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Census Data: National and Local Trends You Need to Watch

Posted on June 3, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Census data provides a fascinating look into population growth trends that stand to have a profound impact on our economy, both locally and nationally. More than just being “interesting” data to study, population growth and decline points us to important trends that will reshape supply and demand in various industries, one of the most prominent being real estate.

Just last month, the US Census Bureau released new population estimates. These estimates account for and compare the resident population for counties between the dates of April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2018. The outcome? There are shifts in population taking place across the nation that may differ from what you might assume. Let’s take a look at some of the highlights from this data from a national and local level.

At a National Level

South and West Lead Population Growth

The census data confirmed that counties with the largest numeric growth are located in the south and the west regions. In fact, Texas claimed four out of the top 10 spots. Looking at population growth by metropolitan area, Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas, had the largest numeric growth with a gain of 131,767 people, or 1.8 percent taking place in 2018. Second was Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Arizona which had an increase of 96,268 people, or 2.0 percent. The cause of growth in these areas is the result of migration, both domestic and international, as well as natural increase. In Dallas, it was natural increase which served as the largest source of population growth, whereas in Phoenix I was migration.

Fastest Growth Occurred Outside of Metropolitan Areas

Surprisingly, no new metro areas moved into the top 10 largest areas. Of the 390 metro areas within the US (including the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico), 102 of these areas, or 26.2 percent experienced population decline in 2018. The five fastest-decreasing metro areas (excluding PR) were Charleston, West Virginia (-1.6 percent); Pine Bluff, Arkansas. (-1.5 percent); Farmington, New Mexico (-1.5 percent); Danville, Illinois (-1.2 percent); and Watertown-Fort Drum, New York (-1.2 percent). The population decreases were primarily due to negative net domestic migration.

North Dakota Claims Fastest Growing County

Among counties with a population of 20,000 or more, Williams County, North Dakota claimed the top spot as the fastest-growing county by percentage. This county increased by 5.9 percent between 2017 and 2018 (from 33,395 to 35,350 people). The rapid growth Williams County experienced was due mainly to net domestic migration, 1,471 people, in 2018. The county also experienced growth between 2017 and 2018 by both natural increase of 427 people, and international migration of 52 people.

More Growth than Decline

Out of 3,142 counties, 1,739 (or 55.3 percent) gained population between 2017 and 2018. Twelve counties (0.4 percent) experienced no change in population, and the remaining 1,391 (or 44.3 percent) lost population. Between 2010 and 2018, a total of 1,481 (or 47.1 percent) counties gained population and 1,661 (or 52.9 percent) lost population. Though there has been more growth than decline overall, the numbers indicate that this can easily shift year over year.

At a Local Level

Dauphin County

Lancaster County

York County

Cumberland County

Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster and York Experience Consistent Growth

The most notable trend to take place between 2010 and 2018 in Central PA is that these counties all experienced consistent growth year-over-year. Moreover the growth occurred fairly evenly over the last 8 years. This provides consistency and enables the economy to respond to the growth over a reasonable amount of time.

Counties Also Maintain Same Order of Ranking in Population

Another trend worth noting is that the counties have maintained the same order of ranking based upon population for 8+ years. For example, in 2010 these counties in order of smallest population to largest population was Cumberland, Dauphin, York, Lancaster. This is the same ranking we see in 2018, and every year in between. No county surpassed another at any point.

Lancaster Remains Largest and Fastest Growing County

Lancaster County has a major lead in population over the others. At 984 square miles, it is also the largest of the 4 counties. Between 2010 and 2018 it also experienced the largest numeric growth at 24,112 people. Number two in numeric growth was actually the smallest of the four counties, Cumberland County, which grew by 16,017 people. York County grew by 13,301 people and Dauphin County grew by 8,997 people.

Overall, the latest US Census offers valuable and insightful information related to population growth between 2010 and 2018. Understanding the cause of either growth or decline provides framework for how these shifts may continue on their course, or change in the future.

A deeper dive into the census data reveals several demographic changes impacting commercial real estate development: household formations, aging baby boomers, growing millennials, women in the workforce, and migration toward the South.

Today’s demographic changes present challenges for commercial real estate developers, but they also offer lucrative opportunities to firms creatively adapting to new demands.

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How Opportunity Zones Could Impact Central PA Real Estate

Posted on December 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Opportunity Zones are being referred to as “real estate’s most exciting new investment vehicle,” but what are they and can they really live up to this title?

How this type of investment works and why it stands to be so beneficial is essentially this: capital gains are invested in Opportunity Zones, taxes are deferred, the basis is lowered, taxes are then paid in 2026 (at the same nominal value as in 2018), and after 2028 the Opportunity Zone holding can be sold with no capital gains tax due.

Better yet, there are very few restrictions on the properties in which one can invest. It’s estimated that there are $2.3 trillion worth of unrealized capital gains in the U.S. Even if only 15 percent of this is invested in Opportunity Zones, this will exceed the 2017 corporate income tax revenue and almost match the Medicaid spend of that same year.

The potential benefits don’t stop there. Opportunity Zones can also provide a tax deferral on gain that investors invest in a fund, and the elimination of gain in the new Opportunity Zone investment if it is held for more than 10 years.

This should paint a clearer picture as to why Opportunity Zones have real estate investors abuzz. To answer the most essential questions related to Opportunity Zones, and specifically how they stand to impact Central Pennsylvania real estate, Omni Realty has asked Silas Chamberlin to share his expertise and insight on this topic.

Silas Chamberlin, PhD is the Vice President, Economic & Community Development at York County Economic Alliance. Prior to joining YCEA in fall of 2018, he served as CEO of Downtown Inc. Chamberlin has also served as executive director of the Schuylkill River National Heritage Area, an organization promoting economic revitalization in five counties of southeastern Pennsylvania. And he has held leadership positions in the non-profit sector and state government. Throughout his career, Chamberlin has focused on helping communities leverage their unique assets to create opportunities for economic development and a higher-quality of life.

Mike Kushner of Omni Realty and Silas Chamberlin jump right to the meat of things starting with the local impact of Opportunity Zones, using the Greater York Area as a sampling.

Omni: How many census tracts in York County were approved for the Opportunity Zone program? And where?

Silas Chamberlin: York County has five designated tracts. All tracts are located in the City of York and are the tracts which encompass most of the city’s brownfield sites. Tracts in Hanover and Wrightsville were eligible for designation, but were not selected by the state.

Omni: Specifically, how will this program benefit the Greater York Area and how soon do you expect to see an initial impact?

SC: Opportunity Zones will attract additional investment to qualified projects in our five opportunity zones. The tax break should help draw investors’ attention to projects that have not benefited from private investment in the past. YCEA is a working partner to help identify viable projects within the zones to market to Qualified Opportunity Fund investors. We are also vetting the creation of local and regional funds focused on the city’s zones.

In theory, we could see funds begin investing in qualified projects at any time. Opportunity Zones are intentionally driven by the free market and individual investment decisions, so it is difficult to tell how much investment will end up in York. Observers at the national level have noted that there may be more private capital available than viable projects, so York should certainly position itself to take full advantage.

Omni: Are the tax breaks provided through this program enough to incentivize private investors and spur activity?

SC: The short answer is yes. But it would be inaccurate to view Opportunity Zones as a panacea that will turn vacant buildings into viable investment opportunities overnight. The most competitive projects will be those that are already viable without Opportunity Zone funds, but would benefit from additional investment.

Unlike New Markets Tax Credits or other popular programs, Opportunity Fund investments are unlikely to subsidize a project because the project must be able to grow in value and return an investment to the fund. YCEA’s strategy is to identify viable projects within Opportunity Zones and then use the designation to attract investors’ attention. We see this as yet another tool in our economic development financing toolbox.

Omni: Are there any drawbacks to the Opportunity Zone program?

SC: Opportunity Zones rely on a self-certification process for creating a fund, which means that investors have lots of autonomy. This also means that economic development organizations and municipalities may not always be aware of investments being made in their zones. Because the zones are distressed areas by definition, there is a higher risk that outside investment could change neighborhoods and business districts without any local engagement or controls. There are potential controls that could help guide development in Opportunity Zones—such as zoning overlays—but these tools are not yet well developed, especially in smaller cities.

Finally, there is the risk for disappointment. Opportunity Zones absolutely provide another tool to attract investment, but there is a risk in promoting them as transformational and raising the hopes of residents and developers that untapped capital will begin flowing into the census tracts that need it the most. While there is reason to be hopeful, the reality of matching qualified investors to viable projects may narrow the scope and impact of the tax break.

The Bottom Line

Experts predict that after an initial wave of Opportunity Zone fund offerings in early 2019, there may be a pause that coincides with the issuance of additional regulations during which market participants will evaluate fund and project structures. After that, barring the rise of general economic headwinds, it should be full steam ahead for Opportunity Zone funds moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, Opportunity Zone projects need to be viewed as development projects because the requirement is to create new property or substantially improve property. To reemphasize Silas Chamberlin’s point, there is surely reason to be hopeful that Opportunity Zones will flow capital into census tracts that need it the most. But we must remain cautiously optimistic about how quickly and substantially this capital will come about. Much like anything related to real estate, and especially real estate investment, most outcomes remain at the mercy of the market and ever-changing government regulations.

[Online Resources] Real Estate, business, central pa, commercial, Construction, CRE, development, government, growth, harrisburg, jobs, lancaster, Mike Kushner, monety, Omni Realty Group, opportunity zone, pennsylvania, property, real estate investor, renovation, residential, silas chamerblin, tax break, taxes, york, york ounty economic alliance

Growing Demand for “Live-Work-Play” Communities in Central PA

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Community, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Photo: Walden in Mechanicsburg, PA

If you’ve been a resident of Central Pennsylvania for more than a few years, you’ve likely seen various live-work-play (LWP) communities – maybe you even live in one. What we’re talking about it mixed-use commercial and residential real estate where people have the opportunity to live, work and play (shop, dine, etc.) all in a relatively close distance to one another. A great example is the Walden community in Mechanicsburg, but there are many others that we will examine in this article.

To help us explore this growing trend, we turned to Chris LeBarton who is a Senior Market Analyst with CoStar Group. Chris covers commercial real estate data in Western Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area, up through Central Pennsylvania for CoStar’s Market Analytics platform.

Chris joins Mike Kushner of Omni Realty Group for a Q&A series where we specifically look at the growing demand for LWP communities in Central PA – and what this means for CRE professionals. Here is how Chris answers our most pressing questions.

Omni: When did the LWP trend begin and how has it grown?

Chris LeBarton: The earliest usage of LWP spaces I can find was in 2005. The trend really started to grow in popularity leading up to the market crash, but there’s no correlation between the two that I can see. The term “live-work-play” was very likely used prior to that, but I’m guessing the branding of mixed-use development really took off as concepts of ‘walkable urbanism’ and ‘Transit Oriented Development’ (TOD) exploded across the country.

According to the Urban Land Institute’s Mixed-Use Development Handbook, which was published in 2003, mixed-use development: provides three or more significant revenue-producing uses (such as retail/entertainment, office, residential, hotel, and/or civic/cultural/recreation); fosters integration, density, and compatibility of land uses, and; creates a walkable community with uninterrupted pedestrian connections.

Omni: Describe a LWP community in Central PA.

Chris LeBarton: First, let’s clarify what a LWP community really is, and what it is not. Some economic development entities and marketing types play pretty fast and loose with the term. An area can be a really nice place to live, work and play in, but if there’s over a mile or so between one element of the triad and the other two legs of the stool aren’t in the same building/development, it’s not really a LWP dynamic. Of course, the likelihood that most people who live in one of these communities also works in the same office/industrial park nearby is fairly low. But being able to do all three and be largely reliant on public transportation or your own two feet is really the spirit of the LWP concept.

Another key element to understand is that LWP is not at all relegated to a city environment. In fact, part of these projects’ collective appeal is that they can recreate a city environment without being in the hustle and bustle of a CBD. Specifically in Central Pennsylvania, there are a number of LWP developments. Here are just a few:

Lime Spring Square (Lancaster/Hempfield Township): A multi-phase, mixed-use campus being developed by Oaktree Development Group, the end result will include over 100,000 SF of retail, several hundred high-end apartments, and components of office, medical and industrial space. Penn State Health has a 76,000 SF medical office building there, while PDQ Industries is expanding operations into an 80,000 SF building.
North Cornwall Commons (Lebanon/North Cornwall Township): Another phased project that has been delayed off and on since being proposed in 2004, North Cornwall Commons is finally seeing movement at what would be the largest mixed-use development in Lebanon County history. A retail strip center with at least one confirmed tenant (a local coffee business) is underway at 148-acre site that includes plans for roughly 165 townhomes, office space and a hotel.
The 1500 Condominium (Harrisburg): An example of how you don’t have to have everything in one place, 1500 has 43 units (mostly rentals) that sit over top of two restaurants and is within walking distance to the Broad Street Market and several small-to-medium sized employers.
Wyomissing Square (Reading/Wyomissing Borough): A quintessential brownfield redevelopment, Wyomissing Square now consists of 250 4 Star apartments, a Courtyard by Marriott, small-scale retail, restaurants, and a 60,000 SF medical office building.

Omni: Who is the target demographic for this type of community?

Chris LeBarton: As with anything that deals with where people live, shop/eat or work, I think the answer is “All of the Above.” We hear all too often about Millennials, or Boomers, or Downsizers, or Divorcees. Honestly, the more conversations I have with leasing agents and brokers the more I’m convinced the rule is diversity and the exception is homogeneity. Granted, most of these LWP sites cater to the more upscale or educated among society, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be families with two working blue collar parents who make a decent living and who want to save money on a car/parking and live close to work.

Omni: What advice could help commercial real estate professionals capitalize on the LWP trend?

Chris LeBarton: I don’t give investment advice, but here are a couple thoughts. First, find a way to make it authentic. Be it the retail mix, or a unique concept to the green space, or simply having the “town center” not look boiler plate, be conscientious of that buzz word “place making.” If you’re going to basically spend the majority of your waking life in a small area, it can’t be boring or cookie cutter.

Next, think ahead. What will you need to provide 3-5 years from now? Who would have thought that cities would be crawling with scooters?! Or even just electric vehicles. People looking to walk or be publicly transported or drive as little/cheaply as possible will likely demand options and flexibility. Things to consider are multiple charging stations, bike share platforms, car-share parking lots, etc.

Finally, identify fairly gentrified but not-yet-there locations that are retail/grocery deserts. LWP in the middle of a depressed community won’t work in many places (there are exceptions, of course). But cool/changing areas that are the next ‘it place’ often still need the food and fun to complete the shift.

Omni: Looking to the future, how do you predict LWP communities to evolve in Central PA?

Chris LeBarton: I think you can expect to see more of these types of projects turn up around dying malls or outlet centers that have to repurpose big blocks of space. Another interesting new trend that I could see taking off is the rise of co-living and co-working spaces in the same building.

The LWP trend stands to have a significant impact on Central PA’s commercial real estate market. Because LWP communities rejuvenate the local community, drive business and create employment opportunities, Central PA should be encouraged that so many of these communities are popping up across the region. Additionally this type of real estate appeals to a wide variety of demographics, making it a valuable investment opportunity for commercial real estate professionals. Looking to the future, LWP communities could be among the most powerful tools to breathe new life into struggling areas, and spur a burst of new economic activity that is greatly needed.

What are your thoughts on the growing demand for live-work-place communities in Central Pennsylvania? Is this type of community attractive to you? Why or why not?

[Online Resources] Real Estate, analyst, buyers agent, camp hill, carlisle, central pennsylvania, chris lebarton, Commercial Real Estate, costar, CRE, harrisburg, hershey, lancaster, live work play, local, LWP, mechanicsburg, Mike Kushner, mixed use, office, Omni Realty Group, pennsylvania, real estate agent, real estate broker, real estate investor, residential, retail, tenant representative, trends, york

Real Estate Trends to Impact the United States in 2018

Posted on December 27, 2017 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Rapid technological advancements and significant demographic shifts significantly influence the real estate industry. These various factors like growing urbanization, longevity of Baby Boomers and differentiated lifestyle patterns of Millennials are changing the way people value real estate. Add into the mix macroeconomic and regulatory developments, and you have the perfect storm for some significant changes to come to the real estate market in 2018.

With the many changes that have already taken place in 2017, many real estate companies find themselves searching for ways in which they can gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in the New Year.

To achieve this, we must identify and monitor emerging trends that are likely to impact the economy moving into 2018. Take a look at the top trends that are shaping the U.S. real estate industry right now!

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: Increasing interest rates could temper growth

Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates in the short-to-medium term. Volatile global markets have led to continued low interest rates, but that’s expected to come to an end in 2018. Higher interest rates are likely to increase mortgage costs and could deter real estate investments to some extent.
Gross domestic product growth will likely increase 2.5 percent in 2018. It’s the same as in 2017, but better than the 2.1% growth in 2016. The modest economic improvement could temper the pace of commercial real estate (CRE) transaction activity.
Improving labor markets and household wealth will boost consumer confidence. The U-5 unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached is expected to drop under 5 percent. The employment-to-population ratio is projected to peak in 2018, as retiring Baby Boomers may reduce the share of employed.

REGULATORY OUTLOOK: Greater compliance means greater cost

Increased compliance and administration costs will result from the new accounting standards on lease accounting and revenue recognition that will primarily impact real estate investment trusts (REITs) and engineering and construction (E&C) companies.
Risk retention rules will lower issuance of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). We are also likely to see a reduction in capital availability in secondary and tertiary markets.
The Protecting Americans from Tax Hikes (PATH) Act of 2015 will ease REIT tax provisions and R&D tax credits for E&C companies, while increasing the flexibility to invest in startups for R&D experimentation. However, corporate tax reforms will reduce flexibility for corporations to spin off real estate assets into REIT structures.

DISRUPTIVE TRENDS: These factors are reshaping the face of CRE

Collaboration and Sharing.These sound like two positive trends, right? They certainly are for startups who utilize new platforms and business models like Airbnb or WeWork to reduce their real estate overhead. However, this type of collaboration and sharing of space is disrupting the way organizations lease and use commercial real estate space for their businesses. Traditional CRE companies will need to rethink their approach toward space design, lease administration, and lease duration in order to compete.
CRE data is becoming more ubiquitous and transparent thanks to technological advancements. The traditional brokerage model is being threatened by the increasing ease and efficiency of online leasing. Traditional brokers will need to diversify their services to include consulting and collaboration.
A growing demand for mixed-use developments as consumers prefer to “live, work and play” in proximity. This demand is the result of a shortage of workers with strong STEM skills, rising urbanization and Millennials’ preference for an open and flexible work culture. Companies trying to compete for this type of talent should choose office locations in areas that cater to the living and working environments preferred by their ideal candidates.
Rising demand for fast and convenient online retailing is disrupting the retail and industrial markets. Innovations in speed and mode of delivery (such as same-day delivery and e-lockers) will decrease the demand for large retail and industrial spaces. This trend will also cause a blurring of the lines between these two properties. For example, some retail space could double as fulfillment centers. To stay afloat, retailers will need to try different store formats to appeal to the consumer, while industrial properties should focus on smaller, more flexible spaces located near cities.
A change in how we get around will also change how we use real estate. With each passing year, more and more people rely upon “pay-per-use” vehicles and rideshare platforms like Zipcar, Uber and Lyft. We also get closer to self-driving vehicles. This major disruption to the entire mobility ecosystem will result in fewer people owning and driving their own vehicles, especially in urban areas. This will free up large parking spaces in prime locations that can be put to different uses. Real estate companies should begin to explore ways to reduce and repurpose parking space as a means to generate more income.

Over the course of the next 12 months, the U.S. commercial and residential real estate industry can expect to be hit with various changes and challenges. Some of these changes may have a favorable impact, while others could impose some serious setbacks. For real estate businesses to gain a competitive advantage and drive top- and bottom-line growth in 2018, they should take note of these emerging trends and work on developing a strategy now to react to the changing market, when the time comes.

What real estate trend do you think will have the most significant impact on the United States in 2018? Share your insights by leaving a comment below!

[Online Resources] Real Estate, 2017, 2018, buyers agent, central pennsylvania, commercial, demand, Economy, growth, industry, Mike Kushner, Omni Realty, prediction, regulation, residential, tenant representative, trends, united states

How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate.

Tenant-only broker representation is quickly growing in popularity and moving into the mainstream of real estate. Now more than ever, people looking for space realize they need a broker to solely represent their interests. It doesn’t take much more proof than to examine the success of the two premier exclusive tenant rep firms that are now part of multi-billion dollar companies. The Staubach Company, founded by Roger Staubach who pioneered the specialty of tenant representation,was acquired by Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and did $6 billion in revenue in 2015.

Studley, another firm offering exclusive tenant representation, was acquired by Savills, a global real estate powerhouse that did £1,283.5 million in revenue in 2015. If this trend continues, and I expect it will, other brokerage firms will need to adjust their practices to provide what clients want – fair and exclusive representation. Here is how I predict tenant representation to shape the future of real estate.

Technology will change the role of a tenant representative, but not replace it.

With technology making it easier than ever for potential tenants and buyers to find available properties, the future role of a tenant representative will be less about helping someone find space. Rather, tenant representatives will be sought out to provide advice, negotiate and exclusively represent the interests of the tenant/buyer.

Successful tenant representatives will use technology to streamline and automate the ways in which they research properties. This will allow them more time to reinvest in providing clients with their expertise and non-conflicting representation.

Large brokerage firms will need to “pick a side.”

In November 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that a listing broker had a fiduciary responsibility to both the buyer and the seller in a “dual agency” transaction. This case dealt with the 2007 sale of a Los Angeles home that was marketed as 15,000 square feet, but in reality was 11,000 square feet. The buyer reasonably felt like the brokerage company had pulled a fast one on him, especially since the house was both listed and sold by Coldwell Banker.

This court decision has potentially far-reaching impact on how commercial and residential real estate brokerages do business. While some may be able to continue doing business as usual and make their disclosures a little more apparent, the large brokerage firms may find it more difficult to do that and still be able to adequately represent both sides of a transaction. Essentially, large brokerage firms will need to pick a side. Will they represent the buyers or the sellers?

I predict we will see more real estate brokers choose to exclusively represent one side or the other so that they don’t risk the appearance of (or real) conflict of interest that just might result in a costly court battle.

Clients will get smart about seeking out exclusive representation.

Potential buyers and tenants are getting smarter about bringing their own representation to the table. Because of recent news stories and court cases, like the one mentioned above, light is finally being shed on the questionable practices of brokerage firms that represent both sides of a real estate deal. In nearly any other industry, this conflict of interest would never fly. Finally, real estate is catching up and buyers and tenants are seeking out exclusive representation to ensure a fair deal.

For many reasons, the growth in tenant-only broker representation is a good thing. It means tenants and buyers are getting equal representation in real estate transactions. It means companies are recognizing the conflict of interest in representing both sides and making changes to offer better transparency and disclosure clients. Finally, the growth in tenant-only broker representation means real estate professionals can and should specialize. People don’t want a Jack of All Trades, they want an expert who exclusively represents one side of a deal.

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

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