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How Opportunity Zones Could Impact Central PA Real Estate

Posted on December 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Opportunity Zones are being referred to as “real estate’s most exciting new investment vehicle,” but what are they and can they really live up to this title?

How this type of investment works and why it stands to be so beneficial is essentially this: capital gains are invested in Opportunity Zones, taxes are deferred, the basis is lowered, taxes are then paid in 2026 (at the same nominal value as in 2018), and after 2028 the Opportunity Zone holding can be sold with no capital gains tax due.

Better yet, there are very few restrictions on the properties in which one can invest. It’s estimated that there are $2.3 trillion worth of unrealized capital gains in the U.S. Even if only 15 percent of this is invested in Opportunity Zones, this will exceed the 2017 corporate income tax revenue and almost match the Medicaid spend of that same year.

The potential benefits don’t stop there. Opportunity Zones can also provide a tax deferral on gain that investors invest in a fund, and the elimination of gain in the new Opportunity Zone investment if it is held for more than 10 years.

This should paint a clearer picture as to why Opportunity Zones have real estate investors abuzz. To answer the most essential questions related to Opportunity Zones, and specifically how they stand to impact Central Pennsylvania real estate, Omni Realty has asked Silas Chamberlin to share his expertise and insight on this topic.

Silas Chamberlin, PhD is the Vice President, Economic & Community Development at York County Economic Alliance. Prior to joining YCEA in fall of 2018, he served as CEO of Downtown Inc. Chamberlin has also served as executive director of the Schuylkill River National Heritage Area, an organization promoting economic revitalization in five counties of southeastern Pennsylvania. And he has held leadership positions in the non-profit sector and state government. Throughout his career, Chamberlin has focused on helping communities leverage their unique assets to create opportunities for economic development and a higher-quality of life.

Mike Kushner of Omni Realty and Silas Chamberlin jump right to the meat of things starting with the local impact of Opportunity Zones, using the Greater York Area as a sampling.

Omni: How many census tracts in York County were approved for the Opportunity Zone program? And where?

Silas Chamberlin: York County has five designated tracts. All tracts are located in the City of York and are the tracts which encompass most of the city’s brownfield sites. Tracts in Hanover and Wrightsville were eligible for designation, but were not selected by the state.

Omni: Specifically, how will this program benefit the Greater York Area and how soon do you expect to see an initial impact?

SC: Opportunity Zones will attract additional investment to qualified projects in our five opportunity zones. The tax break should help draw investors’ attention to projects that have not benefited from private investment in the past. YCEA is a working partner to help identify viable projects within the zones to market to Qualified Opportunity Fund investors. We are also vetting the creation of local and regional funds focused on the city’s zones.

In theory, we could see funds begin investing in qualified projects at any time. Opportunity Zones are intentionally driven by the free market and individual investment decisions, so it is difficult to tell how much investment will end up in York. Observers at the national level have noted that there may be more private capital available than viable projects, so York should certainly position itself to take full advantage.

Omni: Are the tax breaks provided through this program enough to incentivize private investors and spur activity?

SC: The short answer is yes. But it would be inaccurate to view Opportunity Zones as a panacea that will turn vacant buildings into viable investment opportunities overnight. The most competitive projects will be those that are already viable without Opportunity Zone funds, but would benefit from additional investment.

Unlike New Markets Tax Credits or other popular programs, Opportunity Fund investments are unlikely to subsidize a project because the project must be able to grow in value and return an investment to the fund. YCEA’s strategy is to identify viable projects within Opportunity Zones and then use the designation to attract investors’ attention. We see this as yet another tool in our economic development financing toolbox.

Omni: Are there any drawbacks to the Opportunity Zone program?

SC: Opportunity Zones rely on a self-certification process for creating a fund, which means that investors have lots of autonomy. This also means that economic development organizations and municipalities may not always be aware of investments being made in their zones. Because the zones are distressed areas by definition, there is a higher risk that outside investment could change neighborhoods and business districts without any local engagement or controls. There are potential controls that could help guide development in Opportunity Zones—such as zoning overlays—but these tools are not yet well developed, especially in smaller cities.

Finally, there is the risk for disappointment. Opportunity Zones absolutely provide another tool to attract investment, but there is a risk in promoting them as transformational and raising the hopes of residents and developers that untapped capital will begin flowing into the census tracts that need it the most. While there is reason to be hopeful, the reality of matching qualified investors to viable projects may narrow the scope and impact of the tax break.

The Bottom Line

Experts predict that after an initial wave of Opportunity Zone fund offerings in early 2019, there may be a pause that coincides with the issuance of additional regulations during which market participants will evaluate fund and project structures. After that, barring the rise of general economic headwinds, it should be full steam ahead for Opportunity Zone funds moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, Opportunity Zone projects need to be viewed as development projects because the requirement is to create new property or substantially improve property. To reemphasize Silas Chamberlin’s point, there is surely reason to be hopeful that Opportunity Zones will flow capital into census tracts that need it the most. But we must remain cautiously optimistic about how quickly and substantially this capital will come about. Much like anything related to real estate, and especially real estate investment, most outcomes remain at the mercy of the market and ever-changing government regulations.

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In the Wake of the Failed Merger, 6 Ways PinnacleHealth and Hershey Medical Center Can Harness New Growth

Posted on November 3, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Healthcare, Local Market No Comments

As shared by the Central Penn Business Journal, the Hershey-Pinnacle merger was recently opposed by the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) and the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s Office. The reason for this decision was explained as the Dauphin County-based hospitals are direct competitors, and that their union would eliminate competition in the Harrisburg region. For Harrisburg area residents and employers, a reduction in (or elimination of) competition may result in lower quality and higher cost health care.

While this ruling is a huge blow to what PinnacleHealth and Hershey Medical Center surely felt was a smart business move, it’s not likely stop the two entities’ from pursing alternative business growth opportunities.

The ACA has made the healthcare environment a market share game. So health systems are pursuing volume drivers for their systems, which means putting primary care and urgent care clinics in strategic locations. Among the popular pathways to growth for hospitals and health systems, we expect to see Pinnacle Health and Hershey Medical Center employ some or all of the following opportunities in the near future.

Increase in ambulatory care facilities (i.e. freestanding urgent care, outpatient surgery and imaging centers and emergency care centers). Out-patient centers are an important and cost-effective alternative to higher cost inpatient-focused acute strategies. A health system can greatly increase the number of patients it can see and treat in a day through the operation of freestanding urgent care locations. This follows the trend of the new hub and spoke healthcare delivery model where the hub of a single network branches out into various locations to increase accessibility and efficiency.
Recruitment or acquisition of medical groups that are in-market, but not fully aligned with the hospital. As healthcare reform continues, the number of insured patients seeking access to care will also increase. Therefore, it’s important for a health system to have the added capacity to monetize this growth. Additionally, patients often choose to follow their physicians regardless of hospital affiliation, meaning those with the most aligned physicians will grow the most.
Clinical program development and service expansions or extensions. Health systems that actively seek opportunities to expand the scope of services they provide, such as adding new procedures, diagnostic categories, or subspecialties into their portfolio, are well positioned for growth. The complexity of healthcare and health insurance incentivizes patients to seek all of their care from a single organization, when possible. The more services a health system provides, the less likely a patient will seek care from a competing network.
Geographic market expansion to establish additional locations of care. More and more, healthcare is beginning to look and act like typical retail marketplaces. One example is a preference for convenient venues and access locations. Health systems that extend their reach geographically can raise their growth trajectory. Most importantly, each location should consider its targeted populations so that the services provided meet the most common demands of that specific area.
Merger or acquisition of another hospital or health system (including assets, “book-of-business,” and affiliated provider network). Establishing new locations through merger or acquisition is a fast track to growth. While the Hershey-Pinnacle merger was shot down, it’s not unlikely that they will seek out other possible mergers that do not conflict in the same way. Let’s face it, mergers provide a lot of benefits, including access to efficiencies through combining resources, and the opportunity to grow market position in key centers of excellence, institutes or hallmark clinical programs.
Joint ventures. When market entry or start-up costs pose challenges, joint ventures remain a viable pathway to growth. While the legal nuances are about as complex as a merger or acquisition, with careful evaluation, the benefits can outweigh the effort. One of the biggest advantages of a joint venture is that it creates shared obligation among the parties involved so that everyone is working toward its sustainability and success.

Some Final Thoughts

Due to the changes imposed by the ACA, healthcare is moving toward a new kind of hub-and-spoke model where the focus is for more care to be delivered in the outpatient setting where costs can be reduced, access can be increased and preventative and post-acute care can be administered in a more efficient manner.

While other health systems have successfully teamed up to expand their reach, such as Penn Medicine and Lancaster General Health; Johns Hopkins Children’s Center and WellSpan Health; and Holy Spirit and Geisinger Health System, these partnerships cover entirely separate markets, unlike the proposed merger between PinnacleHealth and Hershey. If there’s anything that can be learned from the failed merger, it’s that an emphasis needs to be placed on better defining geographic markets to avoid the perception of conflict in the future.

What are your thoughts on the failed Hershey-Pinnacle merger and how this will impact their growth strategy for the future? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment!

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Central PA Welcomes More Office Space, Rising Rental Rates

Posted on April 11, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Overall, 2015 has proven to be an active and eventful year for Central PA office real estate. Six new buildings were delivered into the market with four more under construction. The vacancy rate rose slightly, but remains lower than it has been in recent years. Additionally, net absorption dropped by nearly 175,000 square-feet, though it still remains in the black.

How has this activity impacted the market? And how do we anticipate it will reflect on the local economy? Let’s first take a look at the numbers to help guide our predictions for the market’s performance in 2016 and beyond.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

Six of the top 15 Select Year-to-Date Deliveries are within the Central PA submarket. Looking at just those that were delivered specifically in fourth quarter 2015, there are two worth noting. Coming in at number three on the CoStar list is the office building at 1250 Camp Hill Bypass. This building has an RBA of 82,000 square-feet and is 100% occupied. It broke ground in fourth quarter 2014 and was delivered one year later. Next is the Cornwall Health Center coming in at number five on the list. Located at 1701 Cornwall Road in Lebanon, this building has an RBA of 54,234 square-feet and is 100% occupied. This multi-million dollar project is estimated to bring a burst of new jobs to the area.

Vacancy:

This quarter, we saw the vacancy rate rise ever so slightly from 7.5% to 7.7%. This returns the market closer to where it began the year, but is still lower than where we were one year ago at this time when the vacancy rate was 8.0%. Still, the overall trend is a decrease in vacancy rates. Comparatively to 2013 and prior, the vacancy rates were consistently at 8.0% or greater.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption took a major hit this quarter, dropping from 189,032 square-feet in Q3 to 15,921 square-feet in Q4. This is the lowest the absorption rate has been since one year ago at this time when it was negative 90,015. Overall, absorption rates in the Central PA office submarket have been volatile and hard to predict, often increasing or decreasing by more than 100,000 square-feet each quarter and dipping into the red a total of five times since Q1 2013.

Image from CoStar

Rental Rates:

The quoted rental rates increased ever so slightly this quarter by $0.07 to $17.22. This continues a steady climb in rates that began at the start of 2013. Since that time, they have increased by a total of $1.11. This is also the highest rental rate we have seen in the Central PA submarket since prior to Q1 2012.

Image from CoStar

Our Summary/Analysis:

Looking to the future, we can expect even more square footage to be added to the local market in 2016 as four buildings, currently under construction, will be delivered between the first and third quarters. Combined, these new buildings will contribute 277,590 square-feet of office space. This will have an impact on nearly all aspects of the market including net absorption, existing inventory, delivered inventory and vacant square-footage.

As for the health and strength of the Central PA submarket, the seemingly ever-increasing rental rate is a sign that businesses are demanding more space and willing to pay for it. And with the majority of year-to-date deliveries and under-construction projects nearly fully occupied, new office space continues to be in-demand.

What fourth quarter 2015 market trend do you find most interesting or impactful? Share your insights by commenting below!

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How Will New Office Space Construction in Central PA Impact the Market?

Posted on November 18, 2015 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

business, building, paperwork and people concept - happy builder in hardhat with clipboard and pencil over group of builders at construction site

Photo Credit: Dollar Photo Club

2015 has brought a boost in office space construction to Central Pennsylvania and there is even more space to come! While this may be exciting news for businesses looking to expand into the local market, we need to watch this trend closely and cautiously because the potential impact may not be so favorable for landlords and sellers of commercial office space.

The good news is we have four projects under construction that will deliver more than 400,000 square-feet to the market within the coming year, with a majority of this space already preleased. However, this promising news for the market is tempered by the fact that many tenants will vacate other office space nearby to occupy these newly constructed office buildings.

Once delivered, this square footage will most certainly impact net absorption and vacancy rates in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. What can we do to prepare and attempt to reduce any negative impact? Let’s first take a look at what’s going on in the market and then analyze what will likely result from these trends.

Third Quarter 2015: Select Top Under Construction Properties

Currently four different commercial office properties are under construction in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Cornwall Health Center, located in Harrisburg Area East, broke ground in fourth quarter 2014 and is scheduled to be delivered in fourth quarter 2015. It has an RBA of 54,234 square-feet and is 100% preleased. The TecPort Business Campus – Building A broke ground this quarter and is scheduled to be delivered in third quarter 2016. It has an RBA of 7,590 square-feet. It is not preleased and its quoted rental rate is listed as negotiable.

Additionally, a Class A office space project is under construction at the intersection of Carlisle Pike and Hogestown Road. The two buildings that make up this project have a combined 259,000 square-feet of space are expected to be completed in spring 2016. Finally, there is Class B office space at 1250 Camp Hill Bypass that is under construction. Its 82,000 square-feet of space is 100% preleased.

Third Quarter 2015 Rental Rates & Vacancy

This quarter, rental rates rose to $17.14 per square-foot. This is the highest rate we have seen since prior to 2011. The vacancy rate decreased from 7.8% to 7.5%. The vacant square-footage also decreased from 4,120,331 square-feet to 3,962,599 square-feet.

Third Quarter 2015 Absorption and Demand

The total RBA in Q3 2015 increased to 52,581,663 square-feet. Net absorption also experienced a substantial increase, more than tripling last quarter’s 50,466 square-feet to the 190,232 square-feet that closed out third quarter 2015. But take note, both net absorption and vacancy rates will soon be greatly impacted by the 400,000+ square-feet that will be delivered to the market in the next year!

Future Trends and Their Impact

New construction certainly has its benefits, and for the time being, the Central Pennsylvania office submarket is receiving a positive boost from the activity. But as this new square-footage is delivered in the next 12 months, causing businesses to vacate other space within the region, we can expect to see some new trends emerge.

Let’s take a look at a highlight of predictions we expect to see in the coming quarters:

Inconsistent Net Absorption: The only real pattern in net absorption of office space over the last 15 quarters has been inconsistency. Year-to-date for 2015 we are at 630,738 square-feet; 2014 totaled negative 311,827 square-feet; 2013 was 909,658 square-feet; and 2012 was negative 226,424 square-feet.
Increased Vacancy Rate: The addition of 340,000 square-feet of new construction in the Harrisburg West market that is being occupied by Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Deloitte will result in an increased vacancy rate in 2016 due to the occupants relocating from existing space. In addition, the Walgreens- Rite Aid merger will contribute to the market’s increased vacant space as the two companies integrate corporate back-office functions.
Decreased Employee Square-Footage: Square-feet per employee have been in a long term decline and will continue on this trend. E-commerce, telecommuting, and the desire for open and collaborative work spaces are squeezing the office space sector given that square footage per office employee is diminishing.
Increased Demand for Medical Office Space: The one bright spot in the office market segment is the increasing demand for medical office space. Orthopedic Associates of Lancaster is constructing a 73,529 square foot facility in North Cornwall Township. Good Samaritan Hospital is opening a new 22,000 square foot center at 840 Tuck Street in Lebanon. And Pinnacle Health is opening an 80,000 square foot Advanced Care Center in a former retail shopping center located at 1251 East Main Street in Annville.

These predictions are not going to be music to the ears of landlords and sellers, but this market provides some prime opportunities for new and growing businesses to expand within Central Pennsylvania. Increasing vacancy rates and inconsistent net absorption creates a competitive market in which the buyer or renter has the upper-hand. So businesses take note. If you were thinking of moving to or expanding within Central Pennsylvania, 2016 is the prime time to do so!

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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The Vision Behind Omni Realty Group – Q&A with Owner, Mike Kushner

Posted on May 15, 2015 by mike.kushner in About Us, Blog No Comments

Mike Kushner, owner of Omni Realty Group

Every business first begins with a person and a vision and Omni Realty Group is no exception to this rule. Mike Kushner, owner of Omni, began this commercial real estate business with a passion for helping fellow business owners find the ideal locations to grow successfully.

We have shared the story behind Omni Realty, but we haven’t yet fully shared Mike’s background and story. To understand the inspiration that fuels Omni day in and day out, you must first get to know Mike. Let’s take a look at a fun and personal Q&A with the owner of Omni who gave the business its vision and purpose.

Q: As a child, what did you think you wanted to be when you grew up and how has this tied into your career in commercial real estate?

Mike: I don’t think you can lay out a path in life to get exactly where you want to go. A lot of it happens by accident or circumstance. I was always entrepreneurial as a child, starting with a paper route, raking leaves and shoveling snow for neighbors. In my early teen years, my older brother had a landscape business and I worked for him. It was hard work, and along with my parents, this instilled in me a strong work ethic. Each of these early work experiences taught me to do every job, no matter how small or menial, to the best of my ability which is something I absolutely carry with me in my commercial real estate business.

Q: Did you have a mentor or someone who inspired you to pursue commercial real estate?

Mike: My older brother was an early pioneer in the redevelopment of Midtown Harrisburg (Pennsylvania). He was rehabbing properties in the city in the early 1980’s when the area was best known for crime, drugs and prostitution. It was his vision, entrepreneurial spirit and work ethic that inspired my interest in commercial real estate.

Q: What have been some of the highlights throughout your career in commercial real estate?

Mike: Looking at just the numbers, I have been directly responsible for the successful repositioning and redevelopment of over 500 apartment units and 8 million square feet of retail, office, industrial, and residential product in Central Pennsylvania. I have also consummated lease and sales transactions in excess of $100 million. While these are certainly “highlights,” I would say the most rewarding parts of my career have come from the repositioning and redevelopment of functionally obsolete and distressed real estate. It is amazing the impact a revival of a certain part of a city can have on the whole community. I enjoy helping people and real estate is my means of doing this.

Q: Is there a special meaning behind the word “Omni” or a reason why you chose this for your business name?

Mike: Wikipedia defines Omni as a Latin prefix meaning “all” or “every.” When I was considering various names for my company the Omni moniker defined my commitment to represent “ALL” tenants and buyers in finding solutions to meet their real estate needs.

Q: Besides commercial real estate, what are some other passions and interests you have?

Mike: For me, it’s all about keeping things in perspective and focusing on maintaining a true work-life balance. Zig Zigler once said, “I believe that being successful means having a balance of success stories across the many areas of your life.” You can’t truly be considered successful in your business life if your home life is in shambles.

I try to order my life – God, Family, Work. I serve on the Board of Trustees at the Janus School. The school’s mission is to help individuals with learning differences access their potential by providing excellence in education, research and community outreach. I also serve on the Board of Sierra Leone Missions and Development – an organization dedicated to bring hope, help and healing to the people of Sierra Leone.

Q: What quote or saying inspires you?

Mike: “Luck is when preparation meets opportunity.” I love this outlook because simply waiting for the right opportunity to present itself is not enough. You must also constantly work to prepare yourself to seize this opportunity to the best of your ability.

What other questions for you have for Omni Realty Group’s owner, Mike Kushner? Share your thoughts by commenting below and Mike will personally answer you!

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Commercial Real Estate Predictions for 2015: Central Pennsylvania and National

Posted on December 19, 2014 by mike.kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

With the end of the year upon us, we can finally take a complete look at how the commercial real estate market has performed throughout 2014. However, 2015 holds an endless array of unknowns. How will the market perform? What other factors can we expect to impact commercial real estate? How will this differ nationally to locally?

These questions do not yet have answers, but we can offer our best predictions for what we can expect to happen within the commercial real estate market for 2015. Let’s take a look at where the current trends are likely to lead us in the coming months for both nationally and locally within Central Pennsylvania.

National Market Predictions:

Multi-Family: The rent market is predicted to remain in the landlords’ favor in 2015. Vacancy rates are expected to stay below 5 percent which will likely lead to an increase in rental rates, well above inflation. Apartment rents were projected to increase 4 percent in 2014 and are again expected to increase by 4.1 percent in 2015.

Office: Vacancy rates are predicted to fall from 15.7 percent to 15.6 percent in 2015, with rents expected to rise by 3.3 percent.

Retail: Experts predict that vacancy rates nationwide will drop from their current 9.7 percent to 9.5 percent in 2015 with average retail rents increasing by 2.5 percent.

Industrial market: Industrial real estate vacancies are expected to rise from 8 percent to 8.4 percent next year, while annual rents will continue to rise by another 2.9 percent.

Central Pennsylvania Market Predictions:

Multi-Family: The multifamily investment sales market will see continued appetite for apartment properties. Rents will increase to more than $1.25 per square foot and the market will continue to absorb new units as they get delivered. Overall, 2015 will be a good year for multi-family real estate.

Office: Market fundamentals continue to trend in a positive direction. The combination of measured new construction, tenant expansion and lessening office contractions will continue to contribute to restoring health to the Central Pennsylvania market. We expect asking rents to continue to stabilize and rise modestly in 2015. On the office investment side, we anticipate medical office space will continue to receive the most investor attention.

Retail: The retail sector will continue to see retailers moving into smaller spaces as they balance brick-and-mortar locations with online shopping. We also predict continued growth of fast-casual restaurants and an expansion of fast-fashion and discount retailers. Owners of power centers and grocery-anchored retail properties will rethink how they use space to fill vacancies in 2015 and beyond.

Industrial: Three main themes are emerging in the industrial sector that will follow into 2015: Rents will continue to climb; tenants will begin shifting to leasing light industrial, or smaller industrial properties in the 50,000 to 250,000-square-foot range; and companies leasing industrial space and landlords developing these properties will increasingly begin to provide more on-site amenities to employees. Development of mega distribution facilities will be limited by the availability of suitable locations.

These predictions for the New Year are what you might expect when looking at the current trends in commercial real estate. It’s important to think ahead as to how they might impact your business or the community in which you live. While some sectors are expected to contract, others show signs of promising growth. In addition to the future of the commercial real estate market, the success of 2015 still lies in our own hands. Best wishes for your best year yet – from your friends at Omni Realty Group!

Share your own predictions for the commercial real estate market in 2015 by commenting below!

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York and Lancaster Lead Central PA Retail Real Estate Market in 2014

Posted on November 24, 2014 by mike.kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

The Central Pennsylvania retail market as a whole did not experience much change in market conditions in the third quarter 2014. The vacancy rate stayed constant ending at 5.8% in the previous quarter and 5.9% in the current quarter. Net absorption was negative 26,668 square feet. Quoted rental rates decreased from second quarter 2014 levels, ending at $11.23 per square foot per year. A total of one retail building with 9,184 square feet of retail space was delivered to the market in the quarter, with 47,586 square feet still under construction at the end of the quarter.

Amidst this stagnant state of growth for Central Pennsylvania retail real estate, two submarkets within this submarket cluster have shown signs of growth over the past year. York and Lancaster have experienced the largest declines in vacancy (compared to other Central PA submarkets) since January 1, 2014. These markets have also experienced the largest absorption of all submarkets during that same time frame.

To better understand exactly what changes have been taking place recently in York and Lancaster, let’s take a look at the highlights.

Deliveries and Under Construction Properties:

Lancaster delivered the Brighton Village Shoppes – Phase II in first quarter 2014. This project included an RBA of 21,000 square feet and was 92% occupied upon completion. It ranked as fourth of the top five year-to-date-deliveries, based on square footage, for the entire Philadelphia retail market.

Aside from completed projects, York and Lancaster also led the way for the Central Pennsylvania submarket in top under construction properties based on project square footage. At 16300 Mount Airy Road in York, a 30,000 square foot facility that is 45 percent preleased is expected to be completed before the year’s end. On Lititz Pike in Lancaster, a 10,820 square foot facility is also expected to be delivered in fourth quarter 2014.

Vacancy Rate:

From fourth quarter 2013 to third quarter 2014, Lancaster’s vacancy rate has decreased from 4.5% to 4.0%. This is the lowest vacancy rate in the Central Pennsylvania submarket cluster currently. While not the lowest vacancy rate, York saw a substantial decrease between fourth quarter 2013 and third quarter 2014 from 7.9% to 6.6%. This was the largest decrease experienced by any submarket.

Quoted Rental Rate:

Both Lancaster and York’s quoted rental rates have decreased since one year ago at this time. Lancaster started at $12.14 in fourth quarter 2013 and is now at $12.14 in third quarter 2014. York went from $11.24 to $10.89 in that same period of time. Lancaster has the highest quoted rental rate in the submarket, while York is only behind Harrisburg East and West ($11.30 and $11.74, respectively) coming in fourth highest.

YTD Absorption:

One area in which Lancaster and York won the contest hands-down was in year-to-date net absorption. Through three quarters of 2014, Lancaster ended with 108,168 square feet and York surpassed that with 247,541 square feet. The closest runner up was Harrisburg East with 36,431 square feet and the furthest behind was Harrisburg West with negative 53,107 square feet absorbed.

What this means for the market:

Although the York and Lancaster submarkets have experienced lower vacancy rates and strong absorption, retail overall has been slower to rebound than other property types. With improved GDP and steady employment growth, 2014 marks the first time retailers are expanding. Because of increased levels of e-commerce, retail is expected to become leaner in the future. Technology is enabling merchants to get by with much less inventory which means they need less space.

What other changes have you seen in the retail real estate market recently, whether at the local, state or national level? Share your insights by commenting below!

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