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Commercial Real Estate Appraisals in Central PA: Q&A with JSR Appraisal Group, Inc.

Posted on May 6, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Local Market No Comments

Appraising commercial real estate is a particularly unique process, and one that if not done carefully and correctly can have a profound impact on the value of a commercial property for many years to come. To dive deeper into the topic of commercial appraising, including the industry trends and challenges, Omni Realty Group enlisted the expertise of Judy Striewig and M. Shane Rorke, Certified General Appraisers and Co-Founders of JSR Appraisal Group, Inc.

JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. is a commercial appraisal firm located in Camp Hill, Pennsylvania, which serves the South Central Pennsylvania market. Together, Judy and Shane opened the firm on January 1, 2015. With 25 years of appraisal experience, Shane has appraised most all types of commercial real estate. In recent years he has focused on land subdivision appraisal work and has tracked many Central Pennsylvania markets for in-depth absorption analysis. Judy’s 15 years of appraisal experience began in 2004 when she entered the industry as an apprentice in the residential appraisal arena. In 2008 she made the move to appraise commercial real estate.

With Judy and Shane’s wealth of knowledge, Omni asked them to weigh in on the most essential questions surrounding the commercial appraisal industry. Here are their answers.

Omni: What do you view as the strengths of your commercial appraisal firm?

JSR: We track most all commercial sales in several markets in South Central Pennsylvania. This data is entered and tracked in our commercial sale database that provides both a detailed and summary picture of sale transactions. This enables us to analyze market transactions and keep an eye on what is happening in the market.

Second, while we are not a large firm, we have four staff members that work together sharing data and ideas on property types, trends, and other real estate issues. We regularly talk to brokers, developers and business owners to gain a pulse on market nuances and business trends.

Omni: How will automated valuation models impact the commercial appraisal process?

JSR: The commercial appraisal process has not been as impacted by automated valuation models as the residential appraisal process for several reasons. First, the quantity of data is much smaller than residential sales. Second, commercial properties are often bought based on the income they produce. This information is typically not available through public sources and is often confidential. And third, a valuation model may be appropriate for certain types of commercial properties like office buildings or warehouse facilities, assuming rental rates are ‘at market’. However the commercial real estate market has such a varied type of product with many specialized buildings, there may not be sufficient amount of data for a valuation model to be effective.

While my thoughts on using a packaged valuation model for commercial (and even residential) real estate are leery, I do believe analysis of large data sets would be helpful to the profession. The use of regression testing to provide rules of thumb to assist in making adjustments and decisions on comparing properties would be helpful. For example, we often consider making an adjustment for properties of different sizes (based on the economies of scale principle). I see a true benefit in models that use regression analysis to provide guidelines for different pricing based on size of a property and other similar property characteristics.

Omni: What are some of the recent regulatory changes on valuation rules and do you foresee this impacting your profession?

JSR: There have been two recent regulatory changes on valuation rules, but we don’t see either of these as having a significant impact. In June of 2018, Pennsylvania passed into legislation a law that allows State Real Estate Brokers, Associate Brokers and salespeople to provide Broker Price Opinions (BPO). Brokers are limited to performing BPO’s for financial institutions in conjunction with properties owned by the institutions that meet certain criteria. They remain prohibited from providing valuation services for mortgage financing, eminent domain, tax appeals and valuation scenarios. Additionally, the FDIC is contemplating raising the appraisal threshold from $250,000 to $500,000 for commercial real estate transactions, and $250,000 to $400,000 for residential real estate transactions.

Omni: What are some of the biggest challenges you face as a commercial appraiser?

JSR: Appraisals are often viewed as a necessary step or hurdle to obtain financing. (Yes, we know this.) And because of this the borrower often picks the ‘cheapest’ bid provided. The borrower has no idea how much experience the appraiser has with the specific property type or what due diligence will be performed in developing an opinion of value.

A second challenge is that the only part of the appraisal report that gets any attention from the borrower is typically the final value. The support and analysis that went into developing the value opinion are often not considered or read by the borrower. And, if a buyer really takes the time to review the report, there is a lot of pertinent information about the property within the report, other than the value opinion. In today’s busy times, I am not sure this will change anytime soon. However I would like to see the borrower use the document as a source of information about the property as well as an objective viewpoint in value.

Omni: What most often causes a disconnect between an appraiser’s and an owner’s opinion of value?

JSR: Often, a buyer’s business is interwoven with a commercial building. Take a well performing restaurant with good management and a well-known reputation. Most commonly when we appraise the property we are appraising the real estate only and not the business value. Our value opinion must isolate the real estate, and exclude any value attributed to the business which includes the reputation and operation. This sometimes results in a real estate value opinion lower than the opinion of the owner of the thriving business. We must look at a property as if that management and reputation were taken away, what would the real estate sell for on the open market.

There have been times when we are asked why we need leases or historical income and expenses to appraise a building. “Isn’t the value, the value?” we are asked. As mentioned earlier, commercial real estate is often valued by the income it produces and long-term leases have significant impact on value. Would you pay the same price for a building that produces leased income of $100,000 annually for the next 20 years or an identical building that produces leased income of $50,000 annually for the next 20 years?. While this may sound obvious, it often is not taken into consideration when a value differs from what an owner has in mind.

Omni: Is there anything else you wish to add that could offer insight into Central PA’s commercial real estate market right now?

JSR: While we do not have any earth shattering observations, we can share some of the trends we see, of which some are obvious.

Retail that can be purchased on-line is struggling, while retail that requires ‘hands on’ shopping is prospering.
The retail restaurant business has grown at a rapid pace in the last few years. Younger generations eat out much more frequently than previous generations, and this sector of retail is strong.
Because of our central location and access to highway systems, the South Central Pennsylvania Industrial Market is our strongest real estate market.
The apartment market in the City of Harrisburg continues to grow with new apartments being quickly absorbed as they come on-line. Rental rates for nicely renovated apartments are $700 to $800 for studios, $800 to $1,000 for 1-bedroom units and $950 to $1,250 for 2-bedroom units. Based on the rental rates and occupancy rates, these properties are yielding high values. However there has been no recent sales of these newly renovated apartments to truly gauge how investors look at renovated apartments in the City as pure investments.
There has been significant price appreciation in the professional office market for good quality, stabilized assets. Cap rates are below 8.00% with some recent transactions in the low 7.00% range that have long-term, credit rated tenants in place. Cap rates for single-tenant medical office buildings are sub 7.00%.

When working with a commercial real estate appraiser, there are several important things to keep in mind. Look for one who is experienced and reputable in your local market and who can demonstrate on-going, extensive research of market sales and lease activity. You also want to work with someone who encourages open dialogue and discussion to ensure the scope of work and appraisal assignment meets your expectations and needs. Omni Realty Group thanks Judy and Shane of JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. for sharing their insight and expertise in this blog. You can learn more about JSR Appraisal Group, Inc. at www.jsrappraisal.com.

Judy Striewig

M. Shane Rorke

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What’s the difference between a listing agent and tenant rep agent?

Posted on April 8, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Tenant Representative/Buyer Agent No Comments

The use of the term real estate agent casts a broad umbrella under which people tend to lump all real estate professionals into the same category. The truth is that there is a big difference between the role of a listing agent and a tenant/buyer agent. While both might be referred to as simply a “real estate agent,” it’s important to understand when and how you would use each when it comes to buying or selling real estate.

Listing Agent – A listing agent might also be referred to as a seller’s agent. This is the person who represents the seller or landlord in a deal. His or her job is to list and market the property to attract potential buyers, then negotiate an acceptable deal on behalf of the seller.

Tenant/Buyer Agent – On the other side of the deal you have the tenant/buyer agent. This is the person who represents the tenant or buyer looking to lease or purchase property. His or her job is to find and bring a tenant/buyer to properties which meet their criteria, then represent them in a deal to ensure terms and pricing is fair to the buyer.

How is a listing agent compensated?

Most commonly, a listing agent signs an exclusive right-to-sell/lease listing with the seller/landlord, meaning only the listing agent’s brokerage is entitled to an agreed upon commission upon the sale or lease of the property. The brokerage then typically shares the commission with the agent. Exclusive listings are bilateral agreements between a broker and a seller/landlord. It’s important to know that a listing actually belong to the broker or brokerage, not the listing agent unless he is also owner of the brokerage. However, it is important to make the distinction between a tenant/buyer agent and a subagent of the seller/landlord. If the tenant/buyer does not have a formal written agreement with the tenant/buyer agent then the agent who is showing the property and providing information to the tenant/buyer is considered a subagent of the listing agent and is not representing the interests of the tenant/buyer.

How is a tenant/buyer agent compensated?

Generally, the listing agent cooperates with the tenant/buyer agent and shares a portion of the earned commission in exchange for bringing a tenant/buyer to the table, if that tenant/buyer then submits an offer that the seller accepts. This is referred to as a “co-op” commission. It’s important to note that a tenant/buyer agent is at no cost to the tenant/buyer.

Do I really need to work with an agent?

Legally, no. You are not required to work with an agent and can opt to list your property as a For Sale By Owner (FSBO). But there are benefits to working with a listing agent. Foremost, it becomes their responsibility to market and sell your property in a timely fashion and for an agreeable price. They will schedule showings and handle all of this for you. Many sellers benefit from working with a listing agent because their property may sell faster and at a higher price point than if they decided to go it alone. Also, many people value having a professional to take these time-consuming tasks off their hands.

If you are on the other side of the deal as a tenant/buyer, again you do not legally need to work with a tenant/buyer agent in order to buy or lease a property. However, similarly to the points regarding working with a listing agent, a buyer may also experience benefits when working with a tenant/buyer agent. Foremost, you will have their knowledge and expertise to guide you through the buying/leasing process, and someone who will represent your best interests. A tenant/buyer agent can also make your property search less time consuming by showing you only properties that they know fit your criteria. Think of them as your tenant/buyer “concierge.”

Can the listing agent also be the selling agent?

Simply stated, no. A listing agent should not be the selling agent within the same deal. Why? Because there is a major conflict of interest in doing so. Think of it like having the same lawyer represent both the defense and the prosecution in a case. Neither side will receive fully unbiased, honest representation, and the counsel walks away with twice the compensation. In fact, states such as California have gone as far as making such “dual agency” practices illegal.

Too often, a tenant/buyer begins looking at property without hiring a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent) to exclusively represent them. Usually they do not realize that a selling agent is not at the cost of the tenant/buyer, since the tenant/buyer agent will normally co-broke a commission with the listing agent. A tenant/buyer agent is compensated by splitting the commission with the listing agent. So, the client gets representation at no cost. The commission arrangement between the owner and listing agent will be paid whether or not the tenant/buyer has representation.

Without representation, tenants or buyers often find themselves needing the expertise, advocacy and unbiased advice of a listing agent. This can result in a number of troubling issues and frustrations for the tenant/buyer. These include losing the upper hand in negotiations, being subject to unfair pricing and unsatisfactory terms and too late realizing that things could have gone far better if they had a professional dedicated solely to representing their best interests.

When it comes to understanding the differences between a listing agent and a selling agent (aka tenant/buyer agent), the most important take away is that whatever side of the deal you’re on, you want to be sure you have your own representation to advocate for your best interests and negotiate a favorable deal.

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A Decline in International Students Will Hurt a Lot More than Colleges and Universities

Posted on March 22, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Community, Trends No Comments

According to a report by MarketWatch, the number of overseas students coming to the U.S. for grad school declined for the second year in a row. There is much speculation as to what could be causing this trend; however, one reappearing theme ties back to the current political climate here in the United States.

As you likely remember, President Donald Trump initiated a ban on people entering the U.S. from multiple Muslim-majority countries, all of which have a track record of sending students to America for higher education. It’s not difficult to see a near-immediate impact. For example, U.S. graduate school applications from Iran, one of the countries targeted by the travel ban, fell 27% between fall 2017 and fall 2018. The travel ban isn’t the only blamed culprit. President Trump has floated changes to student visas that would reduce the amount of time international students can stay in the U.S.

Naturally, colleges and universities in the U.S. who rely on international students to make up a significant portion of their admissions are concerned. If the U.S. continues to present hurdles that make it unappealing, if not impossible for certain international students to study in the U.S., our colleges and universities are not the only pillars of our community who should be concerned. A decline in international students will have a ripple effect on our economy which will flow into many different industries, including real estate.

How significant is this impact and what industries should be most concerned? Let’s take a closer look at the economic impact of fewer international students coming to the U.S.

International Students Drive Economic Growth

Simply put, international students are pivotal to our economy. First, they often pay the highest tuition rates which is why colleges and universities carefully account for enrolling so many international students to keep their budgets in line. Next, while international students are studying in the U.S., they are spending money on food, clothing, living essentials, as well as renting space to live. Many smaller colleges have built on-campus apartments primarily for the use of their international students. Compared to students that reside with their parents and commute to school, international students have a markedly different economic impact on the school and the surrounding community.

To put a value on this point, the Institute of International Education, an organization that promotes research and international study, estimates that international students contributed $39 billion to the U.S. economy in 2017. In fact, some colleges and universities rely so heavily upon their international students that they have gone as far as taking out an insurance policy to protect themselves against the drop in international enrollment!

A Local Look

The facts and stats reporting the decline in international students coming to the U.S. takes a national look, but what about locally here in Central Pennsylvania? Are we seeing the same trends? One of the area’s leading universities for international enrollment is Penn State Harrisburg. College Factual ranks Penn State Harrisburg as 114th out of a total 1,300 colleges and universities for popularity with international students. And the pool of international students is diverse. At least 50 countries are represented on the Penn State Harrisburg campus with the most being from China, India, and, South Korea.

Interestingly from 2011 to 2016, enrollment of international students has been steadily increasing with 716 international students being enrolled at Penn State Harrisburg in 2016. What this doesn’t account for is the most recent travel ban and change to student visas implemented in 2017-2018 that would not be reflected in this data; however, it is likely to be released soon. With international students making up about 14.2% of the student body at Penn State Harrisburg, should the University also experience the decrease in international enrollment that has been sweeping the nation, it will join the ranks of so many other educational institutions hurting due to this downward trend.

As It Relates to Real Estate

It’s clear how international students impact the colleges and universities in which they are enrolled, but what impact do they really have on real estate and is this decline enough to cause any significant changes to our residential and commercial real estate markets?

International students arriving in the U.S. to study are in immediate need of semi long-term housing, typically at least two years and up to 6+ years depending upon the type of degree they are pursuing. International students can technically choose to purchase real estate on their student visa, but mortgages and lending have a whole host of challenges, making cash to most desirable and feasible option for purchasing home a home. Most commonly, international students decide to rent real estate either from the college or university that they are attending or from a landlord in the community.

Depending upon the demand for off-campus student housing, some real estate investors have created a significant business around owning and renting out real estate to students, including international students. Should there be a severe enough decline in international students, this could cause a decrease in demand for real estate. Property owners will need to make a strategic decision to either ride this wave, with a decreased income for an unknown period of time, or sell off some of their properties if they feel this trend could last a while.

Additionally, should a decline in international students persist, colleges and universities whose campus housing is mostly occupied by international students are not likely to invest in renovating or adding to this real estate until the decline stabilizes and/or reverses.

Key Things to Keep in Mind

All-in-all, this trend in decreasing enrollment from international students is one we must keep an eye on for a variety of reasons. When our colleges and universities are economically impacted, it is highly likely that other businesses and the community as a whole will also feel an impact. Should this provide to be a short-lived trend that passes as the political climate changes, there is the probable outcome that things will return to normal and possibly better than before.

However, we would be shortsighted to not think beyond forces within the U.S. To compound the issue, other counties are also competing for international students and are surely making every effort to market themselves as the most attractive option. It will be a constant battle for the U.S. to retain and grow its international students. Given our country’s reputation for high-quality education, this is not an impossible feat, but we must remain strategic to stay ahead of the curve!

What do you feel are the most critical areas to be impacted by a decline in international students? Beyond colleges and universities what other industries will be most significantly impacted?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

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Central PA’s Largest Commercial Real Estate Sales of 2018

Posted on February 25, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Industrial, Local Market, Office Leasing, Trends No Comments

Central PA’s Largest Commercial Real Estate Sales of 2018

There is much we can learn by analyzing a market’s largest commercial real estate sales in a given year. Looking at each the industrial, retail and office sectors, it’s interesting to see the varying demand for size, price and class from sector-to-sector. This tells us a lot of about the direction of economic growth for a region; and for a real estate investor, it also showcases where the best investment opportunities for the future may lie.

Here is a look at the largest commercial real estate sales that took place in Central Pennsylvania in 2018, grouped by sector and sorted by highest sell price.

INDUSTRIAL

1. 2 Ames Drive – Amazon (Carlisle)

This 700,000 SF, Class A industrial distribution building sold on December 20, 2018 to MetLife Real Estate Investments for $74,600,000. Built in 2012, this building was sold by American Realty Advisors for $106.57 per square foot. The price represents a 4.89% cap rate. American Realty Advisors had acquired the property in 2015 for $62.475 million.

2. 3700-3900 Industrial Rd – Supervalu (Harrisburg)

This 750,000 SF, Class B industrial building sold on May 1, 2018 to Fortress Investment Group LLC for $38,373,479. Built in 1985 and renovated in 1999, this building was sold by Supervalu Inc. for $51.16 per square foot. The lease agreements between Supervalu and the new landlord had an initial term for 20 years, with five five-year renewal options on a triple-net lease.

3. 6345 Brackbill Blvd – Exel Logistics (Mechanicsburg)

This 507,634 SF, Class B industrial warehouse sold on April 5, 2018 to Penwood Real Estate Investment Management, LLC for $33,100,000. Built in 1985, this building was sold by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority for $66.20 per square foot. The price represents about a 6.15% cap rate on in-place income.

4. 102 Roadway Drive – Saia, Inc. (Carlisle)

This 61,658 SF, Class C, truck terminal along with 40 acres was sold in October 2018 to Saia for $32,000,000. The additional acreage pushed the sales price to over $518 per square foot. YRC, the seller, still owns and occupies the larger industrial building next to this property.

5. 571 Independence Ave – Upper Allen Business Park (Mechanicsburg)

This 378,000 SF, Class B industrial warehouse sold on August 22, 2018 to Prologis, Inc. for $24,971,824. Built in 1999, this building was part of a portfolio sold by DCT Industrial Trust for $66.06 per square foot. Prologis, Inc., a global leader in logistics real estate, acquired DCT in an all-stock acquisition of for $8.5 billion, including the assumption of debt.

RETAIL

1. 6416 Carlisle Pike – Silver Spring Square (Mechanicsburg)

This 342,603 SF power center anchored by Wegmans was sold on April 17, 2018 to The Wilder Companies for $88,810,000. Built in 2007, this building was sold by Silver Spring Square, LLC for $235.87 per square foot. The price represents an in-place cap rate of 7%.

2. 830-870 N. US Route 15 – The Dillsburg Shopping Center (Dillsburg)

This 162,783 SF neighborhood center was sold on September 24, 2018 to Vastgood Properties, LLC for $24,400,000. Built in 1994 and renovated in 2002, this property was sold by Brixmoor Property Group for $149.89 per square foot. The property traded at a 6.333% cap rate.

3. 5301 Simpson Ferry Rd – Giant (Mechanicsburg)

This 51,394 SF retail property sold on August 17, 2018 to Patriot Equity Partners, LLC for $17,540,000. Built in 2004, this property was sold by Exchange Right Real Estate, LLC for $341.28 per square foot.

4. 130 Kline Village – Kline Plaza (Harrisburg)

This 214,628 SF community center was sold to Nassimi Realty Corp. on December 12, 2018 for $8,700,000. Built in 1952, this property was sold by Brixmoor Property Group for $40.54 per square foot. The price represents a 10% in-place cap rate.

5. 1313 Kenneth Road – Dick’s Sporting Goods (York)

This 55,200 SF retail property was sold to the Stewart Companies on December 27, 2018 for $6,250,000. Built in 1988, this property was sold by First Capital Realty Inc. for $113.22 per square foot.

OFFICE

1. 1920 Technology Pky – Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (Mechanicsburg)

This 100,000 SF Class B Office Building sold on December 3, 2018 to Boyd Watterson Asset Management for $26,950,000. Built in 2010, this building was sold by Hudson Companies for $269.50 per square foot at a 7.5% cap rate. The building is fully leased to the PA Dept of Corrections.

2. 1250 Camp Hill Bypass (Camp Hill)

This 84,000 SF Class B Office Building sold on November 27, 2018 to Waterday Properties for $19,750,000. Built in 2015, this building was sold by Hoffer Properties for $235.12 per square foot. The building is leased to Hewlett Packard and Medical Mutual.

3. 1 Trinity Dr E – UPMC Pinnacle FamilyCare (Dillsburg)

This 43,212 SF Class B Medical Building sold on August 9, 2018 to Hammes Partners for $19,000,000. Built in 2008, this building was sold by Anchor Commercial Realty for $439.69 per square foot. The MOB is occupied by UPMC Pinnacle and Presbyterian Senior Living.

4. 909 Elmerton Ave – Pennsylvania DEP South Central Regional HQ (Harrisburg)

This 73,101 SF Class B Office Building sold on August 2, 2018 to Boyd Watterson Asset Management for $14,500,000. Built in 1998, this building was sold by Elmerton 909, LP for $198.36 per square foot. The building is fully occupied by the PA Dept of Environmental Protection.

5. 3801 Paxton Street (Harrisburg)

This 61,198 SF Class A Office Building sold on January 31, 2018 to Arthur L. Walters Co. for $8,425,000. Built in 2006 and updated in 2017, this building was sold by Thomas A. Salvaggio for $137.67 per square foot. The property traded at a 6.86% cap rate.

Closing Thoughts

In Central Pennsylvania and across the nation, it’s fair to say that the commercial real estate market delivered its fair share of ups and downs. Now that we’ve taken a closer look at the largest industrial, retail and office real estate sales of 2018, there are a few interesting points worth noting in each sector.

Industrial – Industrial real estate continues to lead all other real estate sectors with $529 million in sales volume in 2018. The average price was $60 per square-foot, with the average property selling for $4.2 million with a 6.3% cap rate.

Retail – A total of $346 million was invested in Central PA’s retail real estate market in 2018, an increase over 2016 and 2017. The average sale price was $107per square-foot with a 7.5% cap rate.

Office – Annual volume levels for Central PA’s office real estate market were trending down for 3 years running, but 2018 rebounded with $266 million in total sales. The average office property sold for $1.4 million with 8.2% cap rate. Two of the top five largest office sales to take place in 2018 were buildings leased to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

Given the largest and most notable commercial real estate sales that took place in Central PA in 2018, do you notice any other trends this might indicate? Share your insights below by leaving a comment.

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Buying, Not Leasing Healthcare Real Estate is Now the Smarter Move

Posted on January 25, 2019 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Healthcare, Local Market, Trends No Comments

In recent years, we saw a trend taking place where healthcare systems across the nation, and specifically within Central Pennsylvania, were monetizing their real estate assets. The drastic increase in healthcare costs at that time made it necessary for many health care systems to sell real estate to increase capital and decrease debt.

But now the pendulum is starting to swing in the opposite direction.

Starting in 2017 and well into 2018, an emerging trend has formed where hospitals are now choosing to own rather than capitalize their assets. The market shows that hospitals are purchasing new buildings or purchasing back buildings that have sold.

Why the Shift?

The shift in the way healthcare systems view real estate is due to a number of factors working together. The recent changes to the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and how leases will be treated, as well as the rising cost of lease rates and construction costs have created enough momentum to change the “tides” so the speak. Essentially, leases longer than 12 months will need to be listed on the lessee’s balance sheet as both an asset and a liability. In many cases, this makes it more favorable to outright buy a property rather than lease it, especially if you plan to stay longer than 12 months.

Mergers Mean More Buying Power

Large health systems continue to merge together to corner new markets, increase market share, and leverage operations for economic efficiency. Smaller health systems are also teaming up to accomplish similar goals by joining larger health systems that have capital and resources to achieve economies of scale.

In 2018, 30 health system and hospital deals were made in the first quarter alone, which is 11 percent higher than 2017. These health system mergers are the survival plan against lower reimbursements, decreasing patient admissions/readmissions and the demand for lower cost of care in the community.

As these healthcare systems merge together, they also combine resources which creates both the need and the ability to purchase real estate they may not have been able to otherwise. Given the FASB changes, it’s a smart move for hospitals to team up so they can outright purchase real estate rather than lease it and face the increased cost of doing so.

Impact on Central Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is right on trend as it experiences similar healthcare mergers and acquisitions as the entire United States. In fact, the majority of healthcare real estate activity of the northeast region took place right here in the Commonwealth. In 2018, Pennsylvania had 17 transactions, following was New York with 13 transactions, New Jersey with 13 transactions, and Massachusetts with 10.

Lancaster General Health, who is a member of the University of Pennsylvania Health System (Penn Med) is among the most recent examples of this trend. In late September, Lancaster purchased a 41,000 square foot building located at 950 Octorara Trail in Parkesburg, PA for $230 per square foot. Though this deal is not notable for its size or its value, it demonstrates the shift from monetization of real estate assets to capital investment. And we can expect this to continue.

How do you see this new trend impacting the national as well as our local economy? Do the pros outweigh the cons? Share your insight by leaving a comment below!

How Opportunity Zones Could Impact Central PA Real Estate

Posted on December 26, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Construction, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

Opportunity Zones are being referred to as “real estate’s most exciting new investment vehicle,” but what are they and can they really live up to this title?

How this type of investment works and why it stands to be so beneficial is essentially this: capital gains are invested in Opportunity Zones, taxes are deferred, the basis is lowered, taxes are then paid in 2026 (at the same nominal value as in 2018), and after 2028 the Opportunity Zone holding can be sold with no capital gains tax due.

Better yet, there are very few restrictions on the properties in which one can invest. It’s estimated that there are $2.3 trillion worth of unrealized capital gains in the U.S. Even if only 15 percent of this is invested in Opportunity Zones, this will exceed the 2017 corporate income tax revenue and almost match the Medicaid spend of that same year.

The potential benefits don’t stop there. Opportunity Zones can also provide a tax deferral on gain that investors invest in a fund, and the elimination of gain in the new Opportunity Zone investment if it is held for more than 10 years.

This should paint a clearer picture as to why Opportunity Zones have real estate investors abuzz. To answer the most essential questions related to Opportunity Zones, and specifically how they stand to impact Central Pennsylvania real estate, Omni Realty has asked Silas Chamberlin to share his expertise and insight on this topic.

Silas Chamberlin, PhD is the Vice President, Economic & Community Development at York County Economic Alliance. Prior to joining YCEA in fall of 2018, he served as CEO of Downtown Inc. Chamberlin has also served as executive director of the Schuylkill River National Heritage Area, an organization promoting economic revitalization in five counties of southeastern Pennsylvania. And he has held leadership positions in the non-profit sector and state government. Throughout his career, Chamberlin has focused on helping communities leverage their unique assets to create opportunities for economic development and a higher-quality of life.

Mike Kushner of Omni Realty and Silas Chamberlin jump right to the meat of things starting with the local impact of Opportunity Zones, using the Greater York Area as a sampling.

Omni: How many census tracts in York County were approved for the Opportunity Zone program? And where?

Silas Chamberlin: York County has five designated tracts. All tracts are located in the City of York and are the tracts which encompass most of the city’s brownfield sites. Tracts in Hanover and Wrightsville were eligible for designation, but were not selected by the state.

Omni: Specifically, how will this program benefit the Greater York Area and how soon do you expect to see an initial impact?

SC: Opportunity Zones will attract additional investment to qualified projects in our five opportunity zones. The tax break should help draw investors’ attention to projects that have not benefited from private investment in the past. YCEA is a working partner to help identify viable projects within the zones to market to Qualified Opportunity Fund investors. We are also vetting the creation of local and regional funds focused on the city’s zones.

In theory, we could see funds begin investing in qualified projects at any time. Opportunity Zones are intentionally driven by the free market and individual investment decisions, so it is difficult to tell how much investment will end up in York. Observers at the national level have noted that there may be more private capital available than viable projects, so York should certainly position itself to take full advantage.

Omni: Are the tax breaks provided through this program enough to incentivize private investors and spur activity?

SC: The short answer is yes. But it would be inaccurate to view Opportunity Zones as a panacea that will turn vacant buildings into viable investment opportunities overnight. The most competitive projects will be those that are already viable without Opportunity Zone funds, but would benefit from additional investment.

Unlike New Markets Tax Credits or other popular programs, Opportunity Fund investments are unlikely to subsidize a project because the project must be able to grow in value and return an investment to the fund. YCEA’s strategy is to identify viable projects within Opportunity Zones and then use the designation to attract investors’ attention. We see this as yet another tool in our economic development financing toolbox.

Omni: Are there any drawbacks to the Opportunity Zone program?

SC: Opportunity Zones rely on a self-certification process for creating a fund, which means that investors have lots of autonomy. This also means that economic development organizations and municipalities may not always be aware of investments being made in their zones. Because the zones are distressed areas by definition, there is a higher risk that outside investment could change neighborhoods and business districts without any local engagement or controls. There are potential controls that could help guide development in Opportunity Zones—such as zoning overlays—but these tools are not yet well developed, especially in smaller cities.

Finally, there is the risk for disappointment. Opportunity Zones absolutely provide another tool to attract investment, but there is a risk in promoting them as transformational and raising the hopes of residents and developers that untapped capital will begin flowing into the census tracts that need it the most. While there is reason to be hopeful, the reality of matching qualified investors to viable projects may narrow the scope and impact of the tax break.

The Bottom Line

Experts predict that after an initial wave of Opportunity Zone fund offerings in early 2019, there may be a pause that coincides with the issuance of additional regulations during which market participants will evaluate fund and project structures. After that, barring the rise of general economic headwinds, it should be full steam ahead for Opportunity Zone funds moving forward.

From a real estate perspective, Opportunity Zone projects need to be viewed as development projects because the requirement is to create new property or substantially improve property. To reemphasize Silas Chamberlin’s point, there is surely reason to be hopeful that Opportunity Zones will flow capital into census tracts that need it the most. But we must remain cautiously optimistic about how quickly and substantially this capital will come about. Much like anything related to real estate, and especially real estate investment, most outcomes remain at the mercy of the market and ever-changing government regulations.

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Growing Demand for “Live-Work-Play” Communities in Central PA

Posted on December 4, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, Community, Guest Blogger, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Photo: Walden in Mechanicsburg, PA

If you’ve been a resident of Central Pennsylvania for more than a few years, you’ve likely seen various live-work-play (LWP) communities – maybe you even live in one. What we’re talking about it mixed-use commercial and residential real estate where people have the opportunity to live, work and play (shop, dine, etc.) all in a relatively close distance to one another. A great example is the Walden community in Mechanicsburg, but there are many others that we will examine in this article.

To help us explore this growing trend, we turned to Chris LeBarton who is a Senior Market Analyst with CoStar Group. Chris covers commercial real estate data in Western Maryland, including the Baltimore metro area, up through Central Pennsylvania for CoStar’s Market Analytics platform.

Chris joins Mike Kushner of Omni Realty Group for a Q&A series where we specifically look at the growing demand for LWP communities in Central PA – and what this means for CRE professionals. Here is how Chris answers our most pressing questions.

Omni: When did the LWP trend begin and how has it grown?

Chris LeBarton: The earliest usage of LWP spaces I can find was in 2005. The trend really started to grow in popularity leading up to the market crash, but there’s no correlation between the two that I can see. The term “live-work-play” was very likely used prior to that, but I’m guessing the branding of mixed-use development really took off as concepts of ‘walkable urbanism’ and ‘Transit Oriented Development’ (TOD) exploded across the country.

According to the Urban Land Institute’s Mixed-Use Development Handbook, which was published in 2003, mixed-use development: provides three or more significant revenue-producing uses (such as retail/entertainment, office, residential, hotel, and/or civic/cultural/recreation); fosters integration, density, and compatibility of land uses, and; creates a walkable community with uninterrupted pedestrian connections.

Omni: Describe a LWP community in Central PA.

Chris LeBarton: First, let’s clarify what a LWP community really is, and what it is not. Some economic development entities and marketing types play pretty fast and loose with the term. An area can be a really nice place to live, work and play in, but if there’s over a mile or so between one element of the triad and the other two legs of the stool aren’t in the same building/development, it’s not really a LWP dynamic. Of course, the likelihood that most people who live in one of these communities also works in the same office/industrial park nearby is fairly low. But being able to do all three and be largely reliant on public transportation or your own two feet is really the spirit of the LWP concept.

Another key element to understand is that LWP is not at all relegated to a city environment. In fact, part of these projects’ collective appeal is that they can recreate a city environment without being in the hustle and bustle of a CBD. Specifically in Central Pennsylvania, there are a number of LWP developments. Here are just a few:

Lime Spring Square (Lancaster/Hempfield Township): A multi-phase, mixed-use campus being developed by Oaktree Development Group, the end result will include over 100,000 SF of retail, several hundred high-end apartments, and components of office, medical and industrial space. Penn State Health has a 76,000 SF medical office building there, while PDQ Industries is expanding operations into an 80,000 SF building.
North Cornwall Commons (Lebanon/North Cornwall Township): Another phased project that has been delayed off and on since being proposed in 2004, North Cornwall Commons is finally seeing movement at what would be the largest mixed-use development in Lebanon County history. A retail strip center with at least one confirmed tenant (a local coffee business) is underway at 148-acre site that includes plans for roughly 165 townhomes, office space and a hotel.
The 1500 Condominium (Harrisburg): An example of how you don’t have to have everything in one place, 1500 has 43 units (mostly rentals) that sit over top of two restaurants and is within walking distance to the Broad Street Market and several small-to-medium sized employers.
Wyomissing Square (Reading/Wyomissing Borough): A quintessential brownfield redevelopment, Wyomissing Square now consists of 250 4 Star apartments, a Courtyard by Marriott, small-scale retail, restaurants, and a 60,000 SF medical office building.

Omni: Who is the target demographic for this type of community?

Chris LeBarton: As with anything that deals with where people live, shop/eat or work, I think the answer is “All of the Above.” We hear all too often about Millennials, or Boomers, or Downsizers, or Divorcees. Honestly, the more conversations I have with leasing agents and brokers the more I’m convinced the rule is diversity and the exception is homogeneity. Granted, most of these LWP sites cater to the more upscale or educated among society, but that doesn’t mean there can’t be families with two working blue collar parents who make a decent living and who want to save money on a car/parking and live close to work.

Omni: What advice could help commercial real estate professionals capitalize on the LWP trend?

Chris LeBarton: I don’t give investment advice, but here are a couple thoughts. First, find a way to make it authentic. Be it the retail mix, or a unique concept to the green space, or simply having the “town center” not look boiler plate, be conscientious of that buzz word “place making.” If you’re going to basically spend the majority of your waking life in a small area, it can’t be boring or cookie cutter.

Next, think ahead. What will you need to provide 3-5 years from now? Who would have thought that cities would be crawling with scooters?! Or even just electric vehicles. People looking to walk or be publicly transported or drive as little/cheaply as possible will likely demand options and flexibility. Things to consider are multiple charging stations, bike share platforms, car-share parking lots, etc.

Finally, identify fairly gentrified but not-yet-there locations that are retail/grocery deserts. LWP in the middle of a depressed community won’t work in many places (there are exceptions, of course). But cool/changing areas that are the next ‘it place’ often still need the food and fun to complete the shift.

Omni: Looking to the future, how do you predict LWP communities to evolve in Central PA?

Chris LeBarton: I think you can expect to see more of these types of projects turn up around dying malls or outlet centers that have to repurpose big blocks of space. Another interesting new trend that I could see taking off is the rise of co-living and co-working spaces in the same building.

The LWP trend stands to have a significant impact on Central PA’s commercial real estate market. Because LWP communities rejuvenate the local community, drive business and create employment opportunities, Central PA should be encouraged that so many of these communities are popping up across the region. Additionally this type of real estate appeals to a wide variety of demographics, making it a valuable investment opportunity for commercial real estate professionals. Looking to the future, LWP communities could be among the most powerful tools to breathe new life into struggling areas, and spur a burst of new economic activity that is greatly needed.

What are your thoughts on the growing demand for live-work-place communities in Central Pennsylvania? Is this type of community attractive to you? Why or why not?

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Pros and Cons of Crowdfunding and Commercial Real Estate

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

By now you’ve likely heard of the concept of crowdfunding. Maybe you’ve even ran a campaign for yourself or used a crowdfunding platform to give money to a cause. When most people think of crowdfunding, they think of using it to raise money for charity, like Go Fund Me, or to help grow a business, like Kickstarter. But one sector of crowdfunding that is steadily growing is crowdfunding for commercial real estate investments. It’s exactly what it sounds like. A group (or “crowd”) of fellow CRE investors purchase shares of a property or properties. Their combined resources allow them to jointly own CRE properties that none could afford to invest in individually.

On paper – or should we say on the internet – it’s a seemingly simple concept with obvious benefits. But it’s not without drawbacks too. Next we’re going to take a closer look at the pros and cons of crowdfunding for commercial real estate, and how this investment option may or may not be a good fit for you.

The Pros –

Affordable Price of Entry

Most people don’t have millions of dollars, even a hundred thousand dollars to put into a commercial real estate investment. This obstacle no longer has to stop interested investors from getting in on a great CRE deal. Through crowdfunding, pooling together funds is simple and fast. Commonly the price of entry is anywhere from $1,000 to $5,000. Compare this to outright owning your own investment property and you’ll see that this price of entry makes crowdfunding a really affordable opportunity.

Control of Your Cash

Compared to putting your money in a real estate investment trust (REIT), CRE crowdfunding gives you a lot more control and oversight. You get to choose exactly the type of property you want to invest in; you’re not relying on a trust manager to do this for you. For some investors, they love the thrill of the hunt of doing their own research and finding just the right property to invest in. If this is you, then you’ll enjoy that crowdfunding gives you control over when and how you invest your cash.

Diversity

Having a diverse investment portfolio is important. You want to be sure you’re not betting on just one horse. Through crowdfunding, you can invest in many different CRE properties within different sectors and classes. Even if you only have a moderate amount of money to invest, because the entry price for crowdfunding is so reasonable, this gives you the opportunity to diversify where your money is going.

Stability

No investment is completely stable, but when compared to traditional stocks and bonds, a CRE crowdfunded investment offers more stability because it’s not at the mercy of the stock market. Yes, other factors within the economy will certainly impact the value of the property, among other things; however, this is rarely an overnight change and can usually be predicted well in advance.

The Cons –

Longer-Term Commitment

When using crowdfunding to invest in commercial real estate, you’ll need to abide by your operating agreement. Usually when you invest, you have to lock this in for a set period of time. Sometimes this is several months, other times it’s several years. No matter how you look at it, crowdfunding investments are not easy to liquidate. They take time – and time isn’t always something people have, especially when it locks away cash that could be needed elsewhere.

Little to No Say in the Property

In the pros section we mentioned how CRE Crowdfunding gives you more control; however it’s important to note that really only pertains to your money. When it comes to the actual investment property, you have little to no say in the project. As a smart investor, you should do your homework to be sure you agree with the plans for the property and how it will be managed. Because after you invest, your opinion will most likely not be solicited.

The Unknowns

CRE crowdfunding most certainly has its risks. If you can tolerate these risks, then there is the potential for a high reward. A lot of the risks revolve around the unknown. Will the project stay on budget? Will it be completed on time? Will the property be managed as intended? Will the predictions and assumptions for the investment hold true? If you don’t like the risk and worry of the unknowns, CRE crowdfunding could really weigh you down.

Fees, Fees and More Fees

One final con is that there are a lot of hidden fees that could catch you off guard. The crowdfunding platform itself will apply fees to your investment. This varies from platform to platform, so be sure to read the fine print. Additionally, the investment property may also slap on additional costs for things like a construction fee, management fee, etc. Again, be sure to closely and carefully read every piece of your operating agreement because this is where you should uncover these fees before you sign on the dotted line.

The real takeaway here is that, like anything, crowdfunding for commercial real estate has its ups and downs. A smart investor will closely consider each side and weigh the risk versus the reward. Even with its cons, crowdfunding is a valuable investment opportunity that cannot be ignored, especially if you’re looking for ways to diversify your investment portfolio.

How do you feel about crowdfunding for commercial real estate? Is there something we missed on our list? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

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6 Things in 2018 that Should Have Commercial Real Estate Agents Feeling Grateful

Posted on November 13, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Commercial Real Estate, CPBJ Articles, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Note: This article was published by the Central Penn Business Journal. Click here to read the original version.

It’s about that time when people start to reflect upon the last year, making note of progress that has been made, and milestones that have been achieved. In light of the Thanksgiving holiday, there are certain things that should have commercial real estate agents, in particular, feeling grateful for what 2018 has brought with it.

Here’s a look at six things that should have CRE professionals giving extra thanks this year – and looking to 2019 with high expectations.

Interest rates are still historically low.

Yes, interest rates are indeed rising and people are panicking over them reaching 6%, but keep in mind that we are still way below the average rate of the last 47 years at 8.35%. Furthermore, recent gauges of U.S. inflation signify little need for the Fed to change its slow-but-steady stance on interest rate hikes at this juncture, so we don’t expect this to jump up several points overnight. Plus, there are a lot of other factors working in the economy’s favor like…

Unemployment hit a 49-year low.

It’s the headline you’re seeing smattered across every major news publication – the U.S. unemployment rate reached 3.7 percent in September — the lowest it has been since December 1969. What’s more, the job market is so tight that the amount of available jobs far exceeds the number of people seeking employment! Employers reported more than 7 million unfilled jobs in August, the highest level since record-keeping began in 2000.

Demand for industrial space remains strong.

In Central PA, 2018 brought with it an increasing demand for industrial real estate. The third-quarter saw rent grow hit 6.9%. When compared to the historical average of just 1.9%, it’s easy to see how this boom in demand for industrial space is an exciting new trend for our local economy, particularly because we are poised to welcome more and more warehousing and distribution companies to the area.

Sales of multifamily real estate hits record high.

In the third-quarter, multifamily real estate sales set a new record with the all-time high of $160.6 million. This same sector set another record this year in the second-quarter with an all-time low vacancy rate of 4.3%. With just two numbers, 2018 paints the picture of Central PA’s thriving commercial real estate market, particularly in the multifamily sector.

The Fed raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year.

At its September policy-setting meeting, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates for a third time this year. While to some a rate increase may not be something that has you feeling grateful, this is yet one more indication of a healthy, growing economy that can sustain such an increase. Furthermore, forecasters contend that unless inflation picks up or the economy starts slowing, the federal funds rate, which is currently between 2 percent and 2.25 percent, should continue to head higher.

New industries are expanding their commercial real estate.

The sixth and final thing that should have commercial real estate agents feeling grateful this year is healthcare mergers. Why? Because this is shaking up the way healthcare systems are approaching real estate. Across the region, the Commonwealth and nationwide we are seeing mergers taking place between healthcare systems small and large. All of this “teaming up” is causing a change in the way these organizations are using commercial real estate. In some instances, such mergers call for consolidating medical office space to reduce redundancy. In other instances, more space is needed to break into new markets or regions. This burst of acquisitions and activity spurs growth and fuels CRE sales.

Gratitude…and Caution

It’s important to note, this is the highlight reel from 2018. The CRE market has certainly experienced both its ups and downs in the various sectors of retail, office and industrial real estate. What’s most important is to take all good news, and bad news, with a grain of salt and know that what goes up, will eventually come down – whether that’s next quarter, next year or next decade.

For now, we can slide into the holiday season feeling grateful for these “gifts” the market has given us this year and enter 2019 cautiously optimistic.

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Central PA Office Submarkets End Quarter with Very Different Outcomes

Posted on November 8, 2018 by Mike Kushner in Blog, Local Market, Trends No Comments

Lancaster closes Q3 with the strongest market while Harrisburg West shows signs of distress.

The submarkets that make up Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate market each have unique advantages and disadvantages that really show through when you examine each individually. With the close of the third-quarter, we took a closer look at how the four main submarkets performed individually and comparatively.

The outcomes should surprise you! You may think you know which of the four submarkets outperformed the others, which one is most likely in distress and the others that are sitting pretty stagnant right now. But you’ll likely be shocked by the large variances in numbers, especially when compared to the historical averages and forecasted averages of what is yet to come.

Let’s take a closer look at some of the most interesting trends and numbers reported from CoStar’s Q3 2018 office report for Harrisburg East, Harrisburg West, Lancaster and York.

Harrisburg East

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Harrisburg East submarket is 6.4%. This is notably lower than the historical average of 7.8% and the forecast average shows this dipping lower to 5.7%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q4 2012 when it reached 10.8% and the trough was in Q4 1997 when it plummeted to 3.1%.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 106,000 square-feet. While this is still lower than the historical average of 187,046 square-feet, the forecast average predicts the current net absorption will fall significantly to 61,648 square-feet. Though not by much, net absorption will at least remain in the black for now.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 2.0%. This is higher than the historical average of 1.4%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.7%. For comparison, the peak in Harrisburg East’s rent growth occurred in Q1 2001 when it reached 8.3% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -2.4%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Harrisburg East has a twelve-month delivery of 30,000 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 20,000 square-feet of 4 and 5 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Harrisburg West

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Harrisburg West submarket is 7.3%. This is slightly higher than the historical average of 7.0%; however, CoStar’s forecast average predicts this to dip to 5.6%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q2 2002 when it reached 9.8% and the trough was in Q4 1997 when it plummeted to 2.5%.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is negative 258,000 square-feet. The historical average is 95,454 square-feet and the forecast average predicts the market will again return to positive numbers with 25,193 square-feet. Q3 net absorption is not far from where it was in Q4 2014 when it was negative w 292,042 square-feet. Since then, it peaked in Q3 2016 at 611,057 square-feet before falling substantially to its current negative state.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 1.9%. This is higher than the historical average of 1.4%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.6%. For comparison, the peak in Harrisburg West’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 7.1% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -2.8%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Harrisburg West has a twelve-month delivery of 40,000 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 127,660 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 26,400 square-feet of 3 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Lancaster

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the Lancaster submarket is 3.6%. This is notably lower than the historical average of 6.8%; the forecast average predicts this remain fairly stable at 3.7%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q4 2004 when it reached 9.7%. The lowest the vacancy rate has ever been in Lancaster County is actually right now, in Q3 2018.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 324,000 square-feet. The historical average is substantially lower than what it is currently and that is 109,103 square-feet. The forecast average predicts net absorption will decrease to 89,086 square-feet.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 4.9%. This is significantly higher than the historical average of 1.3%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 1.6%. For comparison, the peak in Lancaster’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 6.9% and the trough was in Q4 2009 when it plummeted to -5.0%.

12 month deliveries in SF – Lancaster has a twelve-month delivery of 12,000 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 114,237 square-feet. This takes into account all of the deliveries that occurred over the last year; however no new buildings were delivered specifically in Q3 2018. Additionally, 81,840 square-feet of 4 and 5 star office space is under construction, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

York

Vacancy – The vacancy rate for Q3 2018 in the York submarket is 5.3%. This is lower than the historical average of 6.9%; the forecast average predicts this remain fairly stable at 5.4%. For comparison, the peak in vacancy rate occurred in Q1 2008 when it reached 10.5%. The lowest the vacancy rate has ever been was 2.2% in Q4 1998.

12 Month Net Absorption in SF – The twelve-month net absorption is 29,500 square-feet. The historical average is 72,892 square-feet. The forecast average predicts net absorption will decrease to 8,847 square-feet.

Rent Growth – The current 12 month rent growth is 1.6%. This is fairly close in line with the historical average of 1.1%, though the forecast average predicts that this will fall to 0.6%. For comparison, the peak in York’s rent growth occurred in Q3 2000 when it reached 6.8% and the trough was in Q3 2009 when it plummeted to -4.3%.

12 month deliveries in SF – York has a twelve-month delivery of 0 square-feet, compared to the historical average of 80,056 square-feet. The forecast average predicts that this rise to 13,093 square-feet. Additionally, 22,000 square-feet of office space is under construction, 17,000 square-feet of 4 and 5 star space and 5,000 square-feet of 3 star space, which will be delivered in coming quarters.

Key Takeaways

Overall, York County and Harrisburg East have been very stable. Not much is moving the needle. There is not a lot of absorption nor much new construction that could spur activity.

The real positive news from Q3 2018 is Lancaster County. This submarket rose above the rest for several reasons. First is its 324,000 square-feet in net absorption and 4.9% rent growth (highest since Q3 2003). Additionally the vacancy rate decreased 2.3%. Currently there are 81,840 square-feet under construction and 89,166 square-feet of new construction proposed.

In contrast, the Harrisburg West submarket is showing signs of distress. Its negative 282,000 square-feet of net absorption combined with a modest vacancy rate increase of 1.6% does not offer much hope for a major turnaround anytime soon. Additionally, the submarket has 86,400 square-feet of new office space under construction and 225,596 square-feet of proposed new space that the market will struggle to absorb, further driving down the net absorption.

Based on the activity taking place in Central Pennsylvania’s office real estate submarkets, how do you think this will impact business growth and development throughout these counties? How will this have a ripple effect into other areas of our economy?

Share your ideas by leaving a comment below!

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