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High Rental Rates, Low Vacancy Define Central Pennsylvania Industrial Market

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Industrial, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Central PA’s submarket clusters for industrial real estate have some of the lowest vacancy rates and highest rental rates we have seen in recent years.

It’s the news that every commercial real estate developer and investor want to hear – the industrial real estate market in Central Pennsylvania ended Q2 2018 with some of the highest rental rates and lowest vacancy rates the market has experienced since 2014.

Now, it hasn’t been a steady climb over the last four years. Rather there’s been quite a bit of volatility in the market, with numbers bouncing up and down and up and down. However, it does appear that the extreme peaks and valleys have evened out and a more stable, yet steadily growing industrial real market has emerged in Central PA – at least for the present moment.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most interesting trends and numbers reported from CoStar’s Q1 2018 report for Harrisburg/Carlisle, Lancaster and York/Hanover Submarket Clusters.

Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster fell significantly from Q1 2018 where it was previously 9.4% to its now 7.9%. This is the largest drop between a single quarter that the market has seen since prior to Q3 2014. In fact, starting with Q2 2017, the industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster has been quite volatile, swinging up and down by sometimes more than one percentage point in a quarter.

Absorption – The pattern of volatility in the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster continues with its net absorption. Though the market ended 2017 at a positive 2,692,866 square-feet, in Q1 2018 this dropped to a negative (2,132,086) square-feet, mostly due to a single building of 1,100,000 square-feet that was delivered that same quarter. Now in Q2 2018, net absorption is back in the positive at 1,385,445 square-feet with no new buildings delivered this quarter.

Rental Rates – The average quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space is $4.98. This has been steadily increasing ever since it experienced a drop in Q2 2017 where it dropped from $4.61 to $4.46 in one quarter. Now at almost $5.00 per square foot of space, the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster’s rental rates for industrial space is the highest it has been since prior to Q3 2014.

Inventory – As mentioned above, no new buildings were delivered this quarter, or in all of 2018. Three buildings are currently under construction, totaling 2,951,468 square-feet of new space. It’s estimated that these properties will not be delivered until early 2019.

Lancaster Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for the Lancaster Submarket Cluster in Q2 2018 held steady at 1.9%, the same as it was in Q1 2018. In fact, it has changed minimally from the 2.0% that Q4 2017 ended with. Previous to these last three quarters, there has been a lot more change from quarter to quarter in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster’s vacancy rate. To be this low, and this consistent for three quarters indicates a stable market with supply and demand near evenly matched.

Absorption – As for net absorption, Q2 2018 ended with a positive 2,723 square-feet. This is a drop of 127,888 square feet from Q1’s net absorption of 130,611 square-feet. After experiencing two quarters of negative net absorption in Q2 and Q3 2017, and rebounding to positive 354,056 square-feet in Q4, this is now the third quarter that net absorption has continued to drop, though still a positive number – for now.

Rental Rates – The quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster took a hit this quarter when it dropped from $4.74 to $4.57 per square foot. The trend in rental rates have been up and down and up and down over the course of the last four years. While it peaked at $5.15 per square foot in Q4 2016, it has never been able to return to that high and is now trending downward, inching closer to the numbers we saw in early 2015.

Inventory – One new building was delivered this quarter, adding 35,768 square-feet of new space to the industrial market. There are no other buildings currently under construction in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster.

York/Hanover Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the York/Hanover Submarket Cluster dipped ever so slightly this quarter from 4.4% in Q1 2018 to its current 4.3%. This is the lowest vacancy has been in over a year when it was also 4.3% in Q1 2017. From that point, the vacancy rate was on the rise, peaking at 5.0% in Q4 2017, then dropping 0.6% points to 4.4% in Q1 2018.

Absorption – Q2 2018 ended with a net absorption of 125,766 square-feet. Looking at Q1’s net absorption of 396,112 square-feet, this is a drop of 270,345 square-feet in a single quarter. Between these two quarters only one new building of 30,000 square feet was delivered to the market.

Rental Rates – The Lancaster Submarket Cluster ended Q2 2018 with a quoted asking rental rate of $4.28. This is $0.14 higher than it was in Q1 and $0.22 higher than in Q4 2017. In fact, this is the highest rental rate this submarket cluster has seen since prior to Q3 2014 with it near steadily rising during that entire period.

Inventory – Only one new building was delivered in Q2 2018 and that added 30,000 square-feet of industrial space to the market. There are currently no new buildings under construction at this time.

Key Takeaways

Given all the activity taking place in the various Central PA submarket clusters, there are particular insights that are important to note. First, we can expect vacancies to remain at record lows for the remainder of 2018, despite a further uptick in new construction. Additionally, E-commerce sales grew 15.2% in Q2 2018, compared with the same time last year and now represent 9% of total sales. E-commerce will continue to be a driving force in the foreseeable future.

While indicators point to strong demand, there are headwinds increasing from labor shortages and tariffs. With the economy at or near full employment, site selection decisions and supply chain nodes may be driven out to secondary and tertiary markets. Finally, it is too early to predict the exact impact of tariffs on the industrial market, but we can look for potential declines in import and export levels.

Looking at the comparison of the three Central Pennsylvania submarket clusters, which do you feel has the strongest industrial real estate market right now? What changes do you anticipate taking place throughout the rest of 2018?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, absorption, central pa, Commercial Real Estate, costar, data, developer, industrial, inventory, investor, manufacturing, market, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty Group, pennsylvania, rental rates, report, space, statistic, trends, warehouse

Central PA Retailer Shares Challenges and Strategies for Competing with Online Retailers

Posted on July 27, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

In June, the Supreme Court ruled that states can begin to collect sales tax on web purchases. Previously, online sellers who did not have a physical presence (or “nexus”) in a given state had a perceived advantage over sellers that did. This is because these online retailers did not have to collect and remit sales tax back to the state in which the buyer lived. Rather, it was the buyer who was supposed to, at the end of the year, take all the purchases he or she made online that were not collected, calculate the sales tax, tally up the total and remit it to the state at tax time.

If we’re all being honest with ourselves, we know that it’s no stretch to say that this method for collecting sales tax for online purchases was costing states up to $33.9 billion annually in payments that were simply never made. Now that states have been given control to collect sales tax on web purchases, how will this impact our retailers? Moreover, how will this impact the use of and need for commercial retail space?

For insights we went straight to the source. Omni Realty Group interviewed Central PA retailer and owner of World Cup Ski & Cycle in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Lee Gonder. Lee is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to running a successful a local retail store and competing against online retailers. Through the questions and answers below, you will gain a better understanding of challenges brick-and-mortar retailers are up against and how the smart ones are developing strategies to provide unique benefits to customers that online retailers simply cannot replicate.

Omni Realty: As a local, brick-and-mortar retailer, how have you been impacted by online retailers?

Lee Gonder: It’s difficult to quantify the impact of online retailers in dollars, but it’s easy to see their effects in day to day business. With online retailing, the consumer no longer has to compromise on their purchase; they will go find exactly what they want. As a small, local retailer it’s impossible to stock, service or even know about every conceivable product within your industry.

In the past, you could explain the choices you made in your inventory and why they were best suited for the local consumer. Most of those educational opportunities are gone with the internet. All research is done online and the retailer is no longer the expert. With the availability of virtually any product online, not only can the consumer research their purchase, but more than likely have a direct link to be able to make the purchase. We’ve been affected on both big ticket items like bikes and skis, but we also take an incremental hit on everything from ski wax to bike chains and other accessories.

Omni: If you had to pick one thing, what would you say is your biggest competition right now?

Lee: Online retailing would have to be our biggest competition right now. In the ski industry, there are a number of domestic companies that do a good job of providing consumers with numerous options for purchase. The ski industry does a reasonable job of requiring its dealers to maintain minimum advertised pricing (MAP). With the current MAP policies it allows my business to compete on price, just bringing inventory choice in as the major obstacle to making a sale.

However, in the bike industry it is quite different. There are numerous international companies that really make competing for the consumer very difficult. The international companies are not governed by the MAP policies that we U.S. retailers are asked to abide by. Therefore, not only can we not compete in the inventory game, but quite often they have pricing that is equal to or sometimes less than my wholesale. Add in two-day free shipping, and there go a lot of my incremental parts and accessory sales.

Omni: Given the recent supreme court ruling to allow states to tax online purchases, do you think this will drive more business back to local brick-and-mortar retailers?

Lee: Simply put, no. Many of the larger online retail services, like Amazon, already have nexus in the state of PA. They already had to collect and remit sales tax. It may help curb the purchasing of some bigger ticket items, but I think the effect will be minimal.

Speaking as a retailer, it will make me rethink how I handle my webpage, which is ecommerce enabled. Now I will have to collect and remit tax to other states if I sell something on my site to an out-of-state consumer. That becomes another hurdle for a small business, to track and remit sales tax to out of state government agencies. I think for a small, local business it may indeed just make things a bit more difficult. The larger companies that have the infrastructure to handle these changes will be able to continue with their online retailing with a few internal adjustments.

Omni: How have you had to adjust your business strategy to compete with online shopping?

Lee: Our focus over the past several years has been to invest in technology or services that can’t be bought on the internet. Precision ski tuning equipment, bike fitting equipment and ski boot fitting equipment and knowledge. Some services can’t be easily addressed online, so we’ve made investments in those areas. We’ve trained the staff to sell that service, use the equipment and that is what sets us apart from the online retailer.

Conclusion

Competing against online retailers is no easy task for our local, brick-and-mortar stores. Though the Supreme Court ruling to allow states to collect sales tax on web purchases was intended to level the playing field for retailers, it’s not exactly an immediate windfall for local retailers.

However, commercial real estate professionals could see a boost in demand for commercial retail space as both conventional and online retailers may put more stock in brick-and-mortar locations since there is no longer an advantage to not having a physical location in each state. In fact, being closer and more accessible to customers will become an even greater advantage for retailers.

For this reason, commercial real estate remains a critical aspect of any retailer’s business strategy. Location, visibility and flow of space has a profound impact on how customers find you and their customer service experience. Retailers who wish to remain competitive against online retailers, or even other brick-and-mortar retailers, should closely consider whether their commercial space is meeting the needs of the business and their customer base.

Through the insights shared in this article, it’s obvious that local retail businesses will continue to face some unique challenges, even after the Supreme Court ruling on online sales tax. Being strategic with the location and type of commercial retail space a business invests in can help deliver exceptional customer service, and in turn earn more business!

Do you agree or disagree that something more should be done to level the playing field between online retailers and local retailers? Share your ideas or ask a question by leaving a comment below!

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Does Your Commercial Real Estate Property Qualify for Section 110 Construction Allowances?

Posted on June 11, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Section 110 of the current Internal Revenue Code (IRC) provides an interesting opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords alike. Essentially Section 110, in certain instances, allows commercial tenants to make improvements to their leased workspace with the benefit of not having to recognize income for any cash payments or rent reductions that are expressly identified in the lease as qualified Section 110 allowances. Additionally, under a qualified Section 110 provision, the landlord will be treated as the owner of the constructed improvements and entitled to depreciation deductions as nonresidential real estate.

The purpose of this tax provision is to provide a set of rules for certain construction allowances, in which the tax reporting and treatment will be consistent between the lessor and lessee. It’s important to understand the nuances of Section 110 that determine whether such improvements qualify. Qualified property is nonresidential real estate which is part of, or present at, “retail space,” which property reverts to the lessor at the termination of the lease. The term of the lease must be 15 years or less, applying certain rules.

For most commercial landlords and their tenants, it can be overwhelming to understand how and when it’s appropriate to take advantage of Section 110. If you find that you’re uncertain as to whether your situation qualifies, don’t let this be the reason you forfeit this potential tax break altogether. When used properly, Section 110 can offer a huge benefit to both parties, allowing tenants to enjoy an upgraded, functional workspace, and allowing landlords the ability to improve their commercial property.

Take a moment to answer these questions to determine if your property might qualify under Section 110. To help us answer, we’ve enlisted the expertise of Jim Holland, Certified Public Accountant (CPA) to offer insight into qualifying for this tax deduction. *It’s important to keep in mind that these are simplified questions and answers. More details may be necessary to fully assess your situation.

Is my space considered “retail?”

If you leased, occupied or use space in your trade of selling tangible personal property (i.e. products or goods) or services to the general public, this is considered retail space. You qualify!

Am I in a short-term lease?

If your lease, with extensions, is not greater than 15 years in length this is considered a short-term lease. You qualify!

Am I constructing qualified long-term real property for use in my trade or business?

If you construct nonresidential improvements (sec 1250 property vs. sec 1245 property) which revert to the lessor (i.e. landlord or person leasing you the space) at termination of the lease, the answer to this question is yes. You qualify! A note of caution: if the lessor chooses to use a cost-segregation study to reallocate the costs, a different language must be used in the lease agreement.

Who will ultimately own the improvements to the property?

To adhere to the requirements under Section 110, your lease must specifically indicate that the lessor retains ownership of all improvements to the property. In this case…you qualify!

Do I have an official agreement between the tenant and landlord?

If you have obtained a signed agreement, before payment or before the reduction in rent begins, from the lessor to lessee…you qualify!

Will the allowance be expended in the tax year it is received?

If the full amount of your construction allowance is expended within 8 and 1/2 months after the close of the tax year…you qualify!

Will both the landlord and the tenant disclose this information with their tax returns?

In order to fulfill this requirement, you must disclose both the landlord and tenants names, addresses, employer IDs, location, and amount reported on both lessee and lessor tax returns. In doing so…you qualify!

Does the Safe-Harbor Exclusion apply?

If you have met all of the above requirements, the safe-harbor exclusion applies to your situation. You qualify!

As you can see, Section 110 provides a valuable opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords to improve their spaces while each receiving a benefit for doing so. If you meet the requirements, and it makes sense for your situation, taking advantage of the Section 110 tax breaks could open up new possibilities to create the commercial space you’ve dream about having! The most important thing to keep in mind is that you must be aware of the requirements to qualify under Section 110 in order to receive the maximum benefit. Speak to a professional advisor before entering any contract or commitment.

*General Disclaimer: These are simplified answers and your situation may be more complicated. This document is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.

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Major Trends Impacting Central PA’s Retail Real Estate Market in 2018

Posted on May 24, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

For Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market, things are off to a, well, interesting start. The market has seen its fair share of ups and downs in recent quarters, and 2018 is no exception. On one hand, major retailers continue to shutter brick and mortar locations across the Susquehanna Valley. At the same time, other retailers are making the move into new locations. It can be hard to grasp what’s really going on in the market. Does the good outweigh the bad? What will the next quarter bring? The next year? For the answers, we turn to an expert.

Senior Market Analyst with CoStar Group, Chris LeBarton covers commercial real estate data in markets stretching from Western Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area, up through Central Pennsylvania for CoStar’s Market Analytics platform. His insight and expertise are helpful for understanding not only where the market currently stands, but how it’s likely to move in the future.

Chris joins Mike Kushner of Omni Realty Group for a Q&A series where we specifically look at the current state of Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market – as well as trends and challenges that stand to reshape things in 2018 and beyond. Here’s how Chris answers our most pressing questions.

Omni: With a net absorption of almost 95,000 SF, the Harrisburg East Retail submarket had a great bounce back quarter in Q1 2018 after four consecutive featuring net move outs. Can you elaborate on the various factors contributing to this?

Chris LeBarton: Retail leasing on the east side of Harrisburg has been fairly whippy this cycle, and certainly since 2015. So, putting too much stock into it is unwise. Minus Hobby Lobby’s move into almost 70,000 SF at Colonial Commons, this looks like less of a win. With that said, there are some strong pockets of buying power (median household income x households) in this submarket, including parts surrounding Colonial Park. In fact, Dauphin County has been one of the faster-growing counties in Pennsylvania since 2010.

Omni: What were the largest lease deals that took place in Central PA’s (Harrisburg East and Harrisburg West) retail real estate market in Q1 2018?

Chris LeBarton: Hobby Lobby’s move-in was the standout for sure, but there were a couple other sizable deals in the region. There was 15,000 SF leased in Carlisle on Newville Road and Ideal Auto Body absorbed 11,000 SF in Hanover. Also, Generations of Furniture signed a three-year deal on roughly 8,100 SF in Lancaster.

Omni: Amidst recent, massive retail closings, how would you say Central PA has responded/rebounded? What factors contribute to your assessment?

Chris LeBarton: Few areas are immune to the wave of big-box retail closings; stores like Kmart, Sears, Boscov’s, Macy’s and Toys R Us were once ubiquitous across the country. But a review of the biggest names shows fairly limited exposure in Central PA. Simply based on population density, natural tourism corridors, and buying power, this region isn’t swimming in malls and power centers. A review of a dozen or so metro areas inside Central Pennsylvania shows that, overall, vacancies are largely where they were coming out of the crash and in some cases improved.

In addition, several retailers that did not have a presence in Central Pennsylvania have absorbed space vacated by some of the big box closings. Stein Mart, Home Goods, and Hobby Lobby moved into the former Kmart on the Carlisle Pike. In Lower Paxton Township, Hobby Lobby opened in the former Giant Foods location and Giant moved across the road to the space vacated by Gander Mountain. At the Capital City Mall, Field and Stream moved into the former Toys R Us location. Overall, Central PA should feel encouraged that the region was no by means hit the hardest, compared to others. In fact, some significant regrowth has occurred as a result of many of these retail closings.

Omni: In your opinion, what are some of the future trends you expect to see in the Central PA retail real estate market?

Chris LeBarton: Mixed-use projects offering at least live-play (work there, or nearby, is an added bonus) with smart ground floor retail are all the rage. If areas outside of the major urban centers want to grow their population, they need to think about approving these types of projects. Naturally occurring affordable housing is becoming a big draw for those who want a nice place to live, but don’t want the high price tag. Developers who are trying to overcome the challenges of rising land and labor costs are looking more and more at secondary and tertiary markets, and there’s no reason Harrisburg can’t accommodate small-to-midsized projects with local/authentic retailers.

Another trend on the rise is related to the last piece of the “last mile” industrial craze and e-commerce. Central Pennsylvania is booming with warehouse and distribution construction; as a result, the biggest population centers in the region may see retailers testing new concepts here. Amazon Key, a home delivery service, opened in close to 40 cities last fall, and Walmart is doing all it can to keep up with the biggest player in the space. It would be reasonable to think that such trends could make their way to the Central PA retail real estate market as well.

While technology and the shift in the way consumers prefer to shop and purchase goods has had a significant impact retail real estate, we can expect the market to react and adapt – just like any industry must to stay afloat. The key to survival is for retailers to stay in front of emerging trends, keep an eye on competitors, and be willing to evolve.

How do you feel Central PA is responding to the changes and challenges taking place in the local retail real estate market? Are you more hopeful or more concerned? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

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How Commercial Real Estate Owners and Investors Can Capitalize on the Co-Working Movement

Posted on May 9, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Office Leasing, Trends No Comments

To younger generations who are making up more and more of our work force every day, work is no longer a physical space, but rather an activity that, for better or worse, can be taken nearly everywhere we go. For this reason, the movement toward co-working spaces has emerged in virtually every city that has a business industry. Co-working is present here in Central Pennsylvania with spaces like the Park and St@rtUp in Harrisburg, the Candy Factory in Lancaster and the Techcelerator in Carlisle, to name just a few.

Even though co-working spaces are present in Central Pennsylvania, the majority of our workplaces are still modeled after the “old” economy assembly line, where workflow was linear and corporate structures were hierarchical. For commercial real estate owners and investors who want to capitalize on the growing demand for co-working spaces, here’s what you need to know.

Understand how the modern day “office” has changed

Foremost, we must take a step back to understand how the modern day “office” has vastly changed from what was desired decades ago. Simply put, stop thinking like a baby boomer! Nearly 10,000 baby boomers retire every year. It’s estimated that millennials will comprise the largest segment of our work force (75 percent to be precise) within the next decade.

If you’re a commercial real estate landlord or investor, you know the importance of understanding your clients’ wants and needs. So let’s examine what millennials want out of an office. First, the word “office” isn’t really appropriate anymore. What’s desired is a workspace that in one instance can provide quiet and solitude for “head-down” work, and the very next moment, provide an energizing and collaborative group work environment. Should it come as a surprise that millennials want it all without having to commit to one style of space? This brings us to the next important point, which is design.

Design spaces that quickly adapt to changing needs

Co-working spaces are high on function and that means being able to quickly adapt to a variety of work situations. In a single day, a business and its employees may need quiet, private work stations where people can work independently; open, collaborative space where people can work in groups; and traditional meeting space where people can meet with clients. Over time, growing businesses also desire the ability to easily accommodate more employees without having to uproot and find a bigger office every few months.

With traditional office space, businesses usually have to settle for dysfunctional work spaces that don’t quite fit the number of employees or their work styles. As a result, employees are less efficient, communication is disjointed and company culture suffers. For those who own or invest in commercial real estate, the focus needs to be on redesigning traditional office space to function more like a co-working space. This means large, open work areas where employees can interact and collaborate. Also, look for furniture that can be easily reconfigured as often as needed to provide more work spaces and private offices for independent work and meetings. These features will be huge selling points for businesses who want an office that will meet their immediate needs as well as grow with them.

Offer shared amenities to attract and retain tenants

The good news about co-working spaces is that people get used to sharing amenities. Multiple businesses working in the same building could all benefit from a shared conference room, snack bar, lounge or gym. While this would be far too much for any one of these businesses to individually afford in their own office, a building that provides all tenants with access to such amenities has quite a leg up over the competition.

Look at how Google and Apple have designed “campuses” for their employees. You can create the same effect out of your office building. Give businesses a place to interact with other businesses. Now you not only offer work space, you offer networking and business development opportunities for all!

Deliver a seamless experience – even if it comes at a premium

By adding luxury amenities to your office building, like mentioned above, you give businesses a seamless experience. Their employees will have incentive to do more at the office, even if that is relaxing, eating or exercising. Best of all, this higher level of employee engagement comes at a premium. Businesses will pay more for office spaces that keep employees happy, healthy and invested in their jobs. When you invest in adding luxury amenities to you work spaces, you will stand out among the competition and be able to charge more for your space.

Focus on building your own brand!

If you want to engage the growing millennial workforce, you need to pay attention to your brand. This demographic is used to polished and prominent branding. If you want to attract them to your office space, you need to present them with a brand worth buying into. Many co-working spaces brand themselves with a trendy name and logo. They have professional websites and a strong social media presence. How does your “brand” compare? Any effort put into properly branding your properties will bring exponential benefits as time goes on.

Which of these tips do you believe is most valuable to commercial real estate owners and investors capitalizing on the growing trend of co-working spaces?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below!

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10 Facts Any Commercial Real Estate Investor Should Know about Central PA’s Industrial Market

Posted on April 30, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market No Comments

10 Facts Any Commercial Real Estate Investor Should Know about Central PA’s Industrial Market

Central PA’s industrial real estate market is unique for a variety of different reasons. Taking into consideration its geographic, demographic and economic factors, we’ve compiled a list of what we feel are the most important facts worth knowing about our local industrial market.

If you are a commercial real estate investor, or simply someone who wants to know more about Central Pennsylvania’s commercial real estate market, you are sure to find this list of top 10 facts both valuable and interesting. Let’s take a look!

Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA is 3rd most populous in PA and 43rd most populous in U.S.

The Harrisburg-York-Lebanon Combined Statistical Area (CSA) is made up of six counties and includes four metropolitan areas in Central Pennsylvania. In 2010, the CSA’s population was 1,233,708 people, making it the 3^rd most populous CSA in PA and the 43rd most populous CSA in the U.S. The Harrisburg-York-Lebanon CSA includes the following Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs): Harrisburg-Carlisle, Lebanon, Gettysburg and York-Hanover.

Harrisburg area puts up strong competition against Lehigh Valley.

Though Lehigh Valley is commonly recognized as Pennsylvania’s leader in warehousing and distribution, Harrisburg delivered only 600,000 SF less than Allentown in 2017, while also generating roughly the same rent growth. Additionally, companies such as Whirlpool, Amazon, Ace Hardware, FedEx, Kohler, and Lindt Chocolates have set up large-scale warehouse and distribution centers in Harrisburg – and those tenants account for just a portion of more than 16 million SF of net absorption.

Harrisburg-Carlisle and Lancaster Ranked Among Leaders in National Job Growth

Of the 25 metro areas with the fastest job growth, as of August 2017, both Harrisburg-Carlisle and Lancaster placed on this competitive list. Lancaster ranked number 24 for its steady growth as it diversifies its economy and renovates its downtown and industrial areas. In six months Lancaster added 3,100 new jobs, bringing its total employment to 252,400 and 2017 growth rate to 1.23%. Harrisburg-Carlisle ranked number 8 on the list with 6,200 new jobs added in the first two quarters of 2017, bringing total employment to 346,100 and 2017 growth rate to 1.82%. Noted was the area’s diverse group of healthcare, technology and biotechnology businesses.

Prime location for warehousing and distribution.

Central Pennsylvania is a premiere market for industrial space for several compelling reasons. For businesses who need easy and affordability storing and shipping of products, the areas offers a great roadway system, an abundant work force, relatively inexpensive and available raw land, and the ability to reach 70 to 80 percent of the U.S. population in 24 hours. Additionally, our government regulations on warehousing and distribution are comparatively easy and straightforward compared to other nearby states or regions.

Four of the 10 Select Top Industrial Leases in Q4 2017 took place in the Harrisburg market.

According to CoStar’s Q4 report for 2017, Harrisburg east and west markets represented the majority of top industrial leases signed that year. Prologis Carlisle (1,029,600 SF), Goodman Logistics Center Carlisle (1,007,868 SF), Prologis Harrisburg (623,143 SF) and Carlisle Distribution Center (575,000 SF) were all leased to different businesses who were looking to grow their industrial real estate space in Central Pennsylvania. This activity indicates economic growth and interest in Central PA’s industrial real estate market, both from businesses and real estate investors.

Lancaster market has the highest quoted rental rate for industrial space in Central PA at $4.69 per SF.

Even though Lancaster’s quoted rental rate for industrial space decreased by $0.45 per SF than where it was at the end of Q4 2016, it still comes in higher than Central PA’s other surrounding submarkets. At $4.69 per SF, Lancaster is $1.41 per SF higher than Lebanon, $0.03 per SF higher than Harrisburg/Carlisle, $0.08 per SF higher than Gettysburg and $0.67 per SF higher than York/Hanover based on Q4 2017.

Lancaster also has the lowest vacancy rate for industrial space in Central PA at just 2.0%.

Lancaster ended Q4 2017 with the lowest vacancy rate of all surrounding submarkets. Compared to Lancaster’s vacancy rate of 2.0%, Lebanon came in at 15.8%, Harrisburg/Carlisle at 6.8% and York/Hanover at 4.9% based on Q4 2017. Though Gettysburg did end 2017 with a vacancy rate of 0.4%, it’s important to note this submarket has just 78 buildings with a combined 4,372,179 SF of existing inventory which places it at a much different level than the other submarkets, comparatively.

Within the MSA, Harrisburg/Carlisle has the largest SF of industrial space under construction at 1,813,468 SF.

Two significantly large industrial projects will soon result in the addition of 1,813,468 SF to the Harrisburg/Carlisle submarket. Comparatively, Lebanon has three buildings under construction with a combined 1,310,195 SF of space, Lancaster has two buildings under construction with a combined 76,486 SF of space, York/Hanover has two buildings under construction with a combined 895,000 SF of space and Gettysburg has no new industrial space under construction. For Central PA as a whole, that equals 4,095,149 SF of new industrial space that will soon be delivered to the market.

Harrisburg/Carlisle’s ended 2017 with a positive net absorption of 2,700,108 SF.

According to CoStar’s Q4 2017 industrial market report, Harrisburg/Carlisle ended the year with the highest, positive net absorption we’ve seen since prior to 2014. At 2,700,180 SF, this is significantly higher than any other quarter that year, especially Q2 where the net absorption dropped to negative 499,576 SF. Additionally is Q4 2017, one new building was delivered to the market, adding 1,100,000 SF of space. Even with this influx of inventory, the net absorption rose by 2,083,756 SF. The new building that was delivered is Whirlpool’s new distribution facility located at 100 Fry Drive, Mechanicsburg.

Influx of State and Federal dollars will continue to improve transportation in and around Central PA.

The Trump administration has recently been touting a $1.5 trillion, 10-year public-private plan to improve roads, bridges, ports and other infrastructures across the nation. Central Pennsylvania has plans to utilize some of this federal funding to bolster its priority projects which include fixing structurally deficient bridges and widening interstates. Improvement to our roadways and infrastructure will improve public safety, create construction jobs and make Central PA an even more attractive location for warehousing and distribution.

After reading through these top 10 facts any commercial real estate investor should know about Central PA’s industrial market, you are likely to have some comments or questions of your own.

Start a discussion by leaving a comment below!

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How Central PA Health Systems are Rethinking Real Estate

Posted on March 21, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Guest Blogger, Healthcare, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Major changes are taking place in America’s health systems and we are starting to see the impact of some of these changes right here in Central Pennsylvania. Hospitals are no longer the desired “hub” for healthcare, rather free-standing emergency rooms, 24-hour emergency care centers and walk-in clinics are helping to keep people out of the hospital, while expediting their care.

Additionally, telemedicine is reshaping the need for brick and mortar facilities, placing a new emphasis on health systems acquiring “virtual” real estate. These emerging trends are intended to increase access to quality healthcare while allowing health systems to reduce overhead.

To help us answer some of the most important questions surrounding the changes taking place in Central PA’s health systems, we interviewed two guests who are highly knowledgeable on this very topic.

Christian Caicedo MD, MBA, CPE, FACHE is the System Senior Vice President and President of the Cumberland Division at UPMC Pinnacle. Paul Toburen, also with UPMC Pinnacle, is the Senior Vice President of Facilities and Support Services.

With a combined, vast experience in health systems operations, Dr. Caicedo and Mr. Toburen collaborate to lend their insights into how Central Pennsylvania’s health systems are rethinking the way they use commercial real estate.

Omni: Looking at how Central PA’s health systems currently function, what are some of the biggest challenges?

Christian/Paul: One of the most critical challenges we face in Central PA is access to care – not just any access, but the right kind of access. It’s a moving target we are trying to hit. Patients want access to fairly and competitively priced healthcare, in the right setting, with quality resources and skilled staff.

The challenge stems from the fact that we are all trying to live in two worlds: the fee for service world and the value based world. We can’t have it both ways and also provide access to quality healthcare to everyone in Central PA. There has to be a compromise somewhere.

Omni: As Central PA’s health systems see more and more value in serving the outpatient market, what strategies must be implemented to make this shift?

Christian/Paul: The key to shifting our focus to better serve the outpatient market is to make simple and immediate access to healthcare available to patients right where they are. Rather than asking patients to come to us in traditional office and hospital environments, we need to have access points in the work place, malls, retail spaces, home, etc. Health systems are now trying to acquire more virtual real estate than they are brick and mortar locations. This is evident by the more than 120 rural hospitals who have shut their doors since 2005!

Omni: With the use of telemedicine becoming more prevalent in our health systems, what are the pros and cons of diagnosing patients in their home?

Christian/Paul: The pros, as we touched upon above, will be the ease of access and convenience to the patient. It will allow physicians to see more patients in a day, reducing patient wait time and reducing patients exposure to germs and infections. Additionally, telemedicine is a great option for Medicaid recipients.

The cons, well that will evolve as the technology changes. Currently there are limitations as to the level of evaluation one can conduct via the virtual encounter. As technology evolves, (i.e. Haptic pressure feedback) we will have greater ability to perform better virtual exams and arrive at an accurate diagnosis through telemedicine.

Omni: Specifically, how will telemedicine impact brick and mortar healthcare facilities?

Christian/Paul: Simply put, the growing use of telemedicine will diminish the need for brick and mortar facilities and drive the demand for virtual real estate. If done thoughtfully and strategically, this should be a win for both patients and health systems. Speaking from the health systems standpoint, we can save a lot of overhead while providing patients with faster, more convenient care. Hospitals will stay play an important role in the overall health system, it’s just going to look a little different in the future.

Omni: What Central PA health systems do you feel are leading the way in rethinking how they use real estate?

Christian/Paul: We believe all Central PA health systems are rethinking the way we use real estate. The cost of construction continues to escalate. We are now looking at lease agreements versus building-to-own along with repurposing existing buildings to accommodate our current needs, but having flexibility for future needs as well. Speed to the market is critical in today’s healthcare industry, as we must accommodate the patients’ needs.

Given the transformation taking place in Central Pennsylvania’s health systems, and health systems worldwide, how do you feel about the changes taking place and where they will lead us in the future?

Join in the conversation by sharing your thoughts or questions!

###

More about Christian Caicedo: Christian Caicedo MD, MBA, CPE, FACHE is the System Senior Vice President and President of the Cumberland Division, UPMC Pinnacle. He is the former Vice President of Operations and Medical Director for West Shore Hospital, and Interim Chief Medical Officer, Pinnacle Health System. He has served as Executive Director of Emergency Services and served as Clinical Director for Community Campus Emergency Department, Pinnacle Health System. Dr. Caicedo also served as medical director for Swatara Emergency Medical Services, and was a member of the Swatara EMS board of directors. Currently, he serves as Medical Director for Susquehanna EMS.

More about Paul Toburen: Paul Toburen is currently serving as Senior Vice President for Facilities and Support Services for the UPMC Pinnacle Health System. Paul oversees fourteen departments with a primary focus on Construction Management and Real Estate. Paul has obtained his MBA and MS and is a member of the ACHE, ASHE, COAA, IFMA among other organizations.

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Central Pennsylvania Office Real Estate Made Few Gains in 2017

Posted on February 19, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Office Leasing No Comments

Vacancy rates in the local office market remained mostly stagnant moving into the New Year.

If the saying “no news is good news” can be applied to Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market, then 2017 was a good year indeed! We closed out 2017 with few noticeable gains and mostly stagnant vacancy and rental rates. On a positive note this means there were no lasting drops to cause volatility to the market; however, if “stagnant” remains an ongoing theme for our local office real estate market in 2018, we may have some cause for concern.

Let’s take a look at some key data for our three local submarket clusters: Harrisburg/Carlisle, Lancaster and York/Hanover. You will see that each experienced its own ebb and flow with some submarket clusters faring better than others at the close of fourth quarter 2017. The most important question to consider when looking at this data is: “What submarket is poised to perform the best in 2018 and what does that mean for commercial real estate and our local economy?”

Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The office vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster increased to 6.3% at the end of the fourth quarter 2017. The vacancy rate was 5.8% at the end of the third quarter 2017, 5.9% at the end of the second quarter 2017, and 6.5% at the end of the first quarter 2017, placing it just shy of where we began the year.

Absorption – Net absorption for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster was a negative (135,877) square feet in the fourth quarter 2017. That compares to positive 25,603 square feet in the third quarter 2017, negative (6,036) square feet in the second quarter 2017, and positive 22,829 square feet in the first quarter 2017.

Largest Lease Signing – The largest lease signing occurring in 2017 was the 57,764 square foot lease signed by Pennsylvania Health and Wellness, Inc. at 300 Corporate Center Drive located in Camp Hill.

Rental Rates – The average quoted asking rental rate for available office space, all classes, was $18.12 per square foot per year at the end of the fourth quarter 2017 in the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster. This represented a .89% increase in quoted rates from the end of the third quarter 2017, when rents were reported at $17.96 per square foot.

Inventory – Throughout 2017, a total of two new office buildings were delivered to the market with a combined total of 73,000 square feet. At the close of the fourth quarter, two additional buildings remained under construction with a combined total of 70,000 square feet of inventory yet to be delivered.

Lancaster Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The vacancy rates for the Lancaster Submarket Cluster in 2017 held steady for the first three quarters at 6.0%. Only in fourth quarter 2017 did we see the slightest movement in vacancy to 6.1%. Since its dip to 5.3% in third quarter 2016, the vacancy rate has returned to its recent historical average where it continues to remain stable.

Absorption – In the fourth quarter of 2017, net absorption dropped into the negatives for the first time all year, ending 2017 at negative (13,391) square feet. Net absorption was 2,462 square feet in third quarter 2017, 101,013 square feet in second quarter 2017 and 16,187 square feet in first quarter 2017.

Rental Rates – Even with a drop in net absorption and only a slight increase in vacancy rates, the quoted asking rental rate for available office space, all classes, in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster continued to increase throughout 2017. In the first quarter the quoted rental rate was $16.63, $17.13 in the second quarter, $17.20 in the third quarter and $17.46 in the fourth quarter. This is the highest quoted rental the Lancaster Submarket Cluster has experienced since prior to 2014.

Inventory – Two new office buildings were delivered to the Lancaster Submarket Cluster in 2017. Both delivered in the second quarter and combined they added a total of 113,000 square feet of new office space.

York/Hanover Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The fourth quarter office vacancy rate for the York/Hanover Submarket Cluster held steady at 5.9%, the same as it was in the third quarter. This is slightly higher than the 5.6% vacancy rate in the second quarter and the 5.8% vacancy rate in the first quarter.

Absorption – The fourth quarter ended with a net absorption of 1,400 square feet. This is an increase from the third quarter’s negative (29,853) square feet that was a significant drop from the second quarter’s 15,646 square feet the first quarter 2017’s 31,636 square feet. This is the only increase in net absorption the market experienced in 2017.

Rental Rates – 2017 started off with a fairly steady quoted asking rental rate for available office space, all classes, of $17.40 per square foot. It increased by $0.01 in the second quarter to $17.41 and spiked in the third quarter at $18.05. Though still higher than the first two quarters, 2017 finished with a slight dip in quoted rental rates as it fell to $17.74.

Inventory – No new office buildings were delivered in the York/Hanover Submarket Cluster in 2017. There is one building under construction with a total RBA of 840 square feet.

Looking at the comparison of the three Central Pennsylvania submarket clusters, which do you feel is in the best position to start making some moves in 2018? Share your ideas by leaving a comment below.

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Central Pennsylvania Industrial Real Estate Report for Q2 2017

Posted on July 17, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Net absorption falls by 3.5 million square-feet with more space to come!

In the first quarter of 2017, the Central Pennsylvania industrial real estate market* gained more than two million square-feet of new space. Now into the second quarter, the rate at which we’re adding new space has slowed, but the market is still trying to absorb what was dumped into it earlier this year. As a result, net absorption fell into the negatives, decreasing by more than 3.5 million square-feet from last quarter. The vacancy rate also rose by more than a whole percentage point. Most interestingly, the quoted rental rate actually rose by a penny, placing it back near the recent record high we saw at the end of 2016.

How does this all tie together and what does it mean for the future of Central Pennsylvania’s industrial real estate market? Take a look!

SELECT YEAR-TO-DATE DELIVERIES

As far as new deliveries, Q2 slowed considerably from what we experienced in Q1. Within the first quarter of 2017, Central Pennsylvania received five new industrial properties, totaling a combined 2,244,371 square-feet of space. Now in the second quarter, just three new buildings were completed and added a total of 1349,697 square-feet to the market. Two of these buildings ranked among CoStar’s top 15 select-year-to-date deliveries. Goodman Logistics Center, Building 2 in Carlisle was completed this quarter, adding 938,828 square-feet of unleased space to the market. The other building, located at 53 Commerce Drive in Mechanicsburg, delivered 340,869 square-feet of space, which is 40% occupied.

SELECT TOP UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROPERTIES

Looking forward, Central Pennsylvania stands to gain a considerable amount of new industrial space in the coming year. Five properties are under construction and are set to be delivered later this year and into 2018. The largest is located at 100 Fry Drive in Mechanicsburg with 1.1 million square-feet of fully preleased space that will be completed next quarter. The second largest is Orchard Business Park II, Building A, in York with 780,000 square-feet of unleased space that will be completed in the fourth quarter of 2017. Additionally, the former Quaker Oats manufacturing and distribution facility, located at 485 St. Johns Church Road in Hampden Township, is being renovated into a smaller, modern warehouse facility. The renovation and expansion work will be done by April 2018, and the new warehouse section will be done by next July.

SELECT TOP SALES

Within the last two months, three buildings in Carlisle have sold, totaling an exchange of 2,222,121 square-feet of industrial space. The largest is the Ames True Temper Building with 1,226,525 square-feet which sold for $90,150,000 to Clarion Partners. Located at 1 Ames Drive in Carlisle is 595,000 square-feet of industrial space that sold to UPS for $55 million. Finally, at 100 Louis Parkway, 400,596 square-feet of space sold to Industrial Property Trust for $28,850,000.

ABSORPTION

Net absorption fell significantly this quarter, plummeting to a negative 1,1446,892 square-feet. This is a large drop from the positive net absorption of 2,402,682 square-feet we saw just last quarter. This is the lowest net absorption has been since prior to 2013. With five buildings delivered last quarter, three delivered this quarter, and five more under construction, the rise or fall of future net absorption will be mostly determined by the ability to lease out all of this new space.

VACANCY & RENTAL RATES

As you might expect, based upon other trends, Central Pennsylvania’s vacancy rate for industrial space rose from 4.7% last quarter to 5.8% this quarter. Vacant space also rose by more than 3 million square-feet. Even with negative net absorption and an increase in vacancy rate, the quoted rental rate rose ever so slightly. It is now $4.34, nearly back to the recent record high we experienced at the end of 2016 when it reached $4.36. It will be interesting to watch how the market reacts to the recent influx of new space, further impacting the vacancy and rental rates for Q3 and beyond.

What trend from the second quarter did you find most interesting or impactful to Central Pennsylvania industrial space? Share your insights by leaving a comment below.

*For the purposes of this article, the Central Pennsylvania market is defined as Dauphin, Cumberland, York, Lancaster and Adams Counties.

Learn more from past market reports:

Central Pennsylvania Industrial Real Estate Report for Q1 2017

Amidst Massive Retail Closings, Central PA Commercial Real Estate Continues to Grow

Central PA’s Office Real Estate Market Hangs on to Low Vacancy, Slows Down on Net Absorption

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Amidst Massive Retail Closings, Central PA Commercial Real Estate Continues to Grow

Posted on June 26, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

We’ve watched it on the news, read about it in the papers and have seen it in person. Several large retailers in Central Pennsylvania have made the decision to close their doors, such as Sears, Kmart, and hh gregg, as well as a growing list of other retailers struggling to stay in the black.

The landscape of retail real estate is changing, and with that the market is reacting. While some retailers are looking to move out of brick-and-mortar locations, other mega brands like Amazon are looking to move in. What does this mean for the future of retail real estate, specifically here in Harrisburg, York and Lancaster? Let’s take a look at changes that have taken place and trends that have emerged over the last 12 months.

Harrisburg

The Harrisburg retail market has gained 162,000 square-feet of new space in the last 12 months. However, in this same amount of time, the market was only able to absorb 110,000 square-feet, causing the total net absorption for the quarter to drop to a negative 153,000 square-feet. The 4.2% vacancy rate is an increase from the recent low we saw in Q1 2017, when it dipped down to 3.7%. Though the market has 0.0% rent growth, there has been $82M in sales that is almost double the historical average of $52M. Harrisburg has just 1 under-construction retail property that will be delivered in 2017 and will add 12,000 square-feet of unleased space to the market. Though we have recently seen quite a few closings of retail locations, there remains more than 20 proposed projects for new retail space including general retail, community centers and strip malls.

York

The York retail market has gained 27,000 square-feet of new retail space over the last year, with a 12-month net absorption of 152,000 square-feet. The total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 10,000 square-feet. York’s vacancy rate is a bit higher than Harrisburg’s at 5.7%, but over the past 12 months, it has decreased by 0.6%. The market experienced a very small rent growth of 0.1% and did $19M in sales in 12 months’ time. York County has 4 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 264,217 square-feet of mostly unleased space to the market.

Lancaster

In Lancaster County, 34,000 square-feet of new retail space was delivered to the market in the last 12 months. The 12-month net absorption is 169,000 square-feet and the total net absorption for the current quarter is negative 13,000 square-feet. Lancaster’s vacancy rate is much lower than York and Harrisburg, coming in at 2.4%. In the last 12 months the vacancy rate has decreased by 0.6%, reaching its lowest point back in Q4 2016 when it was 2.3%. Like Harrisburg, Lancaster did not experience a rent growth in the last 12 months, but did do $39M in sales. Lancaster County has 5 under-construction retail properties that will be delivered in 2017-2018 and will add 159,500 square-feet of space to the market, more than half of which is preleased.

Trends & Overview

In the current market, each city has its strengths and weaknesses. Harrisburg has the highest 12-month sales of the three, but the lowest net absorption for the current quarter. Lancaster has the lowest vacancy rate of the three, but has relatively unimpressive new construction projects, sales and rental growth. York has the most new retail space scheduled to be delivered in the next few years, but has the lowest 12-month sales of the three.

All things considered, each market appears to be stable and poised for additional growth. Vacancy rates have remained mostly the same or experienced a decrease, the markets are demonstrating their ability to absorb most of the new space that is being delivered, and there continues to be under-construction projects and plan for new space. These indicators provide us with confidence that real estate investors, developers and retailers continue to see value in doing business in Central Pennsylvania.

Between Harrisburg, York and Lancaster, the area offers some unique benefits including more space and at a lower cost compared to big cities. We are also a main corridor for commuters and travelers going to New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Washington, D.C. Simply put, Central Pennsylvania has the right combination of resources and advantages to remain a vibrant location for retail growth.

Do you agree? What Central PA market is having the best year so far? Share your thoughts by commenting below!

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