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How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

How Tenant-Only Broker Representation Will Shape the Future of Real Estate.

Tenant-only broker representation is quickly growing in popularity and moving into the mainstream of real estate. Now more than ever, people looking for space realize they need a broker to solely represent their interests. It doesn’t take much more proof than to examine the success of the two premier exclusive tenant rep firms that are now part of multi-billion dollar companies. The Staubach Company, founded by Roger Staubach who pioneered the specialty of tenant representation,was acquired by Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) and did $6 billion in revenue in 2015.

Studley, another firm offering exclusive tenant representation, was acquired by Savills, a global real estate powerhouse that did £1,283.5 million in revenue in 2015. If this trend continues, and I expect it will, other brokerage firms will need to adjust their practices to provide what clients want – fair and exclusive representation. Here is how I predict tenant representation to shape the future of real estate.

Technology will change the role of a tenant representative, but not replace it.

With technology making it easier than ever for potential tenants and buyers to find available properties, the future role of a tenant representative will be less about helping someone find space. Rather, tenant representatives will be sought out to provide advice, negotiate and exclusively represent the interests of the tenant/buyer.

Successful tenant representatives will use technology to streamline and automate the ways in which they research properties. This will allow them more time to reinvest in providing clients with their expertise and non-conflicting representation.

Large brokerage firms will need to “pick a side.”

In November 2016, the California Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling that a listing broker had a fiduciary responsibility to both the buyer and the seller in a “dual agency” transaction. This case dealt with the 2007 sale of a Los Angeles home that was marketed as 15,000 square feet, but in reality was 11,000 square feet. The buyer reasonably felt like the brokerage company had pulled a fast one on him, especially since the house was both listed and sold by Coldwell Banker.

This court decision has potentially far-reaching impact on how commercial and residential real estate brokerages do business. While some may be able to continue doing business as usual and make their disclosures a little more apparent, the large brokerage firms may find it more difficult to do that and still be able to adequately represent both sides of a transaction. Essentially, large brokerage firms will need to pick a side. Will they represent the buyers or the sellers?

I predict we will see more real estate brokers choose to exclusively represent one side or the other so that they don’t risk the appearance of (or real) conflict of interest that just might result in a costly court battle.

Clients will get smart about seeking out exclusive representation.

Potential buyers and tenants are getting smarter about bringing their own representation to the table. Because of recent news stories and court cases, like the one mentioned above, light is finally being shed on the questionable practices of brokerage firms that represent both sides of a real estate deal. In nearly any other industry, this conflict of interest would never fly. Finally, real estate is catching up and buyers and tenants are seeking out exclusive representation to ensure a fair deal.

For many reasons, the growth in tenant-only broker representation is a good thing. It means tenants and buyers are getting equal representation in real estate transactions. It means companies are recognizing the conflict of interest in representing both sides and making changes to offer better transparency and disclosure clients. Finally, the growth in tenant-only broker representation means real estate professionals can and should specialize. People don’t want a Jack of All Trades, they want an expert who exclusively represents one side of a deal.

Note: This article was originally published by www.DukeLong.com. Click here to read the original version.

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Robust Growth Predicted in 2016 for Central PA Industrial Real Estate Market

Posted on January 8, 2016 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Are you ready to start off 2016 with some good news? The industrial real estate market in Central Pennsylvania is riding a wave of robust economic growth and all signs point to a continuing boom that could be the greatest in the sector’s history!

Looking at the fourth quarter data, our latest research confirms that the industrial sector of the local real estate market has now absorbed over 8.5 million square feet of warehouse space since first quarter 2015. With virtually every industrial sector experiencing increased demand—from data processing hubs to distribution space and manufacturing centers—the four quarters of 2015 saw more demand for industrial space than compared to the last 20 years.

What exactly is driving this demand and what other trends can we expect to result from this economic growth? Let’s take a look!

Three factors driving this high level of industrial demand:

Employment: Across the nation, the real GDP has been expanding at a better than 4% growth rate since April of 2014 (nearly 150 bps higher than the historical norm). The faster rate of growth has triggered a burst of new hiring across nearly all job sectors and geographies. The U.S. economy created 2.9 million net new nonfarm jobs in 2014, and more specifically, industrial employment grew by 442,000 net new payrolls in 2014 – the most industrial-related job growth in 17 years.

Looking specifically at Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, the unemployment rate is 3.5 percent as of November 2015 and the lowest it has been in recent months. We also closed the year with 294,626 nonfarm jobs which is nearly 7,500 more jobs than last year at this time and among the highest we have seen throughout 2015.

Manufacturing: Adding to the good news is the ISM Manufacturing Index, which has been in solid expansion mode for 25 consecutive quarters. Such robust trends have led to a 5.2% year-over-year increase (nationally) in industrial production—a rate of growth that went unmatched throughout the 2000’s.

Again looking locally, Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, Lancaster MSA and York-Hanover MSA each rank among the top 10 regions in the state for manufacturing jobs. Combined, these areas (that correlate with CoStar’s Central PA submarket) employ a total 89,356 people in this industry alone, as of second quarter 2015. Manufacturing jobs continue to trend upward after recovering from a major dip in 2010.

Oil Prices: The past six months of continually falling oil prices have given the bulk of the U.S. economy an additional boost and will provide another tailwind for growth moving forward. Since June of 2014, crude oil prices (WTI) have declined more than 50%, making the national average gas price $2.17 per gallon as of mid-January, 2015. Most consumers and businesses are responding favorably to the drop in energy prices, and consumer spending has ramped up for vehicle sales, durable goods, building materials, clothing and accessories, food and beverage, etc.

In the Harrisburg-Carlisle MSA, oil prices are down about 18.6 percent from last winter, beating the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s prediction of a 15 percent drop this winter. The average for heating oil was $2.999 on Dec. 1, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with $3.683 a year ago. Local Marcellus Shale production has helped keep oil prices low while also adding jobs to the economy.

Final Takeaways

All of these factors bode well for industrial real estate, even as the rising value of the dollar and weakening economic conditions abroad present headwinds for the year ahead.

Additionally, new construction activity is showing no signs of slowing as there is currently 3.5 million square feet under construction in the Central Pennsylvania Submarket, of which 98% is being constructed on spec. The majority of new spec inventory is expected to deliver in the first quarter of 2016 and will push the overall vacancy rate northward for the market.

Despite the large amount of spec space coming online next quarter, tenant demand has been particularly strong in new inventory constructed over the past two years, evidenced by the market’s low vacancy and strong positive absorption.

The new space that has come into the market at the end of 2015 should continue this trend and generate a significant amount of activity in the near-term.

Which of the market factors discussed do you believe will be most powerful in 2016 and beyond? Join in the conversation by commenting below!

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How Will New Office Space Construction in Central PA Impact the Market?

Posted on November 18, 2015 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

business, building, paperwork and people concept - happy builder in hardhat with clipboard and pencil over group of builders at construction site

Photo Credit: Dollar Photo Club

2015 has brought a boost in office space construction to Central Pennsylvania and there is even more space to come! While this may be exciting news for businesses looking to expand into the local market, we need to watch this trend closely and cautiously because the potential impact may not be so favorable for landlords and sellers of commercial office space.

The good news is we have four projects under construction that will deliver more than 400,000 square-feet to the market within the coming year, with a majority of this space already preleased. However, this promising news for the market is tempered by the fact that many tenants will vacate other office space nearby to occupy these newly constructed office buildings.

Once delivered, this square footage will most certainly impact net absorption and vacancy rates in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. What can we do to prepare and attempt to reduce any negative impact? Let’s first take a look at what’s going on in the market and then analyze what will likely result from these trends.

Third Quarter 2015: Select Top Under Construction Properties

Currently four different commercial office properties are under construction in the Central Pennsylvania submarket. The Cornwall Health Center, located in Harrisburg Area East, broke ground in fourth quarter 2014 and is scheduled to be delivered in fourth quarter 2015. It has an RBA of 54,234 square-feet and is 100% preleased. The TecPort Business Campus – Building A broke ground this quarter and is scheduled to be delivered in third quarter 2016. It has an RBA of 7,590 square-feet. It is not preleased and its quoted rental rate is listed as negotiable.

Additionally, a Class A office space project is under construction at the intersection of Carlisle Pike and Hogestown Road. The two buildings that make up this project have a combined 259,000 square-feet of space are expected to be completed in spring 2016. Finally, there is Class B office space at 1250 Camp Hill Bypass that is under construction. Its 82,000 square-feet of space is 100% preleased.

Third Quarter 2015 Rental Rates & Vacancy

This quarter, rental rates rose to $17.14 per square-foot. This is the highest rate we have seen since prior to 2011. The vacancy rate decreased from 7.8% to 7.5%. The vacant square-footage also decreased from 4,120,331 square-feet to 3,962,599 square-feet.

Third Quarter 2015 Absorption and Demand

The total RBA in Q3 2015 increased to 52,581,663 square-feet. Net absorption also experienced a substantial increase, more than tripling last quarter’s 50,466 square-feet to the 190,232 square-feet that closed out third quarter 2015. But take note, both net absorption and vacancy rates will soon be greatly impacted by the 400,000+ square-feet that will be delivered to the market in the next year!

Future Trends and Their Impact

New construction certainly has its benefits, and for the time being, the Central Pennsylvania office submarket is receiving a positive boost from the activity. But as this new square-footage is delivered in the next 12 months, causing businesses to vacate other space within the region, we can expect to see some new trends emerge.

Let’s take a look at a highlight of predictions we expect to see in the coming quarters:

Inconsistent Net Absorption: The only real pattern in net absorption of office space over the last 15 quarters has been inconsistency. Year-to-date for 2015 we are at 630,738 square-feet; 2014 totaled negative 311,827 square-feet; 2013 was 909,658 square-feet; and 2012 was negative 226,424 square-feet.
Increased Vacancy Rate: The addition of 340,000 square-feet of new construction in the Harrisburg West market that is being occupied by Hewlett-Packard (HP) and Deloitte will result in an increased vacancy rate in 2016 due to the occupants relocating from existing space. In addition, the Walgreens- Rite Aid merger will contribute to the market’s increased vacant space as the two companies integrate corporate back-office functions.
Decreased Employee Square-Footage: Square-feet per employee have been in a long term decline and will continue on this trend. E-commerce, telecommuting, and the desire for open and collaborative work spaces are squeezing the office space sector given that square footage per office employee is diminishing.
Increased Demand for Medical Office Space: The one bright spot in the office market segment is the increasing demand for medical office space. Orthopedic Associates of Lancaster is constructing a 73,529 square foot facility in North Cornwall Township. Good Samaritan Hospital is opening a new 22,000 square foot center at 840 Tuck Street in Lebanon. And Pinnacle Health is opening an 80,000 square foot Advanced Care Center in a former retail shopping center located at 1251 East Main Street in Annville.

These predictions are not going to be music to the ears of landlords and sellers, but this market provides some prime opportunities for new and growing businesses to expand within Central Pennsylvania. Increasing vacancy rates and inconsistent net absorption creates a competitive market in which the buyer or renter has the upper-hand. So businesses take note. If you were thinking of moving to or expanding within Central Pennsylvania, 2016 is the prime time to do so!

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Central PA’s Demand for Rental Units is Booming: What this Means for Economic Growth

Posted on July 30, 2015 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was originally published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this summer the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission (representing Cumberland, Dauphin and Perry counties) met to discuss current and future socio-economic trends that will influence land-use decisions and related impacts.

The data and statistics shared provided insight into some powerful trends that are emerging in the local real estate market. Based upon the growing population of both Baby Boomers and Millennials that will continue to make up the majority of our population in the Harrisburg Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) well into the future, these generations are going to have a profound impact on our economy.

While you might think the demographics of these generations would both want a large home in the suburbs, you would be mistaken. Rather, for various reasons, both Baby Boomers and Millennials are anticipated to drive the demand for rental units. Let’s now take a closer look at what exactly is causing this trend and the implications it will have on local economic growth.

The Cause: What’s fueling this trend?

According to the information shared by the Tri-County Regional Planning Commission, this year, Millennials (age 15-34) will make up one-third of all adults in the United States and will finally outnumber Baby Boomers. While the ultimate goal for these Millennials, especially ones who have started a family, is to move into the suburbs, the majority of this generation doesn’t yet have the savings they need for a down payment on a home, thus the necessity of renting. Additionally, more than half of millennials are likely to move in the next five years, making renting housing even more of a convenient and desirable option.

Now let’s take a look at why Baby Boomers are also fueling the demand for rental units. Nationally, one in five people are expected to be over the age 65 by 2030. Older Empty Nesters (age 65-74) are the fastest growing segment of the population in Harrisburg MSA. While this reflects a growing aging population, Baby Boomers are not yet ready to slow down. They are mobile, social and want to remain as active and independent as they can. Rather than being strapped down by caring for a home that is too large for their empty nest, Baby Boomers are moving into luxury rental units that give them ultimate flexibility, freedom and a close-knit community.

The Effect: What does this means for economic growth?

Retiring Boomers will Hurt Consumer Spending and Economic Growth

Baby Boomers are currently our most affluent generation and will be responsible for the largest transfer of wealth over the next 30 years. With that said, Baby Boomers will actually hurt economic growth by not spending their money on things like housing, insurance, appliances and apparel. Rather, they prefer to spend their income on entertainment, travel and social experiences. To further illustrate this point, in Harrisburg MSA, the average household expenditures by 2015 show people spending as much on entertainment as they do housing.

Such spending habits again strengthen the demand for rental units as they require less money and maintenance than owning a large, single-family home. As a result, we can expect rental prices to remain competitive, and while they may rise slightly in response to demand, they will remain reasonable to both Baby Boomers and Millennials relative to income and in comparison to the cost of owning a home.

As for rental vacancy rates, these are expected to remain low through 2019. This is great news for owners of rental properties and developers who are looking to expand into this area. It’s a safe bet that a growing number of renters will be in the market for housing that will allow them to live life well, while still conserving money for whatever their priorities may be.

How Central PA can best harness this economic growth

Central Pennsylvania would be smart to take note of this important trend. If you identify with either Baby Boomers or Millennials, know that renting may be a viable option for you at this point in your life. With new projects on the rise, you are likely to find some very nice accommodations at competitive prices that are far less than the cost of a mortgage. This will allow you to channel your wealth into saving for a future home of your dreams, or spending it on life experiences you’ve been waiting until retirement to enjoy.

For businesses, real estate brokers and developers, this is also a powerful trend that can impact your industry. Get to know the Baby Boomers and Millennials – their habits, preferences, indulgences and priorities. Appealing to these growing generations will ensure your business will also continue to grow well into the future.

Click here to read the original article published by the Central Penn Business Journal.

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