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Real Estate Trends to Impact the United States in 2018

Posted on December 27, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Rapid technological advancements and significant demographic shifts significantly influence the real estate industry. These various factors like growing urbanization, longevity of Baby Boomers and differentiated lifestyle patterns of Millennials are changing the way people value real estate. Add into the mix macroeconomic and regulatory developments, and you have the perfect storm for some significant changes to come to the real estate market in 2018.

With the many changes that have already taken place in 2017, many real estate companies find themselves searching for ways in which they can gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in the New Year.

To achieve this, we must identify and monitor emerging trends that are likely to impact the economy moving into 2018. Take a look at the top trends that are shaping the U.S. real estate industry right now!

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Increasing interest rates could temper growth

Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in the short-to-medium term. Volatile global markets have led to continued low interest rates, but that’s expected to come to an end in 2018. Higher interest rates are likely to increase mortgage costs and could deter real estate investments to some extent.
Gross domestic product growth will likely increase 2.5 percent in 2018. It’s the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1% growth in 2016. The modest economic improvement could temper the pace of commercial real estate (CRE) transaction activity.
Improving labor markets and household wealth will boost consumer confidence. The U-5 unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached is expected to drop under 5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio is projected to peak in 2018, as retiring Baby Boomers may reduce the share of employed.

REGULATORY OUTLOOK: Greater compliance means greater cost

Increased compliance and administration costs will result from the new accounting standards on lease accounting and revenue recognition that will primarily impact real estate investment trusts (REITs) and engineering and construction (E&C) companies.
Risk retention rules will lower issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). We are also likely to see a reduction in capital availability in secondary and tertiary markets.
The Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act of 2015 will ease REIT tax provisions and R&D tax credits for E&C companies, while increasing the flexibility to invest in startups for R&D experimentation. However, corporate tax reforms will reduce flexibility for corporations to spin off real estate assets into REIT structures.

DISRUPTIVE TRENDS: These factors are reshaping the face of CRE

Collaboration and Sharing.These sound like two positive trends, right? They certainly are for startups who utilize new platforms and business models like Airbnb or WeWork to reduce their real estate overhead. However, this type of collaboration and sharing of space is disrupting the way organizations lease and use commercial real estate space for their businesses. Traditional CRE companies will need to rethink their approach toward space design, lease administration, and lease duration in order to compete.
CRE data is becoming more ubiquitous and transparent thanks to technological advancements. The traditional brokerage model is being threatened by the increasing ease and efficiency of online leasing. Traditional brokers will need to diversify their services to include consulting and collaboration.
A growing demand for mixed-use developments as consumers prefer to “live, work and play” in proximity. This demand is the result of a shortage of workers with strong STEM skills, rising urbanization and Millennials’ preference for an open and flexible work culture. Companies trying to compete for this type of talent should choose office locations in areas that cater to the living and working environments preferred by their ideal candidates.
Rising demand for fast and convenient online retailing is disrupting the retail and industrial markets. Innovations in speed and mode of delivery (such as same-day delivery and e-lockers) will decrease the demand for large retail and industrial spaces. This trend will also cause a blurring of the lines between these two properties. For example, some retail space could double as fulfillment centers. To stay afloat, retailers will need to try different store formats to appeal to the consumer, while industrial properties should focus on smaller, more flexible spaces located near cities.
A change in how we get around will also change how we use real estate. With each passing year, more and more people rely upon “pay-per-use” vehicles and rideshare platforms like Zipcar, Uber and Lyft. We also get closer to self-driving vehicles. This major disruption to the entire mobility ecosystem will result in fewer people owning and driving their own vehicles, especially in urban areas. This will free up large parking spaces in prime locations that can be put to different uses. Real estate companies should begin to explore ways to reduce and repurpose parking space as a means to generate more income.

Over the course of the next 12 months, the U.S. commercial and residential real estate industry can expect to be hit with various changes and challenges. Some of these changes may have a favorable impact, while others could impose some serious setbacks. For real estate businesses to gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in 2018, they should take note of these emerging trends and work on developing a strategy now to react to the changing market, when the time comes.

What real estate trend do you think will have the most significant impact on the United States in 2018? Share your insights by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, buyers agent, central pennsylvania, commercial, demand, Economy, growth, industry, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, prediction, regulation, residential, tenant representative, trends, united states

How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate.

Tenant-only broker representation is quickly growing in popularity and moving into the mainstream of real estate. Now more than ever, people looking for space realize they need a broker to solely represent their interests. It doesn’t take much more proof than to examine the success of the two premier exclusive tenant rep firms that are now part of multi-billion dollar companies. The Staubach Company, founded by Roger Staubach who pioneered the specialty of tenant representation,was acquired by Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and did $6 billion in revenue in 2015.

Studley, another firm offering exclusive tenant representation, was acquired by Savills, a global real estate powerhouse that did £1,283.5 million in revenue in 2015. If this trend continues, and I expect it will, other brokerage firms will need to adjust their practices to provide what clients want – fair and exclusive representation. Here is how I predict tenant representation to shape the future of real estate.

Technology will change the role of a tenant representative, but not replace it.

With technology making it easier than ever for potential tenants and buyers to find available properties, the future role of a tenant representative will be less about helping someone find space. Rather, tenant representatives will be sought out to provide advice, negotiate and exclusively represent the interests of the tenant/buyer.

Successful tenant representatives will use technology to streamline and automate the ways in which they research properties. This will allow them more time to reinvest in providing clients with their expertise and non-conflicting representation.

Large brokerage firms will need to “pick a side.”

In November 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that a listing broker had a fiduciary responsibility to both the buyer and the seller in a “dual agency” transaction. This case dealt with the 2007 sale of a Los Angeles home that was marketed as 15,000 square feet, but in reality was 11,000 square feet. The buyer reasonably felt like the brokerage company had pulled a fast one on him, especially since the house was both listed and sold by Coldwell Banker.

This court decision has potentially far-reaching impact on how commercial and residential real estate brokerages do business. While some may be able to continue doing business as usual and make their disclosures a little more apparent, the large brokerage firms may find it more difficult to do that and still be able to adequately represent both sides of a transaction. Essentially, large brokerage firms will need to pick a side. Will they represent the buyers or the sellers?

I predict we will see more real estate brokers choose to exclusively represent one side or the other so that they don’t risk the appearance of (or real) conflict of interest that just might result in a costly court battle.

Clients will get smart about seeking out exclusive representation.

Potential buyers and tenants are getting smarter about bringing their own representation to the table. Because of recent news stories and court cases, like the one mentioned above, light is finally being shed on the questionable practices of brokerage firms that represent both sides of a real estate deal. In nearly any other industry, this conflict of interest would never fly. Finally, real estate is catching up and buyers and tenants are seeking out exclusive representation to ensure a fair deal.

For many reasons, the growth in tenant-only broker representation is a good thing. It means tenants and buyers are getting equal representation in real estate transactions. It means companies are recognizing the conflict of interest in representing both sides and making changes to offer better transparency and disclosure clients. Finally, the growth in tenant-only broker representation means real estate professionals can and should specialize. People don’t want a Jack of All Trades, they want an expert who exclusively represents one side of a deal.

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

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Giving Thanks: 10 Good Things that Happened in Central PA’s Real Estate Market in 2016

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

With Thanksgiving just days away, we thought it fitting to apply our gratitude toward recognizing some positive events that have taken place in Central Pennsylvania’s real estate market in 2016. These trends and milestones indicate a growing economy, healthy businesses and more jobs on the horizon. Take a look at the top 10 good things that have taken place in the local market so far this year!

1. The Central Pennsylvania office market achieved the lowest vac a ncy rate in over eight years, proving that the demand for office space is on the rise as existing businesses grow and new businesses move into the area.

2. U.S. House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has authorized full funding f or construction and design of the federal courthous e project in Midtown Harrisburg. This will put potentially $168.4 million back into the economy with work related to this project. Plus, the new courthouse complex will be a nice upgrade for the city.

3. Members of the local community stepped forward and made an effort to fight back against unfair or outdated property assessments that were resulting in high property taxes. This an important step toward achieving fair and updated laws.

4. Single family rental properties remained a strong investment in Central Pennsylvania. U.S. homeownership rates are on the decline, meaning single families are also renting their homes and need more options than just one and two bedroom apartments.

5. Central Pennsylvania’s warehouse industry is growing by as much as 3.2 million square-feet. Four proposed warehouses will bring more jobs to the area, adding to the 71,282 warehouse jobs that have already increased by 25% in just five years.

6. Median household incomes are on the rise throughout Central Pennsylvania with the majority of counties posting gains all across the board. This increase in income will help to offset inflation and cost-of-living increases, potentially helping families to gain a bit more disposable income as well.

7. A growing demand for retail real estate indicates stores are growing and new businesses are entering the market. Additionally, the healthy retail industry continues to lease space despite the highest quoted rental rate since prior to Q3 2012.

8. Harrisburg office buildings received a major upgrade that will save tenants about $1.5 million per year in energy costs. The energy efficient upgrades earned a $1.2 million rebate from the utility company that will be reinvested into future projects in the city.

9. Hundreds of thousands of square-feet of new office space was delivered to the Central Pennsylvania market this year, attracting new business and more jobs.

10. Brokers that exclusively represent tenants continued to make the search for commercial real estate a fair and positive experience. By working with a tenant representative, businesses were more likely to find the ideal space and negotiate more favorable lease terms.

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, what other things took place in the real estate market or economy that have you feeling grateful? Share your thoughts by commenting below!

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Median Household Incomes Mostly on the Rise for Central Pennsylvania

Posted on September 26, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

According to the data from the U.S. Census American Community Survey, released on September 15, Central Pennsylvania is following in suit with greater Philadelphia – and the rest of the nation – which is experiencing an increase in median household incomes. Taking into consideration Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon and York Counties, here are some of the most notable trends published in the report.

The highest median household income is Cumberland County at $63,890; in contrast, the lowest median household income is Lebanon County at $52,571. Lancaster County increased the most in the last year, by $1,859. Decreasing the most was Lebanon County, by $1,497.

Lancaster County has the lowest median income for Black or African American households at $32,445. While the lowest median income for Hispanic or Latino households is Lebanon County at $25,422. The greatest difference in median income between male versus female householder (with no spouse present) is $18,429 in Cumberland County.

For all counties, the highest median income was for householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old and for households of married couple families. Also, female householders (with no spouse present) always earned less than male householders (with no spouse present).

If you’re curious what other trends emerged and what these trends tell us about the health of our local economy, let’s take a closer look at each county’s specific numbers.

Cumberland County, Pennsylvania

The 2016 median household income in Cumberland County is $63,890. This number is up from $62,759 in 2014 and is the highest median income we have seen this decade. For householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old, the median income rises to $78,960. Households of married couple families have the highest median income at $87,714. A male householder with no wife present has a median income of $54,837. In contrast, a female householder with no husband present has a median income of just $36,408. Black or African American households had a median income of $32,661 and Hispanic or Latino households had a median income of $35,097.

Dauphin County, Pennsylvania

The 2016 median household income in Dauphin County is $54,232. Up from $52,975 in 2014, this number has been on an almost steady rise for the last decade. For householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old, the median income rises to $63,373. Households of married couple families have the highest median income at $79,328. A male householder with no wife present has a median income of $46,430. In contrast, a female householder with no husband present has a median income of just $35,520. Black or African American households had a median income of $37,823 and Hispanic or Latino households had a median income of $33,947.

Lancaster County Pennsylvania

The 2016 median household income in Lancaster County is $59,262. This county experienced the greatest increase in the Central PA region over the last year. Rising from $57,403 by $1,859, this is also the highest number we have seen this decade, which is especially notable since median income took a dip in 2010, falling to $51,740.

For householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old, the median income rises to $73,155. Households of married couple families have the highest median income at $78,218. A male householder with no wife present has a median income of $47,391. In contrast, a female householder with no husband present has a median income of just $36,925. Black or African American households had a median income of $32,445 and Hispanic or Latino households had a median income of $38,125.

Lebanon County Pennsylvania

The 2016 median household income in Lebanon County is $52,571. Down from 2014’s median income of $54,068, Lebanon County experienced several ups and downs throughout the past decade. For householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old, the median income rises to $60,578. Households of married couple families have the highest median income at $73,219. A male householder with no wife present has a median income of $44,239. In contrast, a female householder with no husband present has a median income of just $34,383. Black or African American households had a median income of $34,662 and Hispanic or Latino households had a median income of $25,422.

York County, Pennsylvania

The 2016 median household income in York County is $58,409. This was another Central PA county that decreased since 2014, though ever so slightly by just $178 ($58,587 in 2014). With several ups and downs in median income, the number has still mostly been on the rise over the past decade.

For householders between the ages of 45 to 64 years old, the median income rises to $72,004. Households of married couple families have the highest median income at $81,711. A male householder with no wife present has a median income of $46,681. In contrast, a female householder with no husband present has a median income of just $33,911. Black or African American households had a median income of $44,525 and Hispanic or Latino households had a median income of $33,182

Our Analysis

Increasing median household income is just one trend that affects commercial real estate. The local employment gains continue to be strong, with seasonally adjusted unemployment rate holding below 5.0 percent. This adds to the demand for housing in a variety of forms: for office space, for the retail sector and for industrial/distribution facilities.

Underlying inflation is extremely tame, providing no impetus for significantly higher rates. Lending rates and fixed income rates of return will remain low by historical standards. For most metro areas (including Central Pennsylvania) and property types, lower oil prices have been a net positive. Spending less on gasoline encourages consumers to spend more on other items, which helps retail and hotel market fundamentals.

Lower prices directly translate into an increase in household disposable income. Overall, the commercial property market in 2017 will continue to be characterized by strong fundamentals, increased investor flows and high transaction volume.

What median income was most surprising to you? What do you think some these trends say about the health of our local economy? Share your thoughts by commenting below!

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Central Pennsylvania’s Retail Real Estate Market Experiences Record-Setting Quarter

Posted on September 15, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

This quarter has posted some of the highest and lowest numbers we have seen since 2012. In Central Pennsylvania’s local retail real estate market, vacancy rate is low, rental rate is high and both net absorption and total RBA have increased. But overall, what does this tell us about the state of our economy and what we can expect in future quarters?

Let’s take a closer look at some of the record-setting numbers we experienced in Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market in 2016’s second quarter and what they mean to the health of the economy.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

Coming in at number three on the list of select year-to-date deliveries is the retail property located at I-81 and Walker Road in Chambersburg. Phase I and II, delivered in Q1 2016, total 109,237 square-feet of space that is 92% leased (44,000 square-feet with 4,400 square-feet vacant). Some of the major tenants include Kohl’s, Target, Giant, Red Robin, Staples, PetSmart, Michael’s, Olive Garden, VisionWorks, ATT&T and many more. Palisades Development, LLC are currently processing LOIs for the remaining space. Phase III is planned and construction will proceed when leasing warrants.

At number 15 on CoStar’s list, is another Palisades Development, LCC retail property located at 968 Norland Avenue in Chambersburg. This 10,800 square-foot building is 100% occupied and was also delivered in Q1 2016.

Select Top Retail Leases:

On the list of Select Top Retail Leases, Harrisburg area east claimed the top spot. Listed at number one is the Harrisburg East Shopping Center with 69,954 square-feet of space. Although not listed by CoStar’s as a “Select Top Retail Lease” for this quarter, plans are in place for the Giant currently in Colonial Commons, to make a move 0.2 miles down Jonestown Road to the Harrisburg East Shopping Center into the retail space formerly occupied by Gander Mountain. This will provide more space for Giant and is already attracting additional retail businesses nearby including a CVS Pharmacy and potentially a fast-casual restaurant, reports KIMCO, owner of the shopping center.

Select Top Sales:

Only one of the nine Select Top Sales from April 2015-June 2016 is from the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Shoppes at Susquehanna Marketplace sold for $44,000,000 to Clarion Partners. With an RBA of 110,365 square-feet, this came at a cost of $398.68 per square foot.

Additionally, the West Porte Center, listed by CoStar as a Select Top Retail Lease, is more accurately represented as a sale. PennDOT purchased 67,126 square-feet of land for a new Amtrak station in Middletown that is expected to be finished in 2018. This is estimated to be a $32 million project which will include features like a covered pedestrian bridge to provide direct access to Penn State Harrisburg’s campus.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption increased this quarter from 64,467 square-feet (in Q1) to 110,449 square-feet, currently. Total RBA also increased, though just slightly, from 88,822,714 square-feet (in Q1) to 88,854,312 square-feet, currently. Six buildings were delivered with a total RBA of 31,598 square-feet. Additionally, five buildings are under construction.

Vacancy:

This quarter, the vacancy rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.7%. This once again matches the vacancy rate of Q4 2015, which is the lowest rate the Central PA submarket has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Rental Rate:

The quoted rental rate increased this quarter by $0.11 to $12.00. This is the highest price per square-foot the local retail real estate market has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Q2 2016 provided to be an exciting and record-setting quarter for Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market. We experienced a recent record low for vacancy rate at 4.7% and a recent record high for quoted rental rate at $12.00 per square-foot. These two trends go hand in hand, so it’s no surprise they would correlate together.

Another positive indicator for the health of the retail real estate market is the increase in net absorption and total RBA. Though neither were record-setting per se, net absorption nearly doubled in a single quarter which is impressive in its own right. It’s safe to say that the market is growing in demand, increasing in price and is able to absorb the new buildings that have been delivered.

What trend do you think will have the greatest impact on the Central Pennsylvania retail market? Share your insight by commenting below!

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Hundreds of Thousands of Square-Feet of New Office Space Coming to Central PA in 2016

Posted on August 1, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Two new construction projects, located at the intersection of Carlisle Pike and Hogestown Road in Mechanicsburg, will deliver 258,000 square-feet of office space to Central Pennsylvania this year. Silver Spring Township is calling this construction “Class A Office Space Project” and are confident that, by attracting new businesses to the area, this space will benefit the entire community and its existing businesses.

Here’s a look at how the market has responded to this new space, as well as our analysis of the long-term trends that are yet to come.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries/Top Under-Construction Properties:

In Q2 2016, Central Pennsylvania had just one building delivered, but it was substantial. Ranked number one on the Greater Philadelphia list of Year-to-Date Deliveries is the office space located at 974 Hogestown Road, Building 200, Mechanicsburg. It is Class A office space that is 100% occupied. Another 129,000 square-feet building, also located on Hogestown Road is under construction and projected to be completed in Q3 2016.

Absorption and Demand:

In Q2 2016, the net absorption has almost doubled since Q1 2016 and is nearly six times larger than it was in Q4 2015. In Q4 2015 it was 50,949 square-feet, increasing to 162,531 square-feet and further increasing this quarter to 301,337 square-feet. This is the largest net absorption we have seen in over a year, compounded by the fact that Central Pennsylvania’s last four years of net absorption has been varied and volatile. One new building delivered this quarter contributed 129,000 square-feet of pre-leased space to the market. There are 2 more buildings currently under construction and they are expected to deliver 136,590 square-feet of space to the market later this year.

Vacancy:

The vacant square footage decreased from 3,705,257 square-feet (Q1) to 3,532,920 (Q2). The vacancy rate also decreased to 6.5% (down 0.3% from last quarter). This is the lowest vacancy rate we have seen since prior to Q3 2012 and is only the second time it’s dipped into the 6.0% range, with last quarter being the first time. Though the vacancy rates have bounced slightly between increasing and decreasing each quarter since 2012, the overall trend has been a decrease.

Rental Rate:

This quarter, the quoted rental rate decreased from $17.32 (Q1) to $17.25. This is the first decrease that we have seen since Q3 2013. However, the fact that the price per square foot still remains above $17.00 makes it a higher price point than the market has experienced between the years of 2012-2015.

Employment:

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in June. The local labor force declined by 4,000 from May’s record high level of 6.54 million. The Pennsylvania Department of Labor reported that nine of the 11 sectors actually posted job increases in June; however, the two sectors that posted a loss, mining and logging and trade, transportation and utilities, were enough to cause the unemployment rate to rise. They each posted job losses of 600.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Silver Spring Township’s “Class A Office Space Project” is drawing new business into Central Pennsylvania. With 129,000 square-feet of 100% occupied space delivered to the market this quarter and another building of the same size to be delivered next quarter, there is a proven demand for this space. Furthermore, this spur of activity has the potential to draw even more businesses into the area who want to be part of the growing business community. This would come at an opportune time as the local market is experiencing a rise in unemployment.

What trend this quarter do you think will have the greatest impact on the Office Real Estate market moving forward? Share your insight by commenting below!

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6 Lessons Learned from a Tenant Rep

Posted on July 18, 2016 by Mike Kushner in About Us, Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

As the owner of Omni Realty Group, Mike Kushner has been exclusively practicing Tenant Rep/Buyer Agency since 1998, when he first established the company. Now, with almost 20 years of experience under his belt, Mike shares his top six most valuable lessons learned from his career as a tenant representative/buyer agent.

Everyone Deserves to be Treated with Respect

This lesson is so simple, yet so often overlooked. Any successful business owner, regardless of industry or size, should treat everyone they encounter with respect. The bottom line is that you never know how they may impact your business in the future. Employees, vendors, customers and anyone else can all serve as walking testimonials for your business – and you. Give them every reason to talk about how great you are to work with. Don’t risk having someone out there badmouthing their experience with you because of something that could have been prevented by treating them with a little more respect.

Never Take Your Reputation for Granted

Businesses balance on their reputation of service and the ethics and integrity of how they provide that service. I have always operated my business with an important rule in mind: We are the reputation we create. There’s really no way around it; you are the only one who can make or break your own reputation. Make every effort to protect it!

Do What You Say You Are Going to Do

Few things can destroy the integrity of the relationship that exists between service provider and customer as quickly as non-performance. Fail to deliver, and the customer will lose trust and become justifiably skeptical of future commitments. Furthermore, they will quickly move on to someone who will deliver

We Are Always Learning

Every day brings new experiences that broaden my understanding of this wonderful industry that is my livelihood. Keep your eyes and mind open to opportunities to learn. These can come in unconventional ways and at unexpected moments – don’t overlook them!

It’s Often Difficult for Tenants and Buyers to Spot “Double Dipping”

This lesson is very frustrating for an exclusive tenant representative and that is that tenants and buyers don’t easily see that a broker is taking advantage of them with a “double end” deal (i.e. collecting commission checks on both sides of their transactions). Also known as “double dipping” in commercial real estate circles, this practice is far more common that it should be.

Not only is it greedy and unfair, it’s insulting to the tenant or buyer to think that they aren’t smart enough to eventually realize what’s going on. The bottom line is that listing or selling brokers are salesmen. They get paid more if you lease in their listed building and are therefore incentivized to get you to do so. If you work with anyone who is not an exclusive tenant rep, you are not likely to see all the options truly available to you.

Business Should Review Their Lease Far More Often Than They Do

Most businesses only look at their leases every five years (or right before renewal). The truth of the matter is that real estate occupancy cost is a major expense for any business and should be reviewed on a regular basis, at least annually. Furthermore, the terms of your lease should provide for a lease audit to allow you to ensure that expenses being passed through to you, the tenant, are fair and accurate.

In short, working with a commercial real estate broker should be a pleasant and stress-free experience. If it’s not, you’re likely working with the wrong broker who isn’t putting your interests first. If nearly 20 years of experience has taught me anything, it’s that the people – not the property – are the priority.

Which of these lessons do you feel is the most important for running a successful and respected business? Share your opinion by commenting below!

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Central PA Industrial Market Booms with New Construction

Posted on May 14, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

Central Pennsylvania is in the midst of a new construction boom when it comes to industrial real estate. Last quarter, eight new buildings were delivered to the market and this quarter, we see another five new properties reach completion. Additionally, five more buildings are under construction and set to be delivered later this year. Combined, this is millions of square-feet of space, with much of it not yet occupied or preleased.

How is this new construction trend impacting the local market? Moreover, what can it tell us about the health of the local economy? Here is summary of the data from first quarter 2016 for the Central Pennsylvania industrial submarket that provides insight to help answer these questions.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

Five of the top nine Select-Year-to-Date Deliveries for first quarter 2016 are located within the Central Pennsylvania submarket. Coming in at number two on the list is 575 Old Forge Road. This property has an RBA of 500,000 square-feet and is 0% occupied. Number four on the list is the Susquehanna Logistics Center with an RBA of 4323,300 square-feet and is also 0% occupied. The third of the five Select-Year-to-Date Deliveries in Central Pennsylvania comes in at number seven on the list. It is located at 1165 Strickler Road with an RBA of 40,000 square-feet and is 100% occupied. Next, at number eight on the list, is 551 Manchester Court with an RBA of 36,000 square-feet and is 100% occupied. Finally, at number nine is 211 Piper Circle with an RBA of 26,825 square-feet and 45% occupied.

Select Top Under Construction Properties:

The incredible amount of new space being pumped into the Central Pennsylvania industrial real estate market is only going to continue to increase as five more properties are under construction and expected to be delivered in 2016. These properties include: Lebanon Valley Distribution Center with an RBA of 874,126 square-feet; Eden Road Logistics Center with an RBA of 755,421 square-feet; Trade Center 44 with an RBA of 620,000 square-feet; 192 Kost Road with an RBA of 422,400 square-feet; and LogistiCenter 78-81 with an RBA of 405,000 square-feet. All five properties are 0% preleased.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption has dropped significantly since last quarter. Previously at 1,730,592 square-feet in fourth quarter 2015, it ended first quarter 2016 at 123,946 square-feet. Contributing to this trend is the delivered inventory of five buildings this quarter and eight buildings last quarter with a combined impact of 3,904,745 square-feet of new space in six short months!

Vacancy:

This quarter, the vacant square footage jumped from 13,451,560 to 14,353,739. The vacancy % jumped from 5.3% to 5.6%, which is the highest we have seen it since fourth quarter 2014. Compared to the vacancy % that was in the 6’s and 7’s prior to second quarter 2014, this is still moderate to low, but it is showing a trend of increasing over the last year.

Rental Rates:

The quoted rental rates have increased by $0.11, from $4.11 last quarter to $4.22 this quarter. This is the highest quoted rental rate the Central Pennsylvania industrial submarket has seen since prior to second quarter 2012.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Although net absorption dropped significantly and large amounts of space continues to be added to the market, I believe that the demand for space will continue to soar. The whole chain of moving goods, from producer to consumer, is being upended by consumer shifts toward e-commerce, to the advantage of wholesalers and warehouse space, generally. Other demand drivers are also firing strongly, in concert with the continuing economic recovery. As with other property sectors, demand for space naturally rises with GDP growth and especially job growth.

But industrial demand depends on two factors, in addition to retail demand: trade and housing construction. Warehouses benefit from housing construction as home builders need large spaces in which to store their materials. Housing stats are not at the level of the mid 2000’s. But volumes have recovered nicely since the recession, with the annual rate now up to 1.1 million units, twice the rate at the depth of the recession and finally approaching the levels of the mid 1900’s prior to the housing boom.

And trade is up, building on a long upward trend for both imports and exports dating back at least 50 years due to greater trade liberalization. Exports and imports combined have tripled their share of our nation’s Gross Domestic Product, from less than 10% in the 1960’s to almost 30% now. Our growing trade means that an increasing share of products that we buy and sell, end up in warehouses at some point in their journey from producer to consumer. Putting all these factors together – rising trade, increasing housing construction, and the shift to e-commerce, all in the context of at least moderate economic growth – provide fuel for strong tenant demand for warehouse space.

How do you anticipate the boom in new industrial real estate space will impact the local market and economy? Share your insights by commenting below!

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Central Pennsylvania’s Largest Retail, Industrial and Office Lease Deals in 2015

Posted on March 23, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

The New Year is well under way, but before we get too far into 2016, it’s worth taking a look back at the largest commercial lease deals that occurred in the Central Pennsylvania market in 2015. These deals represent significant trends and help predict where the market may be headed in future quarters.

Each sector within the commercial real estate market – retail, office and industrial – experienced a unique trend worth noting. Without further ado, let’s take a closer look at the largest lease deals that occurred in Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Lancaster and Lebanon counties for the retail, office, and industrial markets in 2015.

Largest Retail Lease Deals

1. Community Aid leased the first floor of a Class B retail space located at 25-31 Rohrerstown Road, Lancaster from Urban Edge Properties. The 40,712 square-foot lease was signed in January 2015 and began in June 2015.