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Posts tagged "property"

Home» Posts tagged "property"

Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate – Part II

Posted on September 6, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

In Part I of the “Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate” we covered topics 1-5 of the top issues we expect to have a lasting and immediate impact on real estate here in Central Pennsylvania and across the United States. If you missed it, start here!

Keep reading if you’re ready to dive deeper into issues #6-10 as we continue down the list of the most pertinent topics to real estate as they apply to various sectors.

#6 Housing Supply and Affordability

Decades of underinvestment and underbuilding have created a shortage of housing in America that is more dire than previously expected and will require a concerted, long-term nationwide commitment to overcome. As it stands, there are three things that most can agree on in the current housing market: 1) there is a tremendous need for affordable housing; 2) there continues to be a sentiment of a “Not in My Back Yard” mentality; and 3) there’s an ongoing supply deficit of market-rate housing.

A severe lack of new construction and prolonged underinvestment has led to an acute shortage of available housing to the detriment of the economy and certain segments of the public. This trend affects every region of the country, creating an “underbuilding gap” of 5.5 to 6.8 million housing units since 2001.

#7 Political Polarization

Simply put, we are squandering resources as we try to address problems that arise from the partisan divide, rather than problems confronting us as common issues. This hinders our productivity and therefore the nation’s economic strength. And the real estate industry’s well-being is a function of our economic growth. The economy and the real estate industry would be far healthier, as would American society, if the pattern of party-line voting in the halls of Congress could be transcended in favor of something very traditional: the defining of politics as the art of compromise.

#8 Economic Structural Change

What we’re seeing is many investors increasing their focus on property management aimed at retaining tenants and defending cash flow, while selectively seeking ‘value-add’ properties amenable to active asset management. The thinking is “focus on what you can control” during this period where macro-level uncertainty is the governing headwind at the policy level in terms of the structural problems in this economy. This is a significant economic structural change. Additionally, Cap rates ranging, on average, from 5% for apartments to 6.6% for offices are keeping pricing rich compared with the risk inherent in that underwriting uncertainty.

#9 Adaptive Reuse Reinvented

Adaptive reuse is not a new terminology but since COVID-19 it’s evolved into a re-examination of our suburban communities to reposition them for transformation before the opportunity for change passes them over. The trend we see now, and one that stands to have a large impact on commercial real estate is addressing the challenge of what to do with hundreds of defunct suburban malls and thousands of empty Big-Box retail stores that are surrounded by desirable and affordable neighborhoods. This makes it to the Top #10 list for four main reasons:

  1. Reconnecting our communities from what the Interstate Highway system divided from the 1950s to the 1980s
  2. Preventing blight that developed in our dense urban cities from flowing to the suburbs and secondary MSAs
  3. Restoring much-needed greenspace to our neighborhoods and cities that can germinate interaction of diverse demographic groups
  4. Promoting good ESG and diversity, equity, and inclusion policies

#10 Bifurcation of Capital Markets

Looking back over the last year and a half, what becomes clear is how different the market-changing event of COVID-19 was compared to prior market corrections. While transaction volume is slowly recovering, it’s still well below pre-COVID levels. Furthermore, the market has not seen the volume of expected distress sales, but there is plenty of capital ready to deploy! As we look to the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, performance will dictate the amount of distress and losses, and risk management should dictate markets, property types, leverage, loan structure, and pricing for mortgage debt.  The next year should also tell us if commercial real estate debt was too rich and whether perceived risk underestimated where pricing should have been.

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Among issues 6-10, which one do you believe will last the longest or have the greatest impact? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

And be sure to visit Part I to learn about issues #1-#5!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, advice, agent, blog, broker, businesses, buy, central pa, Commercial Real Estate, CRE, employees, expert, factors, funding, government, harrisburg, home office, industrial, infrastructure, insight, issues, landlord, laws, lease, logistics, Mike Kushner, office, office environment, Omni Realty Group, pa, pennsylvania, professional, property, remote working, retail, sell, taxes, top 10, trends, virtual office

Is a new kind of “crash” on the horizon for real estate?

Posted on August 30, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

It doesn’t take more than a quick glance through the news to read something about the fast and wild real estate market that has risen from the chaos of a global pandemic. Listings are selling within days of hitting the market, well above asking price, and construction can hardly keep up with the demand for new residential and commercial properties. There are many factors impacting the temperature of the market which make it quite different than the real estate “boom” we know all too well from 2008 – as well as the crash that followed.

Should real estate professionals as well as buyers, sellers, and builders be wary of a similar crash on the horizon? Without a doubt, the market cannot sustain this pace indefinitely, but it also doesn’t mean it will end in a crash-and-burn (or rather explosive) style that it did in 2008. Keep reading for a high-level overview of why the 2021 real estate boom is unique, and what we can expect as the tides inevitably turn.

Noteworthy Differences Between 2021 and 2008

Lower leverage and higher down payments – When the market corrected itself in 2008, overleveraged home buyers brought down the housing market, and some of that contagion spread throughout the rest of the property markets quickly causing a “wildfire” of sorts. As we now approach Q4 of 2021, the housing market is robust with buyers coming in with lower leverage than ever. Despite record-high housing prices, we’re also seeing a record-high percentage of house buyers bringing in 20% down payment or better. Meanwhile, 26% of all houses are sold to cash buyers. With so much money being printed by the Federal Reserve and still tight underwriting standards, only the most well-qualified house buyers are getting a chance to buy and even they are swamping the available inventory.

Slow and low construction – Housing construction levels remain well below that of the 2005–2007 period, which preceded the 2008–2010 correction. Part of that is due to wary housing builders who lived through the chaos of 2008. Another consideration is the disrupted supply chains due to COVID-19 deaths, illnesses, and lockdowns. Until we can fully resolve the prolonged impact of COVID-19 on a global basis, we can expect to deal with supply chain issues and higher prices from inadequate supply. And unfortunately, with the way that variants are arising from all the global hot spots, combined with anti-vaxxers, it’s going to be a long haul out of this storm.

Falling interest rates – Right now interest rates remain at record lows and falling. Interest rates will continue to fall during the current inflation spike and after; that’s how the mechanism of Federal Reserve money printing works. But it’s not advised to expect interest rates to climb just because rates are low today. Until the Federal Reserve changes its policy direction, there is no catalyst for higher interest rates, at least not yet.

Preparing for Impact: What kind of crash to expect?

Collectively, real estate professionals agree that a crash is on the horizon for office and retail real estate. Although “crash” may be too strong of a word – rather we should view it as a natural flow to the ebb we’ve experienced, and a course correction like what must occur after any major market shift.

Here are some important things that are boiling under the surface that will have an impact on the market sooner than later. Even with the general reopening of the U.S. economy, nationally office space demand is nowhere near what the still high asking prices for office buildings would imply. Furthermore, retail is getting crushed by online shopping, which reached escape velocity during the COVID-19 lockdowns. So, those two property segments have a lot of room to fall until property owners figure out how to adapt. The hard reality is that many commercial property owners may simply run out of cash before they can adapt and some of that price drop may spread to neighboring housing in 2022–2023.

Our current market is driven by supply and demand.  While no one can predict the future with 100% accuracy, I don’t think we are heading for a catastrophic “crash” per se. Rather, I see the housing market continuing strong for at least eight to ten months before we see a significant slowdown and evening out.

Key Takeaways

The bottom line is that there is a property market readjustment coming, but it’ll be quite different from what the United States experienced in 2008. Those circumstances were uniquely reckless and volatile. Though real estate will always be (not crazy about this wording), often at a rapid pace, the market right now is not a castle built on quicksand as it was 13 years ago. As a whole, the nation has learned from these mistakes and is not endorsing overleveraging of buyers. Additionally, construction has slowed for various reasons, most beyond our control, which has naturally put some “brakes” on the market.

The most important takeaway is for potential real estate buyers. As it stands, there is no general advantage to wait. As interest rates fall, housing becomes more affordable at ever-higher prices. If you are in the market for property right now, then buy right now. Simply put, the market will continue to shift and where some pros lessen, others will emerge in your favor. The best move is to hunt for opportunities overlooked by others, so you don’t end up in an impossible bidding war or jump into a property that really isn’t the right fit for you. Don’t get caught up in the manufactured chaos but remain steady in your thinking and purchasing. Most importantly, link arms with a trusted real estate professional who can help you navigate the choppy waters of the market – now and into the future.

What is your take on the current real estate market and the potential for a crash in the future? Do you agree with this prediction or have one of your own to share? Join the conversation by leaving a comment!

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Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate – Part I

Posted on August 23, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

We live in a rapidly changing world, and such changes impact every person, place, and industry either directly or indirectly. First, this was due to rapidly changing technology, which still has a profound impact on our daily lives. We live in a time where technology is changing more in a few months than it previously would in years or decades. This has led to great advancements, life-saving solutions, and modern conveniences, unlike anything the generations before us could imagine.

But in the shadows of the sudden onset of a global pandemic, some changes that have taken place recently were not so helpful or welcoming. Every business has felt the blow of COVID-19, and some did not survive the punch. For those who were able to adapt and survive, changes had to take place. Looking at commercial real estate, the most significant changes can be grouped into 10 core issues. Let’s take a look at the first five issues that have already and will continue to affect the real estate market for years to come.

#1 Remote and Flexible Work Environments

Over the summer, businesses began to return to in-person work environments, some partially and others fully. As of mid-June, it was estimated that 32% of United States businesses had reopened their physical office locations and employees were returning to (somewhat) normal work schedules. Nevertheless, commercial properties need to be prepared for lasting changes as the result, not only of this global pandemic but other factors that had been on the rise for quite some time.

Remote working, the acceleration of internet retail, and the demand for larger and more natural spaces and other pandemic-era behaviors have created the “perfect storm” to drive significant change in remote work and mobility in commercial real estate. One of the greatest lessons learned during COVID is the escalating demand for more flexible, easily adaptable, and sharable spaces and CRE professionals need to be prepared to make their spaces more conducive in order to meet these demands and remain competitive.

#2 Technology Acceleration and Innovation

Technology continues to hold its place high on this top 10 list, but this year for a slightly different reason. In the wake of COVID-19, more people than ever before had to rapidly adapt and accept technology (particularly those who allowed for remote interactions with the world) as a way of life. The question before us now is what new habits have formed as such, and how many people will revert to “old tech” ways of doing things. Our prediction is that a lot of the new technology people had been trained to use over the last 18 months will “stick” and as a result, there is a higher comfort level – especially among older generations – with using remote technologies to live, work, and entertain.

For commercial real estate, the biggest impact can be seen in cybersecurity, supply chain logistics, and price instability. None of these are new concepts, but in a span of months if not weeks in some cases, the world saw high profile hacks, shortages of resources like microchips, lumber and labor, and rising prices across the board. The accelerated upgrade of connectivity, security, and hosted processes mean utilization is being maximized and any place is now a potential workplace. This creates new pools of vacancy and pools of availability enabled by technology.

#3 Environmental, Social, and Governance Initiatives

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) programs in real estate continue to be one of the best ways to reduce carbon emissions, accrete value, and demonstrate reputational value in the market. This was greatly accelerated during the onset of COVID-19. At the same time, workforce development, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives, and recognition of the importance of health and wellness in commercial real estate are setting new expectations for building operations and how to engage stakeholders and the communities in which real estate owners and users invest.

The expertise, creativity, and innovation that the real estate (and finance) industry is well known for are highly valuable for assessing and mitigating risk and creating value for investors, occupants, and the capital markets that serve them. The biggest shift to note for this trend is an increased value that real estate professionals can bring to other markets that are creating and implementing ESG programs in an effort to be socially responsible and attract top talent.

#4 Logistics

Simply put, logistics is what makes our economy “work.” It’s at the epicenter of every product-based service and that has never felt more evident than during COVID-19 when so many goods were delayed across the globe, and even domestically. The supply-chain funnel is still recovering as we continue to experience shortages and delays. Logistics post-COVID-19 will disrupt commercial real estate models for years to come. We can expect disruption in commercial real estate capital allocation, with more funding to industrial property and less to retail. There will also be less dependency on physical stores and more on modern eCommerce warehouses that will be increasingly automated with less reliance on labor. The biggest takeaway for commercial real estate professionals is to keep a keen eye on the changing logistical strategies and solutions of the economy. As these cause shifts in the market, the demand for CRE will also shift. Where one sector will turn down, another will rise. We can expect the waves of change to continue to roll in, impacting real estate for years to come in big and permanent ways.

#5 Infrastructure: New Imperatives Emerge

Similar to issue #4, it takes infrastructure to support logistics. The government has turned a keen eye to allocating funding and initiatives to support improved roads, bridges, airports, ports, mass transit, and other traditional infrastructure needs. With billions of dollars in proposed funding, many new imperatives to improve our nation’s infrastructure have emerged. This includes the expansion of broadband, last-mile deliveries to homes and businesses, automation and optimization of systems, and an increased focus on renewables. This is a huge issue to tackle and it seems we’re falling behind the clock with every passing second.

To put this issue into perspective, the American Society of Civil Engineers gives U.S. infrastructure a score of C-, classifying it as “poor” and “at risk,” while the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report ranks the U.S. 13th in the world. If the American economy is to remain top tier, we need to invest aggressively and strategically in the future of our infrastructure to keep up with the competition and demand. The funding coming in from Capitol Hill attempts to do this, but the question remains whether it will come quickly enough. Change and improvements take time, even more so when we’re talking about major infrastructure improvements. The United States is racing the rapid advancements of technology and the mindset of an “I want it now” world.

*****

Among these top 5 issues, which one do you believe will last the longest or have the greatest impact? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

And stay tuned for Part II of this topic where we dive deeper into issues #6-10!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, advice, agent, blog, broker, businesses, buy, central pa, Commercial Real Estate, CRE, employees, expert, factors, funding, government, harrisburg, home office, industrial, infrastructure, insight, issues, landlord, laws, lease, logistics, Mike Kushner, office, office environment, Omni Realty Group, pa, pennsylvania, professional, property, remote working, retail, sell, taxes, top 10, trends, virtual office

Impact of Eliminating Like-Kind-Exchange on Commercial Real Estate

Posted on January 18, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Right before the 2020 election took place, we shared important information as to how any new president of the United States would impact just about everything, including commercial real estate. Specifically, we examined Joe Biden’s plan to introduce a new probate real estate tax that would greatly reduce inheritances in the future as beneficiaries will have to pay tax on non-qualified assets. Now with President-Elect Joe Biden set to become the 46th President of the United States, the tax implications are becoming much more real and worthy of a closer look. Continue reading to learn how his platform will likely impact like-kind-exchange on commercial real estate, and what this could mean for you as a real estate investor.

The History of Like-Kind-Exchanges

Since 1921, investors have been permitted to defer paying capital gains taxes on investment property sales. In return, they must reinvest the proceeds into a similar investment property within a specified time frame, typically 45 days to identify the replacement property and 180 days to complete a transaction. To look at it another way, 1031 exchange (named from Section 1031 of the U.S. Internal Revenue Code to which it refers) is a swap of properties that are held for business or investment purposes. The properties being exchanged must be considered like-kind in the eyes of the IRS for capital gains taxes to be deferred. Biden’s policy proposal, which is referred to as “The Biden Plan for Mobilizing American Talent and Heart to Create a 21st Century Caregiving and Education Workforce” could eliminate 1031 like-kind exchanges for high earning real estate investors.

Proposed Changes

According to Biden’s administration, “The plan will cost $775 billion over 10 years and will be paid for by rolling back unproductive and unequal tax breaks for real estate investors with incomes over $400,000 and taking steps to increase tax compliance for high-income earners.”

The overarching goal of this change is to prevent investors from deferring the payment of taxes on the sale of real estate. On the surface, to those not investing in commercial real estate, such a change may seem positive or even necessary. But recent studies led by the Real Estate Research Consortium concluded that eliminating 1031 exchanges would disrupt many local property markets, harm both tenants and owners, and small investors.

Furthermore, a study conducted by David Ling Ph.D., a professor at the University of Florida, and Milena Petrova Ph.D., an associate professor at Syracuse University, claims that eliminating 1031 exchanges would likely lead to a decrease in commercial real estate prices in many markets, less reinvestment in commercial and residential real estate, a greater use of leverage to finance acquisitions, and an increase in investment holding periods that would result in a decrease in market liquidity and a slowdown in related industries.

The (Unintended) Impact

Simply put, the entire real estate sector benefits from such exchanges. Brokers and agents receive more deals, banks and mortgage lenders gain more borrowers, other property owners benefit from an increase in demand for real estate, tenants receive more affordable housing options, and cities and localities benefit from higher property taxes and more investments back into their real estate economy. So whatever perceived benefit Biden’s administration hopes to gain from eliminating like-kind exchanges in commercial real estate, they will certainly pay for, ten-fold, in negative consequences.

Here are just a few examples we can immediately spot. In the longer run, rents would need to increase from eight to 13 percent to offset the effects of elimination, and cost increases would be more pronounced in high-tax states (such as NY, NJ, CA, HI, MN). And in case anyone still believes that 1031 exchanges are an end-around used by the rich to never pay taxes, the estimated taxes paid when an exchange is followed by a taxable sale are on average 19 percent higher than taxes paid when an ordinary sale is followed by an ordinary sale.

A Done Deal?

Like anything in government and politics, nothing is set in stone until it’s, well, set in stone (or ink). So, Biden’s changes are by no means a done deal, and may take a good deal of time to come to fruition, if at all. Upon Biden becoming the nation’s 46th president, this does open the door to a whole host of changes that very well may impact commercial real estate investors on the take front. The best thing you can do right now, and this goes for anyone, not just CRE investors, is to meet with a tax advisor, tax, attorney, CPA, etc., to review what changes could be coming down the line and how this should impact the decisions you’re making today. As you prepare to close out your taxes for 2020, you may wish to make some changes and move things around to put you in a more favorable position for any changes that may be coming down the line.

How might the eliminations of like-kind-exchanges impact your financial future and the decisions you make regarding real estate? Do you feel this is a likely threat to CRE investments?

Join in the conversation and share your opinion by leaving a comment below.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, biden, central pa, Commercial Real Estate, CRE, finances, investment, Like-Kind-Exchange, Mike Kushner, money, Omni Realty Group, pennsylvania, property, real estate investment, real estate tax, taxes

How the Pandemic Stands to Impact Property Taxes in PA

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

School districts in Pennsylvania are working to set their budgets for the 2020-2021 school year, and are potentially facing a $1 billion loss in local revenue as a result of coronavirus, according to the Pennsylvania Association of School Board Officials (PASBO) study. Even if the economy recovers quickly, and there’s no predicting if it will, that still leaves schools with a predicted loss of $850 in revenue.

So how will they make up for the gap? Naturally, the focus shifts to property taxes. Raising property taxes is never a desired solution, but it’s among the most obvious and effective. While some school districts in the capital region are not considering a property tax increase, and instead choosing to cut programs, contract out services to reduce spending, or drawing upon reserves, many others say a tax increase is unavoidable.

Pennsylvania is not unique in this dilemma, just last month Nashville approved a 34% property tax increase to account for revenue loss as a result of COVID-19. For a property appraised at $250,000, that would mean an increase of about $666.25 per year. This tax increase, compounded by any other financial hardships property owners have faced this year is a significant stressor.

It’s important to note that in Pennsylvania that the Act 1 index caps how much school property tax rates can rise. It takes into account the average statewide weekly wage, which is likely to be lower in wake of this pandemic. To go above the index requires state or voter approval.

School districts across the Commonwealth are having their budgetary discussions now. As property owners, it’s important to stay aware of what’s being proposed in case it stands to impact the tax rate on your residential or commercial property. Let’s take a look at a few local school districts to see how they are addressing their budgetary issues and whether this could result in a property tax increase in your township.

Camp Hill School District

The Camp Hill School Board is recommending a 3% tax increase to support its preliminary $24.7 million budget for 2020-21. By going with a tax increase of that size, it left the district facing a $403,458 revenue shortfall as opposed to one that would be double that amount if the tax rate was frozen. The district anticipates a post-COVID-19 loss of nearly $431,000 in local and state revenue so it trimmed its proposed spending by $116,740 to adjust for that. It is looking to use some of its $6.2 million unassigned reserves to bring the budget into balance.

Central Dauphin School District

Central Dauphin School Board says they are looking at every possibility including cutting nearly $300,000 from their budget without giving up things that would pose difficulties for students. The board must next consider approving a preliminary $204.2 million budget that still has a $2.4 million revenue shortfall to close to bring it into balance. The options laid on the table for the board include a mix of ideas that range from no tax increase and dipping into reserves to raising property taxes by the 3.1% allowable tax increase under the Act 1 index.

Cumberland Valley School District

Cumberland Valley School Board feels that a property tax freeze is not feasible for the district. The district anticipates a $3.1 million loss in local revenue, $300,000 in lost interest earnings, and a projected budget deficit of $2.4 million. Without the additional $2.3 million in revenue the district would receive from an Act 1 index allowable property tax increase of 2.6%, the deficit grows to almost $5 million.

Derry Township School District

While no tax increase is expected in the Derry Township School District, it is going to be a challenging year. And Derry Township is in a particularly unique situation. The amusement tax brings in about $1.5 million annually, and with Hersheypark and its related venues being closed due to the coronavirus, that could be a big hit to their bottom line. How they plan to make up for the delta is still in discussion.

Lower Dauphin School District

Lower Dauphin School District has also been dealt a uniquely challenging hand. Not only are they dealing with the financial fallout of the coronavirus like everyone else, but they’re also the school district that’s home to Three Mile Island Nuclear Generation Station. The shutdown of TMI is a loss of roughly $300,000 in payments in addition to taxes that the plant once made. Despite the loss, the school board already approved a budget on Monday, and they were able to make ends meet without raising taxes by borrowing about $4 million from their reserve funds.

Northern York County School District

Northern York was already looking at a $1.5 million shortfall pre-CVOID, which had to do with health insurance increases, pension payments and other increases. Now with the expected loss of close to $1 million in earned income tax and less revenue from realty transfer taxes because of the hold put on real estate activity, that gap grows closer to $3.5 million. To bridge this gap, the district does not plan to increase property taxes, at least yet. Instead, they announced they would cut costs by moving to full day kindergarten which reduces midday transportation. They will also put a hold on any construction or renovation, and outsource its instructional aid duties to an educational agency.

West Shore School District

West Shore School District is anticipating a significant reduction in revenues related to earned income tax. As a result, a budget with a property-tax increase is currently on the table. For West Shore’s Cumberland County communities, it’s a 1.63 percent tax increase, and it’s an increase of 1.16 percent in York County. The budget also relies on $1 million from the school district’s reserves.

How would an increase in property taxes impact you? If you own commercial or residential real estate, this will affect you directly. And even if you don’t own real estate, there will still be a trickledown effect. If you rent your home or place of business, landlords may be forced to increase rent to pass off some of these costs. Or businesses may increase the cost of their goods or services to help balance their own books.

There are many unknowns in our community, government, and economy right now. What we do know is that everyone has endured change and hardship to some degree as the result of the pandemic. School districts, just like all of us, are looking hard for solutions that will keep them afloat while having the least negative impact on teachers, students, and the community.

What is your opinion on increasing property taxes to help school districts make up for financial losses due to COVID-19? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

Posted on April 28, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Trends No Comments

What does the major shift to virtual offices mean for commercial real estate?

All across our nation, businesses that once functioned from physical office space had to quickly transform their processes to function remotely as the government mandated stay-at-home orders to prevent the spread of the Coronavirus. This proved to be a strenuous and uncomfortable transition for most businesses, regardless of size or structure. Businesses with just a handful of employees, all the way up to organizations and institutions with thousands of employees scrambled to piece together the technologies and protocol that would allow them to remain functional, even when separated physically.

The typical boardroom meetings turned into Zoom calls, workshops and trainings that were to be conducted in-person, needed to mold into virtual delivery, and much more. As is to be expected, there was a steep learning curve and many technological challenges to overcome.

Now that Pennsylvania is more than a month into its statewide stay-at-home orders, many businesses have found new normal of working virtually. This is encouraging for those businesses who have managed to survive, and even thrive amidst such volatile times for our economy. However, it presents an uncertainty as to how businesses will choose to resume their traditional work environment, when they have permission to do so.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Nationally

Before COVID-19, around 43% of workers “occasionally” worked from home [versus 39% in 2012], 62% of workers said they could work remotely, and 80% of workers wanted to work from home at least “some of the time.” Working (remotely) through this pandemic will likely increase those percentages, spelling rough waters ahead for office landlords. Now during the stay-at-home and work-from-home orders, employers are seeing how they can operate with some or all their employees working remotely, and even do so as or more efficiently than when working from their traditional work environment.

As a result, it’s likely many employers will closely consider how they might leverage the cost-savings associated with reducing or completely eliminating the overhead of physical office space, which will result in increased office space vacancies, shorter leases, reduction of space needs from renewing tenants and less money available for tenant improvements. Vacancies will rise dramatically before they slowly decline. With approximately 8.1 billion square feet of office space nationally, the expected addition of another 335 million square feet through 2024 is very much in doubt.

The Impact on Commercial Office Space – Locally

Being the home of Pennsylvania’s capital will provide the Central PA region with some shelter, but there is little chance this market does not cool in the very near future. Employment gains have underperformed the national average for the duration of this cycle, and demographic trends are unfavorable. Residents are older, population growth is slow, and the state’s fiscal situation is, quite frankly, a mess.

Harrisburg is an underdeveloped capital compared to Columbus, Albany, and Annapolis; and the cultural epicenter of central Pennsylvania is in Lancaster. Harrisburg is trying to evolve into a knowledge-based economy and has adopted business-friendly incentives that have helped create nearly two dozen tech startups, which have generated 1,000 jobs. But the backbone of the economy still lies with Hershey and Rite Aid, which have headquarters in the region.

Fortunately, Central PA also has a strong education and medical economy that is reflective of statewide employment. Education and health services jobs, which now track evenly with government jobs in the state’s capital, grew by more than 4% annually. Expanding employment opportunities have increased demand for office space, and employment in office-using industries is well above pre-recession figures; but this remains, and likely will remain, a slow-growth market. Additionally, Pennsylvania as a whole will likely face significant financial problems after the virus subsides.

Vacancies currently sit at close to 6.6%, representing a year over year change of 0.0%, but are almost certain to spike in the very near future. While 12 month absorption figures (9,300 square-feet) can be negative, vacancies remain under control thanks to limited levels of new supply. The limited demand, and high number of small businesses operating here, could hamper the city for years if the quarantine carries on for months, as the federal government is estimating it will.

A New Work-From-Home Paradigm

When it comes to navigating the new work-from-home paradigm, we can expect “work-from-home” policies to be established to assure proper decorum, productivity standards, communication, and online protocols. Also watch for the adoption of four-day work weeks, shorter workdays, and greater reliance on technology for current employees. Extensions of sick leave “banking” and “healthy-to-come-to-work” standards are likely to become commonplace.

From the tech side of things, the use of platforms like Zoom, Go To Meeting and Blue Jeans video conferencing technology will become more popular alternatives than traditional in-person meetings. There will also be an increased expectation that these meetings will be as, or more productive than in-person meetings. Board management software and other secure online document management such as DocuSign, DropBox, and shared drives could electronically account for 70% – 75% of all “approval” transactions, for businesses who require such. Robust CRM (customer relationship management) platforms will be used increasingly to interact with customers and clients. Additionally, automation and outsourcing could replace 20% – 30% of employees who perform clerical, accounting, and administrative functions.

A Looming Recession

No matter how you look at things, the bottom line is that this pandemic will push the U.S. into a recession. There’s simply no way around it, at least immediately. Overall GDP growth in 2020 is expected to decline 10% – 13% which is the deepest recession on record. Some expect unemployment could rise to 10% – 15%, or higher, assuming a COVID-19 peak occurs by the 3Q.

The Central PA region has been significantly impacted by the Coronavirus. As of first quarter, the country closed up businesses and the federal government is estimating it will take months before there is a return to normalcy. There is no telling how long the shut out will occur, or what impact it could have on the Central PA office market, though it will likely be immense. Unemployment numbers are beginning to spike, and in the coming weeks, it is likely that hundreds of more businesses could fail, even with the Governor’s promise of reopening the Commonwealth on May 8. Additionally, rents will likely decline as vacancies skyrocket, and construction and investment activity will likely remain extraordinarily limited through the remainder of 2020.

The fundamentals of how Americans live, work, shop and play have changed and will not return to historical norms of behavior, consumption and lifestyles. The year 2020 will be analogous to the impacts of and transformative changes resulting from the Great Depression [1929 – 1932], which took more than 10 years to recover.

Where do we go from here?

Commercial real estate must look at this as an opportunity, just like every industry, to pause and pivot. The market prior to COVID-19 will not be the same market to which we will return. But we will return to something and we must learn to navigate this new landscape by remaining flexible, thoughtful, and strategic. Historically, Central PA has been able to withstand some of the most tumultuous economic storms on the past. Yes, gains are about to take a hard hit as the Coronavirus tears through the commercial real estate world, but this only means we need to bear down an be open to opportunities wherever they may arise.

One of the hardest hit areas of commercial real estate will be new construction. With little supply underway at second quarter, and the Coronavirus halting construction across the world, there is very little chance this market sees any notable projects deliver this year. Most projects since 2015 have either been build-to-suit efforts or significantly pre-leased prior to ground break.

With most new construction on hold, there could be the opportunity for existing office renovations. Many businesses may be looking to reconfigure their space to better isolate employees, adhere to whatever new social distancing protocols come from this, or install sanitary features like air purifying systems. Commercial real estate construction companies and developers would be wise to shift their focus to this type of work.

Another hard hit sector will be companies that provide shared and collaborative office space, like WeWork. In fact, society as a whole is likely to question the open office, collaborative work space, and creative office floor plans. Many businesses and sole proprietors chose to cancel their memberships to such services during the pandemic and it will be exceptionally challenging to regain all that was lost once the stay-at-home orders are lifted. For those who have found that they can effectively work from their own home office spaces, they may continue to do so in an effort to lighten overhead costs. Others may have been hit so hard by the pandemic that there is not a business to which they can return, further reducing their need for office space.

Again, the opportunity here is to reconfigure both the physical shared office spaces to be better isolated and sanitary, but also rethink the business model of how companies charge for space. Being flexible and fluid for business owners as they navigate the new normal is key right now.

To close on a positive not, the one clear winner in the office sector will be healthcare, medical office buildings, and biotech facilities. This sector is expected to grow 10% – 16% annually over the next decade as the entire local, county, state, and national healthcare facilities infrastructure and platform are reshaped, integrated and expanded as society mends and strengths as a result of a pandemic like the world has never seen.

If you are a commercial real estate professional, how have you been impacted thus far by COVID-19. Or if you are a business owner or employee who has transitioned to a virtual work environment, how do you anticipate this experience to transition your “new normal” once the stay-at-home order is lifted?

Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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Considering a Commercial Real Estate Investment Property? Read This First!

Posted on November 26, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Investing in commercial real estate can be one of the most lucrative real estate investments you can make. Investors can realize extraordinary capital gains and huge cash flow wins. On the flip side, there can be quite a drastically different outcome when your CRE investment properties sustain long vacancies or big drops in market value.

For many reasons, investing in commercial real estate can be higher risk than other types of real estate investments. This is why it’s so important to be well versed with its nuances and trends – or to have a trusted advisor who is. To put yourself in the best position for a favorable return on your investment, there are certain things anyone thinking about investing in commercial real estate should know. Here is a brief overview of the things you should think about to determine if investing in commercial real estate is right for you.

Start with a Solid Plan

Before you embark on any big undertaking, you should always begin with a plan. The same is just as true for commercial real estate investments. Before investing your hard-earned cash or equity in a commercial property, you should first have a proper investment plan in place that fully equips you to identify the right property for your portfolio. Without a framework to guide your decisions, you may make the mistake of buying a property on impulse or out of pressure from others, even when it really doesn’t fit your goals for long-term strategy, risk mitigation, capital growth and, cash flow.

Understand the Time Required to See a Return

Next, do your research to gain an understanding of a realistic time frame to see a return. Many new investors dive into things thinking they’ll surely see a return in a fraction of the time it will really take to fully develop the investment and make it profitable. Pulling out too early can mean losing a substantial part of your investment, so be sure you plan for the appropriate amount of time that your money may be tied up in a particular commercial real estate investment.

Join with Other Professionals Who Share Your Goals

Successful commercial investors rarely go it alone. They build a team of other professionals who share their same goals. A successful team includes commercial buyer’s agent, appraisers, commercial property inspectors, engineers, lenders and closing attorneys. All of whom are all an essential part of achieving success in real estate investing and who work together to set a clear strategy, conduct detailed research, and source the correct property at a fair price, and with the right conditions that fit the team’s goals. When it comes to choosing your team, choose wisely. Others involved should complement your own shortfalls in knowledge, and in return you may be able to supplement theirs.

Compare and Contrast Your Investment Opportunities

It might seem obvious, but those new to commercial investing often overpay. One of the best ways to prevent yourself from making this mistake is to know where the value point is on the property, be fully aware of comparable prices for any similar properties, and not become focused on the cash flow and lease structure. Paying too much for commercial property locks up your funds in a more rigid way than it would with residential real estate. Banks are far more reluctant to provide equity releases or cash outs for commercial investing.

Do Your Due Diligence

It’s okay to start out cautious. One of the biggest mistakes new commercial real estate investors make is signing on the dotted line without doing their due diligence. If this feels like a daunting task to take on, consider working with an experienced buyer’s agent whose job it is to analyze the property cash flows, educate the buyer on market value and market lease rates, and recommend other professionals (mentioned above). It takes time, resources, and an understanding of market connections to fully vet a commercial investment opportunity.

Consider Additional Expenses Beyond Your Investment

Smart commercial real estate investors know they must carefully allocate their budgets so there is sufficient coverage for expenses such as the mortgage, taxes, insurance, and advertising. When you don’t have enough cash flow to fund these areas, your property can quickly become a liability when really it should be an asset.

Keep an Open Mind

Just because your former tenant was a medical office doesn’t mean your new tenant has to be. This is why buying versatile commercial properties that allow a number of options is a wise investment strategy. When the real estate market fluctuates, you’re better prepared to tackle unexpected situations and experience fewer losses when doing so.

Have Contingency Plans

Finally and most importantly, you need to have at least one, if not multiple contingency plans in place in case things should take an unexpected turn. Investing in commercial real estate always comes with risks, some more than others. You need to be prepared to lose it all; therefore, you should have a plan in place of how you will react – and rebound – if that happens.

What is your experience with commercial real estate investments? Whether you’re a seasoned expert in this field, or have just started to explore the options available to you, giving these topics close consideration with each and every investment will put you in the best potion for a favorable return.

Do you have something to add to this list? Share your input by leaving a comment below!

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What’s the difference between a listing agent and tenant rep agent?

Posted on April 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

The use of the term real estate agent casts a broad umbrella under which people tend to lump all real estate professionals into the same category. The truth is that there is a big difference between the role of a listing agent and a tenant/buyer agent. While both might be referred to as simply a “real estate agent,” it’s important to understand when and how you would use each when it comes to buying or selling real estate.

Listing Agent – A listing agent might also be referred to as a seller’s agent. This is the person who represents the seller or landlord in a deal. His or her job is to list and market the property to attract potential buyers, then negotiate an acceptable deal on behalf of the seller.

Tenant/Buyer Agent – On the other side of the deal you have the tenant/buyer agent. This is the person who represents the tenant or buyer looking to lease or purchase property. His or her job is to find and bring a tenant/buyer to properties which meet their criteria, then represent them in a deal to ensure terms and pricing is fair to the buyer.

How is a listing agent compensated?

Most commonly, a listing agent signs an exclusive right-to-sell/lease listing with the seller/landlord, meaning only the listing agent’s brokerage is entitled to an agreed upon commission upon the sale or lease of the property. The brokerage then typically shares the commission with the agent. Exclusive listings are bilateral agreements between a broker and a seller/landlord. It’s important to know that a listing actually belong to the broker or brokerage, not the listing agent unless he is also owner of the brokerage.  However, it is important to make the distinction between a tenant/buyer agent and a subagent of the seller/landlord.  If the tenant/buyer does not have a formal written agreement with the tenant/buyer agent then the agent who is showing the property and providing information to the tenant/buyer is considered a subagent of the listing agent and is not representing the interests of the tenant/buyer.

How is a tenant/buyer agent compensated?

Generally, the listing agent cooperates with the tenant/buyer agent and shares a portion of the earned commission in exchange for bringing a tenant/buyer to the table, if that tenant/buyer then submits an offer that the seller accepts. This is referred to as a “co-op” commission. It’s important to note that a tenant/buyer agent is at no cost to the tenant/buyer.

Do I really need to work with an agent?

Legally, no. You are not required to work with an agent and can opt to list your property as a For Sale By Owner (FSBO). But there are benefits to working with a listing agent. Foremost, it becomes their responsibility to market and sell your property in a timely fashion and for an agreeable price. They will schedule showings and handle all of this for you. Many sellers benefit from working with a listing agent because their property may sell faster and at a higher price point than if they decided to go it alone. Also, many people value having a professional to take these time-consuming tasks off their hands.

If you are on the other side of the deal as a tenant/buyer, again you do not legally need to work with a tenant/buyer agent in order to buy or lease a property. However, similarly to the points regarding working with a listing agent, a buyer may also experience benefits when working with a tenant/buyer agent. Foremost, you will have their knowledge and expertise to guide you through the buying/leasing process, and someone who will represent your best interests. A tenant/buyer agent can also make your property search less time consuming by showing you only properties that they know fit your criteria. Think of them as your tenant/buyer “concierge.”

Can the listing agent also be the selling agent?

Simply stated, no. A listing agent should not be the selling agent within the same deal. Why? Because there is a major conflict of interest in doing so. Think of it like having the same lawyer represent both the defense and the prosecution in a case. Neither side will receive fully unbiased, honest representation, and the counsel walks away with twice the compensation. In fact, states such as California have gone as far as making such “dual agency” practices illegal.

Too often, a tenant/buyer begins looking at property without hiring a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent) to exclusively represent them. Usually they do not realize that a selling agent is not at the cost of the tenant/buyer, since the tenant/buyer agent will normally co-broke a commission with the listing agent. A tenant/buyer agent is compensated by splitting the commission with the listing agent. So, the client gets representation at no cost.  The commission arrangement between the owner and listing agent will be paid whether or not the tenant/buyer has representation.

Without representation, tenants or buyers often find themselves needing the expertise, advocacy and unbiased advice of a listing agent. This can result in a number of troubling issues and frustrations for the tenant/buyer. These include losing the upper hand in negotiations, being subject to unfair pricing and unsatisfactory terms and too late realizing that things could have gone far better if they had a professional dedicated solely to representing their best interests.

When it comes to understanding the differences between a listing agent and a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent), the most important take away is that whatever side of the deal you’re on, you want to be sure you have your own representation to advocate for your best interests and negotiate a favorable deal.

 

 

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A Decline in International Students Will Hurt a Lot More than Colleges and Universities

Posted on March 22, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Community, Trends No Comments

According to a report by MarketWatch, the number of overseas students coming to the U.S. for grad school declined for the second year in a row. There is much speculation as to what could be causing this trend; however, one reappearing theme ties back to the current political climate here in the United States.

As you likely remember, President Donald Trump initiated a ban on people entering the U.S. from multiple Muslim-majority countries, all of which have a track record of sending students to America for higher education. It’s not difficult to see a near-immediate impact. For example, U.S. graduate school applications from Iran, one of the countries targeted by the travel ban, fell 27% between fall 2017 and fall 2018. The travel ban isn’t the only blamed culprit. President Trump has floated changes to student visas that would reduce the amount of time international students can stay in the U.S.

Naturally, colleges and universities in the U.S. who rely on international students to make up a significant portion of their admissions are concerned. If the U.S. continues to present hurdles that make it unappealing, if not impossible for certain international students to study in the U.S., our colleges and universities are not the only pillars of our community who should be concerned. A decline in international students will have a ripple effect on our economy which will flow into many different industries, including real estate.

How significant is this impact and what industries should be most concerned? Let’s take a closer look at the economic impact of fewer international students coming to the U.S.

International Students Drive Economic Growth

Simply put, international students are pivotal to our economy. First, they often pay the highest tuition rates which is why colleges and universities carefully account for enrolling so many international students to keep their budgets in line. Next, while international students are studying in the U.S., they are spending money on food, clothing, living essentials, as well as renting space to live. Many smaller colleges have built on-campus apartments primarily for the use of their international students. Compared to students that reside with their parents and commute to school, international students have a markedly different economic impact on the school and the surrounding community.

To put a value on this point, the Institute of International Education, an organization that promotes research and international study, estimates that international students contributed $39 billion to the U.S. economy in 2017. In fact, some colleges and universities rely so heavily upon their international students that they have gone as far as taking out an insurance policy to protect themselves against the drop in international enrollment!

A Local Look

The facts and stats reporting the decline in international students coming to the U.S. takes a national look, but what about locally here in Central Pennsylvania? Are we seeing the same trends? One of the area’s leading universities for international enrollment is Penn State Harrisburg. College Factual ranks Penn State Harrisburg as 114th out of a total 1,300 colleges and universities for popularity with international students. And the pool of international students is diverse. At least 50 countries are represented on the Penn State Harrisburg campus with the most being from China, India, and, South Korea.

Interestingly from 2011 to 2016, enrollment of international students has been steadily increasing with 716 international students being enrolled at Penn State Harrisburg in 2016. What this doesn’t account for is the most recent travel ban and change to student visas implemented in 2017-2018 that would not be reflected in this data; however, it is likely to be released soon. With international students making up about 14.2% of the student body at Penn State Harrisburg, should the University also experience the decrease in international enrollment that has been sweeping the nation, it will join the ranks of so many other educational institutions hurting due to this downward trend.

As It Relates to Real Estate

It’s clear how international students impact the colleges and universities in which they are enrolled, but what impact do they really have on real estate and is this decline enough to cause any significant changes to our residential and commercial real estate markets?

International students arriving in the U.S. to study are in immediate need of semi long-term housing, typically at least two years and up to 6+ years depending upon the type of degree they are pursuing. International students can technically choose to purchase real estate on their student visa, but mortgages and lending have a whole host of challenges, making cash to most desirable and feasible option for purchasing home a home. Most commonly, international students decide to rent real estate either from the college or university that they are attending or from a landlord in the community.

Depending upon the demand for off-campus student housing, some real estate investors have created a significant business around owning and renting out real estate to students, including international students. Should there be a severe enough decline in international students, this could cause a decrease in demand for real estate. Property owners will need to make a strategic decision to either ride this wave, with a decreased income for an unknown period of time, or sell off some of their properties if they feel this trend could last a while.

Additionally, should a decline in international students persist, colleges and universities whose campus housing is mostly occupied by international students are not likely to invest in renovating or adding to this real estate until the decline stabilizes and/or reverses.

Key Things to Keep in Mind

All-in-all, this trend in decreasing enrollment from international students is one we must keep an eye on for a variety of reasons. When our colleges and universities are economically impacted, it is highly likely that other businesses and the community as a whole will also feel an impact. Should this provide to be a short-lived trend that passes as the political climate changes, there is the probable outcome that things will return to normal and possibly better than before.

However, we would be shortsighted to not think beyond forces within the U.S. To compound the issue, other counties are also competing for international students and are surely making every effort to market themselves as the most attractive option. It will be a constant battle for the U.S. to retain and grow its international students. Given our country’s reputation for high-quality education, this is not an impossible feat, but we must remain strategic to stay ahead of the curve!

What do you feel are the most critical areas to be impacted by a decline in international students? Beyond colleges and universities what other industries will be most significantly impacted?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

 

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How Opportunity Zones Could Impact Central PA Real Estate

Posted on December 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.


Opportunity Zones are being referred to as “real estate’s most exciting new investment vehicle,” but what are they and can they really live up to this title?

How this type of investment works and why it stands to be so beneficial is essentially this: capital gains are invested in Opportunity Zones, taxes are deferred, the basis is lowered, taxes are then paid in 2026 (at the same nominal value as in 2018), and after 2028 the Opportunity Zone holding can be sold with no capital gains tax due.

Better yet, there are very few restrictions on the properties in which one can invest. It’s estimated that there are $2.3 trillion worth of unrealized capital gains in the U.S. Even if only 15 percent of this is invested in Opportunity Zones, this will exceed the 2017 corporate income tax revenue and almost match the Medicaid spend of that same year.

The potential benefits don’t stop there. Opportunity Zones can also provide a tax deferral on gain that investors invest in a fund, and the elimination of gain in the new Opportunity Zone investment if it is held for more than 10 years.

This should paint a clearer picture as to why Opportunity Zones have real estate investors abuzz. To answer the most essential questions related to Opportunity Zones, and specifically how they stand to impact Central Pennsylvania real estate, Omni Realty has asked Silas Chamberlin to share his expertise and insight on this topic.

Silas Chamberlin, PhD is the Vice President, Economic & Community Development at York County Economic Alliance. Prior to joining YCEA in fall of 2018, he served as CEO of Downtown Inc. Chamberlin has also served as executive director of the Schuylkill River National Heritage Area, an organization promoting economic revitalization in five counties of southeastern Pennsylvania. And he has held leadership positions in the non-profit sector and state government. Throughout his career, Chamberlin has focused on helping communities leverage their unique assets to create opportunities for economic development and a higher-quality of life.

Mike Kushner of Omni Realty and Silas Chamberlin jump right to the meat of things starting with the local impact of Opportunity Zones, using the Greater York Area as a sampling.

Omni: How many census tracts in York County were approved for the Opportunity Zone program? And where?

Silas Chamberlin: York County has five designated tracts. All tracts are located in the City of York and are the tracts which encompass most of the city’s brownfield sites. Tracts in Hanover and Wrightsville were eligible for designation, but were not selected by the state.

Omni: Specifically, how will this program benefit the Greater York Area and how soon do you expect to see an initial impact?

SC: Opportunity Zones will attract additional investment to qualified projects in our five opportunity zones. The tax break should help draw investors’ attention to projects that have not benefited from private investment in the past. YCEA is a working partner to help identify viable projects within the zones to market to Qualified Opportunity Fund investors. We are also vetting the creation of local and regional funds focused on the city’s zones.

In theory, we could see funds begin investing in qualified projects at any time. Opportunity Zones are intentionally driven by the free market and individual investment decisions, so it is difficult to tell how much investment will end up in York. Observers at the national level have noted that there may be more private capital available than viable projects, so York should certainly position itself to take full advantage.

Omni: Are the tax breaks provided through this program enough to incentivize private investors and spur activity?

SC: The short answer is yes. But it would be inaccurate to view Opportunity Zones as a panacea that will turn vacant buildings into viable investment opportunities overnight. The most competitive projects will be those that are already viable without Opportunity Zone funds, but would benefit from additional investment.

Unlike New Markets Tax Credits or other popular programs, Opportunity Fund investments are unlikely to subsidize a project because the project must be able to grow in value and return an investment to the fund. YCEA’s strategy is to identify viable projects within Opportunity Zones and then use the designation to attract investors’ attention. We see this as yet another tool in our economic development financing toolbox.

Omni: Are there any drawbacks to the Opportunity Zone program?

SC: Opportunity Zones rely on a self-certification process for creating a fund, which means that investors have lots of autonomy. This also means that economic development organizations and municipalities may not always be aware of investments being made in their zones. Because the zones are distressed areas by definition, there is a higher risk that outside investment could change neighborhoods and business districts without any local engagement or controls. There are potential controls that could help guide development in Opportunity Zones—such as zoning overlays—but these tools are not yet well developed, especially in smaller cities.

Finally, there is the risk for disappointment. Opportunity Zones absolutely provide another tool to attract investment, but there is a risk in promoting them as transformational and raising the hopes of residents and developers that untapped capital will begin flowing into the census tracts that need it the most. While there is reason to be hopeful, the reality of matching qualified investors to viable projects may narrow the scope and impact of the tax break.

The Bottom Line

Experts predict that after an initial wave of Opportunity Zone fund offerings in early 2019, there may be a pause that coincides with the issuance of additional regulations during which market participants will evaluate fund and project structures. After that, barring the rise of general economic headwinds, it should be full steam ahead for Opportunity Zone funds moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, Opportunity Zone projects need to be viewed as development projects because the requirement is to create new property or substantially improve property. To reemphasize Silas Chamberlin’s point, there is surely reason to be hopeful that Opportunity Zones will flow capital into census tracts that need it the most. But we must remain cautiously optimistic about how quickly and substantially this capital will come about. Much like anything related to real estate, and especially real estate investment, most outcomes remain at the mercy of the market and ever-changing government regulations.

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