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Central PA’s Largest Commercial Real Estate Sales of 2018

Posted on February 25, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market, Office Leasing, Trends No Comments

Central PA’s Largest Commercial Real Estate Sales of 2018

There is much we can learn by analyzing a market’s largest commercial real estate sales in a given year. Looking at each the industrial, retail and office sectors, it’s interesting to see the varying demand for size, price and class from sector-to-sector. This tells us a lot of about the direction of economic growth for a region; and for a real estate investor, it also showcases where the best investment opportunities for the future may lie.

Here is a look at the largest commercial real estate sales that took place in Central Pennsylvania in 2018, grouped by sector and sorted by highest sell price.

INDUSTRIAL

1. 2 Ames Drive – Amazon (Carlisle)

This 700,000 SF, Class A industrial distribution building sold on December 20, 2018 to MetLife Real Estate Investments for $74,600,000. Built in 2012, this building was sold by American Realty Advisors for $106.57 per square foot. The price represents a 4.89% cap rate. American Realty Advisors had acquired the property in 2015 for $62.475 million.

2. 3700-3900 Industrial Rd – Supervalu (Harrisburg)

This 750,000 SF, Class B industrial building sold on May 1, 2018 to Fortress Investment Group LLC for $38,373,479. Built in 1985 and renovated in 1999, this building was sold by Supervalu Inc. for $51.16 per square foot. The lease agreements between Supervalu and the new landlord had an initial term for 20 years, with five five-year renewal options on a triple-net lease.

3. 6345 Brackbill Blvd – Exel Logistics (Mechanicsburg)

This 507,634 SF, Class B industrial warehouse sold on April 5, 2018 to Penwood Real Estate Investment Management, LLC for $33,100,000. Built in 1985, this building was sold by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for $66.20 per square foot. The price represents about a 6.15% cap rate on in-place income.

4. 102 Roadway Drive – Saia, Inc. (Carlisle)

This 61,658 SF, Class C, truck terminal along with 40 acres was sold in October 2018 to Saia for $32,000,000. The additional acreage pushed the sales price to over $518 per square foot. YRC, the seller, still owns and occupies the larger industrial building next to this property.

5. 571 Independence Ave – Upper Allen Business Park (Mechanicsburg)

This 378,000 SF, Class B industrial warehouse sold on August 22, 2018 to Prologis, Inc. for $24,971,824. Built in 1999, this building was part of a portfolio sold by DCT Industrial Trust for $66.06 per square foot. Prologis, Inc., a global leader in logistics real estate, acquired DCT in an all-stock acquisition of for $8.5 billion, including the assumption of debt.

RETAIL

1. 6416 Carlisle Pike – Silver Spring Square (Mechanicsburg)

This 342,603 SF power center anchored by Wegmans was sold on April 17, 2018 to The Wilder Companies for $88,810,000. Built in 2007, this building was sold by Silver Spring Square, LLC for $235.87 per square foot. The price represents an in-place cap rate of 7%.

2. 830-870 N. US Route 15 – The Dillsburg Shopping Center (Dillsburg)

This 162,783 SF neighborhood center was sold on September 24, 2018 to Vastgood Properties, LLC for $24,400,000. Built in 1994 and renovated in 2002, this property was sold by Brixmoor Property Group for $149.89 per square foot. The property traded at a 6.333% cap rate.

3. 5301 Simpson Ferry Rd – Giant (Mechanicsburg)

This 51,394 SF retail property sold on August 17, 2018 to Patriot Equity Partners, LLC for $17,540,000. Built in 2004, this property was sold by Exchange Right Real Estate, LLC for $341.28 per square foot.

4. 130 Kline Village – Kline Plaza (Harrisburg)

This 214,628 SF community center was sold to Nassimi Realty Corp. on December 12, 2018 for $8,700,000. Built in 1952, this property was sold by Brixmoor Property Group for $40.54 per square foot. The price represents a 10% in-place cap rate.

5. 1313 Kenneth Road – Dick’s Sporting Goods (York)

This 55,200 SF retail property was sold to the Stewart Companies on December 27, 2018 for $6,250,000. Built in 1988, this property was sold by First Capital Realty Inc. for $113.22 per square foot.

OFFICE

1. 1920 Technology Pky – Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (Mechanicsburg)

This 100,000 SF Class B Office Building sold on December 3, 2018 to Boyd Watterson Asset Management for $26,950,000. Built in 2010, this building was sold by Hudson Companies for $269.50 per square foot at a 7.5% cap rate. The building is fully leased to the PA Dept of Corrections.

2. 1250 Camp Hill Bypass (Camp Hill)

This 84,000 SF Class B Office Building sold on November 27, 2018 to Waterday Properties for $19,750,000. Built in 2015, this building was sold by Hoffer Properties for $235.12 per square foot. The building is leased to Hewlett Packard and Medical Mutual.

3. 1 Trinity Dr E – UPMC Pinnacle FamilyCare (Dillsburg)

This 43,212 SF Class B Medical Building sold on August 9, 2018 to Hammes Partners for $19,000,000. Built in 2008, this building was sold by Anchor Commercial Realty for $439.69 per square foot. The MOB is occupied by UPMC Pinnacle and Presbyterian Senior Living.

4. 909 Elmerton Ave – Pennsylvania DEP South Central Regional HQ (Harrisburg)

This 73,101 SF Class B Office Building sold on August 2, 2018 to Boyd Watterson Asset Management for $14,500,000. Built in 1998, this building was sold by Elmerton 909, LP for $198.36 per square foot. The building is fully occupied by the PA Dept of Environmental Protection.

5. 3801 Paxton Street (Harrisburg)

This 61,198 SF Class A Office Building sold on January 31, 2018 to Arthur L. Walters Co. for $8,425,000. Built in 2006 and updated in 2017, this building was sold by Thomas A. Salvaggio for $137.67 per square foot. The property traded at a 6.86% cap rate.

Closing Thoughts

In Central Pennsylvania and across the nation, it’s fair to say that the commercial real estate market delivered its fair share of ups and downs. Now that we’ve taken a closer look at the largest industrial, retail and office real estate sales of 2018, there are a few interesting points worth noting in each sector.

Industrial – Industrial real estate continues to lead all other real estate sectors with $529 million in sales volume in 2018. The average price was $60 per square-foot, with the average property selling for $4.2 million with a 6.3% cap rate.

Retail – A total of $346 million was invested in Central PA’s retail real estate market in 2018, an increase over 2016 and 2017. The average sale price was $107per square-foot with a 7.5% cap rate.

Office – Annual volume levels for Central PA’s office real estate market were trending down for 3 years running, but 2018 rebounded with $266 million in total sales. The average office property sold for $1.4 million with 8.2% cap rate. Two of the top five largest office sales to take place in 2018 were buildings leased to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Given the largest and most notable commercial real estate sales that took place in Central PA in 2018, do you notice any other trends this might indicate? Share your insights below by leaving a comment.

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How Opportunity Zones Could Impact Central PA Real Estate

Posted on December 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Opportunity Zones are being referred to as “real estate’s most exciting new investment vehicle,” but what are they and can they really live up to this title?

How this type of investment works and why it stands to be so beneficial is essentially this: capital gains are invested in Opportunity Zones, taxes are deferred, the basis is lowered, taxes are then paid in 2026 (at the same nominal value as in 2018), and after 2028 the Opportunity Zone holding can be sold with no capital gains tax due.

Better yet, there are very few restrictions on the properties in which one can invest. It’s estimated that there are $2.3 trillion worth of unrealized capital gains in the U.S. Even if only 15 percent of this is invested in Opportunity Zones, this will exceed the 2017 corporate income tax revenue and almost match the Medicaid spend of that same year.

The potential benefits don’t stop there. Opportunity Zones can also provide a tax deferral on gain that investors invest in a fund, and the elimination of gain in the new Opportunity Zone investment if it is held for more than 10 years.

This should paint a clearer picture as to why Opportunity Zones have real estate investors abuzz. To answer the most essential questions related to Opportunity Zones, and specifically how they stand to impact Central Pennsylvania real estate, Omni Realty has asked Silas Chamberlin to share his expertise and insight on this topic.

Silas Chamberlin, PhD is the Vice President, Economic & Community Development at York County Economic Alliance. Prior to joining YCEA in fall of 2018, he served as CEO of Downtown Inc. Chamberlin has also served as executive director of the Schuylkill River National Heritage Area, an organization promoting economic revitalization in five counties of southeastern Pennsylvania. And he has held leadership positions in the non-profit sector and state government. Throughout his career, Chamberlin has focused on helping communities leverage their unique assets to create opportunities for economic development and a higher-quality of life.

Mike Kushner of Omni Realty and Silas Chamberlin jump right to the meat of things starting with the local impact of Opportunity Zones, using the Greater York Area as a sampling.

Omni: How many census tracts in York County were approved for the Opportunity Zone program? And where?

Silas Chamberlin: York County has five designated tracts. All tracts are located in the City of York and are the tracts which encompass most of the city’s brownfield sites. Tracts in Hanover and Wrightsville were eligible for designation, but were not selected by the state.

Omni: Specifically, how will this program benefit the Greater York Area and how soon do you expect to see an initial impact?

SC: Opportunity Zones will attract additional investment to qualified projects in our five opportunity zones. The tax break should help draw investors’ attention to projects that have not benefited from private investment in the past. YCEA is a working partner to help identify viable projects within the zones to market to Qualified Opportunity Fund investors. We are also vetting the creation of local and regional funds focused on the city’s zones.

In theory, we could see funds begin investing in qualified projects at any time. Opportunity Zones are intentionally driven by the free market and individual investment decisions, so it is difficult to tell how much investment will end up in York. Observers at the national level have noted that there may be more private capital available than viable projects, so York should certainly position itself to take full advantage.

Omni: Are the tax breaks provided through this program enough to incentivize private investors and spur activity?

SC: The short answer is yes. But it would be inaccurate to view Opportunity Zones as a panacea that will turn vacant buildings into viable investment opportunities overnight. The most competitive projects will be those that are already viable without Opportunity Zone funds, but would benefit from additional investment.

Unlike New Markets Tax Credits or other popular programs, Opportunity Fund investments are unlikely to subsidize a project because the project must be able to grow in value and return an investment to the fund. YCEA’s strategy is to identify viable projects within Opportunity Zones and then use the designation to attract investors’ attention. We see this as yet another tool in our economic development financing toolbox.

Omni: Are there any drawbacks to the Opportunity Zone program?

SC: Opportunity Zones rely on a self-certification process for creating a fund, which means that investors have lots of autonomy. This also means that economic development organizations and municipalities may not always be aware of investments being made in their zones. Because the zones are distressed areas by definition, there is a higher risk that outside investment could change neighborhoods and business districts without any local engagement or controls. There are potential controls that could help guide development in Opportunity Zones—such as zoning overlays—but these tools are not yet well developed, especially in smaller cities.

Finally, there is the risk for disappointment. Opportunity Zones absolutely provide another tool to attract investment, but there is a risk in promoting them as transformational and raising the hopes of residents and developers that untapped capital will begin flowing into the census tracts that need it the most. While there is reason to be hopeful, the reality of matching qualified investors to viable projects may narrow the scope and impact of the tax break.

The Bottom Line

Experts predict that after an initial wave of Opportunity Zone fund offerings in early 2019, there may be a pause that coincides with the issuance of additional regulations during which market participants will evaluate fund and project structures. After that, barring the rise of general economic headwinds, it should be full steam ahead for Opportunity Zone funds moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, Opportunity Zone projects need to be viewed as development projects because the requirement is to create new property or substantially improve property. To reemphasize Silas Chamberlin’s point, there is surely reason to be hopeful that Opportunity Zones will flow capital into census tracts that need it the most. But we must remain cautiously optimistic about how quickly and substantially this capital will come about. Much like anything related to real estate, and especially real estate investment, most outcomes remain at the mercy of the market and ever-changing government regulations.

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How Will Trump’s Tariffs on China Impact Commercial Real Estate?

Posted on August 8, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate 2 Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this summer, President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion dollars in Chinese imports. Some fear this is certain to escalate a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. While others argue the short-term setbacks are outweighed by the long-term political and economic benefits. Which side will prove to be right? Only time will tell.

What we can expect, with a great deal of certainty, is that these tariffs will have a ripple effect on the United States’ commercial real estate industry. CRE professionals should be on high alert for several, short-term impacts that stand to reshape the investment decisions we make for the next five to ten years. Keep in mind, the tariffs must still undergo a review process, with hearings this month; however, should they be approved, here are the near-future impacts CRE professionals must be prepared to manage.

Higher Permanent Debt Costs and Construction Costs

CRE professionals should prepare for a 10-Year Treasury of about 3 ½ to 4%. Additionally, it’s reasonable to expect an increase in both permanent debt costs and construction costs. Higher prices for commodities, like steel, will hurt construction and infrastructure projects. The U.S. is already seeing more than 5% materials inflation in construction, and given these recent actions, it’s reasonable to predict this number could rise as high as 10%.

CRE Renovations Over New Construction

If the prices of construction materials increase as expected, this will change the landscape for how CRE professionals are investing in commercial real estate. An increase in raw material prices (aluminum and steel) would accelerate the trend for inflated construction cost that has already been going for years. Foremost, higher construction costs will make buying an enhancing existing commercial real estate the smarter investment over new construction.

Temporary Decrease in GDP

Even though the third quarter is normally the strongest quarter of the year, the addition of these tariffs could cause the GDP to fall below 3% this fall. However, this decrease in GDP will only be temporary if Trump prevails. It will take a patient economy to “ride the wave” until 2019 when it’s expected that GDP will reach 4% with exports rising.

Increased Inflation

In the short-term, these tariffs and counter-tariffs are predicted to add to the currently elevated 2.8% annual inflation. Let’s not forget that this inflation has already caused the Fed to raise rates in June and provides guidance for two more hikes in the second half of 2018.

What This Boils Down to for Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate (as well as residential real estate), is intricately linked to virtually every aspect of our nation’s economy; we often look to our construction and housing markets as a barometer to gauge current economic temperature, endurance, and vulnerability. The recent tariffs not only increase the costs of materials, but they may also ignite a global trade war, both of which can have a significant, negative impact on both local and national commercial real estate.

However there is one positive angle to consider. While much of the industry may feel the squeeze of elevated costs, the recent aluminum and steel tariffs don’t mean doom and gloom for the entire commercial real estate vertical. There is one sector that actually stands to benefit from the recent market flux: current property owners. Landlords of existing buildings won’t have to worry about increasing rents to cover new and unforeseen materials costs. These building owners can offer extremely competitive rent prices to potential tenants, ultimately undercutting the competition and stealing market share.

What other impacts do you anticipate Trump’s trade tariffs to have on the United States’ economy, within CRE or beyond? Do you feel short-term impacts outweigh long-term benefits or not?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below!

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Top Commercial Real Estate Projects to Impact Central PA

Posted on February 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Local Market No Comments

There is a lot of different commercial construction activity taking place in Central Pennsylvania. Looking at the top commercial real estate projects to be delivered in 2018, there are two retail projects and 4 Class A industrial projects that will enter the market, bringing with them new businesses, jobs and consumers. Let’s take a closer look at these top projects to better understand the likely impact they will have on Central Pennsylvania’s economy both now and into the future.

RETAIL

Lancaster County has two retail real estate projects under construction that are projected to have a significant impact on jobs and the economy. The anchor stores for each of the two projects are supermarket brands we have come to know and love – and ones that will surely attract consumers far and wide.

The smaller of the two projects is the Crossings at Conestoga Creek, located on U.S. Route 30 in Lancaster. The 90,000 square feet of retail space being developed will be anchored by Wegmans which will become the county’s second largest supermarket, trailing only Shady Maple Farm Market in East Earl, which is 150,000 square feet. With annual sales of $7.4 billion, Wegmans is the nation’s 32nd largest supermarket chain.

The Crossings, which sits on a 90-acre site between Toys R Us and the Lancaster Post Office, is being developed by High Real Estate Group. This new retail space will create a substantial number of jobs and attract shoppers from surrounding counties. The Wegmans store anticipates the creation of 500 to 550 new jobs, and they have already begun hiring for their grand opening in 2018.

Project at 206 Rohrerstown Road.

Lancaster’s Manheim Township has exciting news of its own as it prepares to welcome the grand opening of a Whole Foods market in 2018. The proposed $130 million Belmont housing and retail project includes the market, other retail stores and homes on farmland just south of Route 30.

Rendering of Belmont retail and housing project.

Anchoring the retail portion of the 110,508 square-foot project will be the 40,000-square-foot Whole Foods market. Additional tenants will be Two Farms, Inc. Panera Bread, Metro Diner, Fuddruckers, Citadel Federal Credit Union and Mod Pizza. The retail portion of Belmont will create nearly 1,000 jobs, while Belmont overall will generate millions of dollars in tax revenue for Lancaster.

INDUSTRIAL

Four new industrial real estate projects are also under construction in Central Pennsylvania. Though much larger in size, these spaces will have a slightly different impact on our local jobs and economy than Lancaster’s retails spaces.

The largest is the Class A industrial space located at 100 Goodman Drive in Carlisle. This is part of the Goodman Logistics Center Building 1. It was announced in August 2017 that the tenant for this 1,007,868 square-foot space will be syncreon, a global third-party logistics company headquartered in Michigan. From this prime industrial location, syncreon will have access to more than 40 percent of the population of the United States.

Project at 100 Goodman Drive.

Another Carlisle Class A industrial space soon to enter the market is the warehouse at 100 Carolina Way. This 805,600 square-foot space, currently not pre-leased, is located next to Keen Transport, U-Pack and ABF Freight. The third industrial construction project is the 738,720 square-foot space located at 112 Bordnersville Road in Jonestown (First Logistics Center – Building A). Situated in the heart of the I-78 and I-81 industrial distribution corridor, the industrial park is designed to accommodate two Class A distribution centers. The second space will be delivered in Q3 2018.

Project at 100 Carolina Way.

Project at 112 Bordnersville Road.

The final Class A industrial space which is under construction in Central PA is the Ace Hardware expansion located at 139 Fredericksburg Road, Fredericksburg. With 225,875 square-feet of space, this expansion will turn the building’s existing space into a combined 1.1 million square-feet of distribution space located at Lebanon Valley Distribution Center.

Rendering of the ACE Hardware expansion.

As Central Pennsylvania’s warehousing and distribution industry grows through the delivery of these new buildings, to what extent do you feel this will impact our local jobs and economy?

Also, which of Lancaster’s two new retail spaces do you feel will gain more traffic – short term but also long term?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below!

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Mega Warehouse Space Exploding in Central PA

Posted on December 4, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Central Pennsylvania has gained 8 warehouses, each over 1 million square-feet, since 2010.

With today’s booming e-commerce market continuing to expand, the need for sufficient storage space to meet online consumer demands is at an all-time high. To keep pace with online consumer needs, retailers look towards extra-large storage warehouses exceeding 1 million square feet, also known as “Mega Warehouses.” These warehouses are a way to keep an edge over the competition. Between 2010 and 2017, 21 of these mega warehouses were constructed in the Philadelphia Submarket which includes Central PA.

As people continue to prefer ordering goods online with a click of a button or a tap via smartphone applications, over the traditional brick and mortar storefronts, the need for these mega warehouses continues to grow. Mega warehouses around the U.S. are strategically placed outside large metro areas allowing them to benefit from the abundance of space. By maintaining access to road, sea and rail transportation channels, mega warehouses do not sacrifice their ability to directly deliver goods to consumers in a timely manner.

Top 5 Largest Warehouses in Central PA Since 2010

# 1: At the top of the list is the warehouse occupied by Georgia Pacific. Located at 234 Walnut Bottom Road, Shippensburg, the property is 1,495,700 square-feet. CBRE Global Investors purchased this property from Prologis in 2015 for $83,000,000.

# 2: Unilever PLC, the company behind brands Dove, Lipton, Ben and Jerrys and many more, occupies 1,370,052 square-feet at 954 Centerville Road, Building 3, Newville. In 2013, this building was awarded LEED certification by the U.S. Green Building Council.

# 3: Developed by Hillwood and sold to GLP in 2016, this property is located at 1605 Bartlett Drive, Manchester. Starbucks occupies the entire 1,209,000 square-foot building.

# 4: The Urban Outfitters Distribution Center located at 766 Brackbill Rd, Gap, is 1,200,000 square-feet. Completed in 2015, this property is owned by Urban Outfitters.

# 5: The Nordstrom Fulfillment Center is located at 30 Distribution Dr., Elizabethtown. This 1,142,000 square-foot facility was constructed in 2015 and is located in a designated foreign trade zone (FTZ).

Take a look at all 8 warehouse properties in Central PA that are over 1 million square-feet.

Right Here In Central PA, We Are The Hub Of All The Action!

Central Pennsylvania remains a premiere market for industrial space and it’s easy to see why. To businesses that rely upon the ease and affordability of shipping their products to make a living, Central Pennsylvania possesses four main components that drive the decision – a great roadway system, an abundant work force, relatively inexpensive and available raw land, and the ability to reach 70 to 80 percent of the U.S. population in 24 hours. Additionally, our government regulations on warehousing and distribution are comparatively easy and straightforward compared to other states or regions.

Currently, there is one mega warehouse under construction in Central PA. The Goodman Logistics Center located in Carlisle. The property is fully leased and will be occupied by Syncreon, a third-party logistics company, in early 2018. In addition, there are five proposed buildings in excess of 1 million square-feet.

Central Pennsylvania is well poised to harness the economic boost from the e-commerce boom. We have a unique opportunity to serve this industry that we can’t afford to miss!

Learn more from past market reports:

Central Pennsylvania Industrial Real Estate Report for Q2 2017

Influx of New Construction Impacts Central PA’s Industrial Real Estate Market

Central Pennsylvania Industrial Real Estate Report for Q1 2017

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Amidst Massive Retail Closings, Central PA Commercial Real Estate Continues to Grow

Posted on June 26, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

We’ve watched it on the news, read about it in the papers and have seen it in person. Several large retailers in Central Pennsylvania have made the decision to close their doors, such as Sears, Kmart, and hh gregg, as well as a growing list of other retailers struggling to stay in the black.

The landscape of retail real estate is changing, and with that the market is reacting. While some retailers are looking to move out of brick-and-mortar locations, other mega brands like Amazon are looking to move in. What does this mean for the future of retail real estate, specifically here in Harrisburg, York and Lancaster? Let’s take a look at changes that have taken place and trends that have emerged over the last 12 months.

Harrisburg

The Harrisburg retail market has gained 162,000 square-feet of new space in the last 12 months. However, in this same amount of time, the market was only able to absorb 110,000 square-feet, causing the total net absorption for the quarter to drop to a negative 153,000 square-feet. The 4.2% vacancy rate is an increase from the recent low we saw in Q1 2017, when it dipped down to 3.7%. Though the market has 0.0% rent growth, there has been $82M in sales that is almost double the historical average of $52M. Harrisburg has just 1 under-construction retail property that will be delivered in 2017 and will add 12,000 square-feet of unleased space to the market. Though we have recently seen quite a few closings of retail locations, there remains more than 20 proposed projects for new retail space including general retail, community centers and strip malls.

York

The York retail market has gained 27,000 square-feet of new retail space over the last year, with a 12-month net absorption of 152,000 square-feet. The total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 10,000 square-feet. York’s vacancy rate is a bit higher than Harrisburg’s at 5.7%, but over the past 12 months, it has decreased by 0.6%. The market experienced a very small rent growth of 0.1% and did $19M in sales in 12 months’ time. York County has 4 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 264,217 square-feet of mostly unleased space to the market.

Lancaster

In Lancaster County, 34,000 square-feet of new retail space was delivered to the market in the last 12 months. The 12-month net absorption is 169,000 square-feet and the total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 13,000 square-feet. Lancaster’s vacancy rate is much lower than York and Harrisburg, coming in at 2.4%. In the last 12 months the vacancy rate has decreased by 0.6%, reaching its lowest point back in Q4 2016 when it was 2.3%. Like Harrisburg, Lancaster did not experience a rent growth in the last 12 months, but did do $39M in sales. Lancaster County has 5 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 159,500 square-feet of space to the market, more than half of which is preleased.

Trends & Overview

In the current market, each city has its strengths and weaknesses. Harrisburg has the highest 12-month sales of the three, but the lowest net absorption for the current quarter. Lancaster has the lowest vacancy rate of the three, but has relatively unimpressive new construction projects, sales and rental growth. York has the most new retail space scheduled to be delivered in the next few years, but has the lowest 12-month sales of the three.

All things considered, each market appears to be stable and poised for additional growth. Vacancy rates have remained mostly the same or experienced a decrease, the markets are demonstrating their ability to absorb most of the new space that is being delivered, and there continues to be under-construction projects and plan for new space. These indicators provide us with confidence that real estate investors, developers and retailers continue to see value in doing business in Central Pennsylvania.

Between Harrisburg, York and Lancaster, the area offers some unique benefits including more space and at a lower cost compared to big cities. We are also a main corridor for commuters and travelers going to New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Simply put, Central Pennsylvania has the right combination of resources and advantages to remain a vibrant location for retail growth.

Do you agree? What Central PA market is having the best year so far? Share your thoughts by commenting below!

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Central Pennsylvania Industrial Real Estate Report for Q1 2017

Posted on April 20, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Region gains more than two million square feet of new industrial space in first quarter

2017 is on track to becoming one of the best years yet for industrial real estate in Central Pennsylvania – and we’ve only just wrapped up the first quarter! The market absorbed more than 2 million square feet of new space, while increasing net absorption and holding on to the highest rental rate per square foot that we’ve had in over four years. The vacancy rate also holds steady at 5.5%, even with an increase in vacant space.

The market almost can’t get its hands on space fast enough. Five of the six buildings delivered this quarter made it to CoStar’s Top 10 list. Additionally, nine new buildings are under construction and will deliver yet another 4,410,916 square feet of new space.

To see the full impact of the growth taking place in Central Pennsylvania’s industrial real estate market, take a look at the highlights from Q1 2017.

SELECT YEAR-TO-DATE DELIVERIES

Within the first quarter of 2017, Central Pennsylvania received six new industrial properties, totaling a combined 2,244,371 square feet of space. Five of these made it to CoStar’s list of Select Year-to-Date Deliveries. The first and largest is the Eden Road Logistics Center in York with 754,881 square feet of space. Next, Carlisle Distribution Center – Building 5 delivered 582,000 square feet of space. The Crossroads Logistics Center in Jonestown delivered 398,250 square feet of space. The property at 51 Commerce Drive – Building 1 in Reading delivered 339,200 square feet of space. And the property at 1451 Stoneridge Drive in Middletown contributed an additional 10,200 square feet of space.

SELECT TOP UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES

If six new properties delivering in the Q1 wasn’t enough to prove the rapid growth of industrial real estate in Central Pennsylvania, there are yet nine more properties under construction, four of which made it to CoStar’s list of Select Top Under Construction Properties. A 1.1 million square-foot property located at 100 Fry Drive, Mechanicsburg is expected to deliver in Q3. A 1,002,000 square-foot property located at 575 Old Forge Road, Jonestown is also expected to deliver in Q3. The Goodman Logistic Center Carlisle – Building 2 will deliver 938,828 square feet of space in Q2. Finally, Orchard Business Park II – Building A will deliver 780,000 square feet of space in Q4.

SELECT TOP SALES

Among the year’s select top sales, are three worth noting that took place in Central Pennsylvania. The Ames True Temper building in Carlisle (1,226,525 square feet) sold for $90,150,000 to Clarion Partners. Target Distribution Center in York (785,400 square feet) sold for $60,000,000 to AEW Capital Management. And the building at 100 Louis Parkway in Carlisle (400,596 square feet) sold for $28,850,000 to Industrial Property Trust.

ABSORPTION

2017 is setting records all around for industrial real estate in Central Pennsylvania. Q1 boasts the largest number of buildings in existing inventory (3,635) and the largest total RBA (262,658,186 square feet) we have ever seen. In less than four years, the local market gained 45 new buildings, with nine more under construction. Even with all of this new inventory entering the market, net absorption continues to increase, proving the demand for more space. Net absorption this quarter rose from 992,800 square feet to 2,107,328 square feet. This is the highest net absorption we’ve seen since Q2 2015 and the third highest since it plummeted into the negatives in Q2 2013.

VACANCY & RENTAL RATES

Total vacant space increased from 14,255,260 square feet to 14,392,303 square feet this quarter. Even with this increase, the vacancy rate holds steady at 5.5%, where it’s been since Q2 2016. The quoted rental rate also remains steady at $4.36. This is the highest price per square foot we’ve seen prior to Q2 2013, again proving a healthy demand for industrial real estate in Central Pennsylvania!

What trend from the first quarter did you find most interesting or impactful to Central Pennsylvania industrial space? Share your insights by leaving a comment below.

Learn more from past market reports:

Central Pennsylvania CRE Market Reports Q4 2016

Predictions for Trends and Changes in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Influx of New Construction Impacts Central PA’s Industrial Real Estate Market

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Central PA’s Office Market Sets Recent Records for Vacancy, RBA and Rental Rates!

Posted on October 19, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

At first glance, it didn’t appear like Q3 2016 held any exciting news for Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market. No top sales, no major projects delivered and only a couple projects under construction. But as we dug a little deeper into the numbers, we found that this quarter claimed recent record highs for RBA and quoted rental rates, as well as a record low for vacancy rate.

Together, these trends tell us that good things are happening within the local office real estate market, with numbers that continue to indicate growing demand. Let’s take a closer look at the highlights from Q3 2016 which we can use to analyze the current market and predict future trends.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

CoStar’s list of Select Year-to-Date Deliveries includes two properties in Central Pennsylvania. Though none of these were delivered in Q3, it’s worth recapping that activity that has taken place so far in 2016. The Sterling Place Corporate Center in Mechanicsburg was delivered in Q2 with 129,000 square-feet of fully leased space. At 440 Walker Road, Chambersburg, 9,199 square-feet of space was delivered in Q1. Only 63% was preleased.

Top Under-Construction Properties:

Although no new properties were delivered in Q3, we expect to see at least one new office building delivered to the Central PA market in Q4. This property, located on Hogestown Road in Mechanicsburg, will add 129,000 square-feet of office space. It is 100% preleased.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption dropped this quarter by 70,917 square-feet. There has been a lot of fluctuation in net absorption from quarter to quarter and this continues in line with the trend. Total RBA did not budge from last quarter which was 54,902,624 square-feet. This maintains the recent record high that we reached in Q2, the highest RBA in Central PA since prior to Q4 2012.

Vacancy & Rental Rate:

Vacancy decreased again this quarter to a recent record low of 6.0%. This is the lowest vacancy rate we have experienced since prior to Q4 2012. As might be expected with a decrease in vacancy, we also experienced an increase in the quoted rental rate. Now at $17.30 per square-foot, this is $0.04 higher than last quarter and only $0.03 less than the recent record high of $17.33 we saw in Q1 2016.

Our Summary/Analysis:

All in all, Q3 brought positive news for Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market. An increase in demand for space is driving down vacancy and driving up the price per square foot. New properties are at least 50%, if not 100%, preleased before they even hit the market. With another 100% preleased property expected to be delivered next quarter, we predict that 2016 will have a strong finish, indicating a healthy and growing office market.

Based upon the data for Q3 2016, what do you find to be most interesting or important? Share your insight by commenting below!

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Central Pennsylvania’s Retail Real Estate Market Experiences Record-Setting Quarter

Posted on September 15, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

This quarter has posted some of the highest and lowest numbers we have seen since 2012. In Central Pennsylvania’s local retail real estate market, vacancy rate is low, rental rate is high and both net absorption and total RBA have increased. But overall, what does this tell us about the state of our economy and what we can expect in future quarters?

Let’s take a closer look at some of the record-setting numbers we experienced in Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market in 2016’s second quarter and what they mean to the health of the economy.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

Coming in at number three on the list of select year-to-date deliveries is the retail property located at I-81 and Walker Road in Chambersburg. Phase I and II, delivered in Q1 2016, total 109,237 square-feet of space that is 92% leased (44,000 square-feet with 4,400 square-feet vacant). Some of the major tenants include Kohl’s, Target, Giant, Red Robin, Staples, PetSmart, Michael’s, Olive Garden, VisionWorks, ATT&T and many more. Palisades Development, LLC are currently processing LOIs for the remaining space. Phase III is planned and construction will proceed when leasing warrants.

At number 15 on CoStar’s list, is another Palisades Development, LCC retail property located at 968 Norland Avenue in Chambersburg. This 10,800 square-foot building is 100% occupied and was also delivered in Q1 2016.

Select Top Retail Leases:

On the list of Select Top Retail Leases, Harrisburg area east claimed the top spot. Listed at number one is the Harrisburg East Shopping Center with 69,954 square-feet of space. Although not listed by CoStar’s as a “Select Top Retail Lease” for this quarter, plans are in place for the Giant currently in Colonial Commons, to make a move 0.2 miles down Jonestown Road to the Harrisburg East Shopping Center into the retail space formerly occupied by Gander Mountain. This will provide more space for Giant and is already attracting additional retail businesses nearby including a CVS Pharmacy and potentially a fast-casual restaurant, reports KIMCO, owner of the shopping center.

Select Top Sales:

Only one of the nine Select Top Sales from April 2015-June 2016 is from the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Shoppes at Susquehanna Marketplace sold for $44,000,000 to Clarion Partners. With an RBA of 110,365 square-feet, this came at a cost of $398.68 per square foot.

Additionally, the West Porte Center, listed by CoStar as a Select Top Retail Lease, is more accurately represented as a sale. PennDOT purchased 67,126 square-feet of land for a new Amtrak station in Middletown that is expected to be finished in 2018. This is estimated to be a $32 million project which will include features like a covered pedestrian bridge to provide direct access to Penn State Harrisburg’s campus.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption increased this quarter from 64,467 square-feet (in Q1) to 110,449 square-feet, currently. Total RBA also increased, though just slightly, from 88,822,714 square-feet (in Q1) to 88,854,312 square-feet, currently. Six buildings were delivered with a total RBA of 31,598 square-feet. Additionally, five buildings are under construction.

Vacancy:

This quarter, the vacancy rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.7%. This once again matches the vacancy rate of Q4 2015, which is the lowest rate the Central PA submarket has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Rental Rate:

The quoted rental rate increased this quarter by $0.11 to $12.00. This is the highest price per square-foot the local retail real estate market has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Q2 2016 provided to be an exciting and record-setting quarter for Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market. We experienced a recent record low for vacancy rate at 4.7% and a recent record high for quoted rental rate at $12.00 per square-foot. These two trends go hand in hand, so it’s no surprise they would correlate together.

Another positive indicator for the health of the retail real estate market is the increase in net absorption and total RBA. Though neither were record-setting per se, net absorption nearly doubled in a single quarter which is impressive in its own right. It’s safe to say that the market is growing in demand, increasing in price and is able to absorb the new buildings that have been delivered.

What trend do you think will have the greatest impact on the Central Pennsylvania retail market? Share your insight by commenting below!

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New Industrial Space Popping Up All Over Central PA While Vacancy and Rental Rates Increase

Posted on August 14, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

The Central Pennsylvania industrial real estate market is an active place to be right now! In second quarter 2016, three new properties were delivered with three more under construction. Most interestingly, none of this new space is preleased. Both vacancy and rental rates continue to rise to some of the highest numbers we have seen in recent quarters.

What do these trends tell us about the health of the industrial market and the local economy? Let’s take a closer look at the highlights from second quarter 2016.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

The Lebanon Valley Distribution Center, located at 139 Fredericksburg Road, Fredericksburg was delivered this quarter with an RBA of 874,126 square-feet that is not preleased. Another Central Pennsylvania building delivered in second quarter 2016 is the property at 192 Kost Road, Carlisle. It has an RBA of 422,200 square-feet and is not preleased. Third, LogistiCenter 78-81 delivered another 405,000 square-feet of unleased space this quarter. Combined, this is 1,701,326 square feet of new, unleased industrial space delivered in second quarter 2016.

Top Under-Construction Properties:

In addition to the buildings delivered to the market this quarter, there are three more under-construction properties in Central Pennsylvania that will be delivered in the coming year. The Eden Road Logistics Center will be delivered in fourth quarter 2016. It has an RBA of 754,881 square-feet and is 0% preleased. Trade Center 44 is also expected to deliver in fourth quarter 2016. This property has an RBA of 620,000 square-feet and is 0% preleased. Finally, Crossroads Logistic Center is expected to deliver in first quarter 2017 with an RBA of 398,250 square-feet. It is also 0% preleased.

Select Top Sales:

Three of the nine Select Top Sales between April 2015 and June 2016 took place in Central Pennsylvania. Coming in at number one on the list is Park 81 in Shippensburg. This 1,495,720 square-foot facility sold for $83,000,000 to CBRE Global Investors, LTD. Number five on the list is 100 Louis Parkway in Carlisle. This 400,596 square-foot facility sold for $28,850,000 to Industrial Property Trust. The final Central Pennsylvania property on the list, ranking number seven, is located at 1225 S. Market Street, Mechanicsburg. With 596,703 square-feet, this property sold for $21,350,000 to Allen Distribution.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption once again dropped this quarter to 69,303 square-feet. If this trend does not soon reverse, we are inching our way closer to a negative net absorption that we have not seen since second quarter 2013. Net absorption has been declining each quarter since reaching a peak of 2,382,561 square-feet in second quarter 2015. Though this quarter was not the drastic decrease we have seen in most recent quarters, it is still contributing to the downward trend.

Vacancy:

Vacancy has increased this quarter, rising to 6.0%. This is the highest vacancy rate we have seen since second quarter 2014. After reaching a low of 4.5% in second quarter 2015, vacancy has continued to rise steadily.

Rental Rate:

The quoted rental rate is also on the rise. Second quarter 2016 ended with a rate of $4.30 per square foot. This is the highest rate we have seen since prior to third quarter 2012. It was only midway through 2015 when we saw this rate exceed $4.00 and it has been steadily rising ever since.

Our Summary/Analysis:

With so much new, unleased space entering the Central Pennsylvania industrial real estate market right now, it’s obvious why net absorption continues to decrease. By first quarter 2017, another three new, unleased buildings will be completed which leads us to predict that a negative net absorption in in our not too distant future. Following this trend, vacancy rates will continue to rise as well.

Where it gets interesting is even with all of this new, unleased space and vacancy rates on the rise, second quarter 2016 experienced the highest quoted rental rate we have seen in recent years. What this tell us is that the demand for industrial space in Central Pennsylvania continues to outpace supply.

In a recent Central Penn Business Journal article, many experts weigh in on the thriving industrial market. The consensus? We will continue to see growth, especially with retailers’ increased emphasis on faster home deliveries. To accomplish one-day deliveries, for example, this calls for more facilities in closer proximity. The demand may not necessarily be for larger warehouses, but for more warehouses placed in prime locations. And Central Pennsylvania is a prime location for warehousing and distribution, indeed!

What additional impact do you think all of this new industrial space will have on the Central Pennsylvania market? Share your insight by commenting below!

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