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Growing Demand for “Live-Work-Play” Communities in Central PA

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Community, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Photo: Walden in Mechanicsburg, PA

If you’ve been a resident of Central Pennsylvania for more than a few years, you’ve likely seen various live-work-play (LWP) communities – maybe you even live in one. What we’re talking about it mixed-use commercial and residential real estate where people have the opportunity to live, work and play (shop, dine, etc.) all in a relatively close distance to one another. A great example is the Walden community in Mechanicsburg, but there are many others that we will examine in this article.

To help us explore this growing trend, we turned to Chris LeBarton who is a Senior Market Analyst with CoStar Group. Chris covers commercial real estate data in Western Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area, up through Central Pennsylvania for CoStar’s Market Analytics platform.

Chris joins Mike Kushner of Omni Realty Group for a Q&A series where we specifically look at the growing demand for LWP communities in Central PA – and what this means for CRE professionals. Here is how Chris answers our most pressing questions.

Omni: When did the LWP trend begin and how has it grown?

Chris LeBarton: The earliest usage of LWP spaces I can find was in 2005. The trend really started to grow in popularity leading up to the market crash, but there’s no correlation between the two that I can see. The term “live-work-play” was very likely used prior to that, but I’m guessing the branding of mixed-use development really took off as concepts of ‘walkable urbanism’ and ‘Transit Oriented Development’ (TOD) exploded across the country.

According to the Urban Land Institute’s Mixed-Use Development Handbook, which was published in 2003, mixed-use development: provides three or more significant revenue-producing uses (such as retail/entertainment, office, residential, hotel, and/or civic/cultural/recreation); fosters integration, density, and compatibility of land uses, and; creates a walkable community with uninterrupted pedestrian connections.

Omni: Describe a LWP community in Central PA.

Chris LeBarton: First, let’s clarify what a LWP community really is, and what it is not. Some economic development entities and marketing types play pretty fast and loose with the term. An area can be a really nice place to live, work and play in, but if there’s over a mile or so between one element of the triad and the other two legs of the stool aren’t in the same building/development, it’s not really a LWP dynamic. Of course, the likelihood that most people who live in one of these communities also works in the same office/industrial park nearby is fairly low. But being able to do all three and be largely reliant on public transportation or your own two feet is really the spirit of the LWP concept.

Another key element to understand is that LWP is not at all relegated to a city environment. In fact, part of these projects’ collective appeal is that they can recreate a city environment without being in the hustle and bustle of a CBD. Specifically in Central Pennsylvania, there are a number of LWP developments. Here are just a few:

Lime Spring Square (Lancaster/Hempfield Township): A multi-phase, mixed-use campus being developed by Oaktree Development Group, the end result will include over 100,000 SF of retail, several hundred high-end apartments, and components of office, medical and industrial space. Penn State Health has a 76,000 SF medical office building there, while PDQ Industries is expanding operations into an 80,000 SF building.
North Cornwall Commons (Lebanon/North Cornwall Township): Another phased project that has been delayed off and on since being proposed in 2004, North Cornwall Commons is finally seeing movement at what would be the largest mixed-use development in Lebanon County history. A retail strip center with at least one confirmed tenant (a local coffee business) is underway at 148-acre site that includes plans for roughly 165 townhomes, office space and a hotel.
The 1500 Condominium (Harrisburg): An example of how you don’t have to have everything in one place, 1500 has 43 units (mostly rentals) that sit over top of two restaurants and is within walking distance to the Broad Street Market and several small-to-medium sized employers.
Wyomissing Square (Reading/Wyomissing Borough): A quintessential brownfield redevelopment, Wyomissing Square now consists of 250 4 Star apartments, a Courtyard by Marriott, small-scale retail, restaurants, and a 60,000 SF medical office building.

Omni: Who is the target demographic for this type of community?

Chris LeBarton: As with anything that deals with where people live, shop/eat or work, I think the answer is “All of the Above.” We hear all too often about Millennials, or Boomers, or Downsizers, or Divorcees. Honestly, the more conversations I have with leasing agents and brokers the more I’m convinced the rule is diversity and the exception is homogeneity. Granted, most of these LWP sites cater to the more upscale or educated among society, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be families with two working blue collar parents who make a decent living and who want to save money on a car/parking and live close to work.

Omni: What advice could help commercial real estate professionals capitalize on the LWP trend?

Chris LeBarton: I don’t give investment advice, but here are a couple thoughts. First, find a way to make it authentic. Be it the retail mix, or a unique concept to the green space, or simply having the “town center” not look boiler plate, be conscientious of that buzz word “place making.” If you’re going to basically spend the majority of your waking life in a small area, it can’t be boring or cookie cutter.

Next, think ahead. What will you need to provide 3-5 years from now? Who would have thought that cities would be crawling with scooters?! Or even just electric vehicles. People looking to walk or be publicly transported or drive as little/cheaply as possible will likely demand options and flexibility. Things to consider are multiple charging stations, bike share platforms, car-share parking lots, etc.

Finally, identify fairly gentrified but not-yet-there locations that are retail/grocery deserts. LWP in the middle of a depressed community won’t work in many places (there are exceptions, of course). But cool/changing areas that are the next ‘it place’ often still need the food and fun to complete the shift.

Omni: Looking to the future, how do you predict LWP communities to evolve in Central PA?

Chris LeBarton: I think you can expect to see more of these types of projects turn up around dying malls or outlet centers that have to repurpose big blocks of space. Another interesting new trend that I could see taking off is the rise of co-living and co-working spaces in the same building.

The LWP trend stands to have a significant impact on Central PA’s commercial real estate market. Because LWP communities rejuvenate the local community, drive business and create employment opportunities, Central PA should be encouraged that so many of these communities are popping up across the region. Additionally this type of real estate appeals to a wide variety of demographics, making it a valuable investment opportunity for commercial real estate professionals. Looking to the future, LWP communities could be among the most powerful tools to breathe new life into struggling areas, and spur a burst of new economic activity that is greatly needed.

What are your thoughts on the growing demand for live-work-place communities in Central Pennsylvania? Is this type of community attractive to you? Why or why not?

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6 Things in 2018 that Should Have Commercial Real Estate Agents Feeling Grateful

Posted on November 13, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

It’s about that time when people start to reflect upon the last year, making note of progress that has been made, and milestones that have been achieved. In light of the Thanksgiving holiday, there are certain things that should have commercial real estate agents, in particular, feeling grateful for what 2018 has brought with it.

Here’s a look at six things that should have CRE professionals giving extra thanks this year – and looking to 2019 with high expectations.

Interest rates are still historically low.

Yes, interest rates are indeed rising and people are panicking over them reaching 6%, but keep in mind that we are still way below the average rate of the last 47 years at 8.35%. Furthermore, recent gauges of U.S. inflation signify little need for the Fed to change its slow-but-steady stance on interest rate hikes at this juncture, so we don’t expect this to jump up several points overnight. Plus, there are a lot of other factors working in the economy’s favor like…

Unemployment hit a 49-year low.

It’s the headline you’re seeing smattered across every major news publication – the U.S. unemployment rate reached 3.7 percent in September — the lowest it has been since December 1969. What’s more, the job market is so tight that the amount of available jobs far exceeds the number of people seeking employment! Employers reported more than 7 million unfilled jobs in August, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000.

Demand for industrial space remains strong.

In Central PA, 2018 brought with it an increasing demand for industrial real estate. The third-quarter saw rent grow hit 6.9%. When compared to the historical average of just 1.9%, it’s easy to see how this boom in demand for industrial space is an exciting new trend for our local economy, particularly because we are poised to welcome more and more warehousing and distribution companies to the area.

Sales of multifamily real estate hits record high.

In the third-quarter, multifamily real estate sales set a new record with the all-time high of $160.6 million. This same sector set another record this year in the second-quarter with an all-time low vacancy rate of 4.3%. With just two numbers, 2018 paints the picture of Central PA’s thriving commercial real estate market, particularly in the multifamily sector.

The Fed raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year.

At its September policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year. While to some a rate increase may not be something that has you feeling grateful, this is yet one more indication of a healthy, growing economy that can sustain such an increase. Furthermore, forecasters contend that unless inflation picks up or the economy starts slowing, the federal funds rate, which is currently between 2 percent and 2.25 percent, should continue to head higher.

New industries are expanding their commercial real estate.

The sixth and final thing that should have commercial real estate agents feeling grateful this year is healthcare mergers. Why? Because this is shaking up the way healthcare systems are approaching real estate. Across the region, the Commonwealth and nationwide we are seeing mergers taking place between healthcare systems small and large. All of this “teaming up” is causing a change in the way these organizations are using commercial real estate. In some instances, such mergers call for consolidating medical office space to reduce redundancy. In other instances, more space is needed to break into new markets or regions. This burst of acquisitions and activity spurs growth and fuels CRE sales.

Gratitude…and Caution

It’s important to note, this is the highlight reel from 2018. The CRE market has certainly experienced both its ups and downs in the various sectors of retail, office and industrial real estate. What’s most important is to take all good news, and bad news, with a grain of salt and know that what goes up, will eventually come down – whether that’s next quarter, next year or next decade.

For now, we can slide into the holiday season feeling grateful for these “gifts” the market has given us this year and enter 2019 cautiously optimistic.

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Central PA Office Submarkets End Quarter with Very Different Outcomes

Posted on November 8, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Lancaster closes Q3 with the strongest market while Harrisburg West shows signs of distress.

The submarkets that make up Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market each have unique advantages and disadvantages that really show through when you examine each individually. With the close of the third-quarter, we took a closer look at how the four main submarkets performed individually and comparatively.

The outcomes should surprise you! You may think you know which of the four submarkets outperformed the others, which one is most likely in distress and the others that are sitting pretty stagnant right now. But you’ll likely be shocked by the large variances in numbers, especially when compared to the historical averages and forecasted averages of what is yet to come.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most interesting trends and numbers reported from CoStar’s Q3 2018 office report for Harrisburg East, Harrisburg West, Lancaster and York.

Harrisburg East

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Harrisburg East submarket is 6.4%. This is notably lower than the historical average of 7.8% and the forecast average shows this dipping lower to 5.7%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q4 2012 when it reached 10.8% and the trough was in Q4 1997 when it plummeted to 3.1%.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 106,000 square-feet. While this is still lower than the historical average of 187,046 square-feet, the forecast average predicts the current net absorption will fall significantly to 61,648 square-feet. Though not by much, net absorption will at least remain in the black for now.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 2.0%. This is higher than the historical average of 1.4%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.7%. For comparison, the peak in Harrisburg East’s rent growth occurred in Q1 2001 when it reached 8.3% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -2.4%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Harrisburg East has a twelve-month delivery of 30,000 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 20,000 square-feet of 4 and 5 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Harrisburg West

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Harrisburg West submarket is 7.3%. This is slightly higher than the historical average of 7.0%; however, CoStar’s forecast average predicts this to dip to 5.6%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q2 2002 when it reached 9.8% and the trough was in Q4 1997 when it plummeted to 2.5%.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is negative 258,000 square-feet. The historical average is 95,454 square-feet and the forecast average predicts the market will again return to positive numbers with 25,193 square-feet. Q3 net absorption is not far from where it was in Q4 2014 when it was negative w 292,042 square-feet. Since then, it peaked in Q3 2016 at 611,057 square-feet before falling substantially to its current negative state.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 1.9%. This is higher than the historical average of 1.4%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.6%. For comparison, the peak in Harrisburg West’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 7.1% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -2.8%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Harrisburg West has a twelve-month delivery of 40,000 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 127,660 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 26,400 square-feet of 3 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Lancaster

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Lancaster submarket is 3.6%. This is notably lower than the historical average of 6.8%; the forecast average predicts this remain fairly stable at 3.7%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q4 2004 when it reached 9.7%. The lowest the vacancy rate has ever been in Lancaster County is actually right now, in Q3 2018.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 324,000 square-feet. The historical average is substantially lower than what it is currently and that is 109,103 square-feet. The forecast average predicts net absorption will decrease to 89,086 square-feet.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 4.9%. This is significantly higher than the historical average of 1.3%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 1.6%. For comparison, the peak in Lancaster’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 6.9% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -5.0%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Lancaster has a twelve-month delivery of 12,000 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 114,237 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 81,840 square-feet of 4 and 5 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

York

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the York submarket is 5.3%. This is lower than the historical average of 6.9%; the forecast average predicts this remain fairly stable at 5.4%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q1 2008 when it reached 10.5%. The lowest the vacancy rate has ever been was 2.2% in Q4 1998.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 29,500 square-feet. The historical average is 72,892 square-feet. The forecast average predicts net absorption will decrease to 8,847 square-feet.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 1.6%. This is fairly close in line with the historical average of 1.1%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.6%. For comparison, the peak in York’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 6.8% and the trough was in Q3 2009 when it plummeted to -4.3%.

12 month deliveries in SF – York has a twelve-month delivery of 0 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 80,056 square-feet. The forecast average predicts that this rise to 13,093 square-feet. Additionally, 22,000 square-feet of office space is under construction, 17,000 square-feet of 4 and 5 star space and 5,000 square-feet of 3 star space, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Key Takeaways

Overall, York County and Harrisburg East have been very stable. Not much is moving the needle. There is not a lot of absorption nor much new construction that could spur activity.

The real positive news from Q3 2018 is Lancaster County. This submarket rose above the rest for several reasons. First is its 324,000 square-feet in net absorption and 4.9% rent growth (highest since Q3 2003). Additionally the vacancy rate decreased 2.3%. Currently there are 81,840 square-feet under construction and 89,166 square-feet of new construction proposed.

In contrast, the Harrisburg West submarket is showing signs of distress. Its negative 282,000 square-feet of net absorption combined with a modest vacancy rate increase of 1.6% does not offer much hope for a major turnaround anytime soon. Additionally, the submarket has 86,400 square-feet of new office space under construction and 225,596 square-feet of proposed new space that the market will struggle to absorb, further driving down the net absorption.

Based on the activity taking place in Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate submarkets, how do you think this will impact business growth and development throughout these counties? How will this have a ripple effect into other areas of our economy?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

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High Rental Rates, Low Vacancy Define Central Pennsylvania Industrial Market

Posted on August 27, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Industrial, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Central PA’s submarket clusters for industrial real estate have some of the lowest vacancy rates and highest rental rates we have seen in recent years.

It’s the news that every commercial real estate developer and investor want to hear – the industrial real estate market in Central Pennsylvania ended Q2 2018 with some of the highest rental rates and lowest vacancy rates the market has experienced since 2014.

Now, it hasn’t been a steady climb over the last four years. Rather there’s been quite a bit of volatility in the market, with numbers bouncing up and down and up and down. However, it does appear that the extreme peaks and valleys have evened out and a more stable, yet steadily growing industrial real market has emerged in Central PA – at least for the present moment.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most interesting trends and numbers reported from CoStar’s Q1 2018 report for Harrisburg/Carlisle, Lancaster and York/Hanover Submarket Clusters.

Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster fell significantly from Q1 2018 where it was previously 9.4% to its now 7.9%. This is the largest drop between a single quarter that the market has seen since prior to Q3 2014. In fact, starting with Q2 2017, the industrial vacancy rate for the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster has been quite volatile, swinging up and down by sometimes more than one percentage point in a quarter.

Absorption – The pattern of volatility in the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster continues with its net absorption. Though the market ended 2017 at a positive 2,692,866 square-feet, in Q1 2018 this dropped to a negative (2,132,086) square-feet, mostly due to a single building of 1,100,000 square-feet that was delivered that same quarter. Now in Q2 2018, net absorption is back in the positive at 1,385,445 square-feet with no new buildings delivered this quarter.

Rental Rates – The average quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space is $4.98. This has been steadily increasing ever since it experienced a drop in Q2 2017 where it dropped from $4.61 to $4.46 in one quarter. Now at almost $5.00 per square foot of space, the Harrisburg/Carlisle Submarket Cluster’s rental rates for industrial space is the highest it has been since prior to Q3 2014.

Inventory – As mentioned above, no new buildings were delivered this quarter, or in all of 2018. Three buildings are currently under construction, totaling 2,951,468 square-feet of new space. It’s estimated that these properties will not be delivered until early 2019.

Lancaster Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for the Lancaster Submarket Cluster in Q2 2018 held steady at 1.9%, the same as it was in Q1 2018. In fact, it has changed minimally from the 2.0% that Q4 2017 ended with. Previous to these last three quarters, there has been a lot more change from quarter to quarter in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster’s vacancy rate. To be this low, and this consistent for three quarters indicates a stable market with supply and demand near evenly matched.

Absorption – As for net absorption, Q2 2018 ended with a positive 2,723 square-feet. This is a drop of 127,888 square feet from Q1’s net absorption of 130,611 square-feet. After experiencing two quarters of negative net absorption in Q2 and Q3 2017, and rebounding to positive 354,056 square-feet in Q4, this is now the third quarter that net absorption has continued to drop, though still a positive number – for now.

Rental Rates – The quoted asking rental rate for available industrial space in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster took a hit this quarter when it dropped from $4.74 to $4.57 per square foot. The trend in rental rates have been up and down and up and down over the course of the last four years. While it peaked at $5.15 per square foot in Q4 2016, it has never been able to return to that high and is now trending downward, inching closer to the numbers we saw in early 2015.

Inventory – One new building was delivered this quarter, adding 35,768 square-feet of new space to the industrial market. There are no other buildings currently under construction in the Lancaster Submarket Cluster.

York/Hanover Submarket Cluster

Vacancy – The industrial vacancy rate for the York/Hanover Submarket Cluster dipped ever so slightly this quarter from 4.4% in Q1 2018 to its current 4.3%. This is the lowest vacancy has been in over a year when it was also 4.3% in Q1 2017. From that point, the vacancy rate was on the rise, peaking at 5.0% in Q4 2017, then dropping 0.6% points to 4.4% in Q1 2018.

Absorption – Q2 2018 ended with a net absorption of 125,766 square-feet. Looking at Q1’s net absorption of 396,112 square-feet, this is a drop of 270,345 square-feet in a single quarter. Between these two quarters only one new building of 30,000 square feet was delivered to the market.

Rental Rates – The Lancaster Submarket Cluster ended Q2 2018 with a quoted asking rental rate of $4.28. This is $0.14 higher than it was in Q1 and $0.22 higher than in Q4 2017. In fact, this is the highest rental rate this submarket cluster has seen since prior to Q3 2014 with it near steadily rising during that entire period.

Inventory – Only one new building was delivered in Q2 2018 and that added 30,000 square-feet of industrial space to the market. There are currently no new buildings under construction at this time.

Key Takeaways

Given all the activity taking place in the various Central PA submarket clusters, there are particular insights that are important to note. First, we can expect vacancies to remain at record lows for the remainder of 2018, despite a further uptick in new construction. Additionally, E-commerce sales grew 15.2% in Q2 2018, compared with the same time last year and now represent 9% of total sales. E-commerce will continue to be a driving force in the foreseeable future.

While indicators point to strong demand, there are headwinds increasing from labor shortages and tariffs. With the economy at or near full employment, site selection decisions and supply chain nodes may be driven out to secondary and tertiary markets. Finally, it is too early to predict the exact impact of tariffs on the industrial market, but we can look for potential declines in import and export levels.

Looking at the comparison of the three Central Pennsylvania submarket clusters, which do you feel has the strongest industrial real estate market right now? What changes do you anticipate taking place throughout the rest of 2018?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

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How Will Trump’s Tariffs on China Impact Commercial Real Estate?

Posted on August 8, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate 2 Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this summer, President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion dollars in Chinese imports. Some fear this is certain to escalate a trade war between the world’s two largest economies. While others argue the short-term setbacks are outweighed by the long-term political and economic benefits. Which side will prove to be right? Only time will tell.

What we can expect, with a great deal of certainty, is that these tariffs will have a ripple effect on the United States’ commercial real estate industry. CRE professionals should be on high alert for several, short-term impacts that stand to reshape the investment decisions we make for the next five to ten years. Keep in mind, the tariffs must still undergo a review process, with hearings this month; however, should they be approved, here are the near-future impacts CRE professionals must be prepared to manage.

Higher Permanent Debt Costs and Construction Costs

CRE professionals should prepare for a 10-Year Treasury of about 3 ½ to 4%. Additionally, it’s reasonable to expect an increase in both permanent debt costs and construction costs. Higher prices for commodities, like steel, will hurt construction and infrastructure projects. The U.S. is already seeing more than 5% materials inflation in construction, and given these recent actions, it’s reasonable to predict this number could rise as high as 10%.

CRE Renovations Over New Construction

If the prices of construction materials increase as expected, this will change the landscape for how CRE professionals are investing in commercial real estate. An increase in raw material prices (aluminum and steel) would accelerate the trend for inflated construction cost that has already been going for years. Foremost, higher construction costs will make buying an enhancing existing commercial real estate the smarter investment over new construction.

Temporary Decrease in GDP

Even though the third quarter is normally the strongest quarter of the year, the addition of these tariffs could cause the GDP to fall below 3% this fall. However, this decrease in GDP will only be temporary if Trump prevails. It will take a patient economy to “ride the wave” until 2019 when it’s expected that GDP will reach 4% with exports rising.

Increased Inflation

In the short-term, these tariffs and counter-tariffs are predicted to add to the currently elevated 2.8% annual inflation. Let’s not forget that this inflation has already caused the Fed to raise rates in June and provides guidance for two more hikes in the second half of 2018.

What This Boils Down to for Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate (as well as residential real estate), is intricately linked to virtually every aspect of our nation’s economy; we often look to our construction and housing markets as a barometer to gauge current economic temperature, endurance, and vulnerability. The recent tariffs not only increase the costs of materials, but they may also ignite a global trade war, both of which can have a significant, negative impact on both local and national commercial real estate.

However there is one positive angle to consider. While much of the industry may feel the squeeze of elevated costs, the recent aluminum and steel tariffs don’t mean doom and gloom for the entire commercial real estate vertical. There is one sector that actually stands to benefit from the recent market flux: current property owners. Landlords of existing buildings won’t have to worry about increasing rents to cover new and unforeseen materials costs. These building owners can offer extremely competitive rent prices to potential tenants, ultimately undercutting the competition and stealing market share.

What other impacts do you anticipate Trump’s trade tariffs to have on the United States’ economy, within CRE or beyond? Do you feel short-term impacts outweigh long-term benefits or not?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below!

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Central PA Retailer Shares Challenges and Strategies for Competing with Online Retailers

Posted on July 27, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

In June, the Supreme Court ruled that states can begin to collect sales tax on web purchases. Previously, online sellers who did not have a physical presence (or “nexus”) in a given state had a perceived advantage over sellers that did. This is because these online retailers did not have to collect and remit sales tax back to the state in which the buyer lived. Rather, it was the buyer who was supposed to, at the end of the year, take all the purchases he or she made online that were not collected, calculate the sales tax, tally up the total and remit it to the state at tax time.

If we’re all being honest with ourselves, we know that it’s no stretch to say that this method for collecting sales tax for online purchases was costing states up to $33.9 billion annually in payments that were simply never made. Now that states have been given control to collect sales tax on web purchases, how will this impact our retailers? Moreover, how will this impact the use of and need for commercial retail space?

For insights we went straight to the source. Omni Realty Group interviewed Central PA retailer and owner of World Cup Ski & Cycle in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, Lee Gonder. Lee is a wealth of knowledge when it comes to running a successful a local retail store and competing against online retailers. Through the questions and answers below, you will gain a better understanding of challenges brick-and-mortar retailers are up against and how the smart ones are developing strategies to provide unique benefits to customers that online retailers simply cannot replicate.

Omni Realty: As a local, brick-and-mortar retailer, how have you been impacted by online retailers?

Lee Gonder: It’s difficult to quantify the impact of online retailers in dollars, but it’s easy to see their effects in day to day business. With online retailing, the consumer no longer has to compromise on their purchase; they will go find exactly what they want. As a small, local retailer it’s impossible to stock, service or even know about every conceivable product within your industry.

In the past, you could explain the choices you made in your inventory and why they were best suited for the local consumer. Most of those educational opportunities are gone with the internet. All research is done online and the retailer is no longer the expert. With the availability of virtually any product online, not only can the consumer research their purchase, but more than likely have a direct link to be able to make the purchase. We’ve been affected on both big ticket items like bikes and skis, but we also take an incremental hit on everything from ski wax to bike chains and other accessories.

Omni: If you had to pick one thing, what would you say is your biggest competition right now?

Lee: Online retailing would have to be our biggest competition right now. In the ski industry, there are a number of domestic companies that do a good job of providing consumers with numerous options for purchase. The ski industry does a reasonable job of requiring its dealers to maintain minimum advertised pricing (MAP). With the current MAP policies it allows my business to compete on price, just bringing inventory choice in as the major obstacle to making a sale.

However, in the bike industry it is quite different. There are numerous international companies that really make competing for the consumer very difficult. The international companies are not governed by the MAP policies that we U.S. retailers are asked to abide by. Therefore, not only can we not compete in the inventory game, but quite often they have pricing that is equal to or sometimes less than my wholesale. Add in two-day free shipping, and there go a lot of my incremental parts and accessory sales.

Omni: Given the recent supreme court ruling to allow states to tax online purchases, do you think this will drive more business back to local brick-and-mortar retailers?

Lee: Simply put, no. Many of the larger online retail services, like Amazon, already have nexus in the state of PA. They already had to collect and remit sales tax. It may help curb the purchasing of some bigger ticket items, but I think the effect will be minimal.

Speaking as a retailer, it will make me rethink how I handle my webpage, which is ecommerce enabled. Now I will have to collect and remit tax to other states if I sell something on my site to an out-of-state consumer. That becomes another hurdle for a small business, to track and remit sales tax to out of state government agencies. I think for a small, local business it may indeed just make things a bit more difficult. The larger companies that have the infrastructure to handle these changes will be able to continue with their online retailing with a few internal adjustments.

Omni: How have you had to adjust your business strategy to compete with online shopping?

Lee: Our focus over the past several years has been to invest in technology or services that can’t be bought on the internet. Precision ski tuning equipment, bike fitting equipment and ski boot fitting equipment and knowledge. Some services can’t be easily addressed online, so we’ve made investments in those areas. We’ve trained the staff to sell that service, use the equipment and that is what sets us apart from the online retailer.

Conclusion

Competing against online retailers is no easy task for our local, brick-and-mortar stores. Though the Supreme Court ruling to allow states to collect sales tax on web purchases was intended to level the playing field for retailers, it’s not exactly an immediate windfall for local retailers.

However, commercial real estate professionals could see a boost in demand for commercial retail space as both conventional and online retailers may put more stock in brick-and-mortar locations since there is no longer an advantage to not having a physical location in each state. In fact, being closer and more accessible to customers will become an even greater advantage for retailers.

For this reason, commercial real estate remains a critical aspect of any retailer’s business strategy. Location, visibility and flow of space has a profound impact on how customers find you and their customer service experience. Retailers who wish to remain competitive against online retailers, or even other brick-and-mortar retailers, should closely consider whether their commercial space is meeting the needs of the business and their customer base.

Through the insights shared in this article, it’s obvious that local retail businesses will continue to face some unique challenges, even after the Supreme Court ruling on online sales tax. Being strategic with the location and type of commercial retail space a business invests in can help deliver exceptional customer service, and in turn earn more business!

Do you agree or disagree that something more should be done to level the playing field between online retailers and local retailers? Share your ideas or ask a question by leaving a comment below!

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Does Your Commercial Real Estate Property Qualify for Section 110 Construction Allowances?

Posted on June 11, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Section 110 of the current Internal Revenue Code (IRC) provides an interesting opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords alike. Essentially Section 110, in certain instances, allows commercial tenants to make improvements to their leased workspace with the benefit of not having to recognize income for any cash payments or rent reductions that are expressly identified in the lease as qualified Section 110 allowances. Additionally, under a qualified Section 110 provision, the landlord will be treated as the owner of the constructed improvements and entitled to depreciation deductions as nonresidential real estate.

The purpose of this tax provision is to provide a set of rules for certain construction allowances, in which the tax reporting and treatment will be consistent between the lessor and lessee. It’s important to understand the nuances of Section 110 that determine whether such improvements qualify. Qualified property is nonresidential real estate which is part of, or present at, “retail space,” which property reverts to the lessor at the termination of the lease. The term of the lease must be 15 years or less, applying certain rules.

For most commercial landlords and their tenants, it can be overwhelming to understand how and when it’s appropriate to take advantage of Section 110. If you find that you’re uncertain as to whether your situation qualifies, don’t let this be the reason you forfeit this potential tax break altogether. When used properly, Section 110 can offer a huge benefit to both parties, allowing tenants to enjoy an upgraded, functional workspace, and allowing landlords the ability to improve their commercial property.

Take a moment to answer these questions to determine if your property might qualify under Section 110. To help us answer, we’ve enlisted the expertise of Jim Holland, Certified Public Accountant (CPA) to offer insight into qualifying for this tax deduction. *It’s important to keep in mind that these are simplified questions and answers. More details may be necessary to fully assess your situation.

Is my space considered “retail?”

If you leased, occupied or use space in your trade of selling tangible personal property (i.e. products or goods) or services to the general public, this is considered retail space. You qualify!

Am I in a short-term lease?

If your lease, with extensions, is not greater than 15 years in length this is considered a short-term lease. You qualify!

Am I constructing qualified long-term real property for use in my trade or business?

If you construct nonresidential improvements (sec 1250 property vs. sec 1245 property) which revert to the lessor (i.e. landlord or person leasing you the space) at termination of the lease, the answer to this question is yes. You qualify! A note of caution: if the lessor chooses to use a cost-segregation study to reallocate the costs, a different language must be used in the lease agreement.

Who will ultimately own the improvements to the property?

To adhere to the requirements under Section 110, your lease must specifically indicate that the lessor retains ownership of all improvements to the property. In this case…you qualify!

Do I have an official agreement between the tenant and landlord?

If you have obtained a signed agreement, before payment or before the reduction in rent begins, from the lessor to lessee…you qualify!

Will the allowance be expended in the tax year it is received?

If the full amount of your construction allowance is expended within 8 and 1/2 months after the close of the tax year…you qualify!

Will both the landlord and the tenant disclose this information with their tax returns?

In order to fulfill this requirement, you must disclose both the landlord and tenants names, addresses, employer IDs, location, and amount reported on both lessee and lessor tax returns. In doing so…you qualify!

Does the Safe-Harbor Exclusion apply?

If you have met all of the above requirements, the safe-harbor exclusion applies to your situation. You qualify!

As you can see, Section 110 provides a valuable opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords to improve their spaces while each receiving a benefit for doing so. If you meet the requirements, and it makes sense for your situation, taking advantage of the Section 110 tax breaks could open up new possibilities to create the commercial space you’ve dream about having! The most important thing to keep in mind is that you must be aware of the requirements to qualify under Section 110 in order to receive the maximum benefit. Speak to a professional advisor before entering any contract or commitment.

*General Disclaimer: These are simplified answers and your situation may be more complicated. This document is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.

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How Omni Realty Uses Research, Skill and Experience to Benefit Our Commercial Real Estate Clients

Posted on June 4, 2018 by Mike Kushner in About Us, Blog, CCIM No Comments

When in search of a service or product, you’re likely to start with a Google search. These results will lead you to visiting some potential businesses’ websites and possibly their social media pages. You may feel like you’ve gathered enough information based on the quality of their online presence, reviews and word of mouth recommendations to choose the right business to fit your needs.

But how often do you consider a business’s mission statement in this decision making process? If you don’t, you should!

A business’s mission statement (or lack thereof) will tell you a lot about their focus, approach and how they treat their customers. A nice website, active social media and high ranking reviews only paint part of the picture of the quality of the company – and what they stand for.

For the benefit of our clients, whether they be past, present or future, we hope to give you deeper insight into our own mission so you can understand what we value and our commitment to serving you!

At Omni Realty, our mission is to secure the most effective space at the most favorable terms for our clients. We use research, skill and experience to offer unmatched, highly personalized service while carefully determining our clients’ needs and analyzing all possible solutions.

But our mission statement is more than just words on paper. The values it represents are closely woven into our daily client interactions as well as our long-term visioning. Here is how Omni Realty strives to live out our mission with everything we do.

Current and Consistent Research

We are strategic about maintaining access to the industry’s most comprehensive database of commercial real estate through our partnership with CoStar. Even though we specifically serve the Central Pennsylvania market, we have access to a combination of reliable tools, resources, and expert analysis on over 5 million commercial real estate properties in today’s market. This allows us to pull and compare market reports, keep a pulse on emerging trends and give our clients valuable advice even if it’s outside of our market.

Additionally, we have access to the most technologically advanced industry tools including:

Esri ArcGIS and Business Analyst – demographics and mapping
DataVu – business list data
Riskmeter Flood Maps – assess flood hazards and generate reports
RealNex MarketEdge – financial analysis

High-Level Skill

Mike Kushner is a graduate of University of Pennsylvania (Penn) with his degree in economics. This education is combined with Mike’s CCIM Designation, making him a uniquely qualified commercial real estate broker, developer and investor. CCIM stands for Certified Commercial Investment Member and requires advanced coursework in financial and market analysis. The CCIM designation demonstrates extensive experience in the commercial real estate industry. Furthermore, CCIM designees are recognized as leading experts in commercial investment real estate.

As part of Omni Realty’s mission, developing this high-level of skill is essential to offering our clients unmatched expertise backed by confidence. Just a few of our uncommon, but highly valuable skill areas include:

Property Management
Raw Land Development
Historic Rehab Property Development
Chairman of Local Zoning Hearing Board
Expert Witness Testimony

Diverse Experience

Skill can only be grown when it is applied. Over the last 25 years of being a licensed real estate broker, Omni Realty has grown a diverse portfolio of experience. We have served over 500 clients, brokered 1,250 commercial real estate deals and have helped businesses of all sizes and industries find the most effective space at the most favorable terms. Our diverse experience also includes extensive property management, both residential and commercial.

We love sharing our experience and applying it toward delivering favorable outcomes for our clients. Experience gives us negotiation power on behalf of our clients, a leg-up on emerging market trends and a vast network of contacts that we call upon to help our clients overcome any number of challenges, both inside and outside the scope of commercial real estate.

Unique Value Proposition

We understand that other businesses may tout that they are “different” and it can be confusing to cut through the clutter and determine which commercial real estate business truly offers a unique model. First, when we say we work with businesses of all sizes, we truly mean it. From a one-person startup looking for co-working space, to a Fortune 1,000 organization looking to develop a growing campus, we are excited to work at both ends of the spectrum because we are excited to see our locally-based businesses thrive.

Second, our skill and expertise comes at no cost to our clients. As an exclusive tenant representative/buyers agent, Omni Realty is compensated by the landlord or seller, not by our client. This also means we come to the table to represent only you and your interests. There is no conflict of interest like there might be if a single agent represented both the tenant and landlord in a commercial real estate transaction. Finally, our service is highly personalized and highly hands-on. You work with only the principals in our firm; and we are responsive and proactive in our communications.

With a better understanding of our mission, and the various pieces involved in bringing our mission to life, we hope you can see why Omni Realty is in a unique position to serve our commercial real estate tenants and buyers. And remember, a business’s mission should not be taken lightly. When looking to work with a commercial real estate broker in Central Pennsylvania, be sure to assess their mission and compare it to your own. The most successful partnerships come from businesses and clients who work together over a shared mission!

Have a comment or question? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Major Trends Impacting Central PA’s Retail Real Estate Market in 2018

Posted on May 24, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

For Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market, things are off to a, well, interesting start. The market has seen its fair share of ups and downs in recent quarters, and 2018 is no exception. On one hand, major retailers continue to shutter brick and mortar locations across the Susquehanna Valley. At the same time, other retailers are making the move into new locations. It can be hard to grasp what’s really going on in the market. Does the good outweigh the bad? What will the next quarter bring? The next year? For the answers, we turn to an expert.

Senior Market Analyst with CoStar Group, Chris LeBarton covers commercial real estate data in markets stretching from Western Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area, up through Central Pennsylvania for CoStar’s Market Analytics platform. His insight and expertise are helpful for understanding not only where the market currently stands, but how it’s likely to move in the future.

Chris joins Mike Kushner of Omni Realty Group for a Q&A series where we specifically look at the current state of Central Pennsylvania’s retail real estate market – as well as trends and challenges that stand to reshape things in 2018 and beyond. Here’s how Chris answers our most pressing questions.

Omni: With a net absorption of almost 95,000 SF, the Harrisburg East Retail submarket had a great bounce back quarter in Q1 2018 after four consecutive featuring net move outs. Can you elaborate on the various factors contributing to this?

Chris LeBarton: Retail leasing on the east side of Harrisburg has been fairly whippy this cycle, and certainly since 2015. So, putting too much stock into it is unwise. Minus Hobby Lobby’s move into almost 70,000 SF at Colonial Commons, this looks like less of a win. With that said, there are some strong pockets of buying power (median household income x households) in this submarket, including parts surrounding Colonial Park. In fact, Dauphin County has been one of the faster-growing counties in Pennsylvania since 2010.

Omni: What were the largest lease deals that took place in Central PA’s (Harrisburg East and Harrisburg West) retail real estate market in Q1 2018?

Chris LeBarton: Hobby Lobby’s move-in was the standout for sure, but there were a couple other sizable deals in the region. There was 15,000 SF leased in Carlisle on Newville Road and Ideal Auto Body absorbed 11,000 SF in Hanover. Also, Generations of Furniture signed a three-year deal on roughly 8,100 SF in Lancaster.

Omni: Amidst recent, massive retail closings, how would you say Central PA has responded/rebounded? What factors contribute to your assessment?

Chris LeBarton: Few areas are immune to the wave of big-box retail closings; stores like Kmart, Sears, Boscov’s, Macy’s and Toys R Us were once ubiquitous across the country. But a review of the biggest names shows fairly limited exposure in Central PA. Simply based on population density, natural tourism corridors, and buying power, this region isn’t swimming in malls and power centers. A review of a dozen or so metro areas inside Central Pennsylvania shows that, overall, vacancies are largely where they were coming out of the crash and in some cases improved.

In addition, several retailers that did not have a presence in Central Pennsylvania have absorbed space vacated by some of the big box closings. Stein Mart, Home Goods, and Hobby Lobby moved into the former Kmart on the Carlisle Pike. In Lower Paxton Township, Hobby Lobby opened in the former Giant Foods location and Giant moved across the road to the space vacated by Gander Mountain. At the Capital City Mall, Field and Stream moved into the former Toys R Us location. Overall, Central PA should feel encouraged that the region was no by means hit the hardest, compared to others. In fact, some significant regrowth has occurred as a result of many of these retail closings.

Omni: In your opinion, what are some of the future trends you expect to see in the Central PA retail real estate market?

Chris LeBarton: Mixed-use projects offering at least live-play (work there, or nearby, is an added bonus) with smart ground floor retail are all the rage. If areas outside of the major urban centers want to grow their population, they need to think about approving these types of projects. Naturally occurring affordable housing is becoming a big draw for those who want a nice place to live, but don’t want the high price tag. Developers who are trying to overcome the challenges of rising land and labor costs are looking more and more at secondary and tertiary markets, and there’s no reason Harrisburg can’t accommodate small-to-midsized projects with local/authentic retailers.

Another trend on the rise is related to the last piece of the “last mile” industrial craze and e-commerce. Central Pennsylvania is booming with warehouse and distribution construction; as a result, the biggest population centers in the region may see retailers testing new concepts here. Amazon Key, a home delivery service, opened in close to 40 cities last fall, and Walmart is doing all it can to keep up with the biggest player in the space. It would be reasonable to think that such trends could make their way to the Central PA retail real estate market as well.

While technology and the shift in the way consumers prefer to shop and purchase goods has had a significant impact retail real estate, we can expect the market to react and adapt – just like any industry must to stay afloat. The key to survival is for retailers to stay in front of emerging trends, keep an eye on competitors, and be willing to evolve.

How do you feel Central PA is responding to the changes and challenges taking place in the local retail real estate market? Are you more hopeful or more concerned? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

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How Commercial Real Estate Owners and Investors Can Capitalize on the Co-Working Movement

Posted on May 9, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Office Leasing, Trends No Comments

To younger generations who are making up more and more of our work force every day, work is no longer a physical space, but rather an activity that, for better or worse, can be taken nearly everywhere we go. For this reason, the movement toward co-working spaces has emerged in virtually every city that has a business industry. Co-working is present here in Central Pennsylvania with spaces like the Park and St@rtUp in Harrisburg, the Candy Factory in Lancaster and the Techcelerator in Carlisle, to name just a few.

Even though co-working spaces are present in Central Pennsylvania, the majority of our workplaces are still modeled after the “old” economy assembly line, where workflow was linear and corporate structures were hierarchical. For commercial real estate owners and investors who want to capitalize on the growing demand for co-working spaces, here’s what you need to know.

Understand how the modern day “office” has changed

Foremost, we must take a step back to understand how the modern day “office” has vastly changed from what was desired decades ago. Simply put, stop thinking like a baby boomer! Nearly 10,000 baby boomers retire every year. It’s estimated that millennials will comprise the largest segment of our work force (75 percent to be precise) within the next decade.

If you’re a commercial real estate landlord or investor, you know the importance of understanding your clients’ wants and needs. So let’s examine what millennials want out of an office. First, the word “office” isn’t really appropriate anymore. What’s desired is a workspace that in one instance can provide quiet and solitude for “head-down” work, and the very next moment, provide an energizing and collaborative group work environment. Should it come as a surprise that millennials want it all without having to commit to one style of space? This brings us to the next important point, which is design.

Design spaces that quickly adapt to changing needs

Co-working spaces are high on function and that means being able to quickly adapt to a variety of work situations. In a single day, a business and its employees may need quiet, private work stations where people can work independently; open, collaborative space where people can work in groups; and traditional meeting space where people can meet with clients. Over time, growing businesses also desire the ability to easily accommodate more employees without having to uproot and find a bigger office every few months.

With traditional office space, businesses usually have to settle for dysfunctional work spaces that don’t quite fit the number of employees or their work styles. As a result, employees are less efficient, communication is disjointed and company culture suffers. For those who own or invest in commercial real estate, the focus needs to be on redesigning traditional office space to function more like a co-working space. This means large, open work areas where employees can interact and collaborate. Also, look for furniture that can be easily reconfigured as often as needed to provide more work spaces and private offices for independent work and meetings. These features will be huge selling points for businesses who want an office that will meet their immediate needs as well as grow with them.

Offer shared amenities to attract and retain tenants

The good news about co-working spaces is that people get used to sharing amenities. Multiple businesses working in the same building could all benefit from a shared conference room, snack bar, lounge or gym. While this would be far too much for any one of these businesses to individually afford in their own office, a building that provides all tenants with access to such amenities has quite a leg up over the competition.

Look at how Google and Apple have designed “campuses” for their employees. You can create the same effect out of your office building. Give businesses a place to interact with other businesses. Now you not only offer work space, you offer networking and business development opportunities for all!

Deliver a seamless experience – even if it comes at a premium

By adding luxury amenities to your office building, like mentioned above, you give businesses a seamless experience. Their employees will have incentive to do more at the office, even if that is relaxing, eating or exercising. Best of all, this higher level of employee engagement comes at a premium. Businesses will pay more for office spaces that keep employees happy, healthy and invested in their jobs. When you invest in adding luxury amenities to you work spaces, you will stand out among the competition and be able to charge more for your space.

Focus on building your own brand!

If you want to engage the growing millennial workforce, you need to pay attention to your brand. This demographic is used to polished and prominent branding. If you want to attract them to your office space, you need to present them with a brand worth buying into. Many co-working spaces brand themselves with a trendy name and logo. They have professional websites and a strong social media presence. How does your “brand” compare? Any effort put into properly branding your properties will bring exponential benefits as time goes on.

Which of these tips do you believe is most valuable to commercial real estate owners and investors capitalizing on the growing trend of co-working spaces?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below!

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