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How Commercial Tenants Can Negotiate Rent Relief During COVID-19

Posted on June 18, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Our world remains in a global pandemic and there is a long road to economic recovery. Seemingly overnight, our ways of working, living and playing drastically changed, and we were forced to sustain these changes for weeks and months on end. As a result, businesses closed their doors to the public, some temporarily and some permanently. This has led to the sudden need for these businesses to shed, or at least reduce, their commercial real estate overhead.

Think of it this way. When a business agrees to a rent amount, it does so with the expectation that it will have a certain level of income. All those expectations were upended with COVID-19, as many businesses have been forced to fully close for months or significantly reduce their use of their commercial space. Even though offices, restaurants, and stores are starting to reopen, their capacity for employees and customers — and, therefore, for revenue —remain diminished, making rent renegotiation necessary for staying afloat.

It’s important for commercial tenants who have lost the use of their spaces as a result COVID-19 to understand what options might exist for them to favorably negotiate some form of rent relief from their landlords. Take a look as we examine the key steps any commercial tenant or business owner should take when venturing down the path of lease negotiation.

Know the terms of your current lease.

Start with closely reviewing your current lease. What are the terms, conditions, and pricing you originally agreed to? What does it say about lease negotiations or early termination? Does it give conditions for if and when this would be considered? In order for your lease negotiation to be most effective, you must come armed with all the information related to your lease, and your leasing experience. Upon reviewing your lease, make note of the most important details and write or type those out on paper so that you can have it with you during your conversation. This will help to keep these details top of mind and easily accessible.

Seek representation and advice.

One of the most important things you can do is seek the representation and advice of a commercial tenant representative. This person is different than a real estate agent in that they exclusive represent the rights and interests of commercial tenants, not landlords. A tenant representative, like Omni Realty Group, would help review your current lease, advise you of your best plan for negotiating more favorable lease terms or even an early termination, and represent you at the meeting with your landlord. This not only provides peace of mind, but it gives you the best potential for a favorable outcome.

Be direct and professional with your request.

Schedule a meeting with your landlord and be direct that it’s to discuss your current lease terms. In your meeting, be clear and professional with your communication. Present your plan for new lease terms or early termination just like you would present a product or service to a client or customer. You want to sell your landlord on your plan; therefore, you need to make it clear why he or she should “buy” it.

Back your position with facts and data.

You can expect that your landlord will have questions and rebuttal. Why should he or she grant you new lease terms that are likely more favorable to you than they are to the landlord? Come armed with facts and data that support your plan. And also speak from a point of reason. Explain how your business was impacted by COVID-19. What were your losses or layoffs? How long were your doors closed to customers? And also look to other cities or states where possibly new laws are coming into place to offer rent relief for commercial real estate. This is taking place in California where a new bill, if it becomes law, allows businesses, particularly bars and restaurants, to terminate their lease agreements. While this may not be a law in your state, it’s worth discussing with your landlord how other places are approaching this difficult topic for perspective.

Finally, it’s worthwhile to research and consider how certain lease clauses could play in your favor and back up your position. Force majeure is a common clause in contracts that essentially frees both parties from liability or obligation when an extraordinary event or circumstance beyond the control of the parties, like COVID-19, takes place. There is also the frustration of purpose doctrine, which comes into play when an unforeseen event undermines a party’s principal purpose for entering into a contract, such as how COVID-19 left many businesses without the need or ability to use their commercial space. And these are just a few examples. Upon more research and seeking legal counsel, there may be additional clauses and doctrines that could protect you in this situation.

Present the benefits of both parties.

Sure, the benefit to your business is clear. Shortening your lease terms or negotiating lower rent for less space will help your business stay afloat financially and shed overhead that is no longer needed as a result of COVID-19. Be sure to also make it clear what could be in the deal for your landlord. Could you recommend a new tenant, such as another business you know? Could you negotiate taking less space rather than leaving the building completely? Or could you reduce the length of your lease, but not terminate it immediately? Another option, if it’s of value to your landlord, is leaving behind desks, chairs, and other office furniture so that the space can be offered as fully furnished to new tenants.

Prioritize what’s most important, and be flexible with the rest.

Go into your discussion with your landlord knowing what you absolutely must accomplish in order for your lease to be sustainable for your business. Maybe this must be lower rent costs, or maybe you need to downsize your space. Try to pick your one most important thing, and then be prepared to make some concessions in other areas. If your landlord is willing to terminate your lease early, he or she may ask to keep your security deposit, or charge for one more month of rent. Or maybe they’re willing to let you downsize your space, but they need you to move to a different floor or location because it makes it more feasible for them to rent out other space. Be willing to listen and to negotiate.

Remember that you have options and support.

Omni Realty Group is working hard to address the ever-changing needs of businesses that have been impacted by COVID-19 and now need to rethink their commercial real estate leases. We want to help be a part of the solution. With the right strategy and presentation of your proposed changes to your lease, it’s reasonable and possible to find a favorable outcome with your landlord. Keep in mind that landlords have also been impacted by COVID-19 in ways you might not imagine. The right tenant representative can help guide you through the complexities of negotiating rent relief, share the most current updates on how they and/or others are addressing similar challenges, and provide the necessary thought leadership to help you make informed decisions.

Has COVID-19 impacted your business’s need for and use of its commercial real estate space? Are you considering asking for new lease terms as a result? If you have a question or need assistance, don’t hesitate to contact Omni Realty Group, Central Pennsylvania’s exclusive commercial tenant representative today.

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4 Reasons Why 2019 Was a Great Year for Commercial Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

For various reasons, 2019 proved to be a year of advancement and change. This was the year that the driverless revolution finally hit the road, China accomplished the first landing on the far side of the moon, and many other social and political issues advanced. We also lost legends like Doris Day and Karl Lagerfeld.

Beyond the tech, science, social, and political advancements, there were many other industries that were significantly shaped by 2019. Particularly for commercial real estate, there are four things that took place this year that changed the CRE industry for the better. Here’s why 2019 should be considered a great year for commercial real estate.

Low Interest Rates

An increased capital flow in the U.S. has helped to keep interest rates low despite an optimistic economic outlook. Additionally, the Federal Reserve issued three rate cuts in 2019, twice amid trade tensions with China. Economists predict that interest rates will remain low by historical standards for at least the near term. Additionally, multifamily originations are projected to hit an all-time high in 2020.

Despite the dip in mortgage rates, cap rates have stayed relatively flat, at 5.6% during the first half of 2019. Cap rates across all major segments, except for the retail sector, which has seen some cap rate expansion, have been largely unaffected by interest rate fluctuations and remain a favorable asset class. It’s expected that the hunt for yield will continue to drive more capital into real estate acquisitions in the near future.

Good GDP Growth

The United States kicked off 2019 with growth of 3.1% in the first quarter, the growth then slowed into second quarter. Ultimately GDP growth went on to exceed what was initially expected in the third quarter. The economy expanded by 2.1% between July and September, more than the initial reading of 1.9%, and more than the 2% growth rate in the second quarter. The last time it grew at a pace of less than 2% was in the final quarter of 2018.

Manufacturing, both in the U.S. and globally, was hit hard by the on-going trade war with China. On top of that, the positive effects from the 2017 tax reform (see below), which gave the economy a boost, also tapered off this year. Though economists are still expecting economic growth to slow further in the near-term, that slowdown appears to be more modest than initially expected

2017 Tax Reform*
It has been expressed that commercial real estate was the real “winner” of the tax reform of 2017. The new tax benefits these changes brought to commercial real estate investing include:

Individual tax rate – The tax changes made in 2017 included tax rate cuts across the board with corporate rates being slashed to 21% (which received most of the publicity). The individual rate reductions were not as dramatic, but do provide relief especially with the wider tax brackets.
Depreciation – The 2017 tax reform brought back 100% bonus depreciation through 2022, meaning the cost may be fully expensed in the year placed in service for qualifying property.
Interest expense limitation – As part of the 2017 tax reform, there is a new limitation that restricts the ability to deduct interest expense in certain situations. Fortunately, commercial real estate should not be impacted in most scenarios. The deduction for interest expense is limited to 30% of taxable income before interest, depreciation and amortization deductions.
Like-kind exchanges – Fortunately, the impact on like-kind exchanges on commercial real estate was minimal. Real property for real property exchanges are still allowed, meaning there is not a requirement to exchange into the same asset type. Meaning an apartment complex can be exchanged into a commercial property.
Tax-exempt Taxpayers – For tax years starting after January 1, 2018, losses from any CRE investment activity are only allowed to offset income or gains from that activity. Though this will likely accelerate tax liabilities for tax-exempt investors that have multiple investments generating unrelated business income, they can protect themselves by using an IRA to make additional investments in commercial real estate.

*The full details of the 2017 tax reformed are quite complex and beyond the scope of this article. As always, investors are encouraged to discuss the potential impact of this limitation with their tax advisor.

Low Unemployment

Historically low unemployment rates were an earmark of 2019. Contributing to this was a boom in CRE construction which created an increased demand for commercial construction workers. To put the current state of real estate growth into perspective, demand over the past five years has exceeded housing inventory by 1.4 million units, and vacancies are at their lowest levels since 1984. All of this demand for more real estate creates a demand for new construction, and more construction workers to complete it.

While (most) growth is a good thing, there’s a flip side to every coin. The nationwide shortage of construction workers posed significant challenges for the commercial construction industry, including struggles to meet deadlines, raised costs to complete projects, and firms having to ask their existing skilled laborers to do more work. While there is no quick solution to resolve this in the near-future, those in the field are making efforts to resolve the problem while keeping their CRE projects on deadline.

What Can We Expect In 2020?

The commercial real estate industry has benefited from the unusually long length of the current expansion cycle. But more than 10 years in, while growth in many fundamentals has slowed, the cycle marches on. Many experts believe we’ve entered a new kind of cycle marked by prolonged periods of low growth, low inflation, and low interest rates. Such an environment would prove favorable for continued stability in the commercial real estate sector for the foreseeable future.

Which of these four changes in 2019 do you believe to be most powerful? How will any of these also impact your industry? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment.

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Considering a Commercial Real Estate Investment Property? Read This First!

Posted on November 26, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Investing in commercial real estate can be one of the most lucrative real estate investments you can make. Investors can realize extraordinary capital gains and huge cash flow wins. On the flip side, there can be quite a drastically different outcome when your CRE investment properties sustain long vacancies or big drops in market value.

For many reasons, investing in commercial real estate can be higher risk than other types of real estate investments. This is why it’s so important to be well versed with its nuances and trends – or to have a trusted advisor who is. To put yourself in the best position for a favorable return on your investment, there are certain things anyone thinking about investing in commercial real estate should know. Here is a brief overview of the things you should think about to determine if investing in commercial real estate is right for you.

Start with a Solid Plan

Before you embark on any big undertaking, you should always begin with a plan. The same is just as true for commercial real estate investments. Before investing your hard-earned cash or equity in a commercial property, you should first have a proper investment plan in place that fully equips you to identify the right property for your portfolio. Without a framework to guide your decisions, you may make the mistake of buying a property on impulse or out of pressure from others, even when it really doesn’t fit your goals for long-term strategy, risk mitigation, capital growth and, cash flow.

Understand the Time Required to See a Return

Next, do your research to gain an understanding of a realistic time frame to see a return. Many new investors dive into things thinking they’ll surely see a return in a fraction of the time it will really take to fully develop the investment and make it profitable. Pulling out too early can mean losing a substantial part of your investment, so be sure you plan for the appropriate amount of time that your money may be tied up in a particular commercial real estate investment.

Join with Other Professionals Who Share Your Goals

Successful commercial investors rarely go it alone. They build a team of other professionals who share their same goals. A successful team includes commercial buyer’s agent, appraisers, commercial property inspectors, engineers, lenders and closing attorneys. All of whom are all an essential part of achieving success in real estate investing and who work together to set a clear strategy, conduct detailed research, and source the correct property at a fair price, and with the right conditions that fit the team’s goals. When it comes to choosing your team, choose wisely. Others involved should complement your own shortfalls in knowledge, and in return you may be able to supplement theirs.

Compare and Contrast Your Investment Opportunities

It might seem obvious, but those new to commercial investing often overpay. One of the best ways to prevent yourself from making this mistake is to know where the value point is on the property, be fully aware of comparable prices for any similar properties, and not become focused on the cash flow and lease structure. Paying too much for commercial property locks up your funds in a more rigid way than it would with residential real estate. Banks are far more reluctant to provide equity releases or cash outs for commercial investing.

Do Your Due Diligence

It’s okay to start out cautious. One of the biggest mistakes new commercial real estate investors make is signing on the dotted line without doing their due diligence. If this feels like a daunting task to take on, consider working with an experienced buyer’s agent whose job it is to analyze the property cash flows, educate the buyer on market value and market lease rates, and recommend other professionals (mentioned above). It takes time, resources, and an understanding of market connections to fully vet a commercial investment opportunity.

Consider Additional Expenses Beyond Your Investment

Smart commercial real estate investors know they must carefully allocate their budgets so there is sufficient coverage for expenses such as the mortgage, taxes, insurance, and advertising. When you don’t have enough cash flow to fund these areas, your property can quickly become a liability when really it should be an asset.

Keep an Open Mind

Just because your former tenant was a medical office doesn’t mean your new tenant has to be. This is why buying versatile commercial properties that allow a number of options is a wise investment strategy. When the real estate market fluctuates, you’re better prepared to tackle unexpected situations and experience fewer losses when doing so.

Have Contingency Plans

Finally and most importantly, you need to have at least one, if not multiple contingency plans in place in case things should take an unexpected turn. Investing in commercial real estate always comes with risks, some more than others. You need to be prepared to lose it all; therefore, you should have a plan in place of how you will react – and rebound – if that happens.

What is your experience with commercial real estate investments? Whether you’re a seasoned expert in this field, or have just started to explore the options available to you, giving these topics close consideration with each and every investment will put you in the best potion for a favorable return.

Do you have something to add to this list? Share your input by leaving a comment below!

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Tips for Promoting Your Commercial Real Estate Business on Social Media

Posted on July 22, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Businesses in every industry have turned to social media as a marketing tool to share information, grow their band and cultivate an audience. While in many cases, this has proven successful, there are plenty of businesses who miss the mark, and wind up disappointed when their social media strategy fails to deliver its intended results.

For commercial real estate professionals, social media can be a highly valuable tool, but only when used correctly – and consistently. Take a look as we discuss five important points for using social media to promote your commercial real estate business – or any business.

Brand yourself as a thought leader.

We all have to start somewhere. The same is true for building your online brand. Who are you going to be? Your content, and how you share it, will have a profound impact on the answer to this question. In business, I would think most of us want to be branded as a thought leader in our industry. In commercial real estate, you can achieve this by sharing expertise on technical topics, offer an analysis of data and trends, and partake in thought-provoking discussion. One of the most powerful platforms for this is Linkedin. Here, you can use your profile to reinforce your personal brand, you can share content through regular posting, and you can spark discussion in groups.

Make your content unique.

A staggering amount of content hits the internet each and every second. What’s going to make people stop and read yours? If you’re asking for someone to take time out of their day to read your words, it’s important to make them at least one, if not all four of these things: timely, importantly, relevant and interesting. For some added input, we asked John Webster, Owner of The John Webster Company and digital marketing expert.

“There is a lot of ‘noise’ on social media so your content needs to stand out,” explains John. “When sharing information about available properties do not simply inform about the property (everyone does that) take an additional minute to describe something special about the property, who would be a good fit for the property and why this specific property caught your eye.”

Be responsive and engaging.

If you want to create a true “audience” for your business’s content on social media, you need to remain present. This means you need to check in regularly on your posts to monitor comments, and respond. People appreciate and remember a personal response. This also increase the reach of your content. Sure, it make take 15 minutes out of your day to diligently login to your various social media accounts to monitor content, and engage with other people’s content, but make it a point to do this habitually, and it will pay off greatly as you cultivate an active audience.

Share the spotlight.

Once you build a valuable platform for sharing content, whether this is on your website, blog, Linkedin, Twitter, etc., you should consider sharing the spotlight every so often with other professionals who have an interesting perspective to share. Omni Realty often features guest Q&A blogs that expand our area of expertise while growing relationships with other respected professionals. When sharing the spotlight, this also opens up the door for others to do the same. My blogs are often published by TheBrokerList, and shared on their social media, which greatly amplifies their reach.

Build relationships with media.

Most people view the media as a tool, or approach outlets in a very self-serving manner. While, yes, at the end of the day promotion is an objective, you must also work to forge trust, respect, and even friendship with reporters and editors. Omni Realty has received a lot of earned media by approaching local media outlets in this manner. Through relationships with reporters, I’ve had 25+ articles featured in the Central Penn Business Journal, and none of it was paid placement.

Whether it’s a commercial real estate business, or any business that you’re trying to promote on social media, the most important thing to keep in mind is that your content creates your brand. What you share, how often, and how you engage with your audience, will leave a lasting impact and frame how people view both you and your business.

How have you found success when promoting your business on social media? Share a tip or personal story by leaving a comment below.

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6 Things in 2018 that Should Have Commercial Real Estate Agents Feeling Grateful

Posted on November 13, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

It’s about that time when people start to reflect upon the last year, making note of progress that has been made, and milestones that have been achieved. In light of the Thanksgiving holiday, there are certain things that should have commercial real estate agents, in particular, feeling grateful for what 2018 has brought with it.

Here’s a look at six things that should have CRE professionals giving extra thanks this year – and looking to 2019 with high expectations.

Interest rates are still historically low.

Yes, interest rates are indeed rising and people are panicking over them reaching 6%, but keep in mind that we are still way below the average rate of the last 47 years at 8.35%. Furthermore, recent gauges of U.S. inflation signify little need for the Fed to change its slow-but-steady stance on interest rate hikes at this juncture, so we don’t expect this to jump up several points overnight. Plus, there are a lot of other factors working in the economy’s favor like…

Unemployment hit a 49-year low.

It’s the headline you’re seeing smattered across every major news publication – the U.S. unemployment rate reached 3.7 percent in September — the lowest it has been since December 1969. What’s more, the job market is so tight that the amount of available jobs far exceeds the number of people seeking employment! Employers reported more than 7 million unfilled jobs in August, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000.

Demand for industrial space remains strong.

In Central PA, 2018 brought with it an increasing demand for industrial real estate. The third-quarter saw rent grow hit 6.9%. When compared to the historical average of just 1.9%, it’s easy to see how this boom in demand for industrial space is an exciting new trend for our local economy, particularly because we are poised to welcome more and more warehousing and distribution companies to the area.

Sales of multifamily real estate hits record high.

In the third-quarter, multifamily real estate sales set a new record with the all-time high of $160.6 million. This same sector set another record this year in the second-quarter with an all-time low vacancy rate of 4.3%. With just two numbers, 2018 paints the picture of Central PA’s thriving commercial real estate market, particularly in the multifamily sector.

The Fed raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year.

At its September policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year. While to some a rate increase may not be something that has you feeling grateful, this is yet one more indication of a healthy, growing economy that can sustain such an increase. Furthermore, forecasters contend that unless inflation picks up or the economy starts slowing, the federal funds rate, which is currently between 2 percent and 2.25 percent, should continue to head higher.

New industries are expanding their commercial real estate.

The sixth and final thing that should have commercial real estate agents feeling grateful this year is healthcare mergers. Why? Because this is shaking up the way healthcare systems are approaching real estate. Across the region, the Commonwealth and nationwide we are seeing mergers taking place between healthcare systems small and large. All of this “teaming up” is causing a change in the way these organizations are using commercial real estate. In some instances, such mergers call for consolidating medical office space to reduce redundancy. In other instances, more space is needed to break into new markets or regions. This burst of acquisitions and activity spurs growth and fuels CRE sales.

Gratitude…and Caution

It’s important to note, this is the highlight reel from 2018. The CRE market has certainly experienced both its ups and downs in the various sectors of retail, office and industrial real estate. What’s most important is to take all good news, and bad news, with a grain of salt and know that what goes up, will eventually come down – whether that’s next quarter, next year or next decade.

For now, we can slide into the holiday season feeling grateful for these “gifts” the market has given us this year and enter 2019 cautiously optimistic.

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High Rental Rates, Low Vacancy Define Central Pennsylvania Industrial Market

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Industrial, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Central PA’s submarket clusters for industrial real estate have some of the lowest vacancy rates and highest rental rates we have seen in recent years.

It’s the news that every commercial real estate developer and investor want to hear – the industrial real estate market in Central Pennsylvania ended Q2 2018 with some of the highest rental rates and lowest vacancy rates the market has experienced since 2014.

Now, it hasn’t been a steady climb over the last four years. Rather there’s been quite a bit of volatility in the market, with numbers bouncing up and down and up and down. However, it does appear that the extreme peaks and valleys have evened out and a more stable, yet steadily growing industrial real market has emerged in Central PA – at least for the present moment.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most interesting trends and numbers reported from CoStar’s Q1 2018 report for Harrisburg/Carlisle, Lancaster and York/Hanover Submarket Clusters.

Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster fell significantly from Q1 2018 where it was previously 9.4% to its now 7.9%. This is the largest drop between a single quarter that the market has seen since prior to Q3 2014. In fact, starting with Q2 2017, the industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster has been quite volatile, swinging up and down by sometimes more than one percentage point in a quarter.

Absorption – The pattern of volatility in the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster continues with its net absorption. Though the market ended 2017 at a positive 2,692,866 square-feet, in Q1 2018 this dropped to a negative (2,132,086) square-feet, mostly due to a single building of 1,100,000 square-feet that was delivered that same quarter. Now in Q2 2018, net absorption is back in the positive at 1,385,445 square-feet with no new buildings delivered this quarter.

Rental Rates – The average quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space is $4.98. This has been steadily increasing ever since it experienced a drop in Q2 2017 where it dropped from $4.61 to $4.46 in one quarter. Now at almost $5.00 per square foot of space, the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster’s rental rates for industrial space is the highest it has been since prior to Q3 2014.

Inventory – As mentioned above, no new buildings were delivered this quarter, or in all of 2018. Three buildings are currently under construction, totaling 2,951,468 square-feet of new space. It’s estimated that these properties will not be delivered until early 2019.

Lancaster Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for the Lancaster Submarket Cluster in Q2 2018 held steady at 1.9%, the same as it was in Q1 2018. In fact, it has changed minimally from the 2.0% that Q4 2017 ended with. Previous to these last three quarters, there has been a lot more change from quarter to quarter in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster’s vacancy rate. To be this low, and this consistent for three quarters indicates a stable market with supply and demand near evenly matched.

Absorption – As for net absorption, Q2 2018 ended with a positive 2,723 square-feet. This is a drop of 127,888 square feet from Q1’s net absorption of 130,611 square-feet. After experiencing two quarters of negative net absorption in Q2 and Q3 2017, and rebounding to positive 354,056 square-feet in Q4, this is now the third quarter that net absorption has continued to drop, though still a positive number – for now.

Rental Rates – The quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster took a hit this quarter when it dropped from $4.74 to $4.57 per square foot. The trend in rental rates have been up and down and up and down over the course of the last four years. While it peaked at $5.15 per square foot in Q4 2016, it has never been able to return to that high and is now trending downward, inching closer to the numbers we saw in early 2015.

Inventory – One new building was delivered this quarter, adding 35,768 square-feet of new space to the industrial market. There are no other buildings currently under construction in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster.

York/Hanover Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the York/Hanover Submarket Cluster dipped ever so slightly this quarter from 4.4% in Q1 2018 to its current 4.3%. This is the lowest vacancy has been in over a year when it was also 4.3% in Q1 2017. From that point, the vacancy rate was on the rise, peaking at 5.0% in Q4 2017, then dropping 0.6% points to 4.4% in Q1 2018.

Absorption – Q2 2018 ended with a net absorption of 125,766 square-feet. Looking at Q1’s net absorption of 396,112 square-feet, this is a drop of 270,345 square-feet in a single quarter. Between these two quarters only one new building of 30,000 square feet was delivered to the market.

Rental Rates – The Lancaster Submarket Cluster ended Q2 2018 with a quoted asking rental rate of $4.28. This is $0.14 higher than it was in Q1 and $0.22 higher than in Q4 2017. In fact, this is the highest rental rate this submarket cluster has seen since prior to Q3 2014 with it near steadily rising during that entire period.

Inventory – Only one new building was delivered in Q2 2018 and that added 30,000 square-feet of industrial space to the market. There are currently no new buildings under construction at this time.

Key Takeaways

Given all the activity taking place in the various Central PA submarket clusters, there are particular insights that are important to note. First, we can expect vacancies to remain at record lows for the remainder of 2018, despite a further uptick in new construction. Additionally, E-commerce sales grew 15.2% in Q2 2018, compared with the same time last year and now represent 9% of total sales. E-commerce will continue to be a driving force in the foreseeable future.

While indicators point to strong demand, there are headwinds increasing from labor shortages and tariffs. With the economy at or near full employment, site selection decisions and supply chain nodes may be driven out to secondary and tertiary markets. Finally, it is too early to predict the exact impact of tariffs on the industrial market, but we can look for potential declines in import and export levels.

Looking at the comparison of the three Central Pennsylvania submarket clusters, which do you feel has the strongest industrial real estate market right now? What changes do you anticipate taking place throughout the rest of 2018?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

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10 Facts Any Commercial Real Estate Investor Should Know about Central PA’s Industrial Market

Posted on April 30, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market No Comments

10 Facts Any Commercial Real Estate Investor Should Know about Central PA’s Industrial Market

Central PA’s industrial real estate market is unique for a variety of different reasons. Taking into consideration its geographic, demographic and economic factors, we’ve compiled a list of what we feel are the most important facts worth knowing about our local industrial market.

If you are a commercial real estate investor, or simply someone who wants to know more about Central Pennsylvania’s commercial real estate market, you are sure to find this list of top 10 facts both valuable and interesting. Let’s take a look!

Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA is 3rd most populous in PA and 43rd most populous in U.S.

The Harrisburg-York-Lebanon Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is made up of six counties and includes four metropolitan areas in Central Pennsylvania. In 2010, the CSA’s population was 1,233,708 people, making it the 3^rd most populous CSA in PA and the 43rd most populous CSA in the U.S. The Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA includes the following Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs): Harrisburg-Carlisle, Lebanon, Gettysburg and York-Hanover.

Harrisburg area puts up strong competition against Lehigh Valley.

Though Lehigh Valley is commonly recognized as Pennsylvania’s leader in warehousing and distribution, Harrisburg delivered only 600,000 SF less than Allentown in 2017, while also generating roughly the same rent growth. Additionally, companies such as Whirlpool, Amazon, Ace Hardware, FedEx, Kohler, and Lindt Chocolates have set up large-scale warehouse and distribution centers in Harrisburg – and those tenants account for just a portion of more than 16 million SF of net absorption.

Harrisburg-Carlisle and Lancaster Ranked Among Leaders in National Job Growth

Of the 25 metro areas with the fastest job growth, as of August 2017, both Harrisburg-Carlisle and Lancaster placed on this competitive list. Lancaster ranked number 24 for its steady growth as it diversifies its economy and renovates its downtown and industrial areas. In six months Lancaster added 3,100 new jobs, bringing its total employment to 252,400 and 2017 growth rate to 1.23%. Harrisburg-Carlisle ranked number 8 on the list with 6,200 new jobs added in the first two quarters of 2017, bringing total employment to 346,100 and 2017 growth rate to 1.82%. Noted was the area’s diverse group of healthcare, technology and biotechnology businesses.

Prime location for warehousing and distribution.

Central Pennsylvania is a premiere market for industrial space for several compelling reasons. For businesses who need easy and affordability storing and shipping of products, the areas offers a great roadway system, an abundant work force, relatively inexpensive and available raw land, and the ability to reach 70 to 80 percent of the U.S. population in 24 hours. Additionally, our government regulations on warehousing and distribution are comparatively easy and straightforward compared to other nearby states or regions.

Four of the 10 Select Top Industrial Leases in Q4 2017 took place in the Harrisburg market.

According to CoStar’s Q4 report for 2017, Harrisburg east and west markets represented the majority of top industrial leases signed that year. Prologis Carlisle (1,029,600 SF), Goodman Logistics Center Carlisle (1,007,868 SF), Prologis Harrisburg (623,143 SF) and Carlisle Distribution Center (575,000 SF) were all leased to different businesses who were looking to grow their industrial real estate space in Central Pennsylvania. This activity indicates economic growth and interest in Central PA’s industrial real estate market, both from businesses and real estate investors.

Lancaster market has the highest quoted rental rate for industrial space in Central PA at $4.69 per SF.

Even though Lancaster’s quoted rental rate for industrial space decreased by $0.45 per SF than where it was at the end of Q4 2016, it still comes in higher than Central PA’s other surrounding submarkets. At $4.69 per SF, Lancaster is $1.41 per SF higher than Lebanon, $0.03 per SF higher than Harrisburg/Carlisle, $0.08 per SF higher than Gettysburg and $0.67 per SF higher than York/Hanover based on Q4 2017.

Lancaster also has the lowest vacancy rate for industrial space in Central PA at just 2.0%.

Lancaster ended Q4 2017 with the lowest vacancy rate of all surrounding submarkets. Compared to Lancaster’s vacancy rate of 2.0%, Lebanon came in at 15.8%, Harrisburg/Carlisle at 6.8% and York/Hanover at 4.9% based on Q4 2017. Though Gettysburg did end 2017 with a vacancy rate of 0.4%, it’s important to note this submarket has just 78 buildings with a combined 4,372,179 SF of existing inventory which places it at a much different level than the other submarkets, comparatively.

Within the MSA, Harrisburg/Carlisle has the largest SF of industrial space under construction at 1,813,468 SF.

Two significantly large industrial projects will soon result in the addition of 1,813,468 SF to the Harrisburg/Carlisle submarket. Comparatively, Lebanon has three buildings under construction with a combined 1,310,195 SF of space, Lancaster has two buildings under construction with a combined 76,486 SF of space, York/Hanover has two buildings under construction with a combined 895,000 SF of space and Gettysburg has no new industrial space under construction. For Central PA as a whole, that equals 4,095,149 SF of new industrial space that will soon be delivered to the market.

Harrisburg/Carlisle’s ended 2017 with a positive net absorption of 2,700,108 SF.

According to CoStar’s Q4 2017 industrial market report, Harrisburg/Carlisle ended the year with the highest, positive net absorption we’ve seen since prior to 2014. At 2,700,180 SF, this is significantly higher than any other quarter that year, especially Q2 where the net absorption dropped to negative 499,576 SF. Additionally is Q4 2017, one new building was delivered to the market, adding 1,100,000 SF of space. Even with this influx of inventory, the net absorption rose by 2,083,756 SF. The new building that was delivered is Whirlpool’s new distribution facility located at 100 Fry Drive, Mechanicsburg.

Influx of State and Federal dollars will continue to improve transportation in and around Central PA.

The Trump administration has recently been touting a $1.5 trillion, 10-year public-private plan to improve roads, bridges, ports and other infrastructures across the nation. Central Pennsylvania has plans to utilize some of this federal funding to bolster its priority projects which include fixing structurally deficient bridges and widening interstates. Improvement to our roadways and infrastructure will improve public safety, create construction jobs and make Central PA an even more attractive location for warehousing and distribution.

After reading through these top 10 facts any commercial real estate investor should know about Central PA’s industrial market, you are likely to have some comments or questions of your own.

Start a discussion by leaving a comment below!

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Impact of the New Tax Law on Commercial Real Estate

Posted on February 12, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

The federal tax overhaul, which was enacted into law on December 22, 2017, was the most drastic tax law changes that the United States has seen in 30 years. While it will take some time to fully understand how much tax savings the changes could generate for commercial real estate investors, there are several significant impacts that are quite apparent.

New tax climate favors commercial real estate investors

Legal and tax experts agree that the new tax law bestows several benefits that make it more appealing for commercial real estate investors to buy properties. Many of the changes will put more money back into the pocket of investors in terms of tax savings. Some of the changes, particularly the tax treatment of capital expenditures, will shield a tremendous amount of income for property owners that are making capital investments and improvements to their properties. And let’s not overlook the ripple effect the new tax bill may create, such as fueling economic and job growth that will drive demand for commercial real estate. All things considered, real estate has become just about the most accessible way for high net-worth investors to profit from the tax law.

A shift in capital should increase demand for commercial properties

The tax new law creates an incentive for investors to shift capital from equities to pass-through businesses. Essentially, the law enables a taxpayer to factor 2.5 percent of the original purchase price of a property into the calculation of the 20 percent deduction for pass-through income. This allows a real estate investor the ability to reduce real estate investments to an effective 29.6 percent tax rate, which is 10 points lower than it was in 2017. Without the predicted shift in capital based on the tax new law, commercial real estate prices likely would have stalled in 2018, due to increasing interest rates and decreasing cap rates. It’s important to note that the deduction is set to expire in December 2025.

Expansion of Section 179 allows commercial property owners to direct expense improvements

Another positive for commercial real estate investors is the expansion of the Section 179 deduction for depreciation. Under the Section 179 revision, the new tax law lets commercial property owners count the cost of improvements (i.e. roofs, HVAC systems and security systems) as direct expenses in the year these items were installed. Under the previous tax law, improvements had to be capitalized with a small piece being expensed each year until the full cost was exhausted. Additionally, the Section 179 change is retroactive to the 2017 tax year, which is unlike other parts of the new law.

Tax-free 1031 swaps for real estate were retained

Another piece of the tax law that should have commercial real estate investors excited is the retention of tax-free 1031 swaps for real estate. The real victory here is that lawmakers did not yank 1031-exchanges for real estate, as they did for aircraft and other types of personal property. In fact, under the new law 1031 trades are now restricted exclusively to real estate.

Insights from a tax adviser

The new tax law creates some gray areas and leaves many questions unanswered, particularly as it relates to commercial real estate. As a commercial real estate investor, the best thing you can do is consult a tax adviser before making any drastic changes to your real estate investment strategies. At Omni Realty Group, we had a few questions of our own so we asked Jim Holland, accountant and owner of Jim Holland CPA to weigh in with his insight. Here is what he shared.

“There is no doubt the biggest winner in the real estate arena was for commercial real estate investors; however, it is wise to proceed with caution. I would recommend to any commercial real estate investor that they tread lightly until more is known about calculating the 20% reduction of business income, including from flow through entities. The calculation can be complicated and burdensome.”

That’s not to say there are some immediate actions CRE investors might consider taking in 2018 to put themselves in the best possible position to maximize the benefits of the new tax law. Clifton Guise, Tax Attorney and Partner at Halbruner, Hatch & Guise, LLP shares the following.

“Because most real estate investors own and operate their real estate activities through pass-through entities (LLCs, LPs, and S-Corps) or sole proprietorships, it is important to determine if the investor qualifies for the Qualified Business Income (“QBI”) Deduction. The QBI Deduction is an individual level deduction that can reduce the tax rate on income from pass-through entities. An investor may need to restructure their entity or in some cases restructure their leases in order to qualify for the QBI Deduction.”

Taking the time to fully understand the new tax law, and identifying how you may need to restructure your leases or business model to maximize your benefits under this law is a worthy investment of your time. If you are a commercial real estate investor, make it a goal to seek advice on the new tax law and how it stands to impact your business going forward.

Share your opinion! What do you think is the most important impact the new tax law will have on commercial real estate?

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Central Pennsylvania CRE Market Reports Q4 2016

Posted on March 2, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

The Cost of Commercial Real Estate in Central PA Rises Across All Sectors: Office, Retail and Industrial

2016 wrapped up with quite an interesting quarter for Central PA’s commercial real estate market. Out of all the sectors, office space was the weakest performer. However, even though it dropped to a negative net absorption, its rental rate continued to rise. Retail and Industrial space were the stronger performers. Both finished out the quarter with the highest sales price per square foot that the market has seen for at least four years. In all sectors, new space is rapidly being delivered to the market, which should make it interesting to see how this impacts absorption in future quarters. Take a look at the breakdown of each sector of commercial real estate in Central PA and how it performed in Q4 2016, according to CoStar.

OFFICE

In Q4 2016, Central PA’s office real estate market saw an increase in vacancy, rising to 6.1%. It also dipped into a negative net absorption of -14,026 square feet. Only one building, located at 300 Winding Creek Boulevard in Mechanicsburg (20,000 sqft), was delivered this quarter while four more remain under construction. Once they deliver, they will add a combined 133,590 square feet of new space to the market. Interestingly, the quoted rental rate rose this quarter to $17.38 per square foot, an increase of $0.09 from last quarter and an overall record high from prior to 2013.

RETAIL

In Central PA’s retail real estate market this quarter, a total of 12 new buildings were delivered. Combined, these added 126,296 square feet of new space to the market. Additionally, 12 buildings remain under construction, but once completed will add a combined 272,338 square feet of additional retail space. All of this added space barely impacted vacancy, and in fact, moved the needle in the opposite direction than what might be expected. The percentage of vacant space available dropped down by 0.1% to 4.1%. This is the lowest vacancy has been since prior to 2013. The quoted rental rate jumped up $0.32 to a total of $12.47 per square foot. This is the highest price we have seen also since prior to 2013. Though net absorption decreased by 108,583 square feet, it remains in the black at 262,060 square feet.

Two properties in Central PA made it to CoStar’s list of Select Year-to-Date Deliveries. They are located at I8-1 and Walker Road (109,239 sqft) and 700 West Main Street, Annville (33,000 sqft). Among the 15 Select Top Under Construction Properties featured by CoStar, only one from Central PA made the list and this is the project located at 101 Wilson Avenue in Hanover (136,193 sqft).

INDUSTRIAL

Central Pennsylvania’s industrial market gained four new buildings this quarter with a combined RBA of 1,114,800 square feet. Another 14 buildings still remain under construction and are projected to deliver 6,630,117 square feet of space, once complete. Despite the influx of new space, vacancy has not budged from last quarter and remains at 5.4%. The quoted rental rate even increased by $0.07 from last quarter to $4.37 per space foot. This is the highest rental rate we have seen since prior to 2013. Although net absorption did decrease, it remains in the black at 987,110 square feet.

Of the Select Year-to-Date Deliveries, Central PA made the list three times for the following buildings: Lebanon Valley Distribution Center (874,126 sqft), Trade Center 44 (620,000 sqft) and Gateway Logistics Park – Building B (500,000 sqft). Central PA also had a strong presence on the list of Select Top Sales with 3 of the top 9 properties located in Carlisle and Mechanicsburg.

What trend from Q4 2016 did you find most interesting or impact to the Central Pennsylvania Economy? Share your insights by leaving a comment below.

Learn more from past market reports:

Central Pennsylvania’s Retail Real Estate Market Experiences Record-Setting Quarter

Central PA’s Office Market Sets Recent Records for Vacancy, RBA and Rental Rates!

Influx of New Construction Impacts Central PA’s Industrial Real Estate Market

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Predictions for Trends and Changes in Commercial Real Estate in 2017

Posted on February 6, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

It’s the start of a new year and naturally this turns our attention toward what we predict will happen in the coming 12 months. Specifically in the commercial real estate market, there are several noteworthy trends and changes we predict to take place in 2017. What are these and how will they impact the various sectors of commercial real estate? Here’s the breakdown!

Office Real Estate

Experts are predicting that suburban markets will outperform downtown markets in 2017. Suburban rent growth is anticipated to exceed 2% while vacancies will only increase 10 base points (to 14.5%). In contrast, downtown vacancies are expected to increase by 30 base points (to 10.9%). The explanation to this growth is that suburban development is catering to millennials who want to live, work and socialize all in the same area. While national occupancy in downtown office space will still far exceed the suburban markets, suburban office space will have a much higher growth rate in 2017, relatively speaking.

Industrial Real Estate

Out of all of the sectors, industrial real estate will have the best year in 2017. Major growth in e-commerce as well as technological advancements, like driverless vehicles, have been fueling this sector’s growth. As these industries continue to thrive, so will industrial real estate! Availability sits at a 15-year low while net occupancy achieved its 26th quarter of record gains (as of Q3). Best of all, rents continue to climb toward a record-setting high. Because it wouldn’t be fair not to throw in a little bad news to keep things balanced, the sector is expected to slow down a bit as the result of a wane in user demand.

Retail Real Estate

2016 was not a good year for retail and it looks like 2017 will continue to get worse. Brick-and-mortar stores are closing and consolidating while e-commerce proves to be the way of the future. Online sales are expected to increase by 15.5% (to 9.2%) this year. On a brighter note, Class A malls are expected to maintain or increase their rents per square foot, as they have for the past five years. Also, experts predict that mixed-use lifestyle developments will be a possible solution for brick-and-mortar locations to compete with e-commerce. Finally, community strip centers are expected to grow by 1.7% in 2017.

Hotel Real Estate

In 2017 we expect to see a healthy labor market and wage growth which will ultimately benefit hotel real estate through an increase in leisure and business travel. However, major competitors to the hotel market, such as Airbnb and similar home-sharing businesses will continue to thrive. This is expected to steal sales from hotels as the concept of home-sharing becomes more mainstream and robust.

Multifamily Real Estate

Overall, experts are optimistic for the multifamily real estate market in 2017, but that’s not without a few key challenges. An increase in supply this year will drive up vacancy rates and impact rental rates as a result. Interestingly, it’s the high-end apartments that will experience the most shrinking rents, while Class B and Class C apartments will be less impacted. This is the first time since the Great Recession that supply outpaced demand, as it did in 2016. It’s expected to continue into 2017 which leaves some major hurdles to face moving forward.

What sector of commercial real estate do you think will be the most changed in 2017? Share your insights by leaving a comment!

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