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Amidst Massive Retail Closings, Central PA Commercial Real Estate Continues to Grow

Posted on June 26, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

We’ve watched it on the news, read about it in the papers and have seen it in person. Several large retailers in Central Pennsylvania have made the decision to close their doors, such as Sears, Kmart, and hh gregg, as well as a growing list of other retailers struggling to stay in the black.

The landscape of retail real estate is changing, and with that the market is reacting. While some retailers are looking to move out of brick-and-mortar locations, other mega brands like Amazon are looking to move in. What does this mean for the future of retail real estate, specifically here in Harrisburg, York and Lancaster? Let’s take a look at changes that have taken place and trends that have emerged over the last 12 months.

Harrisburg

The Harrisburg retail market has gained 162,000 square-feet of new space in the last 12 months. However, in this same amount of time, the market was only able to absorb 110,000 square-feet, causing the total net absorption for the quarter to drop to a negative 153,000 square-feet. The 4.2% vacancy rate is an increase from the recent low we saw in Q1 2017, when it dipped down to 3.7%. Though the market has 0.0% rent growth, there has been $82M in sales that is almost double the historical average of $52M. Harrisburg has just 1 under-construction retail property that will be delivered in 2017 and will add 12,000 square-feet of unleased space to the market. Though we have recently seen quite a few closings of retail locations, there remains more than 20 proposed projects for new retail space including general retail, community centers and strip malls.

York

The York retail market has gained 27,000 square-feet of new retail space over the last year, with a 12-month net absorption of 152,000 square-feet. The total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 10,000 square-feet. York’s vacancy rate is a bit higher than Harrisburg’s at 5.7%, but over the past 12 months, it has decreased by 0.6%. The market experienced a very small rent growth of 0.1% and did $19M in sales in 12 months’ time. York County has 4 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 264,217 square-feet of mostly unleased space to the market.

Lancaster

In Lancaster County, 34,000 square-feet of new retail space was delivered to the market in the last 12 months. The 12-month net absorption is 169,000 square-feet and the total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 13,000 square-feet. Lancaster’s vacancy rate is much lower than York and Harrisburg, coming in at 2.4%. In the last 12 months the vacancy rate has decreased by 0.6%, reaching its lowest point back in Q4 2016 when it was 2.3%. Like Harrisburg, Lancaster did not experience a rent growth in the last 12 months, but did do $39M in sales. Lancaster County has 5 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 159,500 square-feet of space to the market, more than half of which is preleased.

Trends & Overview

In the current market, each city has its strengths and weaknesses. Harrisburg has the highest 12-month sales of the three, but the lowest net absorption for the current quarter. Lancaster has the lowest vacancy rate of the three, but has relatively unimpressive new construction projects, sales and rental growth. York has the most new retail space scheduled to be delivered in the next few years, but has the lowest 12-month sales of the three.

All things considered, each market appears to be stable and poised for additional growth. Vacancy rates have remained mostly the same or experienced a decrease, the markets are demonstrating their ability to absorb most of the new space that is being delivered, and there continues to be under-construction projects and plan for new space. These indicators provide us with confidence that real estate investors, developers and retailers continue to see value in doing business in Central Pennsylvania.

Between Harrisburg, York and Lancaster, the area offers some unique benefits including more space and at a lower cost compared to big cities. We are also a main corridor for commuters and travelers going to New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Simply put, Central Pennsylvania has the right combination of resources and advantages to remain a vibrant location for retail growth.

Do you agree? What Central PA market is having the best year so far? Share your thoughts by commenting below!

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Central PA Experiences Highest Number of Retail Store Closings Since Recession

Posted on March 7, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

After retailers come off the holiday boost, the first quarter of the year is a common time for stores to announce closures. Between January and March, retailers assess their portfolios and make decisions to shed underperforming stores. Central Pennsylvania is no exception. In recent months, several anchor retail spaces have made the decision to close their doors, including Sears, Kmart, and hh gregg as well as a growing list of other retailers struggling to stay in the black.

What factors are fueling these store closings? Well, there are a few including industry consolidation and competition from online shopping that is causing companies to rethink the expense of brick and mortar locations. Experts predict that 2017’s store closure season will result in the most store closures the market has seen since 2010, when we were coming out of the recession.

The good news is that for most store closings, in Central Pennsylvania, there is another retailer ready to move in. For the many other stores who rely on their anchor retailers to pull business into a location, such as a mall or shopping complex, it’s important to have a thriving business in that space. Here’s a look at some of the retail locations in Central PA that will be getting new tenants in the coming months.

Sears in the Capital City Mall will become Dick’s Sporting Goods

In early February it was announced that Dick’s Sporting Goods plans to take over the space being left by Sears at the Capital City Mall in Cumberland County, and will relocate its existing store in Hampden Township. PREIT, the Philadelphia-based real estate investment trust, is working to replace closing Sears stores at malls around the region.

It’s interesting and important that a business like PREIT is assisting in finding suitable tenants to fill the vacated space by Sears. This is a critical step to ensure that mall’s business is not adversely affected by Sears moving out, but rather has the opportunity to drive in even more business with the selection of the right replacement retailer.

Kmart on the Carlisle Pike will become Marshalls, Homegoods and Stein Mart

Sears Holdings Corp. also announced in January that it would be closing two Kmarts in Central Pennsylvania. The closings were part of a larger retrenchment by the company. Plans already are under way to replace one of those Kmarts, in Hampden Township with the thriving boutique department store chain, Marshalls, Homegoods and Stein Mart. Aside from Marshalls, this will be the first Homegoods and Stein Mart on the West Shore.

More Retail Chains Struggling to Stay Afloat

Bon-Ton – According to Time magazine, Bon-Ton has closed “at least” 6 stores in the past two years and its store sales were down 3.1 percent this past holiday season.

J.C. Penney – JCP plans to close 130 to 140 stores and offer buyouts to 6,000 workers as the department-store industry sags in competition with online sellers and nimble niche retailers.

Macy’s – Macy’s recently announced plans to cut 100 of its 675 full-line stores.

Claire’s Stores – According to Reuters, Claire’s debt load has swollen to $2.4 billion, as more people shop online and take teen and pre-teen girls to malls less frequently.

David’s Bridal – Time reported that David’s Bridal moved from stable to negative in September 2016. The store’s CEO also resigned last year after just 3 years on the job with no real explanation.

Gymboree – Moody’s downgraded this children’s apparel retailer in November 2016. The company then announced that its CEO would be stepping down amid a likely $1 billion debt restructuring deal.

Crew – The company is placing a new emphasis on online sales and athleisure wear, likely due to a possible $2 billion debt restructuring effort that was announced in 2016.

Nine West – A Fitch Ratings report from September 2016 listed the women’s shoes and handbags chain as among those at risk for bankruptcy.

Payless – This discount shoe retailer announced a debt restructuring plan that may include the shuttering of 1,000 stores or even filing for bankruptcy.

And the list keeps growing! See even more retail chains that have been marked as in financial distress.

Final Thoughts: What this means for Central Pennsylvania

The majority of retailers who are closing their doors or struggling to stay afloat sell clothing and goods. In contrast, grocery stores and restaurants remain, for the most part, white hot. Food retailers could become the new, true anchor for malls and shopping centers. E-commerce won’t replace going out to eat and while some grocery chains are looking to expand into online shopping and front door delivery, that majority of people still prefer to shop at a brick and mortar location.

It’s also important to note that though we’ve experienced quite a few retailers closing their doors, it’s not all doom and gloom for Central PA’s retail real estate market. Rising wages, job growth and lower gas prices are expected to stimulate more consumer spending. Though it may seem like a lot of store closings right now, retailers will soon find the balance between e-commerce and brick and mortar locations they need to “right the ship” and stay in business.

What retail chain are you most shocked to see close its doors? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment.

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Central PA’s Office Market Sets Recent Records for Vacancy, RBA and Rental Rates!

Posted on October 19, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

At first glance, it didn’t appear like Q3 2016 held any exciting news for Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market. No top sales, no major projects delivered and only a couple projects under construction. But as we dug a little deeper into the numbers, we found that this quarter claimed recent record highs for RBA and quoted rental rates, as well as a record low for vacancy rate.

Together, these trends tell us that good things are happening within the local office real estate market, with numbers that continue to indicate growing demand. Let’s take a closer look at the highlights from Q3 2016 which we can use to analyze the current market and predict future trends.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

CoStar’s list of Select Year-to-Date Deliveries includes two properties in Central Pennsylvania. Though none of these were delivered in Q3, it’s worth recapping that activity that has taken place so far in 2016. The Sterling Place Corporate Center in Mechanicsburg was delivered in Q2 with 129,000 square-feet of fully leased space. At 440 Walker Road, Chambersburg, 9,199 square-feet of space was delivered in Q1. Only 63% was preleased.

Top Under-Construction Properties:

Although no new properties were delivered in Q3, we expect to see at least one new office building delivered to the Central PA market in Q4. This property, located on Hogestown Road in Mechanicsburg, will add 129,000 square-feet of office space. It is 100% preleased.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption dropped this quarter by 70,917 square-feet. There has been a lot of fluctuation in net absorption from quarter to quarter and this continues in line with the trend. Total RBA did not budge from last quarter which was 54,902,624 square-feet. This maintains the recent record high that we reached in Q2, the highest RBA in Central PA since prior to Q4 2012.

Vacancy & Rental Rate:

Vacancy decreased again this quarter to a recent record low of 6.0%. This is the lowest vacancy rate we have experienced since prior to Q4 2012. As might be expected with a decrease in vacancy, we also experienced an increase in the quoted rental rate. Now at $17.30 per square-foot, this is $0.04 higher than last quarter and only $0.03 less than the recent record high of $17.33 we saw in Q1 2016.

Our Summary/Analysis:

All in all, Q3 brought positive news for Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market. An increase in demand for space is driving down vacancy and driving up the price per square foot. New properties are at least 50%, if not 100%, preleased before they even hit the market. With another 100% preleased property expected to be delivered next quarter, we predict that 2016 will have a strong finish, indicating a healthy and growing office market.

Based upon the data for Q3 2016, what do you find to be most interesting or important? Share your insight by commenting below!

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Central Pennsylvania’s Retail Real Estate Market Experiences Record-Setting Quarter

Posted on September 15, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

This quarter has posted some of the highest and lowest numbers we have seen since 2012. In Central Pennsylvania’s local retail real estate market, vacancy rate is low, rental rate is high and both net absorption and total RBA have increased. But overall, what does this tell us about the state of our economy and what we can expect in future quarters?

Let’s take a closer look at some of the record-setting numbers we experienced in Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market in 2016’s second quarter and what they mean to the health of the economy.

Select Year-to-Date Deliveries:

Coming in at number three on the list of select year-to-date deliveries is the retail property located at I-81 and Walker Road in Chambersburg. Phase I and II, delivered in Q1 2016, total 109,237 square-feet of space that is 92% leased (44,000 square-feet with 4,400 square-feet vacant). Some of the major tenants include Kohl’s, Target, Giant, Red Robin, Staples, PetSmart, Michael’s, Olive Garden, VisionWorks, ATT&T and many more. Palisades Development, LLC are currently processing LOIs for the remaining space. Phase III is planned and construction will proceed when leasing warrants.

At number 15 on CoStar’s list, is another Palisades Development, LCC retail property located at 968 Norland Avenue in Chambersburg. This 10,800 square-foot building is 100% occupied and was also delivered in Q1 2016.

Select Top Retail Leases:

On the list of Select Top Retail Leases, Harrisburg area east claimed the top spot. Listed at number one is the Harrisburg East Shopping Center with 69,954 square-feet of space. Although not listed by CoStar’s as a “Select Top Retail Lease” for this quarter, plans are in place for the Giant currently in Colonial Commons, to make a move 0.2 miles down Jonestown Road to the Harrisburg East Shopping Center into the retail space formerly occupied by Gander Mountain. This will provide more space for Giant and is already attracting additional retail businesses nearby including a CVS Pharmacy and potentially a fast-casual restaurant, reports KIMCO, owner of the shopping center.

Select Top Sales:

Only one of the nine Select Top Sales from April 2015-June 2016 is from the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Shoppes at Susquehanna Marketplace sold for $44,000,000 to Clarion Partners. With an RBA of 110,365 square-feet, this came at a cost of $398.68 per square foot.

Additionally, the West Porte Center, listed by CoStar as a Select Top Retail Lease, is more accurately represented as a sale. PennDOT purchased 67,126 square-feet of land for a new Amtrak station in Middletown that is expected to be finished in 2018. This is estimated to be a $32 million project which will include features like a covered pedestrian bridge to provide direct access to Penn State Harrisburg’s campus.

Absorption and Demand:

Net absorption increased this quarter from 64,467 square-feet (in Q1) to 110,449 square-feet, currently. Total RBA also increased, though just slightly, from 88,822,714 square-feet (in Q1) to 88,854,312 square-feet, currently. Six buildings were delivered with a total RBA of 31,598 square-feet. Additionally, five buildings are under construction.

Vacancy:

This quarter, the vacancy rate decreased by 0.1% to 4.7%. This once again matches the vacancy rate of Q4 2015, which is the lowest rate the Central PA submarket has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Rental Rate:

The quoted rental rate increased this quarter by $0.11 to $12.00. This is the highest price per square-foot the local retail real estate market has experienced since prior to Q3 2012.

Our Summary/Analysis:

Q2 2016 provided to be an exciting and record-setting quarter for Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market. We experienced a recent record low for vacancy rate at 4.7% and a recent record high for quoted rental rate at $12.00 per square-foot. These two trends go hand in hand, so it’s no surprise they would correlate together.

Another positive indicator for the health of the retail real estate market is the increase in net absorption and total RBA. Though neither were record-setting per se, net absorption nearly doubled in a single quarter which is impressive in its own right. It’s safe to say that the market is growing in demand, increasing in price and is able to absorb the new buildings that have been delivered.

What trend do you think will have the greatest impact on the Central Pennsylvania retail market? Share your insight by commenting below!

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5 Signs You Need New Office Space

Posted on August 7, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Office Leasing, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

It can be difficult to see the signs that you need new office space for your business. Maybe it’s the fear of change or the discomfort of moving all of your files, equipment and employees to a new office. Whatever the hesitation, the consequences of not moving to a better functioning space can be far worse than the temporary inconvenience of relocating.

Take a look at these five signs that you might need new office space and think about how they relate to your own work environment.

You’re struggling to retain/attract talent

Is your turnover rate increasing? Are potential hires turning down your job offers? While many other factors contribute to these issues, don’t underestimate how your office space may be playing into the struggle to find and retain talent. People want to work in an energizing, fun and inspiring environment. If your office space is crowded, disorganized and in desperate need of repairs, it’s time to look for an upgrade or risk having talent walk right out your door.

There’s a lack of privacy

While it may seem fun and hip to have your employees work in one big open space together, keep in mind that people need privacy, just as much as they need community, to get work done. If your office space lacks a private area for holding meetings or making phone calls – or even just a space where employees can go to work in silence for a few hours, it’s time to look for an office that provides a little more privacy.

It doesn’t reflect your brand or company culture

Are you an innovative tech startup, but you’re working in an office space that looks like it belongs to a law firm from the 1950’s? When your work environment contrasts with your brand and company culture, it can have a negative impact on your employees. It’s important to work in a space that complements the brand you’re working to create. This is a subconscious reminder to employees of the business’s core values you want them to represent in everything they do.

There’s no room for growth

If you’re a business that has plans to grow your operations and add to your number of employees, yet you don’t have room for one more desk, let alone a filing cabinet, it’s time to start looking for new office space! Don’t wait until you are desperate to move, or you may make a desperate decision that isn’t in your best interest. Start looking for more space preemptively and work with a qualified commercial real estate broker who can help you negotiate the best deal possible.

You’re paying too much

Finally, if you’re dumping too much of your profits into your office lease, it’s time to look for a more financially responsible work space. Sure, a pricy loft with views of the Harrisburg Capitol is great for your ego, but it’s terrible for the sustainability of your business. This is a red flag that it’s time to work with a tenant representative who can show you a wide variety of attractive options while staying within your budget.

Can you relate to one or more of these signs? Ask us your office space related questions and we will personally respond with our expert advice!

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How Will New Office Space Construction in Central PA Impact the Market?

Posted on November 18, 2015 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

business, building, paperwork and people concept - happy builder in hardhat with clipboard and pencil over group of builders at construction site

Photo Credit: Dollar Photo Club

2015 has brought a boost in office space construction to Central Pennsylvania and there is even more space to come! While this may be exciting news for businesses looking to expand into the local market, we need to watch this trend closely and cautiously because the potential impact may not be so favorable for landlords and sellers of commercial office space.

The good news is we have four projects under construction that will deliver more than 400,000 square-feet to the market within the coming year, with a majority of this space already preleased. However, this promising news for the market is tempered by the fact that many tenants will vacate other office space nearby to occupy these newly constructed office buildings.

Once delivered, this square footage will most certainly impact net absorption and vacancy rates in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. What can we do to prepare and attempt to reduce any negative impact? Let’s first take a look at what’s going on in the market and then analyze what will likely result from these trends.

Third Quarter 2015: Select Top Under Construction Properties

Currently four different commercial office properties are under construction in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Cornwall Health Center, located in Harrisburg Area East, broke ground in fourth quarter 2014 and is scheduled to be delivered in fourth quarter 2015. It has an RBA of 54,234 square-feet and is 100% preleased. The TecPort Business Campus – Building A broke ground this quarter and is scheduled to be delivered in third quarter 2016. It has an RBA of 7,590 square-feet. It is not preleased and its quoted rental rate is listed as negotiable.

Additionally, a Class A office space project is under construction at the intersection of Carlisle Pike and Hogestown Road. The two buildings that make up this project have a combined 259,000 square-feet of space are expected to be completed in spring 2016. Finally, there is Class B office space at 1250 Camp Hill Bypass that is under construction. Its 82,000 square-feet of space is 100% preleased.

Third Quarter 2015 Rental Rates & Vacancy

This quarter, rental rates rose to $17.14 per square-foot. This is the highest rate we have seen since prior to 2011. The vacancy rate decreased from 7.8% to 7.5%. The vacant square-footage also decreased from 4,120,331 square-feet to 3,962,599 square-feet.

Third Quarter 2015 Absorption and Demand

The total RBA in Q3 2015 increased to 52,581,663 square-feet. Net absorption also experienced a substantial increase, more than tripling last quarter’s 50,466 square-feet to the 190,232 square-feet that closed out third quarter 2015. But take note, both net absorption and vacancy rates will soon be greatly impacted by the 400,000+ square-feet that will be delivered to the market in the next year!

Future Trends and Their Impact

New construction certainly has its benefits, and for the time being, the Central Pennsylvania office submarket is receiving a positive boost from the activity. But as this new square-footage is delivered in the next 12 months, causing businesses to vacate other space within the region, we can expect to see some new trends emerge.

Let’s take a look at a highlight of predictions we expect to see in the coming quarters:

Inconsistent Net Absorption: The only real pattern in net absorption of office space over the last 15 quarters has been inconsistency. Year-to-date for 2015 we are at 630,738 square-feet; 2014 totaled negative 311,827 square-feet; 2013 was 909,658 square-feet; and 2012 was negative 226,424 square-feet.
Increased Vacancy Rate: The addition of 340,000 square-feet of new construction in the Harrisburg West market that is being occupied by Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Deloitte will result in an increased vacancy rate in 2016 due to the occupants relocating from existing space. In addition, the Walgreens- Rite Aid merger will contribute to the market’s increased vacant space as the two companies integrate corporate back-office functions.
Decreased Employee Square-Footage: Square-feet per employee have been in a long term decline and will continue on this trend. E-commerce, telecommuting, and the desire for open and collaborative work spaces are squeezing the office space sector given that square footage per office employee is diminishing.
Increased Demand for Medical Office Space: The one bright spot in the office market segment is the increasing demand for medical office space. Orthopedic Associates of Lancaster is constructing a 73,529 square foot facility in North Cornwall Township. Good Samaritan Hospital is opening a new 22,000 square foot center at 840 Tuck Street in Lebanon. And Pinnacle Health is opening an 80,000 square foot Advanced Care Center in a former retail shopping center located at 1251 East Main Street in Annville.

These predictions are not going to be music to the ears of landlords and sellers, but this market provides some prime opportunities for new and growing businesses to expand within Central Pennsylvania. Increasing vacancy rates and inconsistent net absorption creates a competitive market in which the buyer or renter has the upper-hand. So businesses take note. If you were thinking of moving to or expanding within Central Pennsylvania, 2016 is the prime time to do so!

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Omni Realty Helps to Open State-of-the-Art Medical Facility in Perry County

Posted on December 5, 2014 by mike.kushner in Blog, Healthcare, Local Market, Success Stories No Comments

A joint venture, three years in the making, between Omni Realty Group and Triple Crown Corporation will officially open its doors to a premiere medical facility in Perry County.

Outside the Medical Professional Center of Newport

This space will house state of the art imaging including MRI, CT, Mammography and X-Ray; laboratory services; cardiology care and cardiology diagnostic testing; and physician specialists – including endocrinology, obstetrics/gynecology, orthopedics, urology and others.

State-of-the-art medical equipment is one of the many benefits the Medical Professional Center of Newport brings to Perry County.

This major project began in January 2012 when Mike Kushner, owner of Omni Realty began researching possible locations for the facility. One of the biggest challenges was finding a well-located tract of land with public water and sewer in Perry County’s semi-rural areas. While it took some time to locate the right land for this project, it was also one of the most critical details to secure.

Mike was successful in finding the ideal location for the facility, named The Medical Professional Center of Newport, on Bretz Court off of Shortcut Road in Howe Township. The new space will allow for many healthcare professionals to move into a shared space that will make quality healthcare more convenient and accessible for Perry County residents.

A look at the community gathering area inside the Medical Professional Center of Newport

“PinnacleHealth is pleased to partner with other healthcare providers in Newport to bring expanded and comprehensive outpatient healthcare to Perry County residents,” states Michael A. Young, president and CEO for PinnacleHealth. “Adding increased access to primary care and outpatient services is part of PinnacleHealth’s implementation plan based on the recent Community Health Needs Assessment completed last year.”

PinnacleHealth FamilyCare, who has operated a family practice presence in Newport for many years, will relocate from its office at 28 Shortcut Road and occupy 20,000 square-feet of this new space. Two additional medical office condos have been built and sold to local practitioners, Sisson-Boyer Eyecare, LLC and Daniel Hengst, DMD, Dentistry. Upon opening, 100 percent of this facility will be occupied by medical professionals.

Inside the new dentist office located within the Medical Professional Center of Newport

The Medical Professional Center of Newport exemplifies an emerging trend in healthcare real estate strategies which is to develop a hub and spoke healthcare delivery model. The center will provide a central location for a majority of common healthcare needs. Perry County residents will now be able to receive primary care, specialty care, imaging and laboratory services at a single facility which will increase efficiencies and service of care.

What are your thoughts on this new facility opening in Perry County, Pennsylvania? Share your opinion by commenting below!

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