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Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate – Part II

Posted on September 6, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

In Part I of the “Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate” we covered topics 1-5 of the top issues we expect to have a lasting and immediate impact on real estate here in Central Pennsylvania and across the United States. If you missed it, start here!

Keep reading if you’re ready to dive deeper into issues #6-10 as we continue down the list of the most pertinent topics to real estate as they apply to various sectors.

#6 Housing Supply and Affordability

Decades of underinvestment and underbuilding have created a shortage of housing in America that is more dire than previously expected and will require a concerted, long-term nationwide commitment to overcome. As it stands, there are three things that most can agree on in the current housing market: 1) there is a tremendous need for affordable housing; 2) there continues to be a sentiment of a “Not in My Back Yard” mentality; and 3) there’s an ongoing supply deficit of market-rate housing.

A severe lack of new construction and prolonged underinvestment has led to an acute shortage of available housing to the detriment of the economy and certain segments of the public. This trend affects every region of the country, creating an “underbuilding gap” of 5.5 to 6.8 million housing units since 2001.

#7 Political Polarization

Simply put, we are squandering resources as we try to address problems that arise from the partisan divide, rather than problems confronting us as common issues. This hinders our productivity and therefore the nation’s economic strength. And the real estate industry’s well-being is a function of our economic growth. The economy and the real estate industry would be far healthier, as would American society, if the pattern of party-line voting in the halls of Congress could be transcended in favor of something very traditional: the defining of politics as the art of compromise.

#8 Economic Structural Change

What we’re seeing is many investors increasing their focus on property management aimed at retaining tenants and defending cash flow, while selectively seeking ‘value-add’ properties amenable to active asset management. The thinking is “focus on what you can control” during this period where macro-level uncertainty is the governing headwind at the policy level in terms of the structural problems in this economy. This is a significant economic structural change. Additionally, Cap rates ranging, on average, from 5% for apartments to 6.6% for offices are keeping pricing rich compared with the risk inherent in that underwriting uncertainty.

#9 Adaptive Reuse Reinvented

Adaptive reuse is not a new terminology but since COVID-19 it’s evolved into a re-examination of our suburban communities to reposition them for transformation before the opportunity for change passes them over. The trend we see now, and one that stands to have a large impact on commercial real estate is addressing the challenge of what to do with hundreds of defunct suburban malls and thousands of empty Big-Box retail stores that are surrounded by desirable and affordable neighborhoods. This makes it to the Top #10 list for four main reasons:

Reconnecting our communities from what the Interstate Highway system divided from the 1950s to the 1980s
Preventing blight that developed in our dense urban cities from flowing to the suburbs and secondary MSAs
Restoring much-needed greenspace to our neighborhoods and cities that can germinate interaction of diverse demographic groups
Promoting good ESG and diversity, equity, and inclusion policies

#10 Bifurcation of Capital Markets

Looking back over the last year and a half, what becomes clear is how different the market-changing event of COVID-19 was compared to prior market corrections. While transaction volume is slowly recovering, it’s still well below pre-COVID levels. Furthermore, the market has not seen the volume of expected distress sales, but there is plenty of capital ready to deploy! As we look to the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, performance will dictate the amount of distress and losses, and risk management should dictate markets, property types, leverage, loan structure, and pricing for mortgage debt. The next year should also tell us if commercial real estate debt was too rich and whether perceived risk underestimated where pricing should have been.

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Among issues 6-10, which one do you believe will last the longest or have the greatest impact? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

And be sure to visit Part I to learn about issues #1-#5!

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Top 10 Issues Affecting Real Estate – Part I

Posted on August 23, 2021 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Trends No Comments

We live in a rapidly changing world, and such changes impact every person, place, and industry either directly or indirectly. First, this was due to rapidly changing technology, which still has a profound impact on our daily lives. We live in a time where technology is changing more in a few months than it previously would in years or decades. This has led to great advancements, life-saving solutions, and modern conveniences, unlike anything the generations before us could imagine.

But in the shadows of the sudden onset of a global pandemic, some changes that have taken place recently were not so helpful or welcoming. Every business has felt the blow of COVID-19, and some did not survive the punch. For those who were able to adapt and survive, changes had to take place. Looking at commercial real estate, the most significant changes can be grouped into 10 core issues. Let’s take a look at the first five issues that have already and will continue to affect the real estate market for years to come.

#1 Remote and Flexible Work Environments

Over the summer, businesses began to return to in-person work environments, some partially and others fully. As of mid-June, it was estimated that 32% of United States businesses had reopened their physical office locations and employees were returning to (somewhat) normal work schedules. Nevertheless, commercial properties need to be prepared for lasting changes as the result, not only of this global pandemic but other factors that had been on the rise for quite some time.

Remote working, the acceleration of internet retail, and the demand for larger and more natural spaces and other pandemic-era behaviors have created the “perfect storm” to drive significant change in remote work and mobility in commercial real estate. One of the greatest lessons learned during COVID is the escalating demand for more flexible, easily adaptable, and sharable spaces and CRE professionals need to be prepared to make their spaces more conducive in order to meet these demands and remain competitive.

#2 Technology Acceleration and Innovation

Technology continues to hold its place high on this top 10 list, but this year for a slightly different reason. In the wake of COVID-19, more people than ever before had to rapidly adapt and accept technology (particularly those who allowed for remote interactions with the world) as a way of life. The question before us now is what new habits have formed as such, and how many people will revert to “old tech” ways of doing things. Our prediction is that a lot of the new technology people had been trained to use over the last 18 months will “stick” and as a result, there is a higher comfort level – especially among older generations – with using remote technologies to live, work, and entertain.

For commercial real estate, the biggest impact can be seen in cybersecurity, supply chain logistics, and price instability. None of these are new concepts, but in a span of months if not weeks in some cases, the world saw high profile hacks, shortages of resources like microchips, lumber and labor, and rising prices across the board. The accelerated upgrade of connectivity, security, and hosted processes mean utilization is being maximized and any place is now a potential workplace. This creates new pools of vacancy and pools of availability enabled by technology.

#3 Environmental, Social, and Governance Initiatives

Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) programs in real estate continue to be one of the best ways to reduce carbon emissions, accrete value, and demonstrate reputational value in the market. This was greatly accelerated during the onset of COVID-19. At the same time, workforce development, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion initiatives, and recognition of the importance of health and wellness in commercial real estate are setting new expectations for building operations and how to engage stakeholders and the communities in which real estate owners and users invest.

The expertise, creativity, and innovation that the real estate (and finance) industry is well known for are highly valuable for assessing and mitigating risk and creating value for investors, occupants, and the capital markets that serve them. The biggest shift to note for this trend is an increased value that real estate professionals can bring to other markets that are creating and implementing ESG programs in an effort to be socially responsible and attract top talent.

#4 Logistics

Simply put, logistics is what makes our economy “work.” It’s at the epicenter of every product-based service and that has never felt more evident than during COVID-19 when so many goods were delayed across the globe, and even domestically. The supply-chain funnel is still recovering as we continue to experience shortages and delays. Logistics post-COVID-19 will disrupt commercial real estate models for years to come. We can expect disruption in commercial real estate capital allocation, with more funding to industrial property and less to retail. There will also be less dependency on physical stores and more on modern eCommerce warehouses that will be increasingly automated with less reliance on labor. The biggest takeaway for commercial real estate professionals is to keep a keen eye on the changing logistical strategies and solutions of the economy. As these cause shifts in the market, the demand for CRE will also shift. Where one sector will turn down, another will rise. We can expect the waves of change to continue to roll in, impacting real estate for years to come in big and permanent ways.

#5 Infrastructure: New Imperatives Emerge

Similar to issue #4, it takes infrastructure to support logistics. The government has turned a keen eye to allocating funding and initiatives to support improved roads, bridges, airports, ports, mass transit, and other traditional infrastructure needs. With billions of dollars in proposed funding, many new imperatives to improve our nation’s infrastructure have emerged. This includes the expansion of broadband, last-mile deliveries to homes and businesses, automation and optimization of systems, and an increased focus on renewables. This is a huge issue to tackle and it seems we’re falling behind the clock with every passing second.

To put this issue into perspective, the American Society of Civil Engineers gives U.S. infrastructure a score of C-, classifying it as “poor” and “at risk,” while the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report ranks the U.S. 13th in the world. If the American economy is to remain top tier, we need to invest aggressively and strategically in the future of our infrastructure to keep up with the competition and demand. The funding coming in from Capitol Hill attempts to do this, but the question remains whether it will come quickly enough. Change and improvements take time, even more so when we’re talking about major infrastructure improvements. The United States is racing the rapid advancements of technology and the mindset of an “I want it now” world.

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Among these top 5 issues, which one do you believe will last the longest or have the greatest impact? Start a conversation by leaving a comment below!

And stay tuned for Part II of this topic where we dive deeper into issues #6-10!

What Does ‘Back to Business’ Look Like Post-COVID? – Part II

Posted on July 13, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

This is Part II in a two-part series where we look at how commercial spaces must adapt and implement new policies to adhere to social distancing guidelines. We interviewed Matt Luttrell, Partner at ThYNK Design LLC for his input on this timely and important topic. In Part I we focused on the issue of square-feet per person requirements in buildings and how this will limit capacity. We also discussed how HVAC systems might be used to create fresh air and healthier work environments. Now, we’re going to shift our focus to other tools and tactics commercial spaces can use to keep the spread of COVID-19 down. Keep reading to find out what these are.

Omni: Aside from greatly adjusting the layout according to social distancing guidelines of commercial spaces, what other changes or precautions could be taken to adhere to revised distancing guidelines in a more efficient and effective manner?

ML: When possible, the ability to predict and schedule activities and users can be a great tool for optimizing the use of space. In K-12 educational environments, the circulation of students and faculty is highly planned and will become even more necessary to ensure that occupant use and density do not overwhelm resources and create unhealthy situations. Likewise, it appears that restaurants will need to enhance and promote reservation systems to manage seating and staff while using delivering and curb-side services for extended patron options. More movie theaters will use on-line reservations and pre-selection of seats. These commonplace practices can have long-term as well as short term benefits and will most likely become more prevalent in our daily experiences.

Omni: You talk about the importance of scheduling as a way for schools and businesses to manage capacity and social distancing. But what about when this is not an option?

ML: When scheduling or reservations are not an option, such as in retail or grocery store settings, human or automated occupancy counters are being used to limit the number of users at any given time. Employing staff to do this can be quite costly, and if we’re honest, not a desirable job. For automated options, there are many venders, such as Sensource, that provide hardware and software that can easily be set up and adapted to an organization or business’s specific needs.

Omni: Beyond limiting capacity in a space, what other precautions can businesses take?

ML: Thermal scanning of customers or guests determines if individuals have an elevated body temperature so that buildings can prevent a person showing symptoms from entering. This is another effective mechanism for controlling the spread of virus. There are readily available systems for small businesses that range from a $100 handheld scanner for checking individual temperatures to group and line screening systems for approximately $5,000. TEquipment.net provides an array of options for consideration.

Additionally, masks seem to be one of the more accessible and more effective tools for moving forward. While they are not 100% effective, it appears that they may significantly reduce transmission via air, which seems to be the primary source. No one seems to want to quantify how effective masks are, but based on common sense, the practice appears warranted. Given the ease, minimal costs, and purported effectiveness, masks seem to be the most readily available option for reopening our society without inundating our current resources.

No system is fail-proof, but simplicity and redundancy are always good principles when evaluating options.

Omni: In your opinion, can common areas like waiting rooms, break rooms, or lobbies realistically adhere to new CDC social distancing guidelines?

ML: These spaces are pinch points within every building. While they are designed to accommodate the building’s occupancy load, they are not intended to minimize interactions; they are generally shared spaces designed for efficiency and ease of use. Accordingly, each type of space has its challenges and should be evaluated for options, but these spaces are inherent barriers without actively implementing changes to a buildings configuration and/or user actions.

Reconfiguration can be a costly endeavor, especially if it is a short-term solution. Repurposing spaces may be a solution that allows for relief. Several areas traditionally found in a building, such as conference rooms and breakrooms, can be repurposed to address immediate needs. Breakrooms may be better utilized as an office or workspace for a limited number of employees, while employees are required to eat at their desks. Conference rooms could also become workspaces, or often, these rooms are located close to or adjoin lobbies/ waiting rooms and can become an extension of the room. These are potential short-term solutions and should involve an evaluation of HVAC, lighting, power, egress, and other potential code implications.

Omni Realty Group thanks Matt Luttrell for sharing this valuable insight to help us to better understand the challenges many business owners face when it comes to renovating and recreating commercial real estate space to accommodate social distancing and sanitization both now, and for what many feel will be long into the future. If you missed Part I of this two-part series, be sure to check it out here.

Do you own or work in a commercial space – office, retail, or industrial? What do you see being the biggest challenge related to COVID-19 required changes? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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What Does ‘Back to Business’ Look Like Post-COVID? – Part I

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market, Retail No Comments

Based on the continually evolving data and recommendations, the efforts to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 while pursuing a more normalized personal and professional life has focused on separation, isolation, and decontamination. As things currently stand, it appears that the only potential remedy to return to a pre-COVID-19 environment is the development of a vaccine. In the meantime, business owners and professionals are faced with living with less than ideal situations. Some wish to persist with maximum isolation and separation; however, it appears that the majority have deemed the consequences of shutting down all interactions beyond a household as untenable, and have demanded that measures be developed to support an acceptable level of social and professional interaction. What is acceptable? Well, that is a matter of individual choice.

To help provide some insight on what options exist for businesses to re-open their doors to employees and the public we asked Matt Luttrell, Partner at ThYNK Design LLC, to weigh in. ThYNK Design, LLC is a modern architectural firm pursuing a better way to develop, deliver, and celebrate the immense value of good design. Given his experience and background, Matt shares some valuable information to help frame and evaluate some of the inherent issues in the built environment that conflict with the proposed social distancing guidelines. Here’s how he responded when Omni Realty Group asked him several key questions.

Omni: What industries are likely to be most impacted by the proposed revised building code distancing guidelines?

ML: The restaurant industry may face the greatest short-term and long-term challenges. The proposed social distancing guidelines directly conflict with historic planning principles as well as the industry’s business model. However, each restaurant, business, and building should be evaluated to determine what resources are available to develop an effective mitigation plan.

Omni: How will the introduction of new social distancing constraints impact the long-term viability of most existing buildings?

ML: With the recognition that the design and development of the built environment is in response to many considerations, including; user needs, business models, and building code requirements, the introduction of new constraints that directly conflict with established practices will challenge the long-term viability of most buildings. These challenges focus on developing an environment that effectively manages occupant density, frequency, and duration of interactions, surface contaminants, and air quality. To effectively manage these challenges, an inventory and understanding of the available resources and building configuration are required. These can include: building area, sizes of rooms, type, and capacity of HVAC system, operable windows, number of entry/ exit points from a space or building, quantity, and location of shared facilities (toilet rooms, break rooms, waiting areas) and flex spaces.

Each resource can impact the effectiveness of a mitigation plan and should be carefully considered, but the most significant challenge is how to overcome the area requirements per person. Expanding a building, reconfiguring interior spaces, and adding entry and exit points are not readily done. In addition to the expense, the required time frame for approvals and construction is prohibitive.

Omni: Can you provide more information to paint a picture of the potential magnitude of the problem you’re describing?

ML: The proposed social-distancing guidelines recommend a density of 1 person per 113 SF (area of circle with a 6′ radius) whereas standard planning practices include densities that are 2x to 10x higher.

Following are the maximum area allowances, per the 2015 International Building Code, for several of the more common functions included in buildings:

Assembly spaces:

-with concentrated chairs (lecture halls, waiting rooms, etc.):
- One occupant per 7 SF
-standing room (lobbies, areas holding events such as cocktail hours):
- One occupant per 5 SF
-unconcentrated chairs and tables (restaurants, breakrooms, open office)
- One occupant per 15 SF

Business areas: One occupant per 100 SF

Classroom: One occupant per 20 SF

Exercise rooms: One occupant per 50 SF

Retail: One occupant per 60 SF

Compared to the recommended 113 SF (area of a circle with a 6 radius) per occupant you begin to see the potential implications. As an example, a worst-case analysis would provide the following reductions:

Example 1: For a restaurant with a dining area design occupancy of 100 (15 SF per occupant) the occupancy would be potentially reduced to 13 occupants at 113 SF per occupant. This is a worst case and does not consider that you may have a family grouped so that they are separated from other family groupings.

Example 2: A classroom designed for 25 occupants could have a reduced occupancy of 5.

As indicated by these examples, if we want to remain economically viable, then social distancing cannot be the only criteria for determining the use of a space.

Omni: How do commercial HAVC systems currently play into the issue, whether standing to hurt or help air sanitization and circulation in shared commercial spaces?

ML: For most people, the quality of a HVAC system is based on the system’s ability to control the temperature of a space. Only in the relatively recent past (10-20 years) has the industry focused on delivering improved air quality, increased fresh air, controlled humidity, and energy conservation within the typical system. Each of these four items should be evaluated as a potential resource or barrier for developing a mitigation plan. In the current environment, an incorrect understanding or use could potentially have disastrous consequences and it is highly recommended that a contractor or engineer be consulted to determine the full capability of your system.

Omni: Could you give a bit deeper into the impact of air quality on comfort and health?

ML: Air quality may be one of the more challenging issues when it comes to controlling a virus. One of the more prevalent components for managing air quality is the filter. The systems air-filter is rated according to the level of filtration needed/ desired for a given environment. According to Grainger.com, “What Is MERV Rating? Air Filter Rating Chart,” most commercial and residential buildings will have filters that range from a MERV 5 to MERV 12. A MERV 5 rating filters particles down to a 10.0 micron level and a 12 filters down to 1.0 micron level. A MERV 12 or higher, which is not very common outside of critical healthcare and clean-room environments, effectively filters pollen, dust mites, mold, and even cement dust.

However, according to various publications, the coronavirus average size is 0.125 microns. While this is substantially smaller than the particles that are filtered, it does not mean that these particles freely pass. This is due to a variety of reasons, but one of them has to do with humidity. Dry air allows particles to float freely/ unattached, while humid air promotes particles binding together. The larger particles are more readily filtered or trapped. A similar concept applies to our lungs. When we breathe air that is too dry it reduces the amount of mucus within our bodies; thus, part of our human filtration system is compromised.

Omni: Is there any research to back this up?

ML: A study conducted in Sydney, Australia indicates that the reduced humidity conditions associated with winter weather can lead to an increase in COVID-19 cases. The researchers identified that a 1% decrease in humidity could lead to a 6% increase in cases. So, what is the ideal relative humidity? In this case, it appears that the industry recommended RH of 40% to 60% corresponds with the current recommendations for mitigating COVID-19. Too little humidity and the filtration system is compromised, too much humidity and mold growth is supported.

Omni: So then, how is indoor humidity controlled?

ML: A/C systems are primarily designed for thermal control. Thus, most A/C systems control humidity by circulating warm, moist air over cold coils, which leads to condensation, which is collected and drained away. The key here is ensuring that the AC cycles the proper amount of time to allow the warm air to be adequately circulated over the coils and the moisture removed. This process relies on the A/C unit being correctly sized. This involves a variety of factors, including the number of people in a facility.

In essence, if a system is sized to provide cooling for 100 people, it accounts for the amount of energy/ heat and moisture generated by 100 people. Accordingly, it will work to get the temperature where it needs to be while accounting for the amount of humidity that needs to be removed. If the occupant load is reduced to 50, then the system is effectively oversized and will get the air to the desired temperature before it has a chance to remove the humidity. This leads to RH levels that can far exceed the recommended upper level of 60%.

Omni: What connection do you see between fresh air and healthier work spaces?

ML: Fresh air, or air that is not recycled, has become an integral component in the development of an HVAC system that supports overall occupant health. Sick building syndrome (SBS) developed following efforts to close-up buildings to establish greater energy efficiency, and a quick search will indicate that the SBS symptoms are frighteningly similar to COVID-19. The introduction of fresh air into a HVAC system does two things: it dilutes the air and pollutants, and it helps to pressurize a building. Diluting air is readily understood, but proper pressurization is equally as important. If a building is not properly pressurized, then air can start to stratify and pockets of dead-air form. This can allow areas of a building or room to be filled with contaminated air that can promote the spread of a virus. Most new systems include fresh air as required by the building code, but many older systems do not. A professional should be consulted to determine if your system incorporates fresh air or if it can be modified to do so. Simply put, a properly sized HVAC system that incorporates fresh air is a critical component in supporting occupant health.

As we move forward in this new environment, we seem to come across unforeseen challenges every day. But the response to all challenges is the same: assess, move-forward, reassess, move-forward… The one certainty is that we must be persistent in creatively evaluating the situation and developing solutions based on available resources. Stay tuned for Part II where Matt presents us with even more information on your topic!

Do you own or work in a commercial space – office, retail, or industrial? How do you feel like impact of COVID-19 will require changes be made to the configuration and functionality of your space? Please offer your comments or experiences in the comment section below.

COVID-19 and the Economy: Changes Coming to Commercial Real Estate

Posted on March 27, 2020 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

No matter where you go to consume news, you will be bombarded by anything and everything related to COVID-19. The impact of this novel virus on our world is impossible to fully understand or appreciate at this time. The term “unchartered water” is being used quite frequently and it couldn’t be more accurate.

Every industry is wondering how this will impact their business, both immediately and long-term. The simple truth is that no one really knows right now. The best we can do is look to history to see how the world has reacted to similar pandemics, economic crisis, and panic. Though the world has not seen a virus causing a global shut down like we are seeing with COVID-19, we can anticipate the significant changes we may expect to see take right here in Pennsylvania. Here’s how commercial real estate is getting pulled into the fold.

Economic Uncertainty. With so much uncertainty in the stock market these last few days, people get nervous. Talk to anyone working in the financial services industry, and he or she will tell you that most of their time right now is spent talking people off the ledge of making panicked decisions. And their fear is not unfounded. After all, trillions of dollars in paper wealth have essentially evaporated.

As people watch their diminishing 401K balances, they feel rightfully uncertain. And if such uncertainty causes consumers to hit the pause button on spending, a ripple effect is bound to take place. When attendees avoid concerts, sporting events, movies, or restaurants, businesses suffer a decline in sales. Operations who supply these enterprises, such as the trucking, food, linens, security, novelties industries then feel the pinch as the ripples become waves of lost revenue. How does this relate back to commercial real estate? All of these businesses rent or own commercial real estate, meaning CRE gets pulled into the downward spiral.

Supply chain disruption. Here are the facts (changing daily), steel production is down 90% in China. Auto sales in Asia is down 95%. One of the Port of LA’s largest exports is auto parts. Couple these factors with the typical container cancellations during the Chinese New Year and you create an immense lag in product delivery which will ripple out to impact just about every other industry imaginable.

Whole industries have come to a sudden halt. Hotels, restaurants, construction businesses, retail stores – and this is hardly scratching the surface of the businesses across the Commonwealth mandated to shutter their businesses for at least two weeks – likely more. The ripple effect this will have immediately and well into the future is near impossible to quantify. It’s not unlikely that some businesses may fold as a result. If such businesses owned or rented commercial real estate, this is space that will be vacated. Additionally, a lull in new construction will decrease the amount of new space delivered to the market at least through 2020.

Interest rates. There is much conversation and reason to believe that we will soon see more favorable interest rates, making commercial real estate financing more affordable. The reason is that mass stock market sell offs will generate proceeds which must be invested. Typically, a safe harbor for this cash is short term instruments such as Treasuries. However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt. On March 3rd, The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by ½ of one percent which was met with much applause. The truth is that this is irrelevant. The federal funds rate refers to the interest rate that banks charge other banks for lending them money from their reserve balances on an overnight basis. The hard truth is that the federal funds rate has no impact on ten-year treasury yields.

The Silver Lining – Despite the doom and gloom being predicted for many industries as the result of the spread of COVID-19, there are (at least) three reasons why commercial real estate should look to the silver lining in all of this. Here’s what they are.

#1. Some stock market investors fleeing the equity markets may choose to start investing in real estate. Why wouldn’t they invest in CRE? After the rapid downturn that’s transpired in the last few weeks, it only seems logical that some would say enough is enough I’m going to pull my money out of the stock market and invest it in a lower risk type of investment.

#2. Treasury rates have hit historic lows. On March 9th, the ten-year treasury bottomed out at 0.569%, rising to 0.981% by Friday, March 13. For comparison, a year ago, the ten-year treasury closed at 2.592% so the decline has been dramatic to state the obvious. Those of us who have debt, whether it is a home loan or loans on our rental properties, are going to benefit by refinancing debt with significantly lower interest rates.

#3. If there is increased demand for CRE and interest rates remain low, the logical result will be that capitalization rates will continue to compress even further than they are right now. This means that even if a real estate investor doesn’t refinance his rental properties, the value of his real estate will still go up as cap rates continue to compress. So bottom line is that those of us who have invested in commercial real estate will inadvertently benefit from this black swan event.

#4. It’s now a tenant’s market. The speed at which the market shifted from a landlord’s market to a tenant’s market can hardly be overstated. COVID-19 has effectively caused a collapse of U.S. office demand, which ironically comes after the market set a post-recession record just last year. For tenants who are hunting for new office, retail, or industrial space, chances are you’re going to be able to negotiate favorable terms and pricing.

In trying and changing times like these, I am very glad I chose to be an exclusive tenant agent representative/buyer’s agent for commercial real estate. I can still be an asset to my clients, whereas other forms of brokerage are more greatly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. During this historic time, I can serve my clients through subleasing, lease restructuring, and negotiating better deals based on current market conditions.

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

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Considering a Commercial Real Estate Investment Property? Read This First!

Posted on November 26, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Investing in commercial real estate can be one of the most lucrative real estate investments you can make. Investors can realize extraordinary capital gains and huge cash flow wins. On the flip side, there can be quite a drastically different outcome when your CRE investment properties sustain long vacancies or big drops in market value.

For many reasons, investing in commercial real estate can be higher risk than other types of real estate investments. This is why it’s so important to be well versed with its nuances and trends – or to have a trusted advisor who is. To put yourself in the best position for a favorable return on your investment, there are certain things anyone thinking about investing in commercial real estate should know. Here is a brief overview of the things you should think about to determine if investing in commercial real estate is right for you.

Start with a Solid Plan

Before you embark on any big undertaking, you should always begin with a plan. The same is just as true for commercial real estate investments. Before investing your hard-earned cash or equity in a commercial property, you should first have a proper investment plan in place that fully equips you to identify the right property for your portfolio. Without a framework to guide your decisions, you may make the mistake of buying a property on impulse or out of pressure from others, even when it really doesn’t fit your goals for long-term strategy, risk mitigation, capital growth and, cash flow.

Understand the Time Required to See a Return

Next, do your research to gain an understanding of a realistic time frame to see a return. Many new investors dive into things thinking they’ll surely see a return in a fraction of the time it will really take to fully develop the investment and make it profitable. Pulling out too early can mean losing a substantial part of your investment, so be sure you plan for the appropriate amount of time that your money may be tied up in a particular commercial real estate investment.

Join with Other Professionals Who Share Your Goals

Successful commercial investors rarely go it alone. They build a team of other professionals who share their same goals. A successful team includes commercial buyer’s agent, appraisers, commercial property inspectors, engineers, lenders and closing attorneys. All of whom are all an essential part of achieving success in real estate investing and who work together to set a clear strategy, conduct detailed research, and source the correct property at a fair price, and with the right conditions that fit the team’s goals. When it comes to choosing your team, choose wisely. Others involved should complement your own shortfalls in knowledge, and in return you may be able to supplement theirs.

Compare and Contrast Your Investment Opportunities

It might seem obvious, but those new to commercial investing often overpay. One of the best ways to prevent yourself from making this mistake is to know where the value point is on the property, be fully aware of comparable prices for any similar properties, and not become focused on the cash flow and lease structure. Paying too much for commercial property locks up your funds in a more rigid way than it would with residential real estate. Banks are far more reluctant to provide equity releases or cash outs for commercial investing.

Do Your Due Diligence

It’s okay to start out cautious. One of the biggest mistakes new commercial real estate investors make is signing on the dotted line without doing their due diligence. If this feels like a daunting task to take on, consider working with an experienced buyer’s agent whose job it is to analyze the property cash flows, educate the buyer on market value and market lease rates, and recommend other professionals (mentioned above). It takes time, resources, and an understanding of market connections to fully vet a commercial investment opportunity.

Consider Additional Expenses Beyond Your Investment

Smart commercial real estate investors know they must carefully allocate their budgets so there is sufficient coverage for expenses such as the mortgage, taxes, insurance, and advertising. When you don’t have enough cash flow to fund these areas, your property can quickly become a liability when really it should be an asset.

Keep an Open Mind

Just because your former tenant was a medical office doesn’t mean your new tenant has to be. This is why buying versatile commercial properties that allow a number of options is a wise investment strategy. When the real estate market fluctuates, you’re better prepared to tackle unexpected situations and experience fewer losses when doing so.

Have Contingency Plans

Finally and most importantly, you need to have at least one, if not multiple contingency plans in place in case things should take an unexpected turn. Investing in commercial real estate always comes with risks, some more than others. You need to be prepared to lose it all; therefore, you should have a plan in place of how you will react – and rebound – if that happens.

What is your experience with commercial real estate investments? Whether you’re a seasoned expert in this field, or have just started to explore the options available to you, giving these topics close consideration with each and every investment will put you in the best potion for a favorable return.

Do you have something to add to this list? Share your input by leaving a comment below!

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Jobs – Not Economy – Drive Commercial Real Estate Activity

Posted on August 22, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Earlier this month, it was reported that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose less than expected. To put this into perspective, claims dropped to 208,000 during the week of July 14, which was the lowest it has been since December 1969! After peaking at nearly 300,000 claims in October of 2017, we have seen a mostly steady (with some variation) decline in unemployment claims moving forward.

Dropping unemployment numbers indicate a strong labor market. The United States has an estimated 149 million jobs – 19 million more than it did just nine years ago. When you think about that type of job growth, it’s easy to see how it will have an impact on commercial real estate. To accommodate 19 million more workers, businesses have had to add space. Even for jobs that are run outside of traditional office space, there are still many more that do utilize office, retail or industrial real estate to some capacity.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Many people may assume that it’s the economy that drives commercial real estate activity, but really it’s jobs. The two are closely correlated, but for several compelling reasons jobs have the greater impact and drive businesses to either expand or contract their commercial space.

It all comes down to people and space.

Economic growth is measured by GDP and can be fueled by any number of factors, most of which won’t have a direct impact on commercial real estate. Businesses can earn more money without necessarily needing to hire more people or move into a different commercial location. Though it’s common that when the economy is growing, the commercial real estate industry becomes more active, the true driving force is jobs.

When businesses need more people, they also need more space to accommodate these people. A business using traditional office space is not likely able to hire more than three or so people before working quarters begin to feel a bit crammed. As a result, they move. It is increasing jobs, not just economy, that spurs new commercial real estate activity.

Change doesn’t happen overnight.

There is somewhat of a long tail on job growth driving commercial real estate activity. It takes time to catch up! When businesses are adding employees, they will usually make their current space “work” for as long as possible and then strategically move into a bigger space when they absolutely must. Conversely, when businesses are forced to lay off employees, they often stay in their current space, even if it means some space goes unused. The reason is it’s easier (and less expensive) to lay off employees as the first means of cutting costs than it is to downsize commercial space.

So, the job growth that we’ve seen over the course of many years is now driving the commercial real estate activity we are seeing today.

Slowing, but not stopping.

Job growth peaked in early 2015, then fell steadily through the end of 2017. Since then we have seen a modest, yet mostly steady increase in recent months. The reality is job growth, at any rate, cannot go on forever. The reason is, at some point, the United States will reach its “full employment” where everyone who wants a job, has a job. The unemployment rate, now at 4%, is about as low as it has been since the late 1960s, almost 50 years ago.

For commercial real estate, the link between job growth and space demand is clear and direct, though there may be lags. There will always be businesses who are looking to change their commercial space. Some will want more space, some will want less. Others will want to move to a newer space or will desire a different location. Businesses will close while others open. And so the cycle continues.

Short-Term Impact

Even with economic growth heating up, commercial real estate investors and property owners should not set their expectations for greater space absorption too high, at least in the short-term. Yes, there will be some pick-up in leasing associated with the spike in GDP growth. However, CRE professionals would be wise to focus more on job growth as the gauge for leasing prospects – and this outlook looks much more moderate because the ranks of unemployed workers available is largely exhausted. Looking at the short-term, we should not anticipate significant growth in property leasing this year. The surging industrial sector is the exception, which is the result of the shift from in-store to online shopping, not jobs.

Do you agree that it’s jobs, not the economy, that has the greater impact on commercial real estate activity? Why or why not? Join in the conversation by leaving a comment below.

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How to Prepare For a Commercial Business Relocation

Posted on June 25, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

For any business who has navigated the challenges of moving into new office, retail or industrial space, you likely learned some valuable lessons along the way of things you would choose to do differently if you had to do it again. A commercial business relocation has a major impact on company culture, customer service and your bottom line. For this reason, it’s critical to be strategic about how you approach your move to set yourself up for a smooth and seamless transition.

To provide valuable insight on the topic of commercial business relocation, Omni Realty interviewed Dick Michaelian. Dick is a principal of Relocation Consulting & Management, Inc (RC&M) located in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania. Having been in the moving and storage business for over 36 years, with 26 of those with RC&M, Dick has helped local, state and federal governments, schools, colleges, healthcare, courthouses, museums and corporate businesses successful relocate to new facilities.

We asked Dick to answer five important questions regarding commercial business relocation covering everything from the biggest challenges to planning for a successful move. Take a look at Dick’s insight and advice that can be applied to any business or organization considering a relocation.

Omni: What are the biggest factors that cause businesses to relocate?

Dick Michaelian: The number one factor is change. While that sounds quite simple, it can be very difficult for an organization to change. Growing, shrinking, change of ownership or leadership are all examples of change. Other factors include the expiration of a lease or sale of a building as well as a desire to change a location because of customers or taxing entities.

Omni: For businesses considering a relocation, what are the most important details they should think through?

Dick Michaelian: A business should begin with the end in mind. How do you want everything to look and operate when the move is completed? From there, you should work back to where you are now and then determine how much time, money and effort will be required to get to where you want to be. Businesses often under estimate the amount of resources required for a good, effective relocation.

Another consideration is how to maintain your level of productivity during the transition. The last thing that should ever happen during a move is for a customer to be told “we can’t be of service to you because of our move.” The entire relocation should be virtually invisible to customers!

Finally, a business should strongly consider what and how it wants to change as a result of the relocation. Change will happen whether it is desired and planned or spontaneous and intrusive.

Omni: How early should businesses begin to plan for their relocation?

Dick Michaelian: The planning should begin as soon as the decision is made that the business is going to move. I’m working with a client now whose move is planned for late 2020 and they want to get a clear picture of what is required for their budget. Planning can never begin too early. The actual implementation of the plan usually begins about four to six months prior to the relocation.

Omni: Describe your recommended planning process for corporate relocation.

Dick Michaelian: The planning process begins with leadership setting the path and goal. From there, it’s getting everyone to work together using the same data. Effective communication is critical. A ‘team’ approach works best, utilizing resources from different facets that will be playing a part in the move – large or small: IT, procurement, facilities, operations, administration and leadership. It’s essential to have a “big picture” perspective of the project while assigning expectations and due-dates to the players.

Once the plan is agreed upon and set, any changes should be well considered. You never want to change a plan in the middle of the move. That rarely proves successful in the end, as often the goal changes as well.

Omni: In your experience, what factors most commonly impact the success of a business’s relocation?

Dick Michaelian: The single most important factor are people moving. The reliability of the planning team members and their dedication to the success of the project is critical. No one person can be responsible for a fantastic move – it’s a team effort. However, one person can really make it hard for everybody else if they don’t want to move or change. Management has to set the tone. Getting the different elements to buy into the change that needs to occur is difficult; but, with the right vision and passion, good leaders will help their organizations through the necessary transition. I always enjoy observing this process with successful businesses.

Moving can be very difficult. Good leaders who recognize that they are in the “people business” have the most impact on the success of a relocation.

Another factor is timing. You never want to move until the new space is ready. And yet, most relocations occur without a new, completed space. Construction delays, last minute changes and contractors not performing are the major causes of this situation.

You can create a great new working environment for your business; but, if the move goes poorly, that’s what everyone will remember. Don’t underestimate the vital importance of a well-planned, smoothly executed relocation from beginning to end!

Is your business considering a relocation to new retail, office or industrial space? What piece of advice did you find most helpful? Join in the conversation, or ask a question by leaving a comment below!

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Does Your Commercial Real Estate Property Qualify for Section 110 Construction Allowances?

Posted on June 11, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate No Comments

Section 110 of the current Internal Revenue Code (IRC) provides an interesting opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords alike. Essentially Section 110, in certain instances, allows commercial tenants to make improvements to their leased workspace with the benefit of not having to recognize income for any cash payments or rent reductions that are expressly identified in the lease as qualified Section 110 allowances. Additionally, under a qualified Section 110 provision, the landlord will be treated as the owner of the constructed improvements and entitled to depreciation deductions as nonresidential real estate.

The purpose of this tax provision is to provide a set of rules for certain construction allowances, in which the tax reporting and treatment will be consistent between the lessor and lessee. It’s important to understand the nuances of Section 110 that determine whether such improvements qualify. Qualified property is nonresidential real estate which is part of, or present at, “retail space,” which property reverts to the lessor at the termination of the lease. The term of the lease must be 15 years or less, applying certain rules.

For most commercial landlords and their tenants, it can be overwhelming to understand how and when it’s appropriate to take advantage of Section 110. If you find that you’re uncertain as to whether your situation qualifies, don’t let this be the reason you forfeit this potential tax break altogether. When used properly, Section 110 can offer a huge benefit to both parties, allowing tenants to enjoy an upgraded, functional workspace, and allowing landlords the ability to improve their commercial property.

Take a moment to answer these questions to determine if your property might qualify under Section 110. To help us answer, we’ve enlisted the expertise of Jim Holland, Certified Public Accountant (CPA) to offer insight into qualifying for this tax deduction. *It’s important to keep in mind that these are simplified questions and answers. More details may be necessary to fully assess your situation.

Is my space considered “retail?”

If you leased, occupied or use space in your trade of selling tangible personal property (i.e. products or goods) or services to the general public, this is considered retail space. You qualify!

Am I in a short-term lease?

If your lease, with extensions, is not greater than 15 years in length this is considered a short-term lease. You qualify!

Am I constructing qualified long-term real property for use in my trade or business?

If you construct nonresidential improvements (sec 1250 property vs. sec 1245 property) which revert to the lessor (i.e. landlord or person leasing you the space) at termination of the lease, the answer to this question is yes. You qualify! A note of caution: if the lessor chooses to use a cost-segregation study to reallocate the costs, a different language must be used in the lease agreement.

Who will ultimately own the improvements to the property?

To adhere to the requirements under Section 110, your lease must specifically indicate that the lessor retains ownership of all improvements to the property. In this case…you qualify!

Do I have an official agreement between the tenant and landlord?

If you have obtained a signed agreement, before payment or before the reduction in rent begins, from the lessor to lessee…you qualify!

Will the allowance be expended in the tax year it is received?

If the full amount of your construction allowance is expended within 8 and 1/2 months after the close of the tax year…you qualify!

Will both the landlord and the tenant disclose this information with their tax returns?

In order to fulfill this requirement, you must disclose both the landlord and tenants names, addresses, employer IDs, location, and amount reported on both lessee and lessor tax returns. In doing so…you qualify!

Does the Safe-Harbor Exclusion apply?

If you have met all of the above requirements, the safe-harbor exclusion applies to your situation. You qualify!

As you can see, Section 110 provides a valuable opportunity for commercial tenants and landlords to improve their spaces while each receiving a benefit for doing so. If you meet the requirements, and it makes sense for your situation, taking advantage of the Section 110 tax breaks could open up new possibilities to create the commercial space you’ve dream about having! The most important thing to keep in mind is that you must be aware of the requirements to qualify under Section 110 in order to receive the maximum benefit. Speak to a professional advisor before entering any contract or commitment.

*General Disclaimer: These are simplified answers and your situation may be more complicated. This document is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.

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Who Really Represents You in a Commercial Lease Negotiation?

Posted on January 24, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

Who Really Represents You in a Commercial Lease Negotiation?

When it comes to leasing commercial workspace, too many tenants mistakenly believe that the landlord’s leasing agent/broker will somehow represent them in negotiations. Unfortunately, this is never the case.

The important question that this article answers is, “Who really represents who in a commercial lease negotiation?”

As a tenant, your wants and interests are usually different than the landlord’s, at times even diametrically opposed. It’s impossible for one broker to represent both sides of your deal faithfully and fairly. There will always be conflicts of interest and the broker most often favors your landlord, not you as the tenant.

Too often, a commercial tenant begins the process of leasing office space without hiring a tenant representative to 100% exclusively represent them. Usually they do not realize that a tenant rep is not at the cost of the tenant, since the tenant rep will normally co-broke a commission with the listing agent.

At some point, tenants then find themselves too far down the road to fully benefit from the expertise, advocacy and unbiased representation of a true tenant rep. This can result in a number of troubling issues and frustrations for the tenant. These include losing the upper hand in negotiations, being subject to unfair pricing and unsatisfactory terms and too late realizing that things could have gone far better if they had a professional dedicated solely to representing their best interests.

It’s important for every commercial tenant to understand the vast difference between a tenant representative and a traditional commercial real estate broker.

Helping us answer this critical question and more is William Gary, Principal at MacLaurin Williams, LLC and founder of The Tenant Rep Channel. Gary’s firm is committed to exclusively representing commercial tenants and owner-occupants and creating valuable resources that help to educate the public on the value of exclusive, 100% tenant representation.

Differences Between Tenant Representatives and Traditional Real Estate Brokers

A real 100% tenant rep should be able to meet all the criteria needed to take the exclusive tenant rep pledge. A landlord’s agent or traditional broker simply cannot make this pledge to tenants and owner-occupants. A real tenant rep never puts him or herself in position to double-end an occupier’s transaction and double-dip on fees/commissions. That’s what traditional CRE brokers frequently attempt to do. It’s their highest goal.

Furthermore, a 100% tenant rep acts as a true fiduciary, advocate and loyal, obedient agent for an occupier. On the other side of the table, the opposing landlord’s agent does this for the landlord. A true 100% tenant rep also conscientiously avoids and turns away from conflicts of interest. Traditional brokers create and run towards them to try and double their fees in your transaction.

Vision and Mission of the Tenant Rep Channel

After resigning from the ITRA Global Organization, MacLaurin Williams, LLC still wanted to have a 100% tenant rep network to serve multi-market clients. Gary explains, “We wanted to compete harder and more effectively against large tenant rep chains and traditional brokerage houses that all perform tenant representation.”

Initially, The Tenant Rep Channel was intended to be an informal 100% tenant rep network just for MacLaurin Williams’ own use. But it escalated when Gary asked two other 100% tenant reps, Chris Carmen (Indianapolis) and Craig Melby (West Palm Beach/Asheville) if they might find a use for it, too. They were immediately interested – and so it grew from there!

Unlike traditional CRE broker networks, The Tenant Rep Channel is an informal, virtual model that doesn’t have any initiation fees, dues, required conferences, travel expenses for airfares and hotels, by-laws or contracts. The mission: Just keep it simple and base it around a shared Google map + list of major markets that every participating 100% tenant rep firm must prominently display on its own website.

Amazingly, the bigger independent, 100% tenant rep firms were just as interested in The Tenant Rep Channel’s marketing tool as the smaller firms. They still felt like they needed a big coverage footprint to compete head-to-head more successfully against the big brokerage houses, such as CBRE, JLL, C&W, Colliers, Newmark, etc., as well as Savills Studley and Cresa as tenant rep chains.

The Tenant Rep Channel’s growing success comes from its ability to provide a big coverage footprint for independent, 100% tenant rep firms. It’s an instant and very real 100% tenant rep network, with most TRC principals having 20 and 30 years of CRE experience. It’s a super heavyweight group in terms of experience, talent and skills.

Omni Realty Group is proud to be a part of The Tenant Rep Channel’s growing network.

How Awareness of the Traditional Broker Conflict Will Reshape Commercial Real Estate

With more education and awareness of the inherent conflicts of interest in the traditional CRE broker model, combined with new resources like The Tenant Rep Channel, you might anticipate that a major shift would take place in the Commercial Real Estate Industry where tenants and buyers would flock to and favor 100% tenant reps over traditional brokers.

However, Gary notes, “Too many occupiers still believe that CRE brokers are pretty much all the same, other than some work for big firms and some for smaller shops.” He goes on to add, “Occupiers often know some CRE brokers as friends or family and they’re comfortable hiring them without understanding the complexity of local agency laws.”

As 100% Tenant Reps, we’ve not done a good enough job of making it clear that the CRE Industry is terribly plagued by conflicts of interest and that these conflicts of interest frequently do serious damage to the best interests of occupiers. Most people can grasp that their attorneys should not have any conflicts of interest in their legal matters; it’s more of a Win vs. Lose situation. But occupiers don’t make the same leap when it comes to hiring CRE Brokers to handle their CRE transactions.

The bottom line is that in order to reshape the Commercial Real Estate Industry, it’s incumbent upon 100% tenant reps to better explain “why” conflicts of interest are so damaging for occupiers. We need to educate tenants and buyers on what can go wrong. Simply saying, “We don’t have conflicts of interest,“ doesn’t resonate with occupiers. It’s not nearly enough.

Occupiers need to learn why conflicts are harmful for them; how they can waste tons of valuable time and spend significantly more money; money that is their valuable net profits.

Gary concludes with these final thoughts, “One thing that we initially hoped would occur on The Tenant Rep Channel is happening. By being connected through this network, creative ideas are getting shared worldwide and some really innovative things are blossoming organically.

The 42Floors Elite Site Widget, which is a full market, commercial property search module for our own websites, is one example. I urge every 100% tenant rep to check it out and really assess the value it could have for your business. We all need to get serious about educating occupiers on the stark differences between 100% tenant representatives and traditional CRE brokers!”

Do you have another question related to the differences between tenant representatives and real estate agents? We welcome you to join in the discussion by leaving a comment below!

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