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COVID-19 and the Economy: Changes Coming to Commercial Real Estate

Posted on March 27, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

No matter where you go to consume news, you will be bombarded by anything and everything related to COVID-19. The impact of this novel virus on our world is impossible to fully understand or appreciate at this time. The term “unchartered water” is being used quite frequently and it couldn’t be more accurate.

Every industry is wondering how this will impact their business, both immediately and long-term. The simple truth is that no one really knows right now. The best we can do is look to history to see how the world has reacted to similar pandemics, economic crisis, and panic. Though the world has not seen a virus causing a global shut down like we are seeing with COVID-19, we can anticipate the significant changes we may expect to see take right here in Pennsylvania. Here’s how commercial real estate is getting pulled into the fold.

Economic Uncertainty. With so much uncertainty in the stock market these last few days, people get nervous. Talk to anyone working in the financial services industry, and he or she will tell you that most of their time right now is spent talking people off the ledge of making panicked decisions. And their fear is not unfounded. After all, trillions of dollars in paper wealth have essentially evaporated.

As people watch their diminishing 401K balances, they feel rightfully uncertain. And if such uncertainty causes consumers to hit the pause button on spending, a ripple effect is bound to take place. When attendees avoid concerts, sporting events, movies, or restaurants, businesses suffer a decline in sales. Operations who supply these enterprises, such as the trucking, food, linens, security, novelties industries then feel the pinch as the ripples become waves of lost revenue. How does this relate back to commercial real estate? All of these businesses rent or own commercial real estate, meaning CRE gets pulled into the downward spiral.

Supply chain disruption. Here are the facts (changing daily), steel production is down 90% in China. Auto sales in Asia is down 95%. One of the Port of LA’s largest exports is auto parts. Couple these factors with the typical container cancellations during the Chinese New Year and you create an immense lag in product delivery which will ripple out to impact just about every other industry imaginable.

Whole industries have come to a sudden halt. Hotels, restaurants, construction businesses, retail stores – and this is hardly scratching the surface of the businesses across the Commonwealth mandated to shutter their businesses for at least two weeks – likely more. The ripple effect this will have immediately and well into the future is near impossible to quantify. It’s not unlikely that some businesses may fold as a result. If such businesses owned or rented commercial real estate, this is space that will be vacated. Additionally, a lull in new construction will decrease the amount of new space delivered to the market at least through 2020.

Interest rates. There is much conversation and reason to believe that we will soon see more favorable interest rates, making commercial real estate financing more affordable. The reason is that mass stock market sell offs will generate proceeds which must be invested. Typically, a safe harbor for this cash is short term instruments such as Treasuries. However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. On March 3rd, The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by ½ of one percent which was met with much applause. The truth is that this is irrelevant. The federal funds rate refers to the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. The hard truth is that the federal funds rate has no impact on ten-year treasury yields.

The Silver Lining – Despite the doom and gloom being predicted for many industries as the result of the spread of COVID-19, there are (at least) three reasons why commercial real estate should look to the silver lining in all of this. Here’s what they are.

#1. Some stock market investors fleeing the equity markets may choose to start investing in real estate. Why wouldn’t they invest in CRE? After the rapid downturn that’s transpired in the last few weeks, it only seems logical that some would say enough is enough I’m going to pull my money out of the stock market and invest it in a lower risk type of investment.

#2. Treasury rates have hit historic lows. On March 9th, the ten-year treasury bottomed out at 0.569%, rising to 0.981% by Friday, March 13. For comparison, a year ago, the ten-year treasury closed at 2.592% so the decline has been dramatic to state the obvious. Those of us who have debt, whether it is a home loan or loans on our rental properties, are going to benefit by refinancing debt with significantly lower interest rates.

#3. If there is increased demand for CRE and interest rates remain low, the logical result will be that capitalization rates will continue to compress even further than they are right now. This means that even if a real estate investor doesn’t refinance his rental properties, the value of his real estate will still go up as cap rates continue to compress. So bottom line is that those of us who have invested in commercial real estate will inadvertently benefit from this black swan event.

#4. It’s now a tenant’s market. The speed at which the market shifted from a landlord’s market to a tenant’s market can hardly be overstated. COVID-19 has effectively caused a collapse of U.S. office demand, which ironically comes after the market set a post-recession record just last year. For tenants who are hunting for new office, retail, or industrial space, chances are you’re going to be able to negotiate favorable terms and pricing.

In trying and changing times like these, I am very glad I chose to be an exclusive tenant agent representative/buyer’s agent for commercial real estate. I can still be an asset to my clients, whereas other forms of brokerage are more greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this historic time, I can serve my clients through subleasing, lease restructuring, and negotiating better deals based on current market conditions.

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Cannabis-Friendly States Get Major Boost in Commercial Real Estate

Posted on February 25, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Already there are 33 states and the District of Columbia that have legalized marijuana use in some form. Many of these states, like Pennsylvania, allow for limited medical use. According to a recent article, dispensaries in Pennsylvania have sold more than seven hundred million dollars of medical marijuana since the Commonwealth implemented the program, just under two years ago. In that time, nearly 150,000 Pennsylvanians are now certified to buy weed.

While the debate of whether to legalize marijuana – medicinal or recreational – is heated, there is one aspect of this topic that is clear. The demand for the production and sale of medical marijuana is evident, both locally and nationwide. And for cannabis-friendly states, the demand for commercial real estate is on the rise. What does this mean for commercial real estate here in PA? Let’s take a look at a few key points.

Increased Demand for Both Commercial and Residential

States where medical and recreational marijuana are legal have seen increased property demand in both the commercial and residential sectors, according to a new study by the National Association of Realtors. The study also revealed that more than a third of real estate professionals polled said they saw an increase in requests for warehouses and other properties used for storage. In the same states, up to a quarter of members said they saw a spike in demand for storefronts, and one-fifth said there was a greater demand for land. States where marijuana has been legal the longest have seen the largest impact on both commercial and residential real estate.

A Double Edge Sword for Residential Real Estate

However, the residential sector has not benefited as much as the commercial sector; in fact there have actually been a few drawbacks as buyers assess the “new normal” of living near a grow house or dispensary. While between 7% and 12% of those polled said that they had seen increases in property values near dispensaries, between 8% and 27% said they’d seen property values fall. Homeowners are still adjusting to how they feel about purchasing property near areas of marijuana growth and consumption. In states where recreational marijuana is legal, 58 to 67 percent of residential property managers have seen addendums added to leases which restrict smoking on properties. The most common issue was the smell, followed by moisture issues.

CRE Investors See This as a Big Opportunity

Cannabis investors are buying up commercial property, particularly warehouses, in states where recreational and/or medicinal cannabis use has been legalized for more than three years, which was revealed in the same NAR study referenced above. Investors realize it is important to understand the supply and demand, and the regulatory dynamic in each state. Focusing on states with higher barriers to entry makes a license more valuable and makes that real estate more valuable. In 2018, warehouse demand in states with only medical use outpaced demand in states with recreational use, 34% to 27%, respectively, according to the NAR study.

The Economic Impact in Pennsylvania

Sales and participation have ramped up significantly since the program’s inaugural year. Last February, total sales had amounted to just $132 million, per the PA Department of Health. Fast forward twelve months, and the tally has risen to $711 million. That puts the Commonwealth at 439% sales jump from year one to year two. In a snap shot, Pennsylvania’s medical marijuana program has:

287,000 people registered
261,000 patients
1,800 registered doctors
1,300 approved doctors (practitioners)
168,000 active patients (2-2.5 visits a month)
4 million patient visits
$711 million in total sales
$288 million wholesale
$423 million in retail sales
$110 avg. purchase per visit
22 of 25 GPs are approved
15 of 25 GPs are shipping product
77 dispensaries are operational

Furthermore, dispensary operators don’t seem to think we’ve reached the saturation point yet. As more licenses are made available, and whatever lie ahead for further legalization of marijuana, one things is certain. As demand increases for marijuana, so will the demand increase for commercial estate.

What’s next for marijuana in Pennsylvania?

Back in October 2019, Governor Tom Wolf came out in favor of legalizing cannabis for recreational use. Last spring, a Franklin & Marshall College Poll showed that 59 percent, or nearly seven in 10 voters, support the idea of legalizing marijuana. But voter support alone is not enough. The legislation will have to pass both the House and the Senate, with much opposition particularly from the Republican Party.

While this doesn’t mean the possibility of someday legalizing recreational marijuana in Pennsylvania is off the table, it does mean there will be many hoops to jump through – just as there was for the legalization of medicinal use. Looking at the issue solely from an economic standpoint, there is much to be gained by continuing to open this market and remove barriers; however there are many other issues to consider.

Given the boost this has brought to commercial real estate, with the demand for more industrial and retail space, combined with more interest from CRE and cannabis investors, it’s wise to continue to watch for trends – both negative and positive. Looking to other states as examples also gives us insight into what to expect as the cannabis market in Pennsylvania grows, and how CRE professionals can continue to capitalize on the opportunity.

Do you agree with these trends and insights? Or do you have another viewpoint to share? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Growing U.S. Economy Drives Demand for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on February 13, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

The current economic climate in the United States has been a bit of a roller coaster, and depending upon the industry you’re examining, you may find more ups than downs or vice versa. Trade wars, combined with a slowdown in the U.S. manufacturing sector and around the globe, shook up equity markets and businesses in 2019. But robust job growth has extended the spending power of American consumers, which is ultimately our nation’s economic engine, according to CoStar’s 2019 Year in Review of the U.S. Economy.

To put this into perspective, the United. States is currently experiencing the longest economic expansion since World War II. Additionally, key indicators point to the economy staying solid in 2020, which will extend the record bull run for U.S. commercial real estate. While there are some risks that could eventually move the nation toward a recession, as it stands, the growing U.S. economy is driving demand for commercial real estate, with many factors emerging as a result. Let’s take a look at what the most profound outcomes of this CRE growth.

The growing economy bodes well for demand for commercial and multifamily real estate.

What it means for CRE: Expanding payrolls will continue to fuel demand for office space, while rising incomes and consumption will boost demand in industrial and retail sectors. As job growth continues, consumers appear quite optimistic and unconcerned by the trade war and any economic slowdown abroad.

Migration of workers from the Northeast and Midwest is growing the labor markets, which is fueling real estate demand, specifically in the South and U.S. West.

What it means for CRE: With the increase in labor as well as a growing demand for real estate in the South and U.S. West regions, CRE developers and investors should look to these markets as viable areas of growth. An increase in job creation also means a rising demand for office spaces and apartments. Property management will benefit from high occupancy rates, and job growth will lead to an increase in leasing. With low interest rates, commercial prices will likely see some gains.

The answer to combat rising development costs and rental prices in urban areas may be micro-apartments.

What it means for CRE: Simply put, micro-apartments extract the most value from every square foot. Standardized designs and “pre-fab” or modular construction cut development costs and shorten construction time, meaning developers could reduce expenses and start generating rental income more quickly. Some developers are designing studio apartments that are one-fifth the size and 40% of the cost of a typical studio, netting out to as little as 175 square feet.

Investing in industrial real estate, over retail, is the safer bet.

What it means for CRE: The industrial vacancy rate is extremely low, in many cities it’s below 5%, even 1% to 2% in some areas. Meanwhile, internet sales are cannibalizing traditional retail spaces, such as department stores, malls, and shopping centers. A unique aspect of this changing market is the emergence of “click-to-brick” retailers, like Amazon, that are establishing small retail stores in key areas. These spaces don’t carry much inventory, but they give customers the opportunity to interact with physical products and place an order. So for CRE investors and developers, industrial real estate carries more certainty and less risk than retail at this time.

Moving into the new decade, economists expect economic growth to slow somewhat as the labor market cools.

What it means for CRE: Consumer spending may lose some momentum and persistent global and trade policy headwinds weigh on business sentiment and investment. For commercial real estate, 2020 should remain a solid year of growth, especially for the industrial market. Though real estate professionals should remain strategic and always be looking ahead to factors that could impact economic growth, and CRE growth as a result.

What is your view of the current state of the nation’s economy right now? How do you anticipate this changing in 2020? Share your thoughts and insights by leaving a comment below.

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Central PA’s Largest Commercial Real Estate Sales of 2019

Posted on January 27, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market, Office Leasing, Retail, Trends No Comments

There is much we can learn by analyzing a market’s largest commercial real estate sales in a given year. Looking at each the industrial, retail, and office sectors, it’s interesting to see the varying demand for size, price and class from sector-to-sector. This tells us a lot of about the direction of economic growth for a region; and for a real estate investor, it also showcases where the best investment opportunities for the future may lie.

Here is a look at the largest commercial real estate sales that took place in Central Pennsylvania in 2019, grouped by sector and sorted by highest sell price.

INDUSTRIAL

400-500 S. Muddy Creek Road – Albertsons Distribution Center (Lancaster County)

U.S. Realty Advisors purchased the Albertsons distribution facility for $117,050,000, or approximately $76 per foot for the 1,539,407-square-foot property on January 2, 2019. The subject Albertsons Industrial portfolio is comprised of a dry bulk/cold storage facilities in Denver, PA and in Melrose, IL. The sole tenant of the portfolio is Albertsons and they signed a 20-year lease with nine five-year extension options (and a one-year extension option) as part of the sale-leaseback transaction. Albertsons is under an Absolute Net lease paying $5/sf in base rent. Their lease requires that the tenant is responsible for operating expenses, real estate taxes, utilities, repairs, maintenance and capital expenditures, in addition to its obligation to pay base rent.

221 S. 10^th Street – (Cumberland County)

This 885,802 SF, class B industrial warehouse sold on September 26, 2019 to Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust for $84.8 million, or $96 per square foot. The sale is part of an industrial portfolio (see #4 below). At a total price of $18.7 billion, this sale of 179 million square feet of urban, infill logistics assets constitute the largest private real estate transaction in history. The portfolio includes high-quality logistics assets across 36 major U.S. markets that GLP aggregated over the past four years.

2601 River Road – Turkey Hill (Lancaster County)

W.P. Carey purchased the Turkey Hill food production and distribution facility for $70 million, or approximately $170 per foot for the 412,248-square-foot property on June 27, 2019. Built in 1980, Turkey Hill leased back the property for 25 years; the lease is triple net, with annual escalations. The buyer reported a weighted average cap rate of 7.1% for their acquisitions for the quarter, which totaled approximately $123.5 million, indicating this was probably priced in the 6s as the largest acquisition. The site was described as mission critical for the tenant, which has invested in many additions and improvements. It was noted that the site is powered through clean energy sources including wind turbines and hydroelectric energy. Turkey Hill had been a division of Kroger, but was sold earlier in the year to Peak Rock Capital.

21 Roadway Drive – (Cumberland County)

On September 26, 2019, Global Logistics Properties Ltd sold the class B industrial facility for $53.5 million, or $96 per square foot. The buyer was Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust. The 558,700 square-foot industrial facility was built on 36.16-acre site with an 8-acre pad site available to be developed into a 150,000 SF facility. The sale is comprised of an industrial portfolio totaling 64 million SF that Blackstone Real Estate Income Trust acquired located throughout the U.S. The sales price was reported at $5.3 billion. The portfolio was 95% leased at the time of the sale. The sale is part of a larger transaction in which Blackstone Real Estate Partners fund acquired 115 million SF for $13.4 billion; therefore, the overall sales price was reported at $18.7 billion for 179 million SF among two translations.

RETAIL

950 Walnut Bottom Road – Stonehedge Square Shopping Center (Cumberland County)

On November 25, 2019, this 88,657 square foot Giant anchored grocery center was sold for $30.7 million, or $346 per square foot to RW Partners, Inc.

2547 Brindle Drive – Shoppes At Susquehanna Marketplace (Dauphin County)

On April 1, 2019, The Shoppes at Susquehanna Marketplace in Harrisburg, PA were sold to an individual investor for $33.5 million, or $305 per square foot. The 110,000-square-foot shopping center was completed in 2004 and about 98% occupied by 25 tenants at the time of the sale. It was previously owned by a joint venture between Clarion Partners and Bayer Properties. The property was initially listed in January 2019 with an asking price of $38.17 million.

235-295 Cumberland Parkway – Parkway Plaza Shopping Center (Cumberland County)

On November 25, 2019, this 82,599 square foot Giant anchored grocery center was sold for $22.3 million or $270 per square foot. Parkway Plaza and Stonehedge Square (see #1) were part of a portfolio of Giant supermarket-anchored shopping centers in mid-to eastern Pennsylvania sold to RW Partners, Inc. for $127,000,000. The Giant grocery stores make up approximately 75% of this portfolio’s gross leasable area generate 80% of the portfolio’s revenue.

903-905 Loucks Road – Two Guys Commons (York County)

On August 19, 2019, Urban Edge Properties sold Two Guys Commons to Vastgood Properties, LLC for $13.15 million, or about $119 per square foot. At the time of the sale, the 110,980-square-foot retail property was fully leased to five tenants which included Crunch Fitness, Aldi, Ashley Furniture HomeStore, Tractor Supply, and Old Country Buffet. Based on in-place NOI, the transaction yielded a cap rate of about 7.5%.

OFFICE

100 Crystal A Drive – The Hershey Company (Dauphin County)

The three class B office buildings totaling 239,089 SF were sold on December 2, 2019 to the Penn State Medical Group for $28,445,835. Built in 1991, the buildings were sold by The Hershey Company for $118.98 per square foot. The seller was motivated to sell the property as they moved their operation into their corporate headquarters. The buildings will serve as Penn State Health headquarters and allow for moving some personnel from the Hershey Medical Center campus, creating space there to allow for expanded clinical services. Penn State Health leased office space in 2017 at that time The Hershey Company gave option purchase rights to the building. Penn State Health exercised their option to purchase the building.

425 N. 21^st Street – Plaza 21 (Cumberland County)

This 62,304 SF class B Office Building sold on September 16, 2019 to J & R Investments, Inc. for $9,300,000. Built in 1970 and renovated in 2009, this building was sold by Select Capital Commercial Properties for $149.27 per square foot. The building is leased to primarily to Geisinger System Services.

2400 Thea Drive – Synertech Building (Dauphin County)

On December 2nd, 2019, Istar Harrisburg LP sold the building in Harrisburg PA, to Real Capital Solutions, Inc for $9,100,000 or approximately $43.94 per square foot. The subject property is a 207,115, four-story class B office building located at 2400 Thea Dr in Harrisburg, PA 17110. The building sits on a 10.62-acre lot. It was constructed in 1999.

305 N. Front Street – (Dauphin County)

On July 17, 2019, this 120,000 SF office property was sold by Harrisburg Riverfront Development to Select Capital Commercial Properties for $7,950,000 or $65 per square foot. Built in 1989, this property sits on 1.2 acres

Closing Thoughts

In Central Pennsylvania and across the nation, it’s fair to say that the commercial real estate market delivered its fair share of ups and downs. Now that we’ve taken a closer look at the largest industrial, retail and office real estate sales of 2019, there are a few interesting points worth noting in each sector.

Industrial – Industrial real estate continues to lead all other real estate sectors with $1.2 billion in sales volume in 2019. The average price was $56.80 per square-foot, with the average property selling for $7.15 million.

Retail – A total of $200 million was invested in Central PA’s retail real estate market in 2019, a decrease from 2018. The average sale price was $142 per square foot.

Office – Annual volume levels for Central PA’s office real estate market stayed consistent with 2018 with $270 million in total sales. The average office property sold for $1.16 million. The average sales price was $102 per square foot.

What do you feel is the most important or interesting trend to emerge from the largest commercial real estate sales to take place in Central Pennsylvania in 2019? Share your thoughts by commenting below.

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Why Banks are Cutting Back on Commercial Real Estate Lending

Posted on January 17, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Commercial real estate lending, the bread-and-butter business for many smaller and regional banks, could further decrease in 2020. The cause is a combination of a few different factors – intense competition from non-bank lenders and rising delinquency rates to name a few. Mortgage lending is also predicted to be impacted by rising interest rates and tight housing supplies in many major markets.

This trend is not new, but rather has been slowly creeping in for years. In 2017, U.S. banks reported that demand for commercial real estate loans weakened in the second quarter, though foreign banks reported strengthened demand. Furthermore, loan growth slowed to 4.2 percent in 2018, down from 5.6 percent in 2017, according to bank call reports and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data.

Why exactly are banks cutting back on commercial real estate lending? And should this call for concern that a potential economic downturn is in the near future?

Rory Ritrievi, President and CEO of Mid Penn Bank

To lend some expertise on this topic, Omni Realty Group turned to Rory Ritrievi. Rory has more than three decades of experience in banking, specifically in Pennsylvania. For the last 11 years, Rory has served as President and CEO of Mid Penn Bank. Under his direction, the bank has grown from $550 million in assets and 14 retail locations to over $2 billion in assets and 39 retail locations.

Throughout his banking career, Rory has gained deep insight into when and why banks provide commercial real estate loans – and when they do not. Let’s learn what he thinks is going on in the current market, and the pending economic impact.

Omni Realty: How has commercial lending changed in the last 5 years?

RR: In the last 5-10 years, we have seen, for the most part, a return to credit fundamentals that seem to have been abandoned in the years leading up to the Great Recession. Back then it seemed like almost any deal made sense to Bankers. Now, the focus has been returned to analysis of absorption rates, discounted cash flows, borrower experience, reasonable cap rates, and strength of guarantors.

Omni Realty: In your opinion, what are the main causes of these changes?

RR: Losses. Loan losses of 2008-2012 gave a renewed focus to bankers on the true meaning of credit fundamentals.

Omni Realty: What changes would need to take place in the commercial estate market, or economy as a whole, to further improve commercial lending?

RR: Lenders need to evolve their underwriting and analytics to keep up with the evolving demographics. Baby Boomers are aging out so there is a need for more senior housing, multifamily rentals, luxury apartments, and assisted living. Additionally, high student loan balances are making the need for affordable housing in urban areas more prevalent. There is also a growing focus on renewable energy and green spaces. Finally, work from home is more prevalent which challenges the demand for traditional office space. When we look to retail, the shift toward online decreases the demand for mall space, while increasing demand for warehouse space. And we can’t overlook technology. Bankers need to not only know about emerging technology that stands to impact the market, but they must embrace it as a highly valuable tool to help them “keep up.”

Omni Realty: What do you anticipate the trend to be for commercial lending in 2020?

RR: In my opinion, 2020 will be a positive year in the lending business, particularly in Central Pennsylvania. We are in a good credit cycle and the interest rate yield curve is in decent shape compared to last year. There are geopolitical issues such as the impact of the general election, instability in the Middle East, and trade with China but I do not believe any of those issues will halt the progress of our local economy in 2020. Challenge it, yes and maybe slow it a bit, but not halt it entirely.

Omni Realty Group thanks Rory for sharing this valuable information and helping us to further understand the factors impacting how banks view commercial lending. Though banks are, for the most part, treading lightly in the market since the Great Recession, it’s encouraging to hear their renewed commitment to credit fundamentals, and helping both individuals and businesses make well-educated lending decisions.

Amidst a year that will no doubt bring change, it’s important we remain aware of the lasting impact factors such as elections and geopolitical issues may bring to our economy, both immediately and for years to come. Rory provides sound reason as to why we should not fear such changes, but rather maintain confidence in the banking economy, particularly here in Central Pennsylvania.

Do you agree with these insights, or have others to share? We welcome your feedback in the comments below!

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Central PA’s Growth in Commercial Construction Creating Workforce Challenges

Posted on December 19, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Construction, Local Market, Trends No Comments

With new commercial construction projects popping up all across Central Pennsylvania, it may appear as though it’s a great time to be in the industry. A demand for more commercial construction usually means businesses are growing or moving into the area, bringing with them jobs and economic growth. But there’s one looming challenge that stands in the way of this growth having only upside, and that’s the lack of commercial construction workers to take on this work.

According to Commercial Observer, this workforce challenge is not limited to the Central Pennsylvania region. Rather it’s a nationwide issue that could have wide-spread impact. A serious gap exists between the upcoming demand for labor and the number of available workers with the skills needed to fill those positions.

How does this gap in skilled laborers stand to impact the commercial real estate construction industry? And what, if any, solutions exist? For further input on this issue, Omni Realty Group turned to Dave Sload, President and CEO of ABC Keystone.

ABC Keystone was established in 1959 with the mission of advancing and defending the principles of free enterprise in the construction industry. Today, the organization is a powerhouse with 69 chapters and over 21,000 members. It is one of the leading organizations representing America’s business community and the construction industry.

“The construction industry is already in a critical state when it comes to finding skilled workers. They simply are not out there and it is forcing companies to pass on some projects,” says Sload.

Commercial construction companies being stretched so thin on labor that they decline work illustrates the severity of the labor shortage and the ominous threat it poses on the industry. The real struggle is construction spending is not predicted to subside. In fact, growth over the next two years is substantial.

According to FMI’s 2019 Industry Outlook, total construction spending in the Mid-Atlantic region, which includes Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey, should increase 5 percent year over year, from $153.6 billion to $161.3 billion. It is predicted that this trend will hold in coming years, with anticipated spending increasing at a rate of 4.5 percent between now and 2022.

Combine this with the fact that the construction industry unemployment has dropped to an 18-year low, and you have the recipe for a sustained labor shortage that will lead to higher labor costs, longer project schedules, and inevitably quality and safety issues that will result from understaffed crew and under-qualified workers.

Sload adds, “Things will only get worse in the future. 40% of the construction workforce will retire over the next ten years. It will not be just the skilled workers we lose but also decades of institutional knowledge.”

Construction jobs are a cornerstone of our local economy, with thousands of well-paying jobs created every year. The latest job openings data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggests that since 2014, while the number of jobs openings has almost doubled, the number of hires has increased by just 14 percent. This underlines the fact that it is not a lack of jobs, but a lack of laborers to hire for such jobs.

Sload continues, “If that is not enough, this country is in desperate need of infrastructure legislation to update our highways, airports, wastewater treatment plants and water systems. Should an infrastructure bill pass in the range of what has been proposed, we would immediately be another 500,000 skilled workers short.”

All of this begs the question, “What is the solution?” Construction business owners and other hiring entities have started exploring all viable options for employing and retaining qualified workers. Possibilities include increasing and improving recruiting efforts; retaining qualified workers during periods of slow work so they are more readily available; investing in skills training and continued education programs; and working harder to nurture internal talent, especially to retain institutional knowledge.

While none of these solutions may be the “silver bullet” the industry needs right now, it’s evidence that the issue is not being ignored, and companies are willing to get creative and collaborative with whatever combination of solutions prove to move the needle.

Have you felt the impact of workforce challenges, either personally or within your business? Or do you have a different opinion as to how the commercial construction industry may address this issue?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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4 Reasons Why 2019 Was a Great Year for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

For various reasons, 2019 proved to be a year of advancement and change. This was the year that the driverless revolution finally hit the road, China accomplished the first landing on the far side of the moon, and many other social and political issues advanced. We also lost legends like Doris Day and Karl Lagerfeld.

Beyond the tech, science, social, and political advancements, there were many other industries that were significantly shaped by 2019. Particularly for commercial real estate, there are four things that took place this year that changed the CRE industry for the better. Here’s why 2019 should be considered a great year for commercial real estate.

Low Interest Rates

An increased capital flow in the U.S. has helped to keep interest rates low despite an optimistic economic outlook. Additionally, the Federal Reserve issued three rate cuts in 2019, twice amid trade tensions with China. Economists predict that interest rates will remain low by historical standards for at least the near term. Additionally, multifamily originations are projected to hit an all-time high in 2020.

Despite the dip in mortgage rates, cap rates have stayed relatively flat, at 5.6% during the first half of 2019. Cap rates across all major segments, except for the retail sector, which has seen some cap rate expansion, have been largely unaffected by interest rate fluctuations and remain a favorable asset class. It’s expected that the hunt for yield will continue to drive more capital into real estate acquisitions in the near future.

Good GDP Growth

The United States kicked off 2019 with growth of 3.1% in the first quarter, the growth then slowed into second quarter. Ultimately GDP growth went on to exceed what was initially expected in the third quarter. The economy expanded by 2.1% between July and September, more than the initial reading of 1.9%, and more than the 2% growth rate in the second quarter. The last time it grew at a pace of less than 2% was in the final quarter of 2018.

Manufacturing, both in the U.S. and globally, was hit hard by the on-going trade war with China. On top of that, the positive effects from the 2017 tax reform (see below), which gave the economy a boost, also tapered off this year. Though economists are still expecting economic growth to slow further in the near-term, that slowdown appears to be more modest than initially expected

2017 Tax Reform*
It has been expressed that commercial real estate was the real “winner” of the tax reform of 2017. The new tax benefits these changes brought to commercial real estate investing include:

Individual tax rate – The tax changes made in 2017 included tax rate cuts across the board with corporate rates being slashed to 21% (which received most of the publicity). The individual rate reductions were not as dramatic, but do provide relief especially with the wider tax brackets.
Depreciation – The 2017 tax reform brought back 100% bonus depreciation through 2022, meaning the cost may be fully expensed in the year placed in service for qualifying property.
Interest expense limitation – As part of the 2017 tax reform, there is a new limitation that restricts the ability to deduct interest expense in certain situations. Fortunately, commercial real estate should not be impacted in most scenarios. The deduction for interest expense is limited to 30% of taxable income before interest, depreciation and amortization deductions.
Like-kind exchanges – Fortunately, the impact on like-kind exchanges on commercial real estate was minimal. Real property for real property exchanges are still allowed, meaning there is not a requirement to exchange into the same asset type. Meaning an apartment complex can be exchanged into a commercial property.
Tax-exempt Taxpayers – For tax years starting after January 1, 2018, losses from any CRE investment activity are only allowed to offset income or gains from that activity. Though this will likely accelerate tax liabilities for tax-exempt investors that have multiple investments generating unrelated business income, they can protect themselves by using an IRA to make additional investments in commercial real estate.

*The full details of the 2017 tax reformed are quite complex and beyond the scope of this article. As always, investors are encouraged to discuss the potential impact of this limitation with their tax advisor.

Low Unemployment

Historically low unemployment rates were an earmark of 2019. Contributing to this was a boom in CRE construction which created an increased demand for commercial construction workers. To put the current state of real estate growth into perspective, demand over the past five years has exceeded housing inventory by 1.4 million units, and vacancies are at their lowest levels since 1984. All of this demand for more real estate creates a demand for new construction, and more construction workers to complete it.

While (most) growth is a good thing, there’s a flip side to every coin. The nationwide shortage of construction workers posed significant challenges for the commercial construction industry, including struggles to meet deadlines, raised costs to complete projects, and firms having to ask their existing skilled laborers to do more work. While there is no quick solution to resolve this in the near-future, those in the field are making efforts to resolve the problem while keeping their CRE projects on deadline.

What Can We Expect In 2020?

The commercial real estate industry has benefited from the unusually long length of the current expansion cycle. But more than 10 years in, while growth in many fundamentals has slowed, the cycle marches on. Many experts believe we’ve entered a new kind of cycle marked by prolonged periods of low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates. Such an environment would prove favorable for continued stability in the commercial real estate sector for the foreseeable future.

Which of these four changes in 2019 do you believe to be most powerful? How will any of these also impact your industry? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment.

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Beyond the Bio with Mark Disanto from Triple Crown

Posted on October 21, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Guest Blogger No Comments

For more than four decades, Triple Crown Corporation has shaped Pennsylvania real estate through construction, land acquisition, and residential and commercial property management. The company has built an impressive portfolio of properties ranging from warehouses, office and retail space, rental communities, and even vacant lots that can be developed into just about anything to need.

At the heart of Triple Crown Corporation is its people. As part of the senior leadership team, Mark Disanto, the company’s CEO offers valuable insight into the industry, and the vision for the company. Mark has built a successful career from a blend of hard work, knowledge, and experience. But beyond his professional resume, there is a lot we can learn from Mark on a more personal level.

Take a look as Omni Realty Group goes “beyond the bio” and asks Mark for answers to questions you’re not likely to read on his Linkedin profile.

Omni: Describe a “typical” work day for you.

Mark Disanto: A typical day for me starts around 5:30 or 6:00 AM. I either exercise at home or play tennis in the morning. I am usually at the office between 7:00 and 8:00 AM and very rarely leave before 6:00 PM. Throw in a couple nighttime meetings with municipalities and extra time on Saturdays and in the evenings and the work week is usually 60 to 70 hours.

Omni: What is the best part of your job?

Mark Disanto: I have great flexibility in my job. I have time in the office. I have time inspecting job sites and looking at new acquisitions. I like the flexibility. However, the best part of my job is watching the company grow and seeing the new leadership expand the company both in the property management and construction divisions as well as our geographical footprint.

Omni: What has been the most difficult part of your job?

Mark Disanto: The continued regulation of our industry is probably the most troublesome and difficult part of our business. There are so many regulations in the building codes, the land development and subdivision codes, other state permitting processes, as well as federal regulations. None of these take into account the reasonableness of the burdens placed upon the builder and developer, cost versus benefit and time delays. We continue to hear about a shortage of affordable housing and the reason for this is strictly due to the regulatory environment we live in today.

Omni: If your career never took you into real estate, what else would you likely be doing?

Mark Disanto: I would probably be on Wall Street running a hedge fund and giving Ray Dalio a run for his money.

Omni: What has been your favorite Triple Crown project, and why?

Mark Disanto: I think I have two. The first was done about 17 years ago in Silver Spring Township. Georgetown Crossing was our first large apartment community containing 400 townhome and flat stack apartments. It is a beautiful property off route 114 in Silver Spring Township and our premier community. We still own it and will probably never sell it.

More recently Blue Ridge Village tops the list. This is an exciting mixed use community in lower Paxton Township that combines retail, commercial, apartments, townhomes and single-family homes along with a 32 acre park. This is a true livable, walkable community. The approval process was collaborative and respectful of the community and the Township. It took a lot of effort on our part, but I can assure the residents that this will be a premiere community that will significantly enhance the township.

Omni: What project has been your biggest failure or disappointment?

Mark Disanto: We bought a property out of market about 20 years ago at an auction and did not have sufficient due diligence completed upon it. When we went to the township for the first time it was like walking into a hornets’ nest. We eventually decided to cut our losses and re-sold the ground at auction for a loss. Out of the hundreds of developments and projects that we have done, we’ve only lost money on two deals. We are pretty proud of this.

Omni: What motivates you?

Mark Disanto: I just like to be engaged and like to see the company and the employees succeed. We set our strategy for three-year time frames and have quarterly meetings with our strategy review team and make sure we are all rowing the ship in the same direction. When everybody has purpose and they are all heading to the same goal line and supporting one another along the way, it makes for a very fun journey. I don’t need to work as hard as I do, I just have too much enjoyment with it to slow down.

Omni: Do you have any pet peeves?

Mark Disanto: I don’t think so. I get very frustrated when my volleys are not crisp on the tennis court!

Omni: When you’re not in the office, where can you most likely be found?

Mark Disanto: When I am in Harrisburg, it is usually with the family which includes the five grandkids, or working around the house and in the garden in the summertime, or in a tree stand in the fall trying to find the elusive big buck, or on the tennis court 2 to 4 days a week. If out of Harrisburg it could be anywhere in the world!

Omni: And finally, what career advice would you give to your younger self?

Mark Disanto: I would say, do not doubt your abilities. If you have an idea you want to execute then write it down and write a plan on how to achieve it. Review the plan both upstream and downstream with your staff. If you don’t have a staff, take it to people you respect and really try to poke holes in it. Once it’s well vetted, then work diligently and hard at it. A lot of people say this person was “lucky.” That’s usually not the case; a lot of strategic thought and hard work creates what people call luck.

Omni Realty Group thanks Mark for such candid and thoughtful answers to these questions. There is a lot of inspiration that can be found “beyond the bio” and on a more personal level. You can learn more about Triple Crown Corporation and its services by visiting them at https://www.triplecrowncorp.com or on Facebook and Twitter @TripleCrownCorp.

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uBreakiFix Opens New Retail Space with the Help of Omni Realty

Posted on October 2, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

At Omni Realty Group, it’s our passion to work with Central Pennsylvania businesses to help them find the right commercial space where they can thrive. One of our recent clients, uBreakiFix, provides a perfect example of how working with a tenant representative, like Omni, will have a big impact on the searching, negotiating, and commercial leasing process. Here’s how James McNeil, owner of uBreakiFix in Mechanicsburg came to find a new home for his business with Omni’s assistance.

About the Business

First, let’s learn a little bit more about the business and its retail needs. uBreakiFix fixes electronic devices. From the all-too-common phone drop in the parking lot to the tablet in the toilet, they’ve fixed just about every drop, slip, trip, and fumble you can envision. Those suffering the “trauma” of a broken electronic device, can walk into uBreakiFix and seek repair right on the spot – often in under one hour.

When looking for the right retail location, James knew he needed a space with high visibility and drive-by traffic. Ideally, the store would have other stores or attractions nearby where customers could browse or relax while their device was being fixed. Finally, the location needed to hit the right demographic of uBreakiFix’s target market.

Search and Struggle…then Success!

James started on his search solo. He poured hours of his time into researching possible locations. And after spending even more time touring many different properties, he came up empty handed. Fortunately, James reached out to Omni Realty Group and Mike Kushner became his tenant representative to help him in his search. Within a couple of weeks, Mike found what would become the business’s future home.

Located at 4957 Carlisle Pike, Mechanicsburg, this retail space met all of the “must haves” on James’s list. The store is part of the newly built Hampden Shops Plaza on the Carlisle Pike, one of the area’s most heavily trafficked roads for retail shopping. Within the plaza, there are places to eat, shop, get your hair cut, and much more. Rite Aid and CVS are within walking distance as well. Best of all, since it was a new space, uBreakiFix could really make it their own, by influencing the interior layout and décor.

Life Takes Compromise

The number one benefit of this space, and ultimately why James knew it was the right spot for his business, was location. It put him exactly where he wanted to be – visibility, traffic, and target market. But with anything, there was a compromise. The price point for the space was at the top of James’s budget. With Mike’s help, they negotiated this to a fair and reasonable rate that was consistent with other pricing in the area. Ultimately this was a compromise James was willing to make, considering all the other benefits of the space that would put them in the best possible position to grow.

The Difference of Having a Tent Representative

In his own words, James describes his experience working with Omni Realty Group:

“Mike did the research on the area and provided all of the relevant data to make the best decision for us. He got me in front of decision makers for the properties we look at and helped negotiate the lease payment to get the deal done. From a personal experience, it would have taken me a lot longer to find a location, as I was looking for retail space for four months, with no success, prior to working with Mike.”

Valuable Lessons Learned

If James had to go through this process again, there are valuable lesson he would apply to his next search for retail space. Here are four things he feels every business should know:

Start the process with a tenant representative by your side. This alone will save you so much time, and in the end, money.
Do not jump on the first option presented to you. Continue to explore even just a few more options and then fully compare pros and cons.
Always negotiate.
Compromise is necessary, but make sure you do not compromise on something that is most important to you.

If your business is looking for new retail, office, or industrial space in Central Pennsylvania, please reach out today so Omni Realty Group can help you like we helped uBreakiFix.

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The Red Flags of an Unfavorable Commercial Real Estate Lease

Posted on September 9, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

As a tenant needing commercial real estate space to run your business, it can be challenging to navigate the many twists and turns of finding the right space and entering into a favorable lease agreement. Your lease with your landlord can have a large impact on the success of your business, or it could cause many headaches. To ensure you’re entering into a fair and favorable agreement, let’s look at some of the most common red flags that can pop up in a commercial real estate lease.

Term of Lease – One of the most important pieces in a commercial real estate lease, short of the price, is the duration of the lease and how it’s structured. You want to be sure you fully understand when your lease begins and when it ends, especially when the landlord is making improvements to the space. A landlord may provide more favorable pricing or terms when entering into a lease that has a longer duration. While this is helpful from a budget perspective, be sure you feel confident that you will want to stay in this space for that amount of time.

Lease Renewal – Another possible red flag in a commercial real estate lease is when and how the lease will renew. When your current lease comes to an end, a landlord may desire the lease to auto-renew. As a tenant, you will want to be aware of this well in advance so that if you do not want to renew your lease you have options to exit the lease. Additionally, look to see if the lease specifies a change in price upon renewal. Sometimes there will be an increase that could hit you unexpectedly.

Lease Termination – Next, be sure you know the terms and penalties for breaking a lease. While it may not be your intentions to break the lease early, various factors impacting your need for the space could make it necessary. If the Lease imposes a steep monetary penalty for breaking the lease early, you may wish to negotiate that down to more favorable (and reasonable) terms.

Environmental Considerations – Some commercial real estate leases may specify that a tenant may not store any hazardous materials on the premises. This is not typically an issue; however, you will want to be sure that included in the lease is a warranty from the landlord that the premises are free of such hazardous materials. In a situation where you plan to use the commercial space (such as a warehouse) for storage of consumables (i.e., food and drinks), you may want assurance that your inventory is not likely to be contaminated.

Insurance – Be sure to check the required minimum coverages for a tenant’s liability insurance. Typical coverage minimums are $1 million per occurrence and $3 million in the aggregate. If the lease specifies higher minimums at a price that is concerning, you will want to make this part of your negotiations before signing the lease.

Maintenance – A commercial real estate lease should outline who is responsible for the repairs and maintenance of all building systems, including HVAC, electrical and plumbing. Should the lease place the responsibility on the tenant, you may wish to renegotiate this. In a situation where the tenant is only leasing a small percentage of the overall building space, it’s unusual for the tenant to assume the costs of repair and maintenance for things that impact more than their rented space.

Defaulting – Closely review the language in the lease regarding missed or delayed rent payments. It is reasonable to request at least one written notice during any 12-month period (to account for a reasonable mistake), as well as a 5-day grace period for rent payments.

Relocation – Some commercial real estate leases may include a section about relocation. Does this grant the landlord the right to relocate the tenant? Under what terms? Pay attention to this piece as it could greatly inconvenience you, if it ever takes place.

While this is by no means an exhaustive list of red flags of which you must be aware when entering a commercial real estate lease, this should provide a great starting point. What’s most important is to review every document closely, ask for clarification, and seek professional tenant representation early in the process. Having an exclusive tenant representative on your side will provide an added layer of knowledge, experience, and protection that will put you in the best position to negotiate a fair and favorable lease.

Do you have a question related to your commercial real estate lease? Reach out to Omni Realty today so we can help you find an answer!

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