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How Central PA’s Growing Population Impacts Local Businesses

Posted on October 25, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

According to a 2018 report from the Pennsylvania Data Center, Pennsylvania’s population is expected to grow approximately 1% from the 2010 to the 2020 population, which is 1% better than no growth or a loss. What’s even more remarkable, is Pennsylvania’s growth is focused in about 16 counties, 14 of which are in Pennsylvania’s South Central Region, South East Region and Lehigh Valley, including Pennsylvania’s fastest growing county population in our own Cumberland County, here in South Central PA.

Furthermore, estimated population growth in those 14 counties is about 3.8%, which is driving Pennsylvania’s overall modest population growth, while counties in Pennsylvania’s West and Northern Tier are losing population with only Butler and Centre Counties showing expected population growth.

All of this data raises a very important question…

How does Central Pennsylvania’s changing population stand to impact the economic development of our local businesses?

To help answer this, we asked David Black, President and CEO of the Harrisburg Regional Chamber and CREDC, to weigh in from his perspective and the changes he is seeing taking place in Central Pennsylvania. Here is what he shared.

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Focusing on South Central Pennsylvania, which includes Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York, it’s pretty good news for us. Population growth drives demands for products, services and community amenities – quality of life factors. The quality of life factors – everything from good restaurants, entertainment, quality public education, exceptional health care, transportation access and cost of living – are in part driven by more people paying more taxes and needing more services that feed into our positive economic cycle.

Given our region’s transportation advantage via highways, rail and air and other amenities, South Central Pennsylvania is a great place to live, raise a family and have fun, plus we are close enough that if large metros like Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia or New York is your thing, just a few hours will get you there. Quality of life issues help to attract and retain workforce, which is the business community’s number one issue these days, due largely to the fact that 10,000 baby boomers nationwide are retiring each and every day, leaving workforce challenges in many industries.

People want to live in vibrant communities. Some people prefer urban lifestyles, some are suburbanites while still others prefer the more natural rural lifestyles. Guess what? South Central Pennsylvania has it all. You can live on your 10 acres in Perry County and be to work in 30 minutes in downtown Harrisburg or walk to your job in center city Harrisburg from your apartment downtown, or your own home in Midtown, or commute 10 or 15 minutes from your suburban community to your job.

Population growth helps to drive business growth, it helps to drive additional growth in our region. While we think of ourselves as Harrisburg or Lancaster or York, commuting patterns show us that people commute from county to county to work because they can. I have a theory, with no disrespect to Lebanon County, that everyone in the Palmyra area actually works in Dauphin County at someplace with Hershey in the name! Businesses provide jobs, but people with the ability to spend drive local economies while our strategic location and transportation advantage help to connect us to the global economy and make South Central Pennsylvania such a special place to call home.

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To offer additional insight, specifically on working age population growth in Pennsylvania, we asked Ben Atwood of CoStar, a national commercial real estate research firm.

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One of Costar’s recent articles entitled “Latest Census Data Shows Lehigh Valley Leading Pennsylvania in Working-Age Population Growth” stated that the latest data from the Census Bureau shows Pennsylvania continues struggling to lure in new industries and working age residents. The U.S. population aged 20-64 increased by 0.25% last year, but of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties, only seven surpassed this growth rate and 55 experienced net declines.

Harrisburg and its satellite markets are pretty underdeveloped (excepting Lancaster), relatively speaking. And the lack of modern office supply and relatively stagnant population growth means there likely won’t be major companies relocating into the area. Right now, that capital investment would have to be largely local, and how much are people locally willing to risk?

Central PA is in the position to grow in ways other areas in the state aren’t, but that doesn’t mean that growth will be rapid, or even guaranteed. The new developments will be riskier, hampering investor interest. This combined with stagnant, even waning growth in working age population can be cause for concern both near and long-term.

To some extent, the optimism about population growth is misplaced because it could just mean these areas will have a slightly easier go of it over the next few decades, as automation continues to eat away at blue collar jobs in retail, shipping, and professional services in the Commonwealth’s smaller markets.

Things change and evolve, and no one can predict the future, but a lot of growth in these areas is in transportation and manufacturing, industries with long term automation risks, and there’s plenty of reasons to believe automation will expand into white collar employment in the near future.

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Omni Realty Group is very grateful for David and Ben’s expertise and input. It’s fascinating, yet not surprising that population growth can have such a profound impact on quite literally everything else. Here in Central Pennsylvania we have a valuable opportunity to harness this growth and use it to fuel our economy. This further emphasizes the point that there are many unique benefits to live, work, and play in this region. Whether you call Central Pennsylvania home, are employed in the region, or simply enjoy visiting to experience its social offerings, you are playing an important role in the growth of our economy.

How else do you feel that our region’s changing population stands to impact local businesses? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Beyond the Bio with Mark Disanto from Triple Crown

Posted on October 21, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Guest Blogger No Comments

For more than four decades, Triple Crown Corporation has shaped Pennsylvania real estate through construction, land acquisition, and residential and commercial property management. The company has built an impressive portfolio of properties ranging from warehouses, office and retail space, rental communities, and even vacant lots that can be developed into just about anything to need.

At the heart of Triple Crown Corporation is its people. As part of the senior leadership team, Mark Disanto, the company’s CEO offers valuable insight into the industry, and the vision for the company. Mark has built a successful career from a blend of hard work, knowledge, and experience. But beyond his professional resume, there is a lot we can learn from Mark on a more personal level.

Take a look as Omni Realty Group goes “beyond the bio” and asks Mark for answers to questions you’re not likely to read on his Linkedin profile.

Omni: Describe a “typical” work day for you.

Mark Disanto: A typical day for me starts around 5:30 or 6:00 AM. I either exercise at home or play tennis in the morning. I am usually at the office between 7:00 and 8:00 AM and very rarely leave before 6:00 PM. Throw in a couple nighttime meetings with municipalities and extra time on Saturdays and in the evenings and the work week is usually 60 to 70 hours.

Omni: What is the best part of your job?

Mark Disanto: I have great flexibility in my job. I have time in the office. I have time inspecting job sites and looking at new acquisitions. I like the flexibility. However, the best part of my job is watching the company grow and seeing the new leadership expand the company both in the property management and construction divisions as well as our geographical footprint.

Omni: What has been the most difficult part of your job?

Mark Disanto: The continued regulation of our industry is probably the most troublesome and difficult part of our business. There are so many regulations in the building codes, the land development and subdivision codes, other state permitting processes, as well as federal regulations. None of these take into account the reasonableness of the burdens placed upon the builder and developer, cost versus benefit and time delays. We continue to hear about a shortage of affordable housing and the reason for this is strictly due to the regulatory environment we live in today.

Omni: If your career never took you into real estate, what else would you likely be doing?

Mark Disanto: I would probably be on Wall Street running a hedge fund and giving Ray Dalio a run for his money.

Omni: What has been your favorite Triple Crown project, and why?

Mark Disanto: I think I have two. The first was done about 17 years ago in Silver Spring Township. Georgetown Crossing was our first large apartment community containing 400 townhome and flat stack apartments. It is a beautiful property off route 114 in Silver Spring Township and our premier community. We still own it and will probably never sell it.

More recently Blue Ridge Village tops the list. This is an exciting mixed use community in lower Paxton Township that combines retail, commercial, apartments, townhomes and single-family homes along with a 32 acre park. This is a true livable, walkable community. The approval process was collaborative and respectful of the community and the Township. It took a lot of effort on our part, but I can assure the residents that this will be a premiere community that will significantly enhance the township.

Omni: What project has been your biggest failure or disappointment?

Mark Disanto: We bought a property out of market about 20 years ago at an auction and did not have sufficient due diligence completed upon it. When we went to the township for the first time it was like walking into a hornets’ nest. We eventually decided to cut our losses and re-sold the ground at auction for a loss. Out of the hundreds of developments and projects that we have done, we’ve only lost money on two deals. We are pretty proud of this.

Omni: What motivates you?

Mark Disanto: I just like to be engaged and like to see the company and the employees succeed. We set our strategy for three-year time frames and have quarterly meetings with our strategy review team and make sure we are all rowing the ship in the same direction. When everybody has purpose and they are all heading to the same goal line and supporting one another along the way, it makes for a very fun journey. I don’t need to work as hard as I do, I just have too much enjoyment with it to slow down.

Omni: Do you have any pet peeves?

Mark Disanto: I don’t think so. I get very frustrated when my volleys are not crisp on the tennis court!

Omni: When you’re not in the office, where can you most likely be found?

Mark Disanto: When I am in Harrisburg, it is usually with the family which includes the five grandkids, or working around the house and in the garden in the summertime, or in a tree stand in the fall trying to find the elusive big buck, or on the tennis court 2 to 4 days a week. If out of Harrisburg it could be anywhere in the world!

Omni: And finally, what career advice would you give to your younger self?

Mark Disanto: I would say, do not doubt your abilities. If you have an idea you want to execute then write it down and write a plan on how to achieve it. Review the plan both upstream and downstream with your staff. If you don’t have a staff, take it to people you respect and really try to poke holes in it. Once it’s well vetted, then work diligently and hard at it. A lot of people say this person was “lucky.” That’s usually not the case; a lot of strategic thought and hard work creates what people call luck.

Omni Realty Group thanks Mark for such candid and thoughtful answers to these questions. There is a lot of inspiration that can be found “beyond the bio” and on a more personal level. You can learn more about Triple Crown Corporation and its services by visiting them at https://www.triplecrowncorp.com or on Facebook and Twitter @TripleCrownCorp.

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uBreakiFix Opens New Retail Space with the Help of Omni Realty

Posted on October 2, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

At Omni Realty Group, it’s our passion to work with Central Pennsylvania businesses to help them find the right commercial space where they can thrive. One of our recent clients, uBreakiFix, provides a perfect example of how working with a tenant representative, like Omni, will have a big impact on the searching, negotiating, and commercial leasing process. Here’s how James McNeil, owner of uBreakiFix in Mechanicsburg came to find a new home for his business with Omni’s assistance.

About the Business

First, let’s learn a little bit more about the business and its retail needs. uBreakiFix fixes electronic devices. From the all-too-common phone drop in the parking lot to the tablet in the toilet, they’ve fixed just about every drop, slip, trip, and fumble you can envision. Those suffering the “trauma” of a broken electronic device, can walk into uBreakiFix and seek repair right on the spot – often in under one hour.

When looking for the right retail location, James knew he needed a space with high visibility and drive-by traffic. Ideally, the store would have other stores or attractions nearby where customers could browse or relax while their device was being fixed. Finally, the location needed to hit the right demographic of uBreakiFix’s target market.

Search and Struggle…then Success!

James started on his search solo. He poured hours of his time into researching possible locations. And after spending even more time touring many different properties, he came up empty handed. Fortunately, James reached out to Omni Realty Group and Mike Kushner became his tenant representative to help him in his search. Within a couple of weeks, Mike found what would become the business’s future home.

Located at 4957 Carlisle Pike, Mechanicsburg, this retail space met all of the “must haves” on James’s list. The store is part of the newly built Hampden Shops Plaza on the Carlisle Pike, one of the area’s most heavily trafficked roads for retail shopping. Within the plaza, there are places to eat, shop, get your hair cut, and much more. Rite Aid and CVS are within walking distance as well. Best of all, since it was a new space, uBreakiFix could really make it their own, by influencing the interior layout and décor.

Life Takes Compromise

The number one benefit of this space, and ultimately why James knew it was the right spot for his business, was location. It put him exactly where he wanted to be – visibility, traffic, and target market. But with anything, there was a compromise. The price point for the space was at the top of James’s budget. With Mike’s help, they negotiated this to a fair and reasonable rate that was consistent with other pricing in the area. Ultimately this was a compromise James was willing to make, considering all the other benefits of the space that would put them in the best possible position to grow.

The Difference of Having a Tent Representative

In his own words, James describes his experience working with Omni Realty Group:

“Mike did the research on the area and provided all of the relevant data to make the best decision for us. He got me in front of decision makers for the properties we look at and helped negotiate the lease payment to get the deal done. From a personal experience, it would have taken me a lot longer to find a location, as I was looking for retail space for four months, with no success, prior to working with Mike.”

Valuable Lessons Learned

If James had to go through this process again, there are valuable lesson he would apply to his next search for retail space. Here are four things he feels every business should know:

Start the process with a tenant representative by your side. This alone will save you so much time, and in the end, money.
Do not jump on the first option presented to you. Continue to explore even just a few more options and then fully compare pros and cons.
Always negotiate.
Compromise is necessary, but make sure you do not compromise on something that is most important to you.

If your business is looking for new retail, office, or industrial space in Central Pennsylvania, please reach out today so Omni Realty Group can help you like we helped uBreakiFix.

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Tips for Promoting Your Commercial Real Estate Business on Social Media

Posted on July 22, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Businesses in every industry have turned to social media as a marketing tool to share information, grow their band and cultivate an audience. While in many cases, this has proven successful, there are plenty of businesses who miss the mark, and wind up disappointed when their social media strategy fails to deliver its intended results.

For commercial real estate professionals, social media can be a highly valuable tool, but only when used correctly – and consistently. Take a look as we discuss five important points for using social media to promote your commercial real estate business – or any business.

Brand yourself as a thought leader.

We all have to start somewhere. The same is true for building your online brand. Who are you going to be? Your content, and how you share it, will have a profound impact on the answer to this question. In business, I would think most of us want to be branded as a thought leader in our industry. In commercial real estate, you can achieve this by sharing expertise on technical topics, offer an analysis of data and trends, and partake in thought-provoking discussion. One of the most powerful platforms for this is Linkedin. Here, you can use your profile to reinforce your personal brand, you can share content through regular posting, and you can spark discussion in groups.

Make your content unique.

A staggering amount of content hits the internet each and every second. What’s going to make people stop and read yours? If you’re asking for someone to take time out of their day to read your words, it’s important to make them at least one, if not all four of these things: timely, importantly, relevant and interesting. For some added input, we asked John Webster, Owner of The John Webster Company and digital marketing expert.

“There is a lot of ‘noise’ on social media so your content needs to stand out,” explains John. “When sharing information about available properties do not simply inform about the property (everyone does that) take an additional minute to describe something special about the property, who would be a good fit for the property and why this specific property caught your eye.”

Be responsive and engaging.

If you want to create a true “audience” for your business’s content on social media, you need to remain present. This means you need to check in regularly on your posts to monitor comments, and respond. People appreciate and remember a personal response. This also increase the reach of your content. Sure, it make take 15 minutes out of your day to diligently login to your various social media accounts to monitor content, and engage with other people’s content, but make it a point to do this habitually, and it will pay off greatly as you cultivate an active audience.

Share the spotlight.

Once you build a valuable platform for sharing content, whether this is on your website, blog, Linkedin, Twitter, etc., you should consider sharing the spotlight every so often with other professionals who have an interesting perspective to share. Omni Realty often features guest Q&A blogs that expand our area of expertise while growing relationships with other respected professionals. When sharing the spotlight, this also opens up the door for others to do the same. My blogs are often published by TheBrokerList, and shared on their social media, which greatly amplifies their reach.

Build relationships with media.

Most people view the media as a tool, or approach outlets in a very self-serving manner. While, yes, at the end of the day promotion is an objective, you must also work to forge trust, respect, and even friendship with reporters and editors. Omni Realty has received a lot of earned media by approaching local media outlets in this manner. Through relationships with reporters, I’ve had 25+ articles featured in the Central Penn Business Journal, and none of it was paid placement.

Whether it’s a commercial real estate business, or any business that you’re trying to promote on social media, the most important thing to keep in mind is that your content creates your brand. What you share, how often, and how you engage with your audience, will leave a lasting impact and frame how people view both you and your business.

How have you found success when promoting your business on social media? Share a tip or personal story by leaving a comment below.

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Power Landlords Part II: Who Owns the Most Industrial Space in Central PA?

Posted on July 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Industrial, Local Market No Comments

You might think that Central Pennsylvania is defined by its natural resources or agriculture, or maybe you don’t think we’re known for much of anything. The truth is that there is a lot this region brings to the economy with our industrial market being one of the country’s top core industrial markets.

If this surprises you, consider the following. This particular region is well positioned along the nationally-recognized I-81 transportation corridor with immediate connections to I-78, I-76, I-83 and I-80, as well as immediate access to major deep-water ports at New York/New Jersey, Philadelphia and Baltimore. With our ability to provide manufacturers and distributors access to nearly 70% of the total consumer markets in North America within one day’s drive, the region has benefitted from significant demand, especially most recently with the emergence of the e-commerce which promises customers even faster ship times.

Additionally, nearly 8 million square feet of new Class A regional and super regional distribution facilities are under construction. Even with this much new space entering the market, vacancy rates remain right around 5% which is well below the historical market standard of 7%. Combine all of this with a backlog of millions of square feet of new tenant requirements in the market, and you can see why Central PA’s industrial real estate market is ripe for opportunity among investors and landlords.

So, who owns the most industrial space in the market? The combined square footage of the top 5 landlords in Central PA is 32,820,237 square-feet of space. Moreover, the combined vacant square-footage for all of this space is just 2,448,898 square-feet or 7%. So, who are these power landlords and what buildings account for most of this space? Let’s take a deeper dive.

Prologis Inc.

It should come at no surprise that Prologis Inc. tops this list with its portfolio of 22 industrial buildings. Combined, this accounts for 11,242,938 square-feet of real estate. The largest building, which is Key Logistics Park located at 950 Centerville Road in Newville, is home to 1,170,000 square-feet of industrial space.

Global Logistics Properties, Ltd. (GIC Real Estate)

Next on the list is Global Logistics Properties, Ltd. with 19 buildings and 7,075,922 square-feet of real estate. The largest of these buildings is Lemoyne Industrial Park located at 221. S. 10^th Street in Lemoyne which is 885,802 square-feet of industrial space.

Clarion Partners

With 10 buildings totaling 5,676,191 square-feet, Clarion Partners ranks number three on our list of “Power Landlords” in Central PA. Their largest building, located at 1 True Temper Drive in Carlisle, is 1,226,525 square-feet in size.

First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.

At number four we have First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc. Their portfolio of 15 buildings accounts for 4,804,210 square-feet of industrial real estate. The largest building, 1,100,000 square-feet in size, is located at 5197 Commerce Drive in York.

Liberty Property Trust

Coming in at number five on the list is Liberty Property Trust with 7 buildings totaling 4,020,976 square-feet of industrial space in the Central PA region. Their largest building, which is the Carlisle Distribution Center located at 40 Logistics Drive in Carlisle, is 972,000 square-feet.

It can be hard to wrap your head around these numbers and the amount of industrial space that is located right here in Central PA. Often, these are huge buildings we drive by daily but fail to notice unless we pay attention. The products that are made in and shipped from these facilities impact the global economy and provide us with every item imaginable, from basic essentials to toys and tools to match a wide variety of hobbies. So the next time you drive by the Key Logistics Park in Newville or the Carlisle Distribution Center, you now have a little more intel into who the power landlords are behind these massive facilities.

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Legal Pitfalls That Could Impact Your Commercial Real Estate Deal

Posted on July 1, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Legal matters can arise just about anywhere and in any industry. Commercial real estate is no exception. In fact, commercial real estate transactions can be filled with legal pitfalls if you don’t take proper precautions or seek professional advice.

What legal challenges are common to commercial real estate? For the answers, we looked to an experienced real estate attorney who has helped many clients navigate through such challenges.

Hannah Dowd McPhelin is a partner with Pepper Hamilton LLP, resident in the Harrisburg and Philadelphia offices and vice chair of the firm’s Real Estate Practice Group. Attorney McPhelin concentrates her practice in real estate matters and other business transactions, including the acquisition, sale and financing of commercial real estate properties and leasing of office, retail, warehouse and industrial space, representing both landlords and tenants. She is an Accredited Professional and was named a member of The Counselors of Real Estate in 2017.

Omni Realty Group had the pleasure of interviewing Attorney McPhelin to further examine the legal pitfalls that could impact commercial real estate deals. Here’s what we learned.

Omni: Describe some of the most common legal challenges you’ve seen arise when working through a commercial real estate deal.

Hannah Dowd McPhelin: I’ve worked through a lot of different challenges on a variety of deals, but an enduring theme is that some level of trust between the parties is necessary to get a deal done efficiently. If there is no trust or trust erodes, it is extremely difficult to work through challenges and get to closing, and it makes the deal much more expensive for all parties.

Omni: What conflicts can arise between the LOI and the lease? How can this be avoided?

HDM: The issue I see most often is that, because LOIs are typically not binding, a party may not raise concerns at that stage and will believe those terms can be “re-negotiated” in the lease — this leads to mistrust and deal delays. It is better to raise material issues at the LOI stage so both parties do not waste time and resources when there is not a meeting of the minds. I also recommend that the LOI be a short and concise document containing only the most important terms. A long LOI slows down deals and makes it more likely that you will do a second round of negotiations on particular issues when you negotiate the lease.

Omni: How can an attorney help parties avoid legal pitfalls in commercial real estate transactions?

HDM: A good deal attorney should be creative and look to solve problems as they come up. Every deal has certain issues, but an attorney who only spots issues without offering useful and practical solutions to them is not helpful to the process and reduces the chance that the deal will get done. Frank and open discussions among the parties and their attorneys are the most useful tool in avoiding pitfalls and making sure that the deal is documented in such a way that each party understands its obligations and risks.

Omni: What are the benefits of using a commercial real estate broker?

HDM: Similar to a good attorney, a good broker can be very useful in moving a deal forward, particularly over any rough patches. A broker’s knowledge of the market and other options in the market is essential to understanding a party’s leverage, and a good broker has strong relationships in the relevant market that benefit his or her client.

Omni: For tenants/buyers, how will using an exclusive tenant representative help avoid conflict of interest in a CRE deal?

HDM: Exclusive tenant representatives are particularly helpful to companies that are not in the real estate industry but have real estate needs. The representative’s knowledge of the market, the tenant’s options, and the deal process helps set the tenant’s expectations and assists the tenant in making efficient decisions.

Omni: When entering a commercial real estate transaction, what is the best time in the process to engage outside professionals like attorneys and/or commercial real estate brokers?

HDM: As early as possible. A broker should be engaged when a tenant first considers a move in order to best understand the options in the market and to help the tenant make a considered decision. Ideally, an attorney is engaged in the LOI stage. As an attorney, I find it helpful if I can do a quick review of the LOI before it is signed, as I may see issues that will eventually become big problems in the lease if not addressed at the LOI stage. Often, what I am doing is asking a few follow-up questions to make sure the parties have considered how certain terms will play out in the lease.

Navigating commercial real estate transactions can come with many challenges. What’s most important to remember is that any successful deal must be built upon a foundation of trust. Additionally, seeking the input of an experienced commercial real estate broker, particularly one that is an exclusive tenant representative, will ensure your interests are represented. Finally, having the counsel of a real estate attorney on your side to review any documents and spot issues that could grow into bigger problems down the road can be invaluable to the success of your transaction.

To learn more about Attorney Hannah Dowd McPhelin or Pepper Hamilton LLP, please visit: www.pepperlaw.com.

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Census Data: National and Local Trends You Need to Watch

Posted on June 3, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Census data provides a fascinating look into population growth trends that stand to have a profound impact on our economy, both locally and nationally. More than just being “interesting” data to study, population growth and decline points us to important trends that will reshape supply and demand in various industries, one of the most prominent being real estate.

Just last month, the US Census Bureau released new population estimates. These estimates account for and compare the resident population for counties between the dates of April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018. The outcome? There are shifts in population taking place across the nation that may differ from what you might assume. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights from this data from a national and local level.

At a National Level

South and West Lead Population Growth

The census data confirmed that counties with the largest numeric growth are located in the south and the west regions. In fact, Texas claimed four out of the top 10 spots. Looking at population growth by metropolitan area, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, had the largest numeric growth with a gain of 131,767 people, or 1.8 percent taking place in 2018. Second was Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona which had an increase of 96,268 people, or 2.0 percent. The cause of growth in these areas is the result of migration, both domestic and international, as well as natural increase. In Dallas, it was natural increase which served as the largest source of population growth, whereas in Phoenix I was migration.

Fastest Growth Occurred Outside of Metropolitan Areas

Surprisingly, no new metro areas moved into the top 10 largest areas. Of the 390 metro areas within the US (including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico), 102 of these areas, or 26.2 percent experienced population decline in 2018. The five fastest-decreasing metro areas (excluding PR) were Charleston, West Virginia (-1.6 percent); Pine Bluff, Arkansas. (-1.5 percent); Farmington, New Mexico (-1.5 percent); Danville, Illinois (-1.2 percent); and Watertown-Fort Drum, New York (-1.2 percent). The population decreases were primarily due to negative net domestic migration.

North Dakota Claims Fastest Growing County

Among counties with a population of 20,000 or more, Williams County, North Dakota claimed the top spot as the fastest-growing county by percentage. This county increased by 5.9 percent between 2017 and 2018 (from 33,395 to 35,350 people). The rapid growth Williams County experienced was due mainly to net domestic migration, 1,471 people, in 2018. The county also experienced growth between 2017 and 2018 by both natural increase of 427 people, and international migration of 52 people.

More Growth than Decline

Out of 3,142 counties, 1,739 (or 55.3 percent) gained population between 2017 and 2018. Twelve counties (0.4 percent) experienced no change in population, and the remaining 1,391 (or 44.3 percent) lost population. Between 2010 and 2018, a total of 1,481 (or 47.1 percent) counties gained population and 1,661 (or 52.9 percent) lost population. Though there has been more growth than decline overall, the numbers indicate that this can easily shift year over year.

At a Local Level

Dauphin County

Lancaster County

York County

Cumberland County

Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster and York Experience Consistent Growth

The most notable trend to take place between 2010 and 2018 in Central PA is that these counties all experienced consistent growth year-over-year. Moreover the growth occurred fairly evenly over the last 8 years. This provides consistency and enables the economy to respond to the growth over a reasonable amount of time.

Counties Also Maintain Same Order of Ranking in Population

Another trend worth noting is that the counties have maintained the same order of ranking based upon population for 8+ years. For example, in 2010 these counties in order of smallest population to largest population was Cumberland, Dauphin, York, Lancaster. This is the same ranking we see in 2018, and every year in between. No county surpassed another at any point.

Lancaster Remains Largest and Fastest Growing County

Lancaster County has a major lead in population over the others. At 984 square miles, it is also the largest of the 4 counties. Between 2010 and 2018 it also experienced the largest numeric growth at 24,112 people. Number two in numeric growth was actually the smallest of the four counties, Cumberland County, which grew by 16,017 people. York County grew by 13,301 people and Dauphin County grew by 8,997 people.

Overall, the latest US Census offers valuable and insightful information related to population growth between 2010 and 2018. Understanding the cause of either growth or decline provides framework for how these shifts may continue on their course, or change in the future.

A deeper dive into the census data reveals several demographic changes impacting commercial real estate development: household formations, aging baby boomers, growing millennials, women in the workforce, and migration toward the South.

Today’s demographic changes present challenges for commercial real estate developers, but they also offer lucrative opportunities to firms creatively adapting to new demands.

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Power Landlords: Who Owns the Most Office Space in Central PA?

Posted on May 30, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

These are buildings that you have likely passed countless times. Whether you live in Central Pennsylvania, or any other part of the world, real estate is all around us. Have you ever stopped to wonder who owns a particular piece of real estate? Maybe it’s the not the first question you’re asking on your morning commute, or when out running an errand, but the answer to this question may fascinate you.

Particularly the commercial real estate industry holds a lot of potential to impact economic development in a region. For entities who have made it a business to accrue large amounts of commercial real estate, they provide us with valuable insight into to the state of the economy, based upon their decision to buy or sell/lease space and at what price point. Knowing who the big players are can help keep us apprised of changes in the market that will ultimately trickle down to impact businesses far and wide.

So who are these businesses and how much property do they own? Among private, for-profit entities located in Central Pennsylvania, these are the top five “power landlords” who own the most office space in the region.

Linlo Properties

According to a CoStar Group analysis on April 5, Linlo Properties owns 745,349 square feet of space in Central Pennsylvania. Linlo’s assets include the AT&T Building, an 87,718 square-foot building at 2550 Interstate Drive; 4250 Crums Mill Road, a 75,000 square-foot building; Vista Plaza, a 71,800 square-foot building at 1215 Manor Drive; and Hillside Corporate Center, a 68,525 square-foot building located at 5001 Louise Drive.

Healthcare Trust, Inc.

Healthcare Trust, Inc., a non-traded traded real estate investment trust that focuses primarily on healthcare related assets, comes in second, per CoStar data, with all its 638,516 square feet purchased from UPMC Pinnacle (formerly Pinnacle Health) in 2014. The Landis Building, located at 2501 North Third Street (formerly part of Polyclinic Hospital) is its largest holding at 314,790 square feet.

High Associates

High Associates is the third-biggest property owner in the region with 561,276 square feet of commercial real estate. All their properties are in Lancaster County except 5000 Ritter Road, Mechanicsburg. 1853 William Penn Way, their largest holding, which is 82,331 square feet of space, is occupied by the High Companies.

Select Capital Commercial Properties

Fourth is Select Capital Commercial Properties with 544,599 square feet of commercial real estate. Select Capital’s holdings include 225 Grandview Avenue (the former HP/EDS building) with 214,150 square feet; 300 North Second Street (Commerce Towers) with 72,000 square feet; and 425 N. 21st Street (Plaza 21) with 62,304 square feet.

Hoffer Properties

Hoffer Properties ranks fifth with 531,741 square feet of space. Hoffer’s assets include 100 Sterling Parkway (the former PHICO building), a 220,000 square-foot building and 300 Sterling Parkway, the 129,000 square foot building built in 2016 for Deloitte.

These power landlords of Central PA hold a significant amount of commercial real estate assets. How they choose to use and further develop this space has the potential to shape the economy, locally and beyond, by attracting new businesses which brings new jobs. With the backing of these large entities who are continually investing in and improving commercial real estate, every business in the region benefits from the ripple of this economic impact.

It’s important to note that this list is limited to private, for-profit entities located in Central PA. Hbg. Realty Inc. (Harristown Development Corp.), PA Economic Development Agency, The Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, and Highmark, Inc. all rank higher than the top five on this list.

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Commercial Real Estate Appraisals in Central PA: Q&A with JSR Appraisal Group, Inc.

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

Appraising commercial real estate is a particularly unique process, and one that if not done carefully and correctly can have a profound impact on the value of a commercial property for many years to come. To dive deeper into the topic of commercial appraising, including the industry trends and challenges, Omni Realty Group enlisted the expertise of Judy Striewig and M. Shane Rorke, Certified General Appraisers and Co-Founders of JSR Appraisal Group, Inc.

JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. is a commercial appraisal firm located in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, which serves the South Central Pennsylvania market. Together, Judy and Shane opened the firm on January 1, 2015. With 25 years of appraisal experience, Shane has appraised most all types of commercial real estate. In recent years he has focused on land subdivision appraisal work and has tracked many Central Pennsylvania markets for in-depth absorption analysis. Judy’s 15 years of appraisal experience began in 2004 when she entered the industry as an apprentice in the residential appraisal arena. In 2008 she made the move to appraise commercial real estate.

With Judy and Shane’s wealth of knowledge, Omni asked them to weigh in on the most essential questions surrounding the commercial appraisal industry. Here are their answers.

Omni: What do you view as the strengths of your commercial appraisal firm?

JSR: We track most all commercial sales in several markets in South Central Pennsylvania. This data is entered and tracked in our commercial sale database that provides both a detailed and summary picture of sale transactions. This enables us to analyze market transactions and keep an eye on what is happening in the market.

Second, while we are not a large firm, we have four staff members that work together sharing data and ideas on property types, trends, and other real estate issues. We regularly talk to brokers, developers and business owners to gain a pulse on market nuances and business trends.

Omni: How will automated valuation models impact the commercial appraisal process?

JSR: The commercial appraisal process has not been as impacted by automated valuation models as the residential appraisal process for several reasons. First, the quantity of data is much smaller than residential sales. Second, commercial properties are often bought based on the income they produce. This information is typically not available through public sources and is often confidential. And third, a valuation model may be appropriate for certain types of commercial properties like office buildings or warehouse facilities, assuming rental rates are ‘at market’. However the commercial real estate market has such a varied type of product with many specialized buildings, there may not be sufficient amount of data for a valuation model to be effective.

While my thoughts on using a packaged valuation model for commercial (and even residential) real estate are leery, I do believe analysis of large data sets would be helpful to the profession. The use of regression testing to provide rules of thumb to assist in making adjustments and decisions on comparing properties would be helpful. For example, we often consider making an adjustment for properties of different sizes (based on the economies of scale principle). I see a true benefit in models that use regression analysis to provide guidelines for different pricing based on size of a property and other similar property characteristics.

Omni: What are some of the recent regulatory changes on valuation rules and do you foresee this impacting your profession?

JSR: There have been two recent regulatory changes on valuation rules, but we don’t see either of these as having a significant impact. In June of 2018, Pennsylvania passed into legislation a law that allows State Real Estate Brokers, Associate Brokers and salespeople to provide Broker Price Opinions (BPO). Brokers are limited to performing BPO’s for financial institutions in conjunction with properties owned by the institutions that meet certain criteria. They remain prohibited from providing valuation services for mortgage financing, eminent domain, tax appeals and valuation scenarios. Additionally, the FDIC is contemplating raising the appraisal threshold from $250,000 to $500,000 for commercial real estate transactions, and $250,000 to $400,000 for residential real estate transactions.

Omni: What are some of the biggest challenges you face as a commercial appraiser?

JSR: Appraisals are often viewed as a necessary step or hurdle to obtain financing. (Yes, we know this.) And because of this the borrower often picks the ‘cheapest’ bid provided. The borrower has no idea how much experience the appraiser has with the specific property type or what due diligence will be performed in developing an opinion of value.

A second challenge is that the only part of the appraisal report that gets any attention from the borrower is typically the final value. The support and analysis that went into developing the value opinion are often not considered or read by the borrower. And, if a buyer really takes the time to review the report, there is a lot of pertinent information about the property within the report, other than the value opinion. In today’s busy times, I am not sure this will change anytime soon. However I would like to see the borrower use the document as a source of information about the property as well as an objective viewpoint in value.

Omni: What most often causes a disconnect between an appraiser’s and an owner’s opinion of value?

JSR: Often, a buyer’s business is interwoven with a commercial building. Take a well performing restaurant with good management and a well-known reputation. Most commonly when we appraise the property we are appraising the real estate only and not the business value. Our value opinion must isolate the real estate, and exclude any value attributed to the business which includes the reputation and operation. This sometimes results in a real estate value opinion lower than the opinion of the owner of the thriving business. We must look at a property as if that management and reputation were taken away, what would the real estate sell for on the open market.

There have been times when we are asked why we need leases or historical income and expenses to appraise a building. “Isn’t the value, the value?” we are asked. As mentioned earlier, commercial real estate is often valued by the income it produces and long-term leases have significant impact on value. Would you pay the same price for a building that produces leased income of $100,000 annually for the next 20 years or an identical building that produces leased income of $50,000 annually for the next 20 years?. While this may sound obvious, it often is not taken into consideration when a value differs from what an owner has in mind.

Omni: Is there anything else you wish to add that could offer insight into Central PA’s commercial real estate market right now?

JSR: While we do not have any earth shattering observations, we can share some of the trends we see, of which some are obvious.

Retail that can be purchased on-line is struggling, while retail that requires ‘hands on’ shopping is prospering.
The retail restaurant business has grown at a rapid pace in the last few years. Younger generations eat out much more frequently than previous generations, and this sector of retail is strong.
Because of our central location and access to highway systems, the South Central Pennsylvania Industrial Market is our strongest real estate market.
The apartment market in the City of Harrisburg continues to grow with new apartments being quickly absorbed as they come on-line. Rental rates for nicely renovated apartments are $700 to $800 for studios, $800 to $1,000 for 1-bedroom units and $950 to $1,250 for 2-bedroom units. Based on the rental rates and occupancy rates, these properties are yielding high values. However there has been no recent sales of these newly renovated apartments to truly gauge how investors look at renovated apartments in the City as pure investments.
There has been significant price appreciation in the professional office market for good quality, stabilized assets. Cap rates are below 8.00% with some recent transactions in the low 7.00% range that have long-term, credit rated tenants in place. Cap rates for single-tenant medical office buildings are sub 7.00%.

When working with a commercial real estate appraiser, there are several important things to keep in mind. Look for one who is experienced and reputable in your local market and who can demonstrate on-going, extensive research of market sales and lease activity. You also want to work with someone who encourages open dialogue and discussion to ensure the scope of work and appraisal assignment meets your expectations and needs. Omni Realty Group thanks Judy and Shane of JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. for sharing their insight and expertise in this blog. You can learn more about JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. at www.jsrappraisal.com.

Judy Striewig

M. Shane Rorke

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What’s the difference between a listing agent and tenant rep agent?

Posted on April 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

The use of the term real estate agent casts a broad umbrella under which people tend to lump all real estate professionals into the same category. The truth is that there is a big difference between the role of a listing agent and a tenant/buyer agent. While both might be referred to as simply a “real estate agent,” it’s important to understand when and how you would use each when it comes to buying or selling real estate.

Listing Agent – A listing agent might also be referred to as a seller’s agent. This is the person who represents the seller or landlord in a deal. His or her job is to list and market the property to attract potential buyers, then negotiate an acceptable deal on behalf of the seller.

Tenant/Buyer Agent – On the other side of the deal you have the tenant/buyer agent. This is the person who represents the tenant or buyer looking to lease or purchase property. His or her job is to find and bring a tenant/buyer to properties which meet their criteria, then represent them in a deal to ensure terms and pricing is fair to the buyer.

How is a listing agent compensated?

Most commonly, a listing agent signs an exclusive right-to-sell/lease listing with the seller/landlord, meaning only the listing agent’s brokerage is entitled to an agreed upon commission upon the sale or lease of the property. The brokerage then typically shares the commission with the agent. Exclusive listings are bilateral agreements between a broker and a seller/landlord. It’s important to know that a listing actually belong to the broker or brokerage, not the listing agent unless he is also owner of the brokerage. However, it is important to make the distinction between a tenant/buyer agent and a subagent of the seller/landlord. If the tenant/buyer does not have a formal written agreement with the tenant/buyer agent then the agent who is showing the property and providing information to the tenant/buyer is considered a subagent of the listing agent and is not representing the interests of the tenant/buyer.

How is a tenant/buyer agent compensated?

Generally, the listing agent cooperates with the tenant/buyer agent and shares a portion of the earned commission in exchange for bringing a tenant/buyer to the table, if that tenant/buyer then submits an offer that the seller accepts. This is referred to as a “co-op” commission. It’s important to note that a tenant/buyer agent is at no cost to the tenant/buyer.

Do I really need to work with an agent?

Legally, no. You are not required to work with an agent and can opt to list your property as a For Sale By Owner (FSBO). But there are benefits to working with a listing agent. Foremost, it becomes their responsibility to market and sell your property in a timely fashion and for an agreeable price. They will schedule showings and handle all of this for you. Many sellers benefit from working with a listing agent because their property may sell faster and at a higher price point than if they decided to go it alone. Also, many people value having a professional to take these time-consuming tasks off their hands.

If you are on the other side of the deal as a tenant/buyer, again you do not legally need to work with a tenant/buyer agent in order to buy or lease a property. However, similarly to the points regarding working with a listing agent, a buyer may also experience benefits when working with a tenant/buyer agent. Foremost, you will have their knowledge and expertise to guide you through the buying/leasing process, and someone who will represent your best interests. A tenant/buyer agent can also make your property search less time consuming by showing you only properties that they know fit your criteria. Think of them as your tenant/buyer “concierge.”

Can the listing agent also be the selling agent?

Simply stated, no. A listing agent should not be the selling agent within the same deal. Why? Because there is a major conflict of interest in doing so. Think of it like having the same lawyer represent both the defense and the prosecution in a case. Neither side will receive fully unbiased, honest representation, and the counsel walks away with twice the compensation. In fact, states such as California have gone as far as making such “dual agency” practices illegal.

Too often, a tenant/buyer begins looking at property without hiring a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent) to exclusively represent them. Usually they do not realize that a selling agent is not at the cost of the tenant/buyer, since the tenant/buyer agent will normally co-broke a commission with the listing agent. A tenant/buyer agent is compensated by splitting the commission with the listing agent. So, the client gets representation at no cost. The commission arrangement between the owner and listing agent will be paid whether or not the tenant/buyer has representation.

Without representation, tenants or buyers often find themselves needing the expertise, advocacy and unbiased advice of a listing agent. This can result in a number of troubling issues and frustrations for the tenant/buyer. These include losing the upper hand in negotiations, being subject to unfair pricing and unsatisfactory terms and too late realizing that things could have gone far better if they had a professional dedicated solely to representing their best interests.

When it comes to understanding the differences between a listing agent and a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent), the most important take away is that whatever side of the deal you’re on, you want to be sure you have your own representation to advocate for your best interests and negotiate a favorable deal.

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