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Commercial Real Estate’s Impact on Last Mile Logistics

Posted on July 15, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Retail No Comments

Logistics is the relay race that materials and goods compete in every day moving across land, sea, and air cargo to the end-user, and commercial real estate is the field on which it all plays out.

The ability for the items we need to make it from the place in which they are created to where the end-user can access them is essential to our existence. When logistics are inefficient or disrupted on even the smallest scale, it takes virtually no time until the world feels the impact of delayed goods. At a minimum, it’s an inconvenience, but it can quickly escalate into a global panic where progress is delayed and prices skyrocket.

We need no better example as to how this plays out in real life than to look at the impact of COVID-19 on the world’s shipping and distribution, specifically here in the United States. The challenges we continue to face with shipping and receiving items overseas, combined with unprecedented labor shortages have caused scarcity, unlike anything our modern world is used to. And the ripples caused by this disruption left virtually no industry unscathed.

This also shines a spotlight on the importance of last mile logistics, which is the final step of the delivery process from a distribution center or facility to the end-user. Many items delayed by COVID-19 were within miles of reach, but without labor and infrastructure to deliver these items within their usual time frame, basic building materials and household items couldn’t be restocked fast enough to keep shelves full.

Shifting the Modern Logistics Model

How does this relate to commercial real estate? Redundancy and the ability to process disruption are two key elements required to support the fast-moving, high-volume requirements of modern-day logistics. And that is particularly true of the “shop-online-and-deliver-to-me” era in which we find ourselves.

Based upon the challenging lessons learned from the global pandemic, logistics are shifting toward a new model that replaces the decades-old “just-in-time” supply-chain model rooted in tens of thousands of physical retail stores in order to meet the demands of a “shop and take home” economy. Therefore, we should expect to see a disruption in commercial real estate demand and use. There will be less dependency on physical stores and more on modern eCommerce warehouses that will be increasingly automated with less reliance on labor.

The Golden Triangle

We can then expect the rapid continuation of traditional retail big-box stores being replaced by hundreds of millions of square feet of eCommerce warehouses in an effort to follow the modern logistics infrastructure. These new eCommerce warehouse locations are being developed in what some economists have coined as the “Golden Triangle.” The Golden Triangle refers to an area of the East Midlands that has become renowned for its high density of distribution facilities and being home to some of the biggest names in retail.

The Golden Triangle is the epicenter of last mile logistics. This area that makes up the nation’s logistics infrastructure has never been more vital in a post-WWII era, and this includes a dependency on commercial real estate. As thousands of retail stores shutter their brick and mortar locations in the coming months, the demand for commercial real estate space shifts from retail to industrial with thousands of new logistics and eCommerce fulfillment warehouses opening and expanding within the Golden Triangle.

Impact of Current Events

These trends in commercial real estate and logistics will be further exacerbated by current events such as Biden’s plan for a “go-broad” infrastructure bill. This plan proposes a massive $2.25 trillion to fix America’s rundown infrastructure, “green up” the economy and invest in new technologies. Furthermore, there is the pending mega rail merger between Kansas City Southern and Canadian National that will create the first true Class 1 railroad in North America extending from the deep interior of Canada, down through the center of the United States, and on south to the most vital ports and manufacturing regions in Mexico.

And if that wasn’t enough to ensure massive changes coming down the line that will impact commercial real estate and logistics, there is also the industrial REIT merger between Monmouth MREIC and Sam Zell’s EQC in which he is trading in his office commercial real estate model for a new hybrid-powered industrial real estate model that is going all-in on logistics.

What we’re witnessing is a shattered economy that is rapidly adjusting in order to right the many ships that have veered off course in the wake of the pandemic. While there are many unknowns, what we can be sure to expect is widespread, lasting changes sweeping the commercial real estate market – some we’ve seen coming for quite a while, and others that will completely take us by storm.

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Economic Impact of Rising Commercial Construction Costs

Posted on July 14, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

When a global pandemic first hit, the main concern was rightfully on the health and wellbeing of our population. As we slowly gained knowledge and tools to bring the spread of this virus under control, something equally as powerful and disruptive was already burning through the economy like wildfire.

Ongoing pandemic-related disruptions in the supply chain of a range of construction materials are undermining project demand and this has trickled down to impact just about every industry imaginable. Most directly, the delays and cost increases fall on construction businesses, their workers, and their clients who are waiting on them to complete projects varying from a single-family home to mega complexes that have been in the works for years.

These mass shortages caused by the inability to ship or receive some of our economy’s most essential materials, such as lumber and steel, have the construction industry in between a rock and a hard place. And we can be sure that they will not be the only sector to feel the blow of delayed project timelines and skyrocketing costs. How does all of this stand to impact the progress and financial health of our economy? Keep reading for key insights.

Understanding the Impact

According to construction project estimators, one of the biggest reasons for material shortages is the inability to ship available materials by rail or truck. Due to container and trucking shortages being felt across the country, anything with significant shipping and logistics components is highly likely to cause lead time issues. If the easing of tariffs is put into place, pricing and availability should begin to return to normal levels, which would have a positive impact on current projects and the market as a whole. However, with the shipping container and freight backlog that currently exists, bringing in significant quantities of overseas material only adds to the current challenge.

GRAPH COURTESY OF AGC OF AMERICA

Shortages Drive Cost

While general contractors can usually protect against the expectation that costs will increase, the construction industry has not experienced such dramatic material cost increases in recent history. Material cost increases, coupled with the already existing labor and housing shortages, will continue to impact the industry, domestically and globally, for the foreseeable future. Such shortages could delay the start of new projects around the country and may trigger additional claims on projects that are currently underway.

These increases and challenges are cause for concern; it’s important for business owners to consider the types of materials that their project will require. While commercial construction material costs have risen as well, it is not to the extent that residential construction costs rose due to its heavy reliance on softwood lumber. For commercial construction, steel prices generally have a greater impact.

Delays Across the Board

Some material suppliers have completely canceled their bids or contracts due to the lack of materials. While others have indicated delays of six months or more and are currently quoting prices for materials (like engineered wood products) that will not ship until early 2022! Because of these setbacks, the industry can expect an increase in claims and disputes over material prices and associated delays.

Getting Creative with Contracts

Project participants might consider amending their contracts, incorporating new or modified cost-escalation provisions, or adding riders for adjustments to contract terms based on certain material cost increases, such as based on express percentage increases. Parties might also negotiate contract allowances for certain materials or incorporate cost-sharing for material price increases that exceed certain thresholds.

Push On or Wait?

Borrowing is very inexpensive right now, and even a slight increase in lending rates down the road could add hundreds of thousands of dollars in overall costs, depending on the length of the loan agreement. Project owners need to weigh the risks of waiting for material prices to come down against the probability of rising inflation and interest rates. Likewise, if waiting means you can’t expand your production capacity, grow your business, or address the needs of those you serve because of your facility’s limitations, the long-term implications could negate and even overshadow any potential savings.

What’s most important to keep in mind is that the market has demonstrated again and again that everything flows. Trends (and troubles) will come and go, and when the market experiences a negative impact caused by something else, it will look to correct itself almost immediately. To address the delay of construction materials and labor, and the rise in construction costs, as a result, we can see solutions already emerging. These range from using alternate materials, negotiating more flexible terms within a contract, phasing out projects, and getting creative with how and when to borrow money to take advantage of low-interest rates.

The commercial construction industry will rebound, if not even stronger than it was before the pandemic hit. The lesson here is to remain patient, seek innovative and collaborative solutions, and keep your eyes set on the long-term evening-out of any negative impact you may be experiencing today.

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Central PA’s Top Commercial Real Estate Leases in 2020

Posted on February 22, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market, Office Leasing, Trends No Comments

In spite of 2020’s black swan event (COVID-19), leasing activity in Central Pennsylvania continued with mixed results. Normally insulated from strong economic downturns, the coronavirus tested the Central Pennsylvania Region and there are reasons for both concern and optimism.

On the negative side: massive job losses in retail and a significant manufacturing base could cause serious disruption. Roughly 30,000 people were employed in the retail sector in March, and close to that number were also employed in manufacturing. Though manufacturing’s future remains less clear and the market could be buoyed by the region’s deep presence of food production, retail has been hard hit by the shutdown.

While being the state’s capital will provide some shelter in the coming months, Pennsylvania’s fiscal situation is a mess. Financial troubles could portend future government layoffs and by the third quarter, the state had already cut 2,500 government jobs.

There’s little chance the economy doesn’t cool in Central Pennsylvania but the market does have some factors working in its favor. BLS data shows the market has lost about 5% of its total non-farm employment levels since March. While this is obviously a significant reduction, it does compare well with nearby Lehigh Valley and Pittsburgh. While Harrisburg’s demographic gains won’t raise any eyebrows, the region does stand out in Pennsylvania. Cumberland County is one of the fastest-growing counties in the state, likely aided by the growing logistics and warehouse presence along the Carlisle Corridor.

The logistics sector is expected to hold up well and perhaps even grow as e-commerce continues its acceleration. An Adobe report from June showed that online spending was up 77% year over year, representing growth in e-commerce that experts were not forecasting the country to reach until 2026. Central Pennsylvania’s location is prime for shipping, and such a scenario could lead to more jobs and perhaps fuel additional growth in population.

Additionally, Central Pennsylvania is also trying to evolve into a knowledge-based economy and has adopted business-friendly incentives that have helped create nearly two dozen tech startups, which have generated 1,000 jobs. Education and health services jobs, which now track evenly with government jobs in the state’s capital, grew by more than 4% annually.

How does the ever-shifting economy impact the commercial real estate market, particularly as it pertains to commercial leases?

It comes as no surprise that industrial real estate leases in 2020 carried the largest square footage, with the top lease coming in at more than 1.1M SF to Lowes Distribution Center in Shippensburg. Additionally, Bob’s Discount Furniture will be moving into the former Best Buy in Lancaster, and Hershey will be getting a new Big Lots in the Hershey Square Shopping Center. The top five flex leases also provided businesses with hundreds of thousands of Class B Flex Space. Keep reading to view the top 5 leases from 2020 for office, retail, industrial, and flex space.

Top 5 Office Leases

#1 – 1929 Lasalle Ave – Bldg 134, Lancaster, PA 17601

High Associates Ltd. leased out the 29,000 SF Class C Office Building built in 1974 to Equipment Depot beginning in January of 2020 for a 1-year term. It had previously been vacant for 164 months.

#2 – 1803 Mt Rose Ave – Bldg B, York, PA 17403

Kinsley Properties leased out the 23,704 SF Class C Office Building built in 1988 to IDS, LLC beginning in February of 2021 for a 5-year term. It had previously been vacant for 13 months.

#3 – 990 Peiffers Ln – NRG Engine Services, Harrisburg, PA 17109

Campbell Commercial Real Estate leased out the 23,382 SF Class B Office Building built in 1987 to UPS Midstream Services Inc. beginning in February of 2020 for an unspecified term.

#4 – 1770 Hempstead Rd – Greenfield Corporate Center, Lancaster, PA 17601

High Associates Ltd. leased out the 16,088 SF Class B Office Building built in 1990 to an unnamed leasee beginning in November of 2020 for unspecified term. It had previously been vacant for 19 months.

#5 – 200 Corporate Center Dr – 200 Corporate Center Dr, Camp Hill, Camp Hill, PA 17011

Cushman & Wakefield leased out the 11,655 SF Class A Office Building built in 1986 to an unnamed leasee in August of 2020 for an unspecified term. It had previously been vacant for 52 months.

Top 5 Retail Leases

#1 – 3975 Columbia Ave, Columbia, PA 17512

The 86,100 SF Class B Retail Building built in 1992 was leased to U-Haul, as the single tenant, beginning in June of 2021.

#2 – 1801 Hempstead Rd – Former Best Buy, Lancaster, PA 17601

Bennett Williams Commercial and ShopCore Properties leased out the 45,915 SF Class B Retail Building built in 2009 to Bob’s Discount Furniture beginning in September of 2020 for a 10-year term. It had previously been vacant for 23 months.

#3 – 921 E Main St – Mount Joy Square Shopping Center, Mount Joy, PA 17552

Bennett Williams Commercial leased out the 44,761 SF Class B Retail Building built in 1989 to an unnamed business beginning in March of 2021. It had previously been vacant for 25 months.

#4 – 1130-1170 Mae St – Hershey Square Shopping Center, Hummelstown, PA 17036

Bennett Williams Commercial leased out the 38,202 SF Class B Retail Building built in 1994 to Big Lots beginning in June of 2020 for a 10-year term. It had previously been vacant for 12 months.

#5 – 4075 E. Market St – York, PA 17402

The Flynn Company leased 27,000 SF Class C Industrial/Manufacturing Building built in 1972 to No Piston, LLC beginning in October of 2020 for a 5-year term.

Top 5 Industrial Leases

#1 – 1 Walnut Bottom Rd – Shippensburg 81 Logistics Center, Shippensburg, PA 17257

Colliers International leased out the 1,100,500 SF Class A Industrial Building completed in 2020 to Lowes Distribution Center beginning in February of 2021. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 160 months.

#2 – 200 Goodman Dr – Building 2, Carlisle, PA 17013

CBRE leased out the 938,828 SF Class A Industrial Building built in 2017 to Syncreon beginning in December 2020. It had previously been vacant for 44 months.

#3 – 951 Centerville Rd – Penn Commerce Center – Building A, Newville, PA 17241

Cushman & Wakefield leased out the 807,998 SF Class A Industrial Building to an unnamed leasee. It had previously been vacant for 5 months.

#4 – 4875 Susquehanna Trl – ES3 LLC Bldg 1, York, PA 17406

The 790,042 SF Class B Industrial Building was leased to ES3, a Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services company, beginning in February 2020 for an unspecified term.

#5 – Centerville Rd – Penn Commerce Center – Building B, Newville, PA 17241

Cushman & Wakefield leased out the 753,000 SF Class B Industrial Building to an unnamed lease beginning on January 2021. It had previously been vacant for 3 months.

Top 5 Flex Leases

#1 – 60-64 Industrial Rd, Elizabethtown, PA 17022

Cushman & Wakefield leased out the 113,720 SF Class B Flex Space completed in 1992 to WillScot beginning in September of 2020. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 13 months.

#2 – 1740 Hempstead Rd – Building 380, Lancaster, PA 17601

High Associates, Ltd. leased out the 34,000 SF Class B Flex Space completed in 1964 to an unnamed business beginning in January of 2021. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 92 months.

#3 – 6400 Flank Dr, Harrisburg, PA 17112 – Harrisburg Area East Ind Submarket

NAI CIR leased out the 32,212 SF Class B Flex Space completed in 1987 to an unnamed business beginning in June of 2020. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 3 months.

#4 – 1000 Kreider Dr – Building A, Middletown, PA 17057

CBRE leased out the 12,030 SF Class B Flex Space completed in 2006 to an unnamed business beginning in August of 2020. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 8 months.

#5 – 3545 Marietta Ave – Silver Spring Center, Lancaster, PA 17601

Prospect Leasing & Management leased out the 7,192 SF Class B Flex Space completed in 1997 to an unnamed business beginning in January of 2021 for a 5-year term. It had previously been a vacant shell space for 6 months.

With so much square footage having exchanged hands in Central PA in 2020, it will be interesting and important to keep an eye on how these businesses impact the region. There were quite a few properties that made it to this list that had sat vacant for years. Now with new tenants, this will drive jobs and contribute to the local economy. And with some of these leasing terms for 5, even 10 years, these businesses have made a commitment to being here long-term.

Among all the top leasing deals that took place in 2020, which sector – office, retail, industrial, or flex – do you think will have the largest and most immediate impact on the Central PA region? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.

*Data of the top commercial real estate sales provided by CoStar.

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How COVID-19 Has Impacted Business Insurance

Posted on February 10, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

The world is still responding and adjusting to the ripple effects that the COVID-19 impact had on every business, industry, and person. Where will it stop? No one knows, but we do know that where impact occurred, so did change. This rings true for the commercial insurance industry which suddenly found itself faced with a ton of unique circumstances. As businesses changed their services and practices to adjust to COVID-19 shutdowns, limitations, and new protocols, many also found themselves reviewing their commercial insurance policies to see where they might be covered for losses.

To help answer some of the unknown on this topic, we looked to a local professional. Alan Hostetler of Alan Hostetler Insurance Agents and Brokers, Inc. has provided us with his insight on the topic of how COVID-19 has impacted business insurance policies here in Central Pennsylvania. Since 1974, Alan Hostetler Insurance Agents and Brokers, Inc. has been providing insurance coverage for Central Pennsylvania. With experience providing personal, commercial, health, and life insurance, Alan brings extensive knowledge and insight to this topic. Keep reading for our Q&A with Alan.

Omni: How has COVID-19 impacted business insurance policies?

Alan: Surprisingly, COVID-19 has had only a minor impact on business insurance policies. This is mostly because the exposure to potential losses incurred during a global pandemic is excluded either by intent or by specific exclusion. Unfortunately for most businesses looking for insurance to cover the cost of various losses incurred due to COVID-19, their business insurance policy was not designed to provide protection from a pandemic.

Omni: What changes do you anticipate being made to insurance policies in light of the global pandemic?

Alan: This is an exposure that cannot be easily measured or assessed, therefore insurance companies will likely avoid even offering “pandemic” coverage. There may be a few specialty companies that may offer a limited policy (in scope and limits) at a very high premium which will discourage any potential customer. Though (hopefully) a global pandemic of this proportion is not likely to reoccur any time soon, insurance is simply not likely to provide businesses with any sort of protection from such losses in the future.

Omni: What are your thoughts on the UK Supreme Court unanimously ruling in favor of the policyholders regarding the non-damage insurance policy clauses — which cover disease and denial of access to business premises?

Alan: Though I am not familiar with the ruling, I would suggest that the coverage offered in the UK is totally different than offered in the US. Our coverage in the U.S. can vary by state so it is difficult to comment on the structure of insurance in the UK. There have been several instances in the U.S. that the Business Income coverage has been tested but the courts ruled in favor of the insurance companies. The is no ambiguity in the policy language.

Omni: Do you feel that a similar case may make its way to the US? Share your thoughts on what this might look like.

Alan: There have been several in the U.S. and one namely in New Jersey which was shot down.

Omni: What advice do you have for local business owners regarding how they are insured and how they may protect themselves in the future from something like a global pandemic?

Alan: The last Pandemic in the U.S. was the Spanish Flu at the end of World War I. The insurance industry will not be the answer. If a company does offer the coverage it will be with a specific limit of insurance, large deductible, and high premium – so overall, a very undesirable product.

Omni Realty Group thanks Alan for sharing such insightful and candid information. While most businesses would be hopeful that there could be an insurance policy that could act as a magic wand and protect them from all risks and losses, that will never be the case for several compelling reasons. Fortunately, there are plenty of other insurance options to protect other assets that are of value to a business. As for the impact of COVID-19, businesses would do best to remain attentive to ways they can shift their processes to remain an accessible and convenient option to customers until we can work our way through this pandemic.

Do you have a question related to COVID-19 and commercial insurance policies, or an experience to share? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Impact of Eliminating Like-Kind-Exchange on Commercial Real Estate

Posted on January 18, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Right before the 2020 election took place, we shared important information as to how any new president of the United States would impact just about everything, including commercial real estate. Specifically, we examined Joe Biden’s plan to introduce a new probate real estate tax that would greatly reduce inheritances in the future as beneficiaries will have to pay tax on non-qualified assets. Now with President-Elect Joe Biden set to become the 46^th President of the United States, the tax implications are becoming much more real and worthy of a closer look. Continue reading to learn how his platform will likely impact like-kind-exchange on commercial real estate, and what this could mean for you as a real estate investor.

The History of Like-Kind-Exchanges

Since 1921, investors have been permitted to defer paying capital gains taxes on investment property sales. In return, they must reinvest the proceeds into a similar investment property within a specified time frame, typically 45 days to identify the replacement property and 180 days to complete a transaction. To look at it another way, 1031 exchange (named from Section 1031 of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code to which it refers) is a swap of properties that are held for business or investment purposes. The properties being exchanged must be considered like-kind in the eyes of the IRS for capital gains taxes to be deferred. Biden’s policy proposal, which is referred to as “The Biden Plan for Mobilizing American Talent and Heart to Create a 21st Century Caregiving and Education Workforce” could eliminate 1031 like-kind exchanges for high earning real estate investors.

Proposed Changes

According to Biden’s administration, “The plan will cost $775 billion over 10 years and will be paid for by rolling back unproductive and unequal tax breaks for real estate investors with incomes over $400,000 and taking steps to increase tax compliance for high-income earners.”

The overarching goal of this change is to prevent investors from deferring the payment of taxes on the sale of real estate. On the surface, to those not investing in commercial real estate, such a change may seem positive or even necessary. But recent studies led by the Real Estate Research Consortium concluded that eliminating 1031 exchanges would disrupt many local property markets, harm both tenants and owners, and small investors.

Furthermore, a study conducted by David Ling Ph.D., a professor at the University of Florida, and Milena Petrova Ph.D., an associate professor at Syracuse University, claims that eliminating 1031 exchanges would likely lead to a decrease in commercial real estate prices in many markets, less reinvestment in commercial and residential real estate, a greater use of leverage to finance acquisitions, and an increase in investment holding periods that would result in a decrease in market liquidity and a slowdown in related industries.

The (Unintended) Impact

Simply put, the entire real estate sector benefits from such exchanges. Brokers and agents receive more deals, banks and mortgage lenders gain more borrowers, other property owners benefit from an increase in demand for real estate, tenants receive more affordable housing options, and cities and localities benefit from higher property taxes and more investments back into their real estate economy. So whatever perceived benefit Biden’s administration hopes to gain from eliminating like-kind exchanges in commercial real estate, they will certainly pay for, ten-fold, in negative consequences.

Here are just a few examples we can immediately spot. In the longer run, rents would need to increase from eight to 13 percent to offset the effects of elimination, and cost increases would be more pronounced in high-tax states (such as NY, NJ, CA, HI, MN). And in case anyone still believes that 1031 exchanges are an end-around used by the rich to never pay taxes, the estimated taxes paid when an exchange is followed by a taxable sale are on average 19 percent higher than taxes paid when an ordinary sale is followed by an ordinary sale.

A Done Deal?

Like anything in government and politics, nothing is set in stone until it’s, well, set in stone (or ink). So, Biden’s changes are by no means a done deal, and may take a good deal of time to come to fruition, if at all. Upon Biden becoming the nation’s 46^th president, this does open the door to a whole host of changes that very well may impact commercial real estate investors on the take front. The best thing you can do right now, and this goes for anyone, not just CRE investors, is to meet with a tax advisor, tax, attorney, CPA, etc., to review what changes could be coming down the line and how this should impact the decisions you’re making today. As you prepare to close out your taxes for 2020, you may wish to make some changes and move things around to put you in a more favorable position for any changes that may be coming down the line.

How might the eliminations of like-kind-exchanges impact your financial future and the decisions you make regarding real estate? Do you feel this is a likely threat to CRE investments?

Join in the conversation and share your opinion by leaving a comment below.

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Central PA’s Top Commercial Real Estate Sales in 2020

Posted on January 15, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market, Retail, Trends No Comments

2020 was quite the year, but even a global pandemic did not halt the exchanging of commercial real estate. In Central Pennsylvania, the sale of commercial real estate continued well through the end of the year with hundreds of millions of square-feet being bought and sold. As to be expected, the largest commercial real estate transactions in both square feet and price was industrial space. More than 3.5 million SF of industrial space exchanged hands in 2020 with the most taking place in York and Carlisle which are major distribution destinations along the I-81 corridor.

The top 5 multifamily sales in Central PA ranged in price in location, from 160 Class A units in one transaction and 663 Class C units in a Manufactured Housing/Mobile Home Park in another. The largest exchange of space in a single transaction was 339,612 SF in a townhouse complex in Marietta.

Three of the top five office sales exchanged hands between the same two parties. AR Global purchased 50,800 SF of office space, primarily occupied by health centers, from RVG Management and Development Company. In retail sales, the Blackstone Group L.P. sold 274,764 SF of York retail space to a joint venture between Triple Crown Corporation and J.C. Bar Properties, Inc. in three separate transactions.

Keeping reading for a full list of the top 5 commercial real estate transactions, for office, retail, industrial, and multifamily, that took place throughout Central Pennsylvania in 2020.

Top 5 Office Sales

#1 – 1171 S Cameron Street, Harrisburg, PA 17104

Olcam Corporation sold the 121,518 SF Class C Office Building built in 1989

to Boyd Watterson Asset Management on July 22, 2020 for $20,500,000 ($168.70/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by the Pennsylvania Department of Labor & Industry.

#2 – 300 Corporate Center Drive – Camp Hill Corporate Center, Camp Hill, PA 17011

LNR Partners LLC sold the 173,296 SF Class A Office Building built in 1989 (renovated in 2005) to Linlo Properties on July 6, 2020 for $14,394,731 ($83.06/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 62.5% occupied by Deloitte and Pennsylvania Health & Wellness, Inc.

#3 – 805 Sir Thomas Court – Arlington Place – Old English Gap Professional Park, Harrisburg, PA 17109

RVG Management and Development Company sold the 24,800 SF Class B Medical Building built in 1994 to AR Global Investments, LLC on January 16, 2020 for $7,812,000 ($315.00/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Pennsylvania Spine Institute and PinnacleHealth Express.

#4 – 2140 Fisher Road, Mechanicsburg, PA 17055

RVG Management and Development Company sold the 15,000 SF Class C Office Building built in 1990 (renovated in 2016) on January 16, 2020 to AR Global Investments, LLC for $5,394,000 ($359.60/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by PinnacleHealth Shepherdstown Family Practice.

#5 – 5400 Chambers Hill Road – Swatara Medical Center, Harrisburg, PA 17111

RVG Management and Development Company sold the 11,000 SF Class B Office Building built in 1988 (renovated in 1993) to AR Global Investments, LLC on January 16, 2020 for $5,394,000 ($490.36/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Chambers Hill Family Med Center and Select Physical Therapy.

Top 5 Retail Sales

#1 – 2449 E Market Street – Lowe’s – York Marketplace, York, PA 17402

The Blackstone Group L.P. sold the 125,353 SF Retail Freestanding (Community Center) Building built in 1955 (renovated in 2004) to Triple Crown Bar York Marketplace, LLC on November 3, 2020 for $13,916,926 ($111.02/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Lowe’s.

#2 – 2415 E Market Street – Giant Food – York Marketplace, York, PA 17402

The Blackstone Group L.P. sold the 74,541 SF Retail Supermarket (Community Center) Building built in 1994 to Triple Crown Bar York Marketplace, LLC on November 3, 2020 for $11,939,079 ($160.17/SF). At the time of sale, this property was 100% occupied by GIANT.

#3 – 2501-2555 East Market Street – York Marketplace, York, PA 17402

The Blackstone Group L.P. sold the 74,870 SF Retail Storefront (Community Center) Building built in 1994 to Triple Crown Bar York Marketplace, LLC on November 3, 2020 for $11,407,972 ($152.37/SF). At the time of sale, this property was 95.2% occupied by 13 tenants: Firehouse Subs; Gamestop; Kids First Swim School; Market Street Viet Thai Cafe; MyEyeDr.; Oreck; Pet Valu; PLCB Wine & Spirits Store; Red Lobster; Starbucks; Super Shoes; Verizon Wireless; VIP Nail & Spa.

#4 – 1360 Columbia Avenue – Stone Mill Plaza, Lancaster, PA 17603

Brixmor sold the 76,056 SF Retail Supermarket (Community Center) Building built in 1988 (renovated in 2007) to Tristate Ventures, LP on March 13, 2020 for $10,772,036 ($141.63/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 88.5% occupied by GIANT and Great Clips.

#5 – 1278 S Market Street – GIANT – Elizabethtown Shopping Center, Elizabethtown, PA 17022

Frist City Company sold the 65,146 SF Retail Supermarket (Neighborhood Center) Building built in 1982 to James Gibson on November 30, 2020 for $7,338,000 ($112.64/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Citizens Bank, GIANT Food Stores of Carlisle, and Starbucks.

Top 5 Industrial Sales

#1 – 3419 Ritner Highway – Ritner Logistics Center, Newville, PA 17241

Artemis Real Estate Partners sold the 1,215,240 SF Class A Distribution Building built in October 2019 to Exeter Property Group on October 1, 2020 for $85,000,000 ($69.95/SF). At the time of sale, the property was unoccupied.

#2 – 4875 Susquehanna Trail – ES3 LLC Bldg 1, York, PA 17406

C&S Wholesale Grocers, Inc sold the 790,000 SF Class B Distribution Building built in 2002 to Ahold Delhaize on February 11, 2020 for $75,665,684 ($95.78/SF) as a sale leaseback. At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by ES3 (also the seller).

#3 – 4875 Susquehanna Trail – ES3 LLC Tower 2, York, PA 17406

C&S Wholesale Grocers, Inc sold the 705,000 SF Class B Distribution Building built in September 2009 to Ahold Delhaize on February 11, 2020 for $64,234,316 ($91.11/SF) as a sale leaseback. At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by ES3 (also the seller).

#4 – 192 Kost Road – Silver Springs Distribution Center, Carlisle, PA 17015

Black Creek Group sold the 422,400 SF Class A Warehouse Building built in June 2016

to Prologis, Inc. on January 8, 2020 for $30,218,510 ($71.54/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Acme.

#5 – 100 Louis Parkway – Carlisle Distribution Center, Carlisle, PA 17015

Black Creek Group sold the 400,596 SF Class A Warehouse Building Built in 2006 to Prologis, Inc. on January 8, 2020 for $28,658,651 ($71.54/SF). At the time of sale, the property was 100% occupied by Overstock.

Top 5 Multifamily Sales

#1 – 2035 Patriot Street – The View at Mackenzi, York, PA 17408

Morgan Communities sold the 224 Unit, 242,323 SF Class B Apartments Building built in 2006 to Larken Associates on March 2, 2020 for $28,058,244 ($115.79/SF; $125,260/Unit). At the time of sale, units were 90.6% occupied.

#2 – 310 Honeysuckle Drive – The Villas of Castleton, Marietta, PA 17547

Keystone Custom Homes sold the 160 Unit, 339,612 SF Class A Apartments Building built in 2009 to Steinman Real Estate LLC on February 28, 2020 for $25,191,760 ($74.18/SF; $157,448/Unit). At the time of sale, units were 96% occupied.

#3 – Fox Run Road – Chesapeake Estates of Grantville, Grantville, PA 17028

David Sherrill sold the 663 Unit Class C Manufactured Housing/Mobile Home Park built in 1987 to RHP Properties on October 29, 2020 for $21,040,000 ($18,785.71/SF; $60,634/Unit).

#4 – 1 Chesapeake Estate – Chesapeake Estates of Thomasville, Thomasville, PA 17364

David Sherrill sold the 663 Unit Class C Manufactured Housing/Mobile Home Park built in 1986 to RHP Properties on October 29, 2020 for $19,800,000 ($19,800.00/SF; $62,658/Unit).

#5 – 200 South Court Street – Mulberry Station Apartments, Harrisburg, PA 17104

AION Partners sold the 100 Unit, 116,667 SF Class B Apartments Building built in 1987 (renovated in 2020) to Post Road Management on January 16, 2020 for $12,100,000 ($103.71/SF; $121,000/Unit). At the time of sale, the property was 100% leased.

In the coming months and years, it will be important to keep an eye on the top commercial real estate sales in the region. As office, retail, industrial, and multifamily real estate exchanges hands, the businesses who own this space, and their tenants stand to have a great impact on the local, and global economy moving forward.

Among all the top transactions that took place in 2020, which do you think will have the largest and most immediate impact on the Central PA region? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.

*Data of the top commercial real estate sales provided by CoStar.

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The Pandemic’s Uneven Effect on Consumer Spending

Posted on December 30, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Retail No Comments

When COVID-19 hit and the U.S. went into full lockdown, consumer spending took a sharp turn. Heading out to restaurants, bars, concerts, or the movies was no longer an option. Even now, nine months later, we are far from returning to how things were. The general public is wary or deterred by new policies like limited capacity, wearing face masks, and social distancing. This has all had a profound impact on how we’re spending our money, particularly on services or experiences. Instead, we’ve shifted our spending to physical goods to find other means of entertainment and enjoyment, and to make our homes more comfortable, because we’re spending considerably more time at home.

Considering all of this, plus the fact that 10+ million Americans are still jobless, the sluggish recovery of consumer spending on services is cause for concern. At the same time, retailers selling goods, especially online and through contact-free delivery, are in a position to grow their market share. Keep reading to learn how COVID-19 has had an uneven impact on spending, and what this might mean for our economy and commercial real estate long-term.

Spending Shifts from Services to Goods

Based on data from U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, spending on goods quickly recovered from the initial shock of the pandemic, returning to growth as early as June. But consumer spending on services is still more than 6 percent off pre-pandemic levels.

The reasoning behind these numbers is straightforward. As the pandemic severely limited people’s option to spend money on services such as dining out, traveling, and other leisurely activities, their spending shifted to physical goods because this was both more accessible and deemed the safer option for enjoyment and entertainment. People weren’t visiting public pools or taking vacations, so spending on items like swimming pools, bicycles, kayaks, etc. skyrocketed. For many retailers, these items were out of stock nearly all summer.

Furthermore, people began reallocating discretionary income formerly used for travel and entertainment to home improvements and renovations. We saw things like new appliances, cabinetry, and mattresses run out of stock while hotels, restaurants, casinos, and event venues sit vacant.

A Double-Edged Sword for Economic Recovery

While it’s certainly positive to see overall spending levels recover relatively quickly, the slow recovery of consumer spending on services is concerning for several reasons. First, the United States is a service economy, as the U.S. GDP reveals. In 2019, personal consumption expenditure on services accounted for 47 percent of the gross domestic product, making it by far the biggest contributor to the country’s economic output.

As the following chart shows, clothing and accessories stores experienced a 30 percent decline in sales compared to the same period of 2019. Similarly, food services and drinking places were hit with a 20 percent spending decline compared to last year’s total. Department stores and electronics experienced a 15 percent decline through three quarters of 2020.

At the other end of the spectrum, non-store retailers, building material and garden dealers, as well as grocery stores, have seen double-digit growth rates in the first nine months of 2020, as consumers shifted much of their spending online and outdoor activities boomed in face of the COVID-19 threat.

What This Means for Retail Locations

Some industries have found ways to safely reopen with limited capacity and new policies in place such as social distancing and mandating facemasks be worn. But even nine months after the start of the pandemic, things are far from “normal” and this includes bottom-line sales. Restaurants, bars, and hotels can only operate at 50% capacity or less which is a huge blow to the amount of business they can do in any given week or month. And shopping at retail locations is quickly being replaced by online shopping.

While some retailers have been able to accommodate customers online, many others, particularly small businesses and boutiques, were not equipped to make this shift. For businesses already on the brink of making ends meet, the pandemic was the straw, rather the wrecking ball, that broke the camel’s back. We see shopping centers with major vacancies and entire chains of corporate stores and restaurants bow out of business.

For commercial real estate, especially shopping centers and malls, the future is bleak. In contrast industrial real estate is rising in demand because of big online retailers needing to increase their storage and rapid distribution. People want their essentials (and even non-essentials) delivered quickly to their door-step. With businesses like Amazon offering free 2-day delivery for most items, ample and accessible storage facilities have never been more important.

And for consumers, the biggest takeaway from this major shift in spending is to be mindful and intentional about how and where you invest your resources. How we spend impacts the economy. Though you may hear phrases like “shop local” and think your individual spending is just a drop in the bucket, when all those drops are put together, it has a large impact. For those that don’t feel comfortable dining out, you can still support your local restaurants through takeout or delivery. And if you don’t desire shopping in-store, consider supporting small businesses through curbside pick-up or having items shipped to your home. Our collective spending habits today, even amidst a pandemic, are painting the picture of our economy well into the future.

Even after the impact of COVID-19 on the economy begins to correct itself, what do you think the impact on consumer spending will be long-term? Comments are welcome below!

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COVID-19 Shines Spotlight on Value of E-Commerce and Industrial Real Estate

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog No Comments

As we approach the holiday season, and with holiday shopping already in full swing, it’s become a glaring truth that COVID-19 has divided retail companies into two distinct groups: those with functioning e-commerce businesses, and those without.

During the first 10 days of the holiday shopping season, U.S. consumers spent $21.7 billion online, a 21% year-over-year jump, according to Adobe Analytics. This likely stems from the fact that 63% of consumers are avoiding stores and buying more online, with health concerns due to the pandemic driving that decision for 81% of shoppers. Furthermore, U.S. consumers are poised to spend $198.73 billion with online retailers this holiday season. That would be a 43.3% year-over-year jump from $138.65 billion for the same November-December period in 2019.

What this means for businesses hoping to get in on some of these holiday shopping dollars is that they need to have an easy and efficient way for consumers to buy their products online and have them quickly delivered to their doorstep. For many businesses that don’t already have this infrastructure in place, they could sustain a huge blow this holiday season that may be too much to recover from. In contrast, businesses like Amazon and Walmart who are leading the charge in e-commerce are set to have a banner year when it comes to online holiday shopping.

Central PA Region Boasts Strong Market for Industrial Real Estate

In order to support a thriving e-commerce business, it requires ample and functional industrial real estate space to store and distribute massive amounts of inventory. Right here in Central Pennsylvania, Amazon and Walmart remain the most active industrial real estate leasees for Q3 2020. And it makes sense as to why. Amazon is by far the leader of the pack with nearly 13 million square feet of industrial space in this market alone. Coming in second is Walmart with 3 million square feet, and all other players in the field far behind that. This shows just how much of an e-commerce monster Amazon really is and how well prepared they are to take full advantage of this holiday season’s online retail.

And it’s no coincidence that the leading e-commerce businesses have chosen to take stock in the Central Pennsylvania region. The I-81 corridor is widely recognized as a hot spot for industrial real estate, warehousing, and distribution. With easy access to all the major markets and highways, it’s obvious why the Lehigh Valley ranks #7 and Harrisburg ranks #18 on the national list of net absorption as share of inventory. Additionally, Lehigh Valley’s rent growth came in at 4.9% year-over-year, making it among the top 20 cities in the nation.

Industrial Real Estate Trends and Tracking

When we look at the largest industrial leases in Pennsylvania, we can quickly identify the strength of the Central Pennsylvania region and the I-80 Corridor, much of which is occupied by e-commerce businesses.

What’s also interesting to see when mapped out is how the most concentrated industrial real estate markets tend to follow the major roadways, which is what fuels manufacturing, warehousing, and distribution. Quick and convenient access to these roadways is essential for e-commerce businesses who need to deliver product to customers quickly and efficiently.

And with one more graph, we can appreciate the peaks and valleys of constantly shifting vacancies in industrial real estate throughout the Central PA region, the most volatile being Lebanon and most steady being York.

Major Takeaways

The longer the pandemic drags on, the more likely that consumers stick to their new habits. Companies are racing to adapt. The stakes are high, especially for small businesses that were slow to embrace the e-commerce trend and are now desperately trying to catch up. Previously, many retailers might have said e-commerce is a relatively small part of the overall business, maybe 10%. Now that’s grown dramatically to 30% or 40% plus for many retailers and heading into the holiday season with most likely record-setting online sales, businesses who relied on foot-traffic are not likely to rise with the tide.

Even e-commerce giants can’t afford a misstep. This is a pivotal year for all retail and industrial businesses wh rely on manufacturing, storage, and distribution of product to bolster sales. Those who were not prepared for the major shift to online shopping this holiday season will feel it in their bottom line. For those who have not already adapted, the best time is and will always be ‘now.’

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This Election Day will impact everything – including real estate

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Another reminder about the importance of the 2020 Presidential Election? Yes, but with good reason. We’ve been inundated with news, ads, and messages forcing very carefully crafted information upon us. There’s a lot we know about each candidate and their platform, but there is much more than we don’t know. This applies to all candidates and political parties. Tomorrow, the nation will vote for the candidate who represents the values and policies that best align with our own. However, I doubt anyone will say they agree 100% with any, one candidate. So instead, we’ll vote based upon the criteria that are most important to our own views. And if this happens to include the creation of new taxes, particularly on real estate, then there is something very important to consider.

Should Joe Biden become the next President of the United States, his plan includes a new probate real estate tax hidden in his platform that could cause a massive hit on capital gains.

Taxing Appreciation

As proposed by Biden, his new probate real estate tax would end the process of real estate heirs taking probated property on a stepped-up basis and instead require them to pay capital gains taxes on all appreciation that accrued on the property before their inheritance. This would put heirs on the hook for paying capital gains taxes on the appreciation of a property, plus any other profits earned above the current market value once the heir sells the asset.

Existing law is much more favorable to those who inherit real estate. For example, if someone purchased a property when it was valued at $100,000 and died when it had reached a fair market value of $1M, the owner’s heirs would inherit the property at a stepped-up basis of $1M. As a result, heirs under current law do not have to pay capital gains on the $900,000 in appreciation that accrued before the original owner’s death, and if they were to sell the property down the road, they would only pay capital gains taxes on any value above $1M.

Biden’s proposed tax changes as a whole would essentially add a fourth tax bracket to the capital gains schedule of 39.6% on income above $1M, meaning the top rate could reach 43.4% when we include the 3.8% net investment income tax.

How This Affects You!

When your parents pass and leave you the family house normally you inherit that property at what it is worth today. If you would sell that house, you would only pay taxes on what it is worth today and what it sells for. If Biden does away with the stepped-up basis you will inherit the property for what your parents paid for the property. If you decide to sell you will pay taxes on the difference between the original purchase price and what it sells for today.

In addition, a Biden presidency would greatly harm multigenerational ranches and farms by killing the next generation with taxes. Simply put, this election stands to drastically change the transfer of generational wealth as we know it.

It’s Not a Done Deal

First, nothing is known until after November 3 and the election results are tallied. Should Biden win, the change is far from a done deal as his plan could change or be voted down by the legislative branch.

Then there are some unknowns in Biden’s proposal, and how those are worked out could make the tax changes less of a blow, or even worse. For one, it’s unclear if death itself becomes a “taxable event” that forces heirs to pay capital gains taxes on all appreciated value at the time of their inheritance. It’s also possible the Biden plan may allow heirs to inherit real estate on a carry-over basis, so they only have to pay for the years of appreciation when they sell the asset, not at the time of inheritance. Another option is that heirs could spread their taxes out over time.

What is known is that if you care about these changes, and stand to be negatively impacted by them, casting a vote is the best way to voice your opinion on the matter. This is not to say any other candidate does not also plan to change other aspects of the tax structure, which will have a negative impact on at least one sector of the population. This is all the more reason to do your research before taking to your polling location.

The Big Takeaway

Regardless of candidate or political affiliation, the thing that matters most is that you cast a vote, and you do so being as well informed as possible. If you have chosen to vote in person, you still have ample time to do your own research and look for reliable sources. And when you do vote, consider what is most important to you and the candidate most likely to uphold this viewpoint when in office.

No matter the outcome – November 3, 2020 will be a historic day for the world!

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COVID-19 Prompts Manufacturing Companies to Make Long-Term Changes

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Trends No Comments

According to a new study, more than 90% of companies expect the disruption of global supply chains caused by the pandemic to have long-term effects on their businesses. This has caused manufacturers to closely examine various aspects of their businesses and consider what may need to change, possibly permanently, to adjust to the new COVID-19 reality we are living in.

Furthermore, businesses have begun to realize the importance of continuously monitoring their suppliers, especially those overseas, for risks and disruptions as they try to accommodate many personnel issues, supply chain disruptions, and uncertainty in general.

Keep reading to learn what this new survey and other news sources are reporting about the change to manufacturing and supply chain businesses as the result of the pandemic, and how these changes stand to impact the commercial real estate market.

Widespread Impact in a Variety of Areas

Respondents to the survey estimated that on average about 43% of their entire supply chain suffered some kind of interruption. For the majority of respondents, this was due to fluctuation in supplier pricing and safety restrictions causing orders to be paused or slow to fill. The next most common interruption was the need to find suppliers in other geographic regions due to import/export restrictions, followed by the challenge of suppliers going bankrupt. Many manufacturing businesses didn’t experience just one of these interruptions, but a combination of several which made for an exceptionally chaotic time when COVID-19 first hit. Now that the world has gone on to accept where we are the new reality, at least for the foreseeable future, manufacturing and supply chain industries are shifting from short-term considerations to long-term changes that will make them more stable in the future to sustain a global event in the future.

What this means for commercial real estate: As businesses are reacting to the widespread impact of COVID-19 on manufacturing and supply chain operations, there is a valuable opportunity for commercial real estate owners and investors here in the United States to position their properties as solutions for addressing these changing needs. Businesses may need more space, or a different configuration of space to accommodate their new systems and processes. The more flexible CRE professionals can be with their space, the more they will be able to attract new tenants and even expand their portfolio.

Shift to Reshoring and Nearshoring

In an effort to learn from what this pandemic has already taught us, manufacturing businesses have shifted their focus toward solutions that stand to reduce risk and protect against future shocks as of the likes of COVID-19. Many businesses are taking steps toward retooling their supply chain, and one major shift in mindset is reshoring or nearshoring manufacturing that was once offshore. Reshoring is the process of bringing back overseas supply chain operations to the country of origin and nearshoring is the process of bringing supply vendors closer to the point of origin, from farther overseas destinations. Reshoring and nearshoring an operation’s most vital materials reduces the risk of being held hostage by offshore suppliers.

In that same survey, 97% of respondents said they agree that better visibility into their suppliers is imperative. When various components of a business are broken up and distributed all across the globe, it can be nearly impossible to keep your thumb on all aspects of operations and it can make it harder for these points of operations to communicate effectively with one another. Now more than ever, businesses are seeing the value of keeping their operations within the same country, if and when it’s possible.

What this means for commercial real estate: For commercial real estate owners and investors, this means the demand for industrial space is going to rise. As businesses look to retool their supply chain and bring components back to the United States, they will inevitably seek more warehousing and manufacturing space to accommodate their growing needs.

The Smartest Businesses Are Acting Now

In such a challenging environment, the most forward-thinking businesses are not wasting time addressing vulnerabilities in their supply chains. Many respondents (98%) are planning to take some kind of action to build resilience against future disruptions – and the top courses of action are identifying and employing alternative suppliers, continuous monitoring, and increasing reshoring capabilities. Additionally, diversifying or localizing supply chains are a way to reduce costs, as well as better prepare for future economic disturbances.

What this means for commercial real estate: Now is the time to position your CRE assets as solutions for manufacturing and supply chain businesses. If your space is a fit for such needs, you should market it as such. Be direct in the unique benefits your space can provide a business. For industrial businesses, this means a large and functional space located conveniently for transportation. The Central Pennsylvania region is accessible to major cities and transportation hubs on the East Coast. Commercial real estate space along the I-81 and I-83 corridors will benefit from any beefing up of supply chains and logistics in this area.

With the impact of COVID-19 causing many manufacturing businesses’ to change how and where they make, store, and transport goods, the silver lining is that the Central Pennsylvania is likely to experience an increase in demand for industrial and manufacturing space. This will in turn drive new construction, bring more jobs to the area, and strengthen the overall economy. This is not to overlook the many significant challenges the pandemic has caused to all industries, but it’s at least one path that is headed in the right direction, particularly for industrial real estate in Central PA.

Do you have a question or idea related to manufacturing, commercial real estate, and COVID-19? Join the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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