback in Q1, but as a whole, the Central Pennsylvania submarket’s economic health looks hopeful for the remaining quarters. It’s important that we continue to watch other Sears Holdings Corporation’s real estate locations as well as any other big businesses that are struggling and closing retail locations as a result.
What other trends in the retail real estate market have you seen take place in First Quarter 2015? Share your insights by commenting below!