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Posts tagged "impact"

Home» Posts tagged "impact"

Central PA Loses Rite Aid and Harsco HQs – A Look at Causes & Impact

Posted on September 27, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Office Leasing No Comments

In the span of about one week, both Rite Aid and Harsco made the major announcement that they would be transitioning their headquarters out of Central Pennsylvania and into Philadelphia. These major companies account for significant commercial office space and even more local jobs that now hang in the balance. The physical space is the most obvious asset to become vacated in the move. Rite Aid accounts for 205,000 square feet of space located at 30 Hunter Lane in Camp Hill. And Harsco currently occupies approximately 40,000 square feet of space located at 350 Poplar Church Road in Camp Hill. The relocation of these two company headquarters will result in an increase in vacancy in the Harrisburg West Submarket from 10% to 12.45%. In addition to physical space, local jobs, particularly the ones that are not conducive to a virtual work environment, are uncertain to make the transition.

According to the information shared in the official announcements from both Rite Aid and Harsco, we learned some valuable information about the plans for the transition, what fueled their decision, and how this stands to impact local jobs immediately and into the future. Keep reading to learn what these reasons are, how COVID-19 plays a role (or didn’t), and what this could predict of other companies choosing to do the same in the future.

Remote-First Work Approach

According to Fox News, Rite Aid is transitioning to a “remote-first work approach for corporate associates. Rite Aid stated that they had been closely monitoring associates who have been successfully working remotely since the early days of the pandemic. This provided valuable insight into how employees viewed this flexible style of work and the results it yielded. An internal survey found that a vast majority of these associates preferred working from home and found themselves to be more productive in their work.

Conversely, Harsco’s plans do not call for a hybrid workplace. Their new location is in the center of the city in Philadelphia and current plans point to transitioning back to working face-to-face.

Interestingly, a recent CoStar survey examined employee readiness to return to a physical work environment. Though the majority of workers responded that they were “somewhat okay” with returning to the office, a notable number of people expressed hesitation and concern about returning to work. Broken down by generation, ethnicity, and gender, the results look like this.

Rite Aid’s focus on moving to a new headquarters that accommodates an effective remote-first work approach makes sense. They are listening to the preferences (and hesitations) of their employees and using this as an opportunity to transition to a work style that fits the style of their team now and into the future.

The Appeal of Collaboration Space

Allowing for more employees to work remotely doesn’t fully explain why Rite Aid would pull its headquarters from Camp Hill and move to a more expensive market like Philadelphia. But maybe this will. In its official announcement, Rite Aid explained that its new model for use of its physical locations would be supported by a network of collaboration centers throughout the company’s geographic footprint. Its official headquarters in Philadelphia is a space specifically designed for in-person collaboration and company gatherings, instead of office spaces. This means what while more employees than ever will be working remotely when they do need to come together, the space they have is conducive for effective collaboration.

Both Companies’ Draw to Larger and Diverse Talent Pool

As is often said in real estate, it’s all about location, location, location. The new Rite Aid headquarters will be in Philadelphia’s Navy Yard district, an area that the city has been building up rapidly in recent years. This is an attractive area for a business because of its surrounding talent pool that is growing as rapidly as its new and accommodating options for office space. When hiring for positions that require in-person work, Rite Aid will now attract talent from the greater Philadelphia market as opposed to the more rural and much smaller Central Pennsylvania market.

Harsco, the company which was established in 1853 as the Harrisburg Car Company, operates in more than 30 counties and employs 12,000 people, but only about 100 in the Harrisburg area. Quite simply, it has outgrown this market. According to CBS21 News, Nick Grasberger, Chairman and CEO of Harsco Corporation says “We are confident that this move to America’s sixth-largest city will provide us with more options to the future resources needed to fuel our growth.”

Closer Proximity to Customers and Federal Government Agencies

One more reason Rite Aid shared for its decision to move its headquarters is its desire to be more centrally located to its customer base as well as federal government agencies. Philadelphia is a much larger market, sixth in the nation in fact, so there is little argument that its new headquarters will place it closer to a larger customer base, especially one that is urban and with greater diversity.

Speaking to the federal government agencies point, both companies are located within close proximity to state government, with the capital city right over the bridge from current headquarters in Camp Hill. The move is not to say that state issues and the connections made in Central PA are not of value, but it appears both have eyes on national growth. Making the decision now to move to a location with more federal government representation and connections is a strategic decision for the future.

What this Means for Central PA

Though the loss of the headquarters of two sizeable companies, both within a very close time frame, comes as a notable blow to Central PA, there may be a silver lining in all of this. Both companies were intentional about addressing the concern over lost jobs and focused on their intent to preserve as many local jobs as possible during the transition while opening up new avenues for job creation. The actual impact on local jobs remains to be seen, and with that comes the trickle-down impact on other industries such as hotels, restaurants, and retail stores that rely on the business from individuals who live, work, and play in Central PA.

Additionally, the loss of Rite Aid and Harsco will create a significant vacancy in commercial real estate in the local market. It remains to be seen what will become of their vacated space and what business will ultimately make use of it. With every loss comes opportunity. Whatever business moves into this space also brings the potential for jobs and economic growth. On the bright side, both companies have chosen to maintain headquarters in Pennsylvania which is better than moving outside the borders to a neighboring state. Both anticipate being in their new Philadelphia offices by 2023, providing ample notice for transition both for the business as well as for the Central PA and Philadelphia markets.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, camp hill, central pennsylvania, Commercial Real Estate, Economy, harriburg, harsco, headquarters, hq, impact, jobs, local, Mike Kushner, moving, news, offices, Omni Realty Group, pa, pennsylvania, philadelphia, regional, remote work, rite aid, trends, virtual work, virtual workspace

Economic Impact of Rising Commercial Construction Costs

Posted on July 14, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

When a global pandemic first hit, the main concern was rightfully on the health and wellbeing of our population. As we slowly gained knowledge and tools to bring the spread of this virus under control, something equally as powerful and disruptive was already burning through the economy like wildfire.

Ongoing pandemic-related disruptions in the supply chain of a range of construction materials are undermining project demand and this has trickled down to impact just about every industry imaginable. Most directly, the delays and cost increases fall on construction businesses, their workers, and their clients who are waiting on them to complete projects varying from a single-family home to mega complexes that have been in the works for years.

These mass shortages caused by the inability to ship or receive some of our economy’s most essential materials, such as lumber and steel, have the construction industry in between a rock and a hard place. And we can be sure that they will not be the only sector to feel the blow of delayed project timelines and skyrocketing costs. How does all of this stand to impact the progress and financial health of our economy? Keep reading for key insights.

Understanding the Impact

According to construction project estimators, one of the biggest reasons for material shortages is the inability to ship available materials by rail or truck. Due to container and trucking shortages being felt across the country, anything with significant shipping and logistics components is highly likely to cause lead time issues. If the easing of tariffs is put into place, pricing and availability should begin to return to normal levels, which would have a positive impact on current projects and the market as a whole. However, with the shipping container and freight backlog that currently exists, bringing in significant quantities of overseas material only adds to the current challenge.

GRAPH COURTESY OF AGC OF AMERICA

Shortages Drive Cost

While general contractors can usually protect against the expectation that costs will increase, the construction industry has not experienced such dramatic material cost increases in recent history. Material cost increases, coupled with the already existing labor and housing shortages, will continue to impact the industry, domestically and globally, for the foreseeable future. Such shortages could delay the start of new projects around the country and may trigger additional claims on projects that are currently underway.

These increases and challenges are cause for concern; it’s important for business owners to consider the types of materials that their project will require. While commercial construction material costs have risen as well, it is not to the extent that residential construction costs rose due to its heavy reliance on softwood lumber. For commercial construction, steel prices generally have a greater impact.

Delays Across the Board

Some material suppliers have completely canceled their bids or contracts due to the lack of materials. While others have indicated delays of six months or more and are currently quoting prices for materials (like engineered wood products) that will not ship until early 2022! Because of these setbacks, the industry can expect an increase in claims and disputes over material prices and associated delays.

Getting Creative with Contracts

Project participants might consider amending their contracts, incorporating new or modified cost-escalation provisions, or adding riders for adjustments to contract terms based on certain material cost increases, such as based on express percentage increases. Parties might also negotiate contract allowances for certain materials or incorporate cost-sharing for material price increases that exceed certain thresholds.

Push On or Wait?

Borrowing is very inexpensive right now, and even a slight increase in lending rates down the road could add hundreds of thousands of dollars in overall costs, depending on the length of the loan agreement. Project owners need to weigh the risks of waiting for material prices to come down against the probability of rising inflation and interest rates. Likewise, if waiting means you can’t expand your production capacity, grow your business, or address the needs of those you serve because of your facility’s limitations, the long-term implications could negate and even overshadow any potential savings.

What’s most important to keep in mind is that the market has demonstrated again and again that everything flows. Trends (and troubles) will come and go, and when the market experiences a negative impact caused by something else, it will look to correct itself almost immediately. To address the delay of construction materials and labor, and the rise in construction costs, as a result, we can see solutions already emerging. These range from using alternate materials, negotiating more flexible terms within a contract, phasing out projects, and getting creative with how and when to borrow money to take advantage of low-interest rates.

The commercial construction industry will rebound, if not even stronger than it was before the pandemic hit. The lesson here is to remain patient, seek innovative and collaborative solutions, and keep your eyes set on the long-term evening-out of any negative impact you may be experiencing today.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, agent, blog, broker, buyers agent, central pa, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, construction industry, CRE, data, economic, Economy, finances, harrisburg, impact, industrial, local, Mike Kushner, money, national, new build, office, omni real estate, Omni Realty Group, regional pennsylvania, retail, space, tenant represenative, trends, united states

The Good, the Bad, and the Unbelievable: How the Pandemic Has Forever Changed Industrial Real Estate

Posted on October 13, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Industrial, Trends No Comments

Industrial real estate had been booming for the last five years, mostly propelled forward by e-commerce and changes in consumer behavior. If that wasn’t enough for industrial real estate owners to adapt to, a global pandemic hit and impacted the way just about everything worked previously. As we adjust to this new reality, there’s one looming question: can industrial success last in the age of COVID-19?

While every sector of the market has challenges right now, there’s good reason to think industrial will continue to thrive. But tenant demands will continue to shift under the mounting pressures of the pandemic. From understanding the current state of leasing activity and e-commerce to getting in front of emerging trends like grocery deliveries, there are a lot of things that need to be considered, monitored, and adjusted.

Here are the main areas impacted by COVID-19 and what industrial owners need to know to meet tenant demand now and into the future. Take a look!

Construction Delays

Construction delays caused by COVID-19 are becoming increasingly common and many industrial real estate owners are having trouble securing permits. That’s ultimately forcing a slowdown of expansion efforts, something that needs to be overcome considering the continued growth of e-commerce.

The industrial sector ended Q1 of this year at a high point with near record lows hovering below 6%, and rents growing 8.8% year-over-year while leasing velocity accelerated. There’s no doubt the pandemic has slowed markets down, but experts anticipate the trends supporting them to stay fundamentally intact.

That’s not to say the industrial sector isn’t experiencing headwinds. Across the market, industrial owners recognize that many tenants are still facing serious risks, and bankruptcies are expected. As a starting point to protecting themselves against risk, some owners are considering COVID-19 clauses in future leases to help them navigate these situations again in a possible future outbreak.

Accelerated E-commerce Growth

E-commerce is one of the few sectors of the market to actually benefit from COVID-19, and it’s well-positioned to lead the recovery. That’s according to JLL’s report COVID-19: Global Real Estate Implications, which said the pandemic will likely boost demand for manufacturing and logistics facilities that e-commerce needs to continue expanding. The report also said the pandemic will accelerate many existing trends, including the growth of online retail as more of the economy moves to online sales.

In our new economy, a retailer might not necessarily need a storefront to succeed anymore, but it does need a robust supply chain strategy. To meet the growth in demand, industrial owners in major metro areas will likely have to look further afield for suitable sites as demand outpaces local supply levels. This isn’t anything new for industrial markets, but the trend is only going to accelerate.

Increase in “Safety Stock”

It’s expected that e-commerce demand is growing given that people are looking for the safest and most convenient shopping options that allow for social distancing, but the pandemic has caused something else unexpected. Many occupiers of industrial spaces are planning a 3-5% increase in their safety stock levels to help safeguard against the rampant supply shortages experienced at the start of the pandemic. These measures will add additional demand for warehouse space to keep larger quantities of key items in storage.

Unprecedented Demand for Food Storage

While still a relatively foreign concept to much of America, COVID-19 is driving major demand growth for online grocery orders. In early May, CNBC reported that only 3-4% of grocery spending in the U.S. was online before the pandemic, but now online grocery orders have surged to account for between 10-15% of all grocery spending. While online grocery orders are expected to recede after the worst of the pandemic subsides, experts expect U.S. online grocery sales to stay between 5-10% moving forward.

This is a huge opportunity for industrial owners. But to really capitalize on the trend, owners need to invest big in cold storage. A challenge is that this niche is operationally complex and requires specialized knowledge to succeed. Because most first-generation facilities are designed, owned, and already in use by grocery and foodservice companies, second-generation spaces offer the biggest opportunities for industrial investors.

A Local Perspective

It comes as little to no surprise that Central Pennsylvania experienced a sharp drop-off in absorption, which is what we are seeing everywhere. According to CoStar, Harrisburg has a slight uptick in vacancies, but that’s not troubling because there was spec space coming online and leasing activity has slowed. See below for the local probability of leasing commercial space a few months from now, which helps to show how quickly properties are likely to lease in the region moving forward.

It’s also worth noting that there is no negative absorption in Harrisburg through 2020. This is a positive sign for the local commercial real estate market because it means major tenants have not left, or if they did leave, the vacated space was instantly filled. That’s not normally much of a win, but in Coronatimes is a big deal.

 

And then there’s construction. Specifically, in Central PA there has not been a surge in construction in the region, but there are still millions that broke ground after the pandemic began, which testifies to the level of confidence in the local shipping market because most elsewhere construction has flatlined.

Looking Ahead

The industrial real estate market has been a remarkable success story both in Central Pennsylvania and beyond. And while the near future is likely to carry its fair share of challenges as the market faces tenant bankruptcies and construction delays, this sector is well-positioned to emerge from the pandemic less unscathed than others in the commercial real estate industry. Owners and investors who successfully navigate these challenges while getting ahead of evolving tenant demands, like grocery delivery and cold storage, will be the strongest moving forward.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, camp hill, carlisle, central pennsylvania, challenges, Commercial Real Estate, covi, covid-19 pandemic, CRE, development, Economy, growth, harribsurg, hershey, hummelstown, impact, industrial real estate, industrial space, lancaster, market, mechanicsburg, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty Group, online retail, real estate investing, retail ecommerce, storage, trends, warehouse, warehousing distribution, york

COVID-19 Crushes an Already Delicate Retail Real Estate Market

Posted on September 1, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Retail No Comments

You don’t have to dig far into the news before you’re hit with another announcement of a retail store closing its doors and filing for bankruptcy due to the global pandemic. For many retail businesses who were already in debt before the hit of COVID-19, this blow has proven to be one from which many businesses will not recover.

It’s reported that as many as 25,000 stores could shutter their doors in 2020 due to COVID-19 impact. This is 10,000 more than the previously estimated 15,000 stores that would close this year following a record number of closings in 2019 and the liquidation of chains like Payless ShoeSource, Gymboree and Dressbarn. And it appears this is only the beginning. The list of retailers filing for bankruptcy since just May now includes RTW Retailwinds, Lucky Brand, J.C. Penney, Brooks Brothers, Sur La Table, Neiman Marcus, Tuesday Morning, GNC Holdings and J. Crew.

In filing for bankruptcy, some retailers like Pier 1 Imports will close all of their stores permanently, while others like Victoria’s Secret and J.C. Penney, will only close 250 and 154 store respectively, but plan to keep the rest open at this time. Even the biggest brands like Starbucks are facing closures even though just moths prior drive-thru lines wrapped around the coffee shop most mornings. They are set to close 400 company-owned locations over the next 18 months. As People stated, it’s essentially every household name brand who is filing for bankruptcy or closing stores amid the pandemic.

A Crisis for Shopping Malls

Interestingly, it’s estimated that approximately 55%-60% of all store closures will be mall-based. This will result in heavily vacant malls that can’t attract the shoppers it once did, possibly forcing more store closures or the closure of the entire mall. As this sweeps across the nation, we will face large, unused commercial retail space with no fast or easy way for owners and investors of CRE properties to recoup their loss.

The challenges surrounding department store closures are unique and especially problematic for malls not just because of the foot traffic they’re supposed to deliver. Many malls also have clauses in their leases that allow other, smaller tenants to leave if anchor tenants drop out. So once retailers like J.C. Penney close this could open the flood gate for massive departures from smaller stores, without any real course of action from the malls.

This begs the question, can shopping malls survive the coronavirus pandemic with the reality of massive, permanent store closings?

Before COVID-19, shopping malls were just beginning to again hit their stride for those who smartly adapted to the shift to online retail. Many had gone to great lengths to incorporate more dining, entertainment, and fitness and personal services into their offerings to attract people to do more than just shop. Now that the pandemic has hit, all of these in-person past times have been severely impacted and forced to reduce occupancies or close entirely. As USA Today shared, “The whole business model of a mall, which is about pulling in as many people as you can and getting them to stay for as long as you can, has just unraveled.”

Analysts at Coresight Research predict a bleak future for shopping malls. They project that about 25% of America’s malls will disappear within the next three to five years. But add that this could rise to as many as 50% if we can’t stop the bleeding. If this happens, the face of America and the way people spend their time and make retail purchases will drastically change even more than they already have.

A Silver Lining – For a Lucky Few

What’s interesting to note is that some retailers have flourished during the pandemic. For these retail stores, nearly all of them – such as Walmart, Target, Kroger and Home Depot – offered essential services of some kind, including groceries and home improvement goods. Few are typically located in malls. And as we know for a while there, if you were a retailer who provided paper goods or sanitizer and cleaning supplies, your business instantly boomed beginning in March.

Additionally, these “big box” businesses are well poised to also benefit from online shopping, already having the infrastructure in place and the warehousing to store and ship items efficiently. For many smaller retailers and especially boutique businesses, it simply isn’t possible to adjust this quickly or finance it.

For retailers who remain hopeful that there will again be a day when people can get back to shopping like they did pre-COVID-19, it’s usually with the belief there will be a vaccine in the next 12-18 months. Unfortunately the reality is many businesses will not survive that long. And for the strong who do survive, they will surely feel the hit in the short-term.

How do you think such widespread retail closures will impact the way we shop and spend our free time? Better yet, what stands to replace the “experiential” model of shopping malls? Share your thoughts by commenting below.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, agent, bankruptcy, broker, central pa, closing, closures, covi-19, COVID, COVID19, entertainment, impact, local market, mall, money, pandemic, pennsylvania, restaurants, retail, retail real estate, shopping, shopping mall, shut down, stores, tenant representative

The Millworks Shares How COVID-19 Has Impacted the Restaurant Industry

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market No Comments

Like most industries, the restaurant industry has faced a sudden and unavoidable need to adapt to the changes amidst COVID-19. Nationwide, restaurants that could typically pack their tables during mealtimes, happy hours, and late night gatherings were forced to shutter their locations for weeks, even months on end. And now, even though restaurants in Pennsylvania were allowed to again open their doors, it’s far from business as usual.

Although this was a huge blow to our restaurants, one thing is certain: people always need to eat. This means that so long as restaurants can find a way to safely prepare and serve food, there is demand for their services. Restaurants have adapted by expanding their outdoor seating, limiting tables in use, offering contactless, curb-side pickup, frequently sanitizing common spaces, and of course requiring face masks for both staff and guests. The question now is how sustainable is this model? And can restaurants anticipate their revenue to pick back up?

To provide a local perspective as to what’s going on here in Central Pennsylvania and how the restaurant industry has had to make rapid and drastic changes to the way they do business, Omni Realty Group reached out to a Harrisburg restauranteur. Josh Kesler, owner of The Millworks located in downtown Harrisburg, joins us to weigh in on how his business has been impacted by COVID-19 and how he has adapted to changing circumstances.

Omni: Describe how The Millworks has been impacted by COVID-19 and your decision to temporarily close.

JK: After being closed for several months during the initial shutdown, we were excited to get back open, even at a more limited capacity of 50% in Pennsylvania. But several weeks after reopening, we had a staff member test positive for COVID-19. We immediately closed again pending test results. Because of testing delays, several days turned into several weeks, and I ultimately made the decision that we wouldn’t be able to function by closing every time an employee tested positive. So for that reason we are closing operations until there is at least one of the following: sustained down swing in new case numbers, a COVID-19 treatment that greatly reduces the death rate, or a vaccine.

But the circumstances are vastly different for many restaurants. Ones that were positioned pre-COVID-19 with a robust take-out business have been better able to transition into the new environment. Others, such as The Millworks, is a destination business that has built its core from experiential dining and shopping. So there’s no ‘one size fits all’ approach to how to react to the situation. It’s really dependent on the market positioning before the pandemic. Some restaurants are also struggling with converting to a take-out model because of the adjustment in office work. For years take-out was really location driven, i.e. grab a bite to-go on your way home from the office. But with most people working from home, traffic trajectories have changed greatly. Proximity to residences, not offices, is the key. And that factor may continue to play out after the pandemic if businesses decide not to carry the expense of office space.

Omni: Looking to the future when and how do you plan to resume business? What factors will play into this decision?

JK: Our handling of the virus will ultimately decide when the best time to reopen is. If new infections decrease, I think we all hope that the Governor will loosen the capacity restrictions on bars and restaurants. At the current 25% capacity restriction and colder weather approaching (losing outdoor dining), it doesn’t seem viable for most restaurants to weather that sort of downturn. Remember, most dine-in restaurants survive to a large degree on alcohol sales, and with bar service limited and general capacity reduced, the economics become difficult.

The timing of losing outdoor dining is also coupled with the end of the PPP for most restaurants, and I believe staffing and overhead will become too great for many to continue forward. Fortunately for The Millworks, I have built a solid war chest that will be able to sustain us for an extended shutdown, but I do worry that many of my colleagues won’t be able to, and I really feel for them right now.

Omni: How are you using the adjustments due to COVID-19 to reinvest in your business, such as renovations, changes, or improvements?

JK: I’ve really limited expenditures on improvements to pivot to the new COVID-19 reality, for no other reason than that the reality is changing rapidly, sometimes daily.

Omni: Of the staff you have retained during this time, how have their roles and duties shifted?

JK: At the current time, all but two of my 85 employees are laid off. It is by far the single greatest feeling of defeat, having had to lay off staff that have been the foundation and fabric of my business. But in the end, by making the decisions I have and by years of positioning before the crisis, I can guarantee all of them a job on the other side of this. I’m sure there are varying political views, but I strongly urge the support of extended unemployment insurance for restaurant workers until we get past this crisis. The looming income shortfalls will force millions of talented people to seek careers in other industries. That is already happening to some degree.

Omni: Is there any silver lining you have found through all of this?

JK: As dire as all of this sounds, I do think those who survive the crisis will flourish on the other side. It may take some time for all of us to readjust our habits, but let’s face it, restaurants are critical in how we enjoy time with our friends, family, and co-workers. It’s like going to church, or the baseball game, or the backyard barbeque. It’s just who we are and what we do as people, and there will never be a shortage of that over the long term.

***

Omni Realty Group thanks Josh Kesler for sharing his insight and experiences adapting to COVID-19. Each restaurant has taken a unique approach to adapting to COVID-19, and it’s very interesting to learn the thought behind the changes and future adjustments that may still be yet to come.

As it relates to commercial real estate, one of the biggest obstacles is making the best use of whatever space you have, whether that’s looking to add outdoor seating, reconfigure your indoor seating to accommodate social distancing, or choosing to downsize if business demand is down. For restaurants owners, what’s most important is to remain flexible creative with your business solutions so that you are in the best position to safely remain open during COVID-19.

Have you patronized a restaurant since COVID-19 hit? Did you dine inside, outside, or get takeout? And what was your basis for this decision? We’d love to hear your perspective on restaurant dining and COVID-19 concerns. Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

Posted on April 28, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

All across our nation, businesses that once functioned from physical office space had to quickly transform their processes to function remotely as the government mandated stay-at-home orders to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus. This proved to be a strenuous and uncomfortable transition for most businesses, regardless of size or structure. Businesses with just a handful of employees, all the way up to organizations and institutions with thousands of employees scrambled to piece together the technologies and protocol that would allow them to remain functional, even when separated physically.

The typical boardroom meetings turned into Zoom calls, workshops and trainings that were to be conducted in-person, needed to mold into virtual delivery, and much more. As is to be expected, there was a steep learning curve and many technological challenges to overcome.

Now that Pennsylvania is more than a month into its statewide stay-at-home orders, many businesses have found new normal of working virtually. This is encouraging for those businesses who have managed to survive, and even thrive amidst such volatile times for our economy. However, it presents an uncertainty as to how businesses will choose to resume their traditional work environment, when they have permission to do so.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Nationally

Before COVID-19, around 43% of workers “occasionally” worked from home [versus 39% in 2012], 62% of workers said they could work remotely, and 80% of workers wanted to work from home at least “some of the time.” Working (remotely) through this pandemic will likely increase those percentages, spelling rough waters ahead for office landlords. Now during the stay-at-home and work-from-home orders, employers are seeing how they can operate with some or all their employees working remotely, and even do so as or more efficiently than when working from their traditional work environment.

As a result, it’s likely many employers will closely consider how they might leverage the cost-savings associated with reducing or completely eliminating the overhead of physical office space, which will result in increased office space vacancies, shorter leases, reduction of space needs from renewing tenants and less money available for tenant improvements. Vacancies will rise dramatically before they slowly decline. With approximately 8.1 billion square feet of office space nationally, the expected addition of another 335 million square feet through 2024 is very much in doubt.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Locally

Being the home of Pennsylvania’s capital will provide the Central PA region with some shelter, but there is little chance this market does not cool in the very near future. Employment gains have underperformed the national average for the duration of this cycle, and demographic trends are unfavorable. Residents are older, population growth is slow, and the state’s fiscal situation is, quite frankly, a mess.

Harrisburg is an underdeveloped capital compared to Columbus, Albany, and Annapolis; and the cultural epicenter of central Pennsylvania is in Lancaster. Harrisburg is trying to evolve into a knowledge-based economy and has adopted business-friendly incentives that have helped create nearly two dozen tech startups, which have generated 1,000 jobs. But the backbone of the economy still lies with Hershey and Rite Aid, which have headquarters in the region.

Fortunately, Central PA also has a strong education and medical economy that is reflective of statewide employment. Education and health services jobs, which now track evenly with government jobs in the state’s capital, grew by more than 4% annually. Expanding employment opportunities have increased demand for office space, and employment in office-using industries is well above pre-recession figures; but this remains, and likely will remain, a slow-growth market. Additionally, Pennsylvania as a whole will likely face significant financial problems after the virus subsides.

Vacancies currently sit at close to 6.6%, representing a year over year change of 0.0%, but are almost certain to spike in the very near future. While 12 month absorption figures (9,300 square-feet) can be negative, vacancies remain under control thanks to limited levels of new supply. The limited demand, and high number of small businesses operating here, could hamper the city for years if the quarantine carries on for months, as the federal government is estimating it will.

A New Work-From-Home Paradigm

When it comes to navigating the new work-from-home paradigm, we can expect “work-from-home” policies to be established to assure proper decorum, productivity standards, communication, and online protocols. Also watch for the adoption of four-day work weeks, shorter workdays, and greater reliance on technology for current employees. Extensions of sick leave “banking” and “healthy-to-come-to-work” standards are likely to become commonplace.

From the tech side of things, the use of platforms like Zoom, Go To Meeting and Blue Jeans video conferencing technology will become more popular alternatives than traditional in-person meetings. There will also be an increased expectation that these meetings will be as, or more productive than in-person meetings. Board management software and other secure online document management such as DocuSign, DropBox, and shared drives could electronically account for 70% – 75% of all “approval” transactions, for businesses who require such. Robust CRM (customer relationship management) platforms will be used increasingly to interact with customers and clients. Additionally, automation and outsourcing could replace 20% – 30% of employees who perform clerical, accounting, and administrative functions.

A Looming Recession

No matter how you look at things, the bottom line is that this pandemic will push the U.S. into a recession. There’s simply no way around it, at least immediately. Overall GDP growth in 2020 is expected to decline 10% – 13% which is the deepest recession on record. Some expect unemployment could rise to 10% – 15%, or higher, assuming a COVID-19 peak occurs by the 3Q.

The Central PA region has been significantly impacted by the Coronavirus. As of first quarter, the country closed up businesses and the federal government is estimating it will take months before there is a return to normalcy. There is no telling how long the shut out will occur, or what impact it could have on the Central PA office market, though it will likely be immense. Unemployment numbers are beginning to spike, and in the coming weeks, it is likely that hundreds of more businesses could fail, even with the Governor’s promise of reopening the Commonwealth on May 8. Additionally, rents will likely decline as vacancies skyrocket, and construction and investment activity will likely remain extraordinarily limited through the remainder of 2020.

The fundamentals of how Americans live, work, shop and play have changed and will not return to historical norms of behavior, consumption and lifestyles. The year 2020 will be analogous to the impacts of and transformative changes resulting from the Great Depression [1929 – 1932], which took more than 10 years to recover.

Where do we go from here?

Commercial real estate must look at this as an opportunity, just like every industry, to pause and pivot. The market prior to COVID-19 will not be the same market to which we will return. But we will return to something and we must learn to navigate this new landscape by remaining flexible, thoughtful, and strategic. Historically, Central PA has been able to withstand some of the most tumultuous economic storms on the past. Yes, gains are about to take a hard hit as the Coronavirus tears through the commercial real estate world, but this only means we need to bear down an be open to opportunities wherever they may arise.

One of the hardest hit areas of commercial real estate will be new construction. With little supply underway at second quarter, and the Coronavirus halting construction across the world, there is very little chance this market sees any notable projects deliver this year. Most projects since 2015 have either been build-to-suit efforts or significantly pre-leased prior to ground break.

With most new construction on hold, there could be the opportunity for existing office renovations. Many businesses may be looking to reconfigure their space to better isolate employees, adhere to whatever new social distancing protocols come from this, or install sanitary features like air purifying systems. Commercial real estate construction companies and developers would be wise to shift their focus to this type of work.

Another hard hit sector will be companies that provide shared and collaborative office space, like WeWork. In fact, society as a whole is likely to question the open office, collaborative work space, and creative office floor plans. Many businesses and sole proprietors chose to cancel their memberships to such services during the pandemic and it will be exceptionally challenging to regain all that was lost once the stay-at-home orders are lifted. For those who have found that they can effectively work from their own home office spaces, they may continue to do so in an effort to lighten overhead costs. Others may have been hit so hard by the pandemic that there is not a business to which they can return, further reducing their need for office space.

Again, the opportunity here is to reconfigure both the physical shared office spaces to be better isolated and sanitary, but also rethink the business model of how companies charge for space. Being flexible and fluid for business owners as they navigate the new normal is key right now.

To close on a positive not, the one clear winner in the office sector will be healthcare, medical office buildings, and biotech facilities. This sector is expected to grow 10% – 16% annually over the next decade as the entire local, county, state, and national healthcare facilities infrastructure and platform are reshaped, integrated and expanded as society mends and strengths as a result of a pandemic like the world has never seen.

If you are a commercial real estate professional, how have you been impacted thus far by COVID-19. Or if you are a business owner or employee who has transitioned to a virtual work environment, how do you anticipate this experience to transition your “new normal” once the stay-at-home order is lifted?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Jobs – Not Economy – Drive Commercial Real Estate Activity

Posted on August 22, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.


Earlier this month, it was reported that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected. To put this into perspective, claims dropped to 208,000 during the week of July 14, which was the lowest it has been since December 1969! After peaking at nearly 300,000 claims in October of 2017, we have seen a mostly steady (with some variation) decline in unemployment claims moving forward.

Dropping unemployment numbers indicate a strong labor market. The United States has an estimated 149 million jobs – 19 million more than it did just nine years ago. When you think about that type of job growth, it’s easy to see how it will have an impact on commercial real estate. To accommodate 19 million more workers, businesses have had to add space. Even for jobs that are run outside of traditional office space, there are still many more that do utilize office, retail or industrial real estate to some capacity.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Many people may assume that it’s the economy that drives commercial real estate activity, but really it’s jobs. The two are closely correlated, but for several compelling reasons jobs have the greater impact and drive businesses to either expand or contract their commercial space.

It all comes down to people and space.

Economic growth is measured by GDP and can be fueled by any number of factors, most of which won’t have a direct impact on commercial real estate. Businesses can earn more money without necessarily needing to hire more people or move into a different commercial location. Though it’s common that when the economy is growing, the commercial real estate industry becomes more active, the true driving force is jobs.

When businesses need more people, they also need more space to accommodate these people. A business using traditional office space is not likely able to hire more than three or so people before working quarters begin to feel a bit crammed. As a result, they move. It is increasing jobs, not just economy, that spurs new commercial real estate activity.

Change doesn’t happen overnight.

There is somewhat of a long tail on job growth driving commercial real estate activity. It takes time to catch up! When businesses are adding employees, they will usually make their current space “work” for as long as possible and then strategically move into a bigger space when they absolutely must. Conversely, when businesses are forced to lay off employees, they often stay in their current space, even if it means some space goes unused. The reason is it’s easier (and less expensive) to lay off employees as the first means of cutting costs than it is to downsize commercial space.

So, the job growth that we’ve seen over the course of many years is now driving the commercial real estate activity we are seeing today.

Slowing, but not stopping.

Job growth peaked in early 2015, then fell steadily through the end of 2017. Since then we have seen a modest, yet mostly steady increase in recent months. The reality is job growth, at any rate, cannot go on forever. The reason is, at some point, the United States will reach its “full employment” where everyone who wants a job, has a job. The unemployment rate, now at 4%, is about as low as it has been since the late 1960s, almost 50 years ago.

For commercial real estate, the link between job growth and space demand is clear and direct, though there may be lags. There will always be businesses who are looking to change their commercial space. Some will want more space, some will want less. Others will want to move to a newer space or will desire a different location. Businesses will close while others open. And so the cycle continues.

Short-Term Impact

Even with economic growth heating up, commercial real estate investors and property owners should not set their expectations for greater space absorption too high, at least in the short-term. Yes, there will be some pick-up in leasing associated with the spike in GDP growth. However, CRE professionals would be wise to focus more on job growth as the gauge for leasing prospects – and this outlook looks much more moderate because the ranks of unemployed workers available is largely exhausted. Looking at the short-term, we should not anticipate significant growth in property leasing this year. The surging industrial sector is the exception, which is the result of the shift from in-store to online shopping, not jobs.

Do you agree that it’s jobs, not the economy, that has the greater impact on commercial real estate activity? Why or why not? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.


Woman drawing business property chartHow Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate. 

Tenant-only broker representation is quickly growing in popularity and moving into the mainstream of real estate. Now more than ever, people looking for space realize they need a broker to solely represent their interests. It doesn’t take much more proof than to examine the success of the two premier exclusive tenant rep firms that are now part of multi-billion dollar companies. The Staubach Company, founded by Roger Staubach who pioneered the specialty of tenant representation,was acquired by Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and did $6 billion in revenue in 2015.

Studley, another firm offering exclusive tenant representation, was acquired by Savills, a global real estate powerhouse that did £1,283.5 million in revenue in 2015. If this trend continues, and I expect it will, other brokerage firms will need to adjust their practices to provide what clients want – fair and exclusive representation. Here is how I predict tenant representation to shape the future of real estate.

Technology will change the role of a tenant representative, but not replace it.

With technology making it easier than ever for potential tenants and buyers to find available properties, the future role of a tenant representative will be less about helping someone find space. Rather, tenant representatives will be sought out to provide advice, negotiate and exclusively represent the interests of the tenant/buyer.

Successful tenant representatives will use technology to streamline and automate the ways in which they research properties. This will allow them more time to reinvest in providing clients with their expertise and non-conflicting representation.

Large brokerage firms will need to “pick a side.”

In November 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that a listing broker had a fiduciary responsibility to both the buyer and the seller in a “dual agency” transaction. This case dealt with the 2007 sale of a Los Angeles home that was marketed as 15,000 square feet, but in reality was 11,000 square feet. The buyer reasonably felt like the brokerage company had pulled a fast one on him, especially since the house was both listed and sold by Coldwell Banker.

This court decision has potentially far-reaching impact on how commercial and residential real estate brokerages do business. While some may be able to continue doing business as usual and make their disclosures a little more apparent, the large brokerage firms may find it more difficult to do that and still be able to adequately represent both sides of a transaction. Essentially, large brokerage firms will need to pick a side. Will they represent the buyers or the sellers?

I predict we will see more real estate brokers choose to exclusively represent one side or the other so that they don’t risk the appearance of (or real) conflict of interest that just might result in a costly court battle.

Clients will get smart about seeking out exclusive representation.

Potential buyers and tenants are getting smarter about bringing their own representation to the table. Because of recent news stories and court cases, like the one mentioned above, light is finally being shed on the questionable practices of brokerage firms that represent both sides of a real estate deal. In nearly any other industry, this conflict of interest would never fly. Finally, real estate is catching up and buyers and tenants are seeking out exclusive representation to ensure a fair deal.

For many reasons, the growth in tenant-only broker representation is a good thing. It means tenants and buyers are getting equal representation in real estate transactions. It means companies are recognizing the conflict of interest in representing both sides and making changes to offer better transparency and disclosure clients. Finally, the growth in tenant-only broker representation means real estate professionals can and should specialize. People don’t want a Jack of All Trades, they want an expert who exclusively represents one side of a deal.


Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

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Hundreds of Thousands of Square-Feet of New Office Space Coming to Central PA in 2016

Posted on August 1, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Architect and foreman construction worker discussion a plan, looking blueprint on location site

Two new construction projects, located at the intersection of Carlisle Pike and Hogestown Road in Mechanicsburg, will deliver 258,000 square-feet of office space to Central Pennsylvania this year. Silver Spring Township is calling this construction “Class A Office Space Project” and are confident that, by attracting new businesses to the area, this space will benefit the entire community and its existing businesses.

Here’s a look at how the market has responded to this new space, as well as our analysis of the long-term trends that are yet to come.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries/Top Under-Construction Properties:

In Q2 2016, Central Pennsylvania had just one building delivered, but it was substantial. Ranked number one on the Greater Philadelphia list of Year-to-Date Deliveries is the office space located at 974 Hogestown Road, Building 200, Mechanicsburg. It is Class A office space that is 100% occupied. Another 129,000 square-feet building, also located on Hogestown Road is under construction and projected to be completed in Q3 2016.

Absorption and Demand:

In Q2 2016, the net absorption has almost doubled since Q1 2016 and is nearly six times larger than it was in Q4 2015. In Q4 2015 it was 50,949 square-feet, increasing to 162,531 square-feet and further increasing this quarter to 301,337 square-feet. This is the largest net absorption we have seen in over a year, compounded by the fact that Central Pennsylvania’s last four years of net absorption has been varied and volatile. One new building delivered this quarter contributed 129,000 square-feet of pre-leased space to the market. There are 2 more buildings currently under construction and they are expected to deliver 136,590 square-feet of space to the market later this year.

Deliveries, Absorption and Vacancy

Vacancy:

The vacant square footage decreased from 3,705,257 square-feet (Q1) to 3,532,920 (Q2). The vacancy rate also decreased to 6.5% (down 0.3% from last quarter). This is the lowest vacancy rate we have seen since prior to Q3 2012 and is only the second time it’s dipped into the 6.0% range, with last quarter being the first time. Though the vacancy rates have bounced slightly between increasing and decreasing each quarter since 2012, the overall trend has been a decrease.

Rental Rate:

This quarter, the quoted rental rate decreased from $17.32 (Q1) to $17.25. This is the first decrease that we have seen since Q3 2013. However, the fact that the price per square foot still remains above $17.00 makes it a higher price point than the market has experienced between the years of 2012-2015.

Vacant Space and Quoted Rental Rate

Employment:

Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate rose to 5.6% in June. The local labor force declined by 4,000 from May’s record high level of 6.54 million. The Pennsylvania Department of Labor reported that nine of the 11 sectors actually posted job increases in June; however, the two sectors that posted a loss, mining and logging and trade, transportation and utilities, were enough to cause the unemployment rate to rise. They each posted job losses of 600.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Silver Spring Township’s “Class A Office Space Project” is drawing new business into Central Pennsylvania. With 129,000 square-feet of 100% occupied space delivered to the market this quarter and another building of the same size to be delivered next quarter, there is a proven demand for this space. Furthermore, this spur of activity has the potential to draw even more businesses into the area who want to be part of the growing business community. This would come at an opportune time as the local market is experiencing a rise in unemployment.

What trend this quarter do you think will have the greatest impact on the Office Real Estate market moving forward? Share your insight by commenting below!

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Robust Growth Predicted in 2016 for Central PA Industrial Real Estate Market

Posted on January 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Robust Growth Predicted in 2016 for Central PA Industrial Real Estate MarketAre you ready to start off 2016 with some good news? The industrial real estate market in Central Pennsylvania is riding a wave of robust economic growth and all signs point to a continuing boom that could be the greatest in the sector’s history!

Looking at the fourth quarter data, our latest research confirms that the industrial sector of the local real estate market has now absorbed over 8.5 million square feet of warehouse space since first quarter 2015. With virtually every industrial sector experiencing increased demand—from data processing hubs to distribution space and manufacturing centers—the four quarters of 2015 saw more demand for industrial space than compared to the last 20 years.

What exactly is driving this demand and what other trends can we expect to result from this economic growth? Let’s take a look!

Three factors driving this high level of industrial demand:

Employment: Across the nation, the real GDP has been expanding at a better than 4% growth rate since April of 2014 (nearly 150 bps higher than the historical norm). The faster rate of growth has triggered a burst of new hiring across nearly all job sectors and geographies. The U.S. economy created 2.9 million net new nonfarm jobs in 2014, and more specifically, industrial employment grew by 442,000 net new payrolls in 2014 – the most industrial-related job growth in 17 years.

Looking specifically at Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, the unemployment rate is 3.5 percent as of November 2015 and the lowest it has been in recent months. We also closed the year with 294,626 nonfarm jobs which is nearly 7,500 more jobs than last year at this time and among the highest we have seen throughout 2015.

Manufacturing: Adding to the good news is the ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been in solid expansion mode for 25 consecutive quarters. Such robust trends have led to a 5.2% year-over-year increase (nationally) in industrial production—a rate of growth that went unmatched throughout the 2000’s.

Again looking locally, Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, Lancaster MSA and York-Hanover MSA each rank among the top 10 regions in the state for manufacturing jobs. Combined, these areas (that correlate with CoStar’s Central PA submarket) employ a total 89,356 people in this industry alone, as of second quarter 2015. Manufacturing jobs continue to trend upward after recovering from a major dip in 2010.

Harrisburg MSA Manufacturing Employment

Oil Prices: The past six months of continually falling oil prices have given the bulk of the U.S. economy an additional boost and will provide another tailwind for growth moving forward. Since June of 2014, crude oil prices (WTI) have declined more than 50%, making the national average gas price $2.17 per gallon as of mid-January, 2015. Most consumers and businesses are responding favorably to the drop in energy prices, and consumer spending has ramped up for vehicle sales, durable goods, building materials, clothing and accessories, food and beverage, etc.

In the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, oil prices are down about 18.6 percent from last winter, beating the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s prediction of a 15 percent drop this winter. The average for heating oil was $2.999 on Dec. 1, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with $3.683 a year ago. Local Marcellus Shale production has helped keep oil prices low while also adding jobs to the economy.

Final Takeaways

All of these factors bode well for industrial real estate, even as the rising value of the dollar and weakening economic conditions abroad present headwinds for the year ahead.

Additionally, new construction activity is showing no signs of slowing as there is currently 3.5 million square feet under construction in the Central Pennsylvania Submarket, of which 98% is being constructed on spec. The majority of new spec inventory is expected to deliver in the first quarter of 2016 and will push the overall vacancy rate northward for the market.

Despite the large amount of spec space coming online next quarter, tenant demand has been particularly strong in new inventory constructed over the past two years, evidenced by the market’s low vacancy and strong positive absorption.

The new space that has come into the market at the end of 2015 should continue this trend and generate a significant amount of activity in the near-term.

Which of the market factors discussed do you believe will be most powerful in 2016 and beyond? Join in the conversation by commenting below!

 

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